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Dodgers v Brewers

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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 7:12 AM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
It would help you lay off a breaking pitch and get the count in your favor though. With how good our P has been it's tough to think this has affected too much. however, one person this could have really come into play is vs Jeffress, there was always runners on and he has four pitches, and they laid off pitches barely off the plate. Some incredible takes vs him. I remember people speculating at the time with Jeffress.

I think I saw something yesterday that teams coming home down 3-2 have still won 44% of the series. Not dead yet, get the W today and anything can happen.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 7:19 AM Post
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Well the 44% thing shouldn't be all that surprising. Every series that goes to 6 games is 3-2. It is as close as it can be. It just feels worse when it starts 2-1 in your favor.


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Online  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 7:25 AM Post
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Location: Three Lakes, WI
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Well the 44% thing shouldn't be all that surprising. Every series that goes to 6 games is 3-2. It is as close as it can be. It just feels worse when it starts 2-1 in your favor.


Is it just me, but has this series seemed like it's gone on for about 3 weeks already? So many emotional highs and lows. It seems like Woody hit that HR off Kershaw in June!


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:12 AM Post
Posts: 1340
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Honestly if we're really looking at a way to get Granderson multiple at-bats in one of these games, it should probably be at the expense of out coldest hitter. And that player is likely to win the 2018 National League MVP. I know we're all waiting for Yelich to break out of it ... but time is running out.

But no, Braun isn't sitting. If he was comfortable getting a game in at 1B, though, we could play him there, and have the ice-cold Aguilar take a seat in one of these games.

Or I guess we'll just have to depend on Grandy to come up big in his final two at bats in the next two games.


I agree about Aguilar but I don't see Braun at 1B as an option they're considering. There was no way they were going to commit to getting him reps there once Aguilar started mashing and Thames got over his thumb injury, and now he would be too rusty.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:16 AM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
Again, this is only relevant in game 7. Get real desperate, Braun at 2B to start in Game 7. I mean, 2B plays half the game in RF anyway at this point. Once Buehler is out swap in Shaw for Grandy. I know it's not gonna happen.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:20 AM Post
Posts: 1340
homer said:


This is your evidence:

Braun has been swinging away at the first pitch at the worst possible time on a regular basis and has taken 58 pitches this series by my count. That's less than 3 per plate appearance. Granderson is a more disciplined hitter whose approach translates better to postseason baseball, and even his regular season production has been every bit as good as Braun's for 2 years now. He's taken 17 pitches in just 3 appearances, made good contact on a regular basis, and nearly came up with one of the greatest clutch HR's in Brewers history in his first at-bat. He also has a lot more experience in RF than Braun, allowing Yelich to stay in LF.

It's not very convincing because it's all based on teeny, tiny samples. The team as a whole hasn't taken a lot of pitches so it stands to reason that's by design - attack early in the count. And if your argument is that a guy one time nearly hit a clutch home run so he should now start then I don't know what to tell ya.


It's a small sample, but a representative one. Braun has never been a patient hitter. He got away with it because of his raw talent in the past (although he would have been an even better player if he had drawn more walks in his prime) but not now. A lot of people are citing some hard-hit balls as evidence of his contributions, but at the expense of plate discipline, it's not worth it. That's like praising a good scorer in basketball who forces 6 shots he shouldn't every game, makes 2 of them on average - sometimes in sensational fashion - and therefore scores even more compared to everyone else on the team. The Brewers have a long history of needing better plate discipline, and it can't be easy to instill that when your highest-paid player won't do it.

And it's not even just about Braun. I realize people know I don't care for him and think that's why I'm saying it, but it seems very apparent to me that plate discipline is a huge problem in this series and that's why I want Granderson in there. He has been absolutely outstanding in that regard the whole time he's been with the team and it's what the Brewers need. So it's as much about him as it is about Braun, if not more so.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:24 AM Post
Posts: 1340
tmwiese55 said:
Again, this is only relevant in game 7.


Yes, but this is the series thread, not the game thread. I think it's a perfectly reasonable place to advocate more at-bats for Granderson, even if a few of them come at the expense of Braun. And it's not as that Braun wouldn't be a very valuable PH presence and likely get 2 pa's even if he didn't start. Hopefully he has some patient at-bats, works the count, and is rewarded for his discipline tonight to make it a moot point. I just haven't seen any evidence that he's doing that. Besides the low OBP, I think it has a negative trickle-down effect, like helping the Dodgers' excellent starters stay in the game longer.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:28 AM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
I really don't know how one can argue that an AB that ends in a hard hit is a bad result of an AB. It's not like you can magically trade off hard hits for walks or that there is a give/take relationship. I mean, it's not like one can really think that taking 6 pitches and striking/popping or weakly getting out is a better result to hitting the 2nd pitch really darn hard. The right argument would be that with more patience he'd increase his hard hit % even more and reduce his K rate. That's where he's been struggling. well actually K rate could go up due to more 2 strike counts now that I think about it. But yea point is he's chased too many breaking balls off the plate, just like everyone else on the team and what I've been saying in this thread.

