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Building a 2019 super-pen

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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#61

Posted: October 23, 2018, 9:37 AM Post
Posts: 10423
I just don't get wanting a guy like Patrick Corbin. We are returning every single pitcher pretty much PLUS we are adding full years from the young guys AND Nelson will return in some form. The same pitching that steamrolled through September and October, BUT we still couldn't make it to the World Series let alone win it!

You have to score runs for that pitching to even matter! We had guys pitch like they were Patrick Corbin and we still failed in the end. We have the pitching to win it all, we need a more balanced line-up and more offense in general.

To not stray off topic I will leave it at that.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#62

Posted: October 23, 2018, 2:22 PM Post
Posts: 3239
MrTPlush said:
I just don't get wanting a guy like Patrick Corbin. We are returning every single pitcher pretty much PLUS we are adding full years from the young guys AND Nelson will return in some form. The same pitching that steamrolled through September and October, BUT we still couldn't make it to the World Series let alone win it!

You have to score runs for that pitching to even matter! We had guys pitch like they were Patrick Corbin and we still failed in the end. We have the pitching to win it all, we need a more balanced line-up and more offense in general.

To not stray off topic I will leave it at that.



Because I don't think throwing out #4-5 starters minus Nelson(with whom their are enormous question marks given the nature of his injury....I'd be far more confident if he were coming back from a TJ injury) is a sustainable road to success. What's more, if you're moving Woody, Burnes and Peralta into your rotation, what type of BP do you really have next year? We all know how volatile relievers are. Would ANYONE be surprised if Jeffress posts an ERA of 4 next year? Or if Knebel loses it? So you add that to a weakened BP and what WAS the strength of this team is now a enormous weakness(potentially).

Couple that with the fact that I believe we have a difference making bat on it's way up and will be up next year and COULD be a ROY candidate and I'm not sure where we add this bat? 1st, SS, 3rd are all covered, be it Braun/Aguilar, Arcia/Dubon and Shaw. 2nd base should be fine if we keep Schoop, if we go with a Perez/Dubon combo until Hirura gets ready...

Adding a Catcher would be nice, but expensive and I don't see that massive upgrade unless we end up with Realmuto which wouldn't really impact our payroll that significantly anyway....but I'm not sure how we get him now without giving up one of the young pitchers we're counting on or Hirura. Our OF is loaded with Yelly, Braun, Cain, Santana and I'll even throw Broxton into the mix. So I'm not sure where we're going to pick up this impact bat to a lineup that was already second in the league in HR's.


On the flip side, I think I spelled out already why I'd want Corbin. He's a legit ace. A lefty with a wipeout slider who we could pair with Nelson, another potential ace, Chacin as our 3 and then still keep some of our talented arms in the BP and build off that strength.


All of that and our offense was 2nd in HR's, 1st in Stolen Bases and 4th in OPS. So I'm not seeing where that's the problem. We're in the world series if Jeffress doesn't blow game 2 or if we can move a guy from 2nd and no outs over and then in.

PLUS...while trying to not get too long winded, the impact players this off-season are Machado...who'd be a great addition, but I don't like the guy and he cost the Dodgers in our series by just not running, Harper who I love....but again, we don't really have a spot for with our crowded OF and both are likely to get double what Corbin is going to get.


So our offense was actually better than our pitching this year and I'm not counting on another Wade Miley to come throw and I just believe that BP is THAT much better if you have two guys atop your rotation who you can count on to give you 6-7 innings every 5th day(and the fact he's a lefty).


I guess give me an alternative to adding to this team that you think would be more beneficial while being realistic? I think Mark A would be willing to pony up for a guy like Corbin, but I don't think he or anyone on here wants to go 10 years and 300-400 million for one of the top two position players available.

Next Sept Lineup
1-Cain
2-Hirura
3-Yelich(L)
4-Aguilar
5-Shaw(L)
6-Braun
7-Catcher, probably Pina
8-Arcia

Rotation
1-Corbin(L)
2-Nelson
3-Chacin(who I'm also not confident in him duplicating his perforamance and I'd actually like to sell high on but doubt it)
4-Burnes
5-Peralta
BP
This is always a question mark. You seldom know how guys will respond year after year...but as of NOW..
Knebel
Hader
Woodruff
Jeffress

And not only am I forgetting a couple guys, but I'm sure we'll add guys. But my point is, if you're going to move all these guys into the rotation, you go from having a dominant pen to a question mark in the pen. And maybe Brown, Diplan, Ponce, Houser and those guys will force their way in....But I just don't see this team significantly improving(and one could argue they don't NEED to significantly improve their peronsonel given they won 100+ games this year).