And as someone pointed out, this has been a problem for the whole team so it seems like it was a coaching strategy to me. So again, tough to single him out when Cain has likely been the worst offender of this (at least relative to what we're accustomed to with Cain's patience).

ETA: Long story short, there just isn't a spot for Grandy to start so we're grasping at straws here. First, their starters lefties. Cain/Yeli just can't sit even though they've been bad. Braun hasn't been bad either and had an RBI double vs their righty for the game winning run in game 2. Braun plays better D and doesn't have drastic splits. It is what it is but I think it's really that simple unless you get weird with Braun going to 1B or 2B.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on October 19, 2018, 8:36 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:35 AM Post
Posts: 9786
I am a little tired of the constant "Well Braun hits it hard" excuse. This has been going on for two years now! At what point do we just accept the guy is unlucky or there is some other explanation on why he hits it hard at defenders. 250 games later and it is still the same broken record.

That being said I am starting Braun today and tomorrow, don't care. I am not even that big of a Braun fan, but for some reason I want him in there. I get the arguments to take him out, but I just think you start him.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
Yea generally agree on the it's two years, the hard hit % can only go so far. his spray chart shift is figured out, whatever it is. Results have to come at some point. But, Aug OPS was 843 and Sept was 991. That's where it came through and that's why you don't freak out after 3 games. Especially once you add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders his OPS isn't bad in these 8 games.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 1340
tmwiese55 said:

I think I saw something yesterday that teams coming home down 3-2 have still won 44% of the series. Not dead yet, get the W today and anything can happen.


No way anybody should be writing them off, that's for sure. It's excusable in the emotions of a gut-wrenching loss, but not now. However, given the Dodgers' starters the next 2 days, I'd put the Brewers' chances below 44%.

Another factor in that stat is that having home-field advantage in games 6 and 7 often means you were the more talented team all along, even if you fell behind 3 games to 2, but that's not really the case here. The talent isn't as far apart as some people make it out to be, but I do think the Dodgers have a little more of it. They've been building it up intelligently for years and have a huge payroll, whereas the Brewers were tanking a mere 2 years ago. I think the Brewers will have that much talent eventually, but I don't think they have it now.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:45 AM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
coolhandluke121 said:
tmwiese55 said:

I think I saw something yesterday that teams coming home down 3-2 have still won 44% of the series. Not dead yet, get the W today and anything can happen.


No way anybody should be writing them off, that's for sure. It's excusable in the emotions of a gut-wrenching loss, but not now. However, given the Dodgers' starters the next 2 days, I'd put the Brewers' chances below 44%.

Another factor in that stat is that having home-field advantage in games 6 and 7 often means you were the more talented team all along, even if you fell behind 3 games to 2, but that's not really the case here. The talent isn't as far apart as some people make it out to be, but I do think the Dodgers have a little more of it. They've been building it up intelligently for years and have a huge payroll, whereas the Brewers were tanking a mere 2 years ago. I think the Brewers will have that much talent eventually, but I don't think they have it now.


Yea, I agree with all this. Dodgers injuries held them back 5-7 games this year, they're the more talented team and normally they'd be the home field advantage. Yea I'd ballpark more like 33% or so to win. Two 50/50 chances in a row is 25%, so a bit better


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:46 AM Post
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Even if Braun is hitting it hard and not getting on, I still feel like most of the time he goes up there he's working a count and takes effort to get out. He's a ball player and they all get up there and hack from time to time, but it sure feels like he is a lot harder to get out than Aguilar who feels like watching a looped GIF.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:51 AM Post
Posts: 1340
tmwiese55 said:
I really don't know how one can argue that an AB that ends in a hard hit is a bad result of an AB.


I'm not really saying that. It's that being such an aggressive swinger is part of an overall strategy that, with a talented hitter, leads to more of every type of contact and more hits, but at the expense of walks and taking pitches, which is generally not a good trade-off. A guy who has fewer at-bats because a healthy percentage of his pa's end in walks is usually going to have fewer hard-hit balls simply because he has fewer at-bats, all else being roughly equal. So Braun's volume of hard-hit balls isn't the same as a good percentage, and more importantly on-base percentage is the one that matters most by far.

I'm fine with him in there, though everyone knows I prefer Granderson if they make it to game 7. This became a tense discussion because it seems some incredibly loyal Braun supporters need to silence anyone questioning Braun at all, which causes discussion to devolve into posters' feelings about Braun or about each other.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 8:58 AM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
tmwiese55 said:

I think I saw something yesterday that teams coming home down 3-2 have still won 44% of the series. Not dead yet, get the W today and anything can happen.


No way anybody should be writing them off, that's for sure. It's excusable in the emotions of a gut-wrenching loss, but not now. However, given the Dodgers' starters the next 2 days, I'd put the Brewers' chances below 44%.

Another factor in that stat is that having home-field advantage in games 6 and 7 often means you were the more talented team all along, even if you fell behind 3 games to 2, but that's not really the case here. The talent isn't as far apart as some people make it out to be, but I do think the Dodgers have a little more of it. They've been building it up intelligently for years and have a huge payroll, whereas the Brewers were tanking a mere 2 years ago. I think the Brewers will have that much talent eventually, but I don't think they have it now.


Given the starters for the next 2 days??? One is the guy the Brewers probably hit the hardest this series and the other is the guy they beat on the road.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 9:01 AM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
But Braun's vaunted stats are hard hit and line drive %s, it's not volume based. Basically saying when he puts the ball in play he still does it a top tier hard contact rate. It should go up even more though if he was more patient and more importantly (this is where you're right) his overall slash splits would increase because he'd take more walks instead of Ks or just outs in general regardless of how hard they're hit, plus he'd likely have more counts in his favor to hit balls hard even more often.

I really don't think we're are grasping at old Braun love, none of us are saying he's been great. Everyone is saying he's just been blah/ok/meh/fine. We're just saying he's been far from the worst here so it seems odd that he'd be the one benched. Plus, and I know this seems nostalgic to say, but he's still Braun and we saw that with how Kershaw pitched around him to get to Jesus then Jesus blew the scoring chance. In agreeance to your point though, the next AB Kershaw was trying to do it again and started 3-0, but Braun refused to take the walk. That's what he has to improve on. Somewhat it's just semantics/views in that you think we're apologizers for him and we think you're nitpicking him. Of course, I'm on side there and think that way because he really hasn't been that bad (especially relative to the rest of team) yet he's been singled out.

ETA: I know in past threads I've advocated turning BRaun into a top of order OBP/contact guy due to his drop in power. He would have to embrace it, take his walks, compact his swing, smaller bat, realize it's not his job to drive in runs etc. But i think he could thrive with a Cain style hitting approach but of course with less speed. He already has the opposite field approach/swing down. Just has to accept he's not a power hitter anymore and hopefully could scratch a good contribution the last couple years with this approach.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on October 19, 2018, 9:09 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 9:08 AM Post
Posts: 1340
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Even if Braun is hitting it hard and not getting on, I still feel like most of the time he goes up there he's working a count and takes effort to get out. He's a ball player and they all get up there and hack from time to time, but it sure feels like he is a lot harder to get out than Aguilar who feels like watching a looped GIF.


Yes, Aguilar is terrible right now. If Braun had more reps at 1B in recent months, that would be the obvious choice. But objectively Braun isn't really working counts though. Less than 3 pitches per plate appearance this series.

I just want to see Granderson more. He looks like such a poised, professional veteran out there compared to a lot of the Brewers' hitters. I tend to have a lot of confidence in him at the plate lately.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 1340
PlayerHader said:

Given the starters for the next 2 days??? One is the guy the Brewers probably hit the hardest this series and the other is the guy they beat on the road.


That stuff doesn't carry over game to game. That's not how baseball works. Ryu and Buehler are very talented starters. If the Dodgers were starting Hill in one of these games, I'd like the Brewers chances a lot more.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 9:15 AM Post
Posts: 1340
tmwiese55 said:

ETA: I know in past threads I've advocated turning BRaun into a top of order OBP/contact guy due to his drop in power. He would have to embrace it, take his walks, compact his swing, smaller bat, realize it's not his job to drive in runs etc. But i think he could thrive with a Cain style hitting approach but of course with less speed. He already has the opposite field approach/swing down. Just has to accept he's not a power hitter anymore and hopefully could scratch a good contribution the last couple years with this approach.


That's something that hardly anybody can disagree with. With his bat-to-ball ability, there's no reason he shouldn't be turning himself into a great singles/doubles hitter like prime Lucroy. We have never seen any indication that he's willing or interested in changing his approach though.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 11:15 AM Post
Posts: 1077
coolhandluke121 said:
PlayerHader said:

Given the starters for the next 2 days??? One is the guy the Brewers probably hit the hardest this series and the other is the guy they beat on the road.


That stuff doesn't carry over game to game. That's not how baseball works. Ryu and Buehler are very talented starters. If the Dodgers were starting Hill in one of these games, I'd like the Brewers chances a lot more.


You make a statement about not feeling good about today's games based on past performance and then tell me that stuff doesn't carry over game to game when I do the same thing.

Recent results are definitely useful indicators. You can certainly feel pessimistic about the Brewers chances, but be fair in your reasoning for being so.


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