Long story short, this offense was pretty good all year long and I'm more confident that the offense will be able to continue to produce than I am that our starting pitchers will and I'm not gonna let game 7 of the NLCS when we faced a filthy young ace in Buehler and then Jensen and Kershaw to overshadow what they did as a whole during the year.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#63

Posted: October 23, 2018, 2:23 PM Post
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Posts: 1589
Our Super-Pen will be without QTC who will be out all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery:

@Haudricourt
Big development from #Brewers farm system: LHP Quintin Torres-Costa, who had big year for @skysox, has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season. Was one of players eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. Injured in final series of year.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#64

Posted: October 23, 2018, 2:28 PM Post
Posts: 3239
I'll just add ONE more thing. There was no NEED for the Astros to go out and add a guy like Cole to their rotation this year....a rotation that still would have been 5 GOOD starters deep and coming off a WS title...but they found the most talented arm available and targeted him. I guess I'm just of the belief that there's nothing wrong with building upon a area of strength by making it that much stronger....especially when I can't find a fit in our lineup or a player that I can see making that type of impact sans MAYBE Realmuto..and his stock is higher now than ever and I don't believe they trade him without one of Burnes/Hirura/Peralta/ or a slew of talented prospects in the 6-15 range in our system.

And if Yelich doesn't struggle in the post-season, we're likely playing tonight in Boston...so I see your point, I just don't agree with it in this particular scenario. If we were talking about Darvish or Arietta from last year, or Happ or whoever makes it this year, I'd agree. But I think Corbin's an ace and I believe he'll only pitch better the next 2-3 years.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#65

Posted: October 23, 2018, 2:38 PM Post
Posts: 3973
Location: Madison, WI
Good write up, nothing crazy and all makes sense as a reasonable take.

My disagreement would be: First, I would disagree that the offense was good all year long. It had the bouts of shutouts all year. Two players on the whole team were consistent all year. Well, I guess Shaw too but he's consistently just ok and consistently can't hit lefties. this was the weakness of the team all year and it came back to bite them at the worst time.

Second, Corbin had one awesome year in a contract year. We talk of the volatility of relievers, but trusting a SP due to one good season as a "legit ace" as described here is a bit much. Now he's about to be 30 and we're going to pay him into his mid 30s based off that year, I'm skeptical on that being a smart move given our financial situation. The two years before he had an over 5 and over 4 ERA. The safer spend of the money is on hitting and then hoping our legit talent P prospects can provide low 3s ERAs especially since they'll likely be getting pulled a touch early before getting in trouble.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#66

Posted: October 23, 2018, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 10423
We were #6 in MLB this year for team ERA....how much more can we improve. We will already see improvement from all the full years of guys who came up mid way in the year.

The Houston Astros on the other hand were #11 in 2017...I can see improvement there when they had the #1 offense in all the land scoring a ridiculous 5.54 runs a game. Of course they were going to upgrade there pitching. Hard to reason improving that offense.

I think trying to fix a vulnerable #12 offense is easier than trying to improve on a #6 pitching staff. That was our rankings this year.



THAT being said I fully support making sure this pen is the best in all the land. Having an elite pen every year will make us almost unbeatable in a WC or NLDS setup...that's what is so bright for us in the near future.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#67

Posted: October 23, 2018, 7:53 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 9493
jjgott said:
Our Super-Pen will be without QTC who will be out all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery:

@Haudricourt
Big development from #Brewers farm system: LHP Quintin Torres-Costa, who had big year for @skysox, has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season. Was one of players eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. Injured in final series of year.


Geez, what a blow............................that blows!


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#68

Posted: October 24, 2018, 8:36 AM Post
Posts: 137
turborickey said:
jjgott said:
Our Super-Pen will be without QTC who will be out all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery:

@Haudricourt
Big development from #Brewers farm system: LHP Quintin Torres-Costa, who had big year for @skysox, has undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season. Was one of players eligible for Rule 5 draft this winter. Injured in final series of year.


Geez, what a blow............................that blows!


My feeling on this exactly.
I was high on this being one of the AAA rubber arms that comes up and goes down due to all the options.
He was ready to come in and be an interchangeable LHP with X and now Dan Jennings returning has merit. Yuck.

Baseball-reference.com had the MKE bullpen as a -1.8 WAA due in part to Jennings' 72!! appearances.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#69

Posted: December 13, 2018, 4:21 PM Post
Posts: 643
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.


Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#70

Posted: December 13, 2018, 4:26 PM Post
Posts: 4212
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.


Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.


Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#71

Posted: December 13, 2018, 4:35 PM Post
Posts: 643
KeithStone53151 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.


Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.


Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.


The quote you're referring to isn't the one I am. I'm referring to this...

GM David Stearns on whether young pitchers Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff would be considered in pen if didn't make rotation in camp: "We're open to anything. We are continuing to blur the lines between starting and relieving."


There's no stretching needed there. Stearns is laying it right out there for all of you.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#72

Posted: December 13, 2018, 4:38 PM Post
Posts: 643
I was being conservative saying he mildly confirmed it. I did so because I realize there will still be doubters until the season arrives and the piggybacking is on full display.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#73

Posted: December 13, 2018, 4:40 PM Post
Posts: 4212
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.


The quote you're referring to isn't the one I am. I'm referring to this...

GM David Stearns on whether young pitchers Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff would be considered in pen if didn't make rotation in camp: "We're open to anything. We are continuing to blur the lines between starting and relieving."


There's no stretching needed there. Stearns is laying it right out there for all of you.


So your bold quote = we will definitively scrap the 5 man rotation to open 2019? Reeeeeeeeeeally? We'll see if you're right. I saw you patting yourself on the back in an old, closed thread...just because you guessed correctly that we would either keep Jennings/Cedeno or add a LHRP(which was super obvious btw) doesn't mean you are right about everything.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#74

Posted: December 13, 2018, 4:55 PM Post
Posts: 643
Time will tell. It's all happening just as I spelled it out. If anything it's accelerating faster than I expected.

And the post of mine I quoted wasn't done to show being right about the LHP addition, it was to re-illustrate how a staff comprised primarily of multi-inning pitchers would look in 2019. They needed another multi-inning lefty and it looks like Claudio will be that guy.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#75

Posted: December 13, 2018, 9:58 PM Post
Posts: 16370
KeithStone53151 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen.

The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.


Mildly confirmed / alluded to today by Stearns.


Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.


But he DID literally say that they will continue to blur the line between starter and reliever.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#76

Posted: December 13, 2018, 10:17 PM Post
Posts: 643
adambr2 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Mildly confirmed...that's some kind of stretch. I saw the same quote, he didn't even remotely confirm anything. The only thing he did was leave open the possibility of any of those guys either starting or relieving.


But he DID literally say that they will continue to blur the line between starter and reliever.


Exactly, thank you. If anything I was holding back so as not to stir the naysayers. I'm still waiting for my stalker to show up and tell me how wrong I am. When Stearns comes right out and states these things it does tend to make things easier.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#77

Posted: December 14, 2018, 12:07 AM Post
Posts: 4212
Location: New Berlin, WI
So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#78

Posted: December 14, 2018, 6:39 AM Post
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Posts: 6717
KeithStone53151 said:
So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.


I think you are likely right. The Brewers will likely have more relievers capable of going multiple innings than most teams, but that is a result of Counsell's preference for early hooks than any sort of groundbreaking change in philosophy. Most teams see middle relief as an area to hide their worst pitchers. It's obvious that the Brewers disagree.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#79

Posted: December 14, 2018, 8:03 AM Post
Posts: 489
I have mlb network radio on in the background a lot during the day. They interview a lot of GMs and mangers. They ask almost every single one of them how they feel about the opener/bullpenning.

Most will say that they don't think it's sustainable over the course of the season and that the only way to be able to do it is to have a very deep staff and have multiple guys with options where you can continue to cycle through them. Well, the Brewers had that type of squad last year and should have that again in 2019. While it mostly looked traditional in 2018 with starters starting and throwing a bulk of the innings it did start to trend on bullpen heavy. Early hooks for starters, longer stints for relievers.

The Brewers have 17 pitchers on the 40 man roster who have already shown they can contribute on the mlb roster and many of them still have options. They're a team who can afford to be creative. I think they push it a little further in the regular season in 2019 than they did in 2018.


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Offline  Re: Building a 2019 super-pen
#80

Posted: December 14, 2018, 9:57 AM Post
Posts: 643
KeithStone53151 said:
So you mean they are going to have something in between a 1 inning reliever and a starting pitcher. I wonder if they are referring to...multi-inning relievers. Ill leave this sit for now, and be sure to bring it back up when the season starts and we have a standard 5 man rotation.


Looking forward to it. Stearns has now alluded to tandems, piggybacking, and blurred lines between starters and relievers at least twice this offseason. Everything he's saying and doing is lining up exactly with what I said would happen. And there's no room on a staff set up this way for pitchers who typically face a batter or two at a time.


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