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Dodgers v Brewers

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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 11:23 AM Post
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PlayerHader said:
coolhandluke121 said:
PlayerHader said:

Given the starters for the next 2 days??? One is the guy the Brewers probably hit the hardest this series and the other is the guy they beat on the road.


That stuff doesn't carry over game to game. That's not how baseball works. Ryu and Buehler are very talented starters. If the Dodgers were starting Hill in one of these games, I'd like the Brewers chances a lot more.


You make a statement about not feeling good about today's games based on past performance and then tell me that stuff doesn't carry over game to game when I do the same thing.

Recent results are definitely useful indicators. You can certainly feel pessimistic about the Brewers chances, but be fair in your reasoning for being so.


I think he is just saying that larger sample sizes tend to be more useful than small sample sizes in terms of indicating future results.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 11:43 AM Post
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Patrick425 said:
PlayerHader said:
coolhandluke121 said:

That stuff doesn't carry over game to game. That's not how baseball works. Ryu and Buehler are very talented starters. If the Dodgers were starting Hill in one of these games, I'd like the Brewers chances a lot more.


You make a statement about not feeling good about today's games based on past performance and then tell me that stuff doesn't carry over game to game when I do the same thing.

Recent results are definitely useful indicators. You can certainly feel pessimistic about the Brewers chances, but be fair in your reasoning for being so.


I think he is just saying that larger sample sizes tend to be more useful than small sample sizes in terms of indicating future results.


Sure. And over a 162 game sample size, this team showed itself to be better than our opponent.

It's easy to pick reasons to feel good or bad about tonight's game. Some people look for reasons to be pessimistic.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 12:00 PM Post
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PlayerHader said:
Patrick425 said:

I think he is just saying that larger sample sizes tend to be more useful than small sample sizes in terms of indicating future results.


Sure. And over a 162 game sample size, this team showed itself to be better than our opponent.

It's easy to pick reasons to feel good or bad about tonight's game. Some people look for reasons to be pessimistic.


Except Buehler and Ryu only pitched in 40 of their regular season games, and they're the starters the next 2 days. Only a few starters are going to pitch for each team, and the Dodgers have better ones. Miley and Chacin have earned some trust but Buehler and Ryu have better stuff and don't have the advantage of being pulled early for a great bullpen so often. Saying the Brewers have less than a 44% chance of winning the next two is not even close to being blind pessimism. It's just being realistic.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 12:31 PM Post
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Dude, you feel how you want. You ignore our rested BP which is better than Ryu or Buehler once twice through the order. I feel better about winning tonight than you do. My reasons are no less valid than yours. I'm ok with that.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 1:09 PM Post
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I think at this point it's safe to say that those are going to be negative have cemented their rationale for why they're negative, and those that are optimistic have done the same. Expecting to bring some new revelation to either group this afternoon that swings them to your side doesn't seem likely, IMO.

Me, I just plan on seeing what happens tonight.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 1:51 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
I think at this point it's safe to say that those are going to be negative have cemented their rationale for why they're negative, and those that are optimistic have done the same. Expecting to bring some new revelation to either group this afternoon that swings them to your side doesn't seem likely, IMO.

Me, I just plan on seeing what happens tonight.


Agreed. I'm not an optimistic homer, though. I know it's an uphill battle to win both days, but I also know we would have swept the series with simply a poor offensive performance rather than an absolutely dreadful one.

Work is done in a few minutes, though, and then time is REALLY going to slow down leading up to tonight's game.


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Online  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 6:16 PM Post
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If it helps, Ryu is a much better pitcher at home (1.15 ERA, .530 OPS against) than on the road. (3.58 ERA, .797 OPS against.)

Buehler's H/R splits aren't as significant, but still notable (1.93 ERA home, 3.45 ERA away, (.515 OPS vs. .603)

Bottom line either way we obviously need to hit the next couple games.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 11:18 PM Post
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Oh man, is Greg Amsinger being idiotic on MLB Network. He wants Hader to start Game 7 because he wants the Brewers pitcher with the best stuff going against Buehler, who has the best stuff on the Dodgers. Plesac and Reynolds are chiding him, saying the Dodgers would love that because it gets Hader out of the game within three innings.

Amsinger kept reiterating that Buehler has the best stuff on the Dodgers (which is not incorrect) and asked the two former players if they think Chacin can match him. Both of them without hesitation said yes. Amsinger had a non-verbal reaction like, "Oh man, I don't know about that."

Um, dummy, Chacin outpitched Buehler earlier in the series. Threw a shutout. Clearly he can match him.

Don't get me wrong - it is going to be REALLY hard to score against Buehler. He could easily run over us, making our strong bullpen meaningless. It is possible that Chacin has a bad game. Hell, he could just have an ok game and we could lose because Buehler is so good. But damn, Amsinger needs to settle down.


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Online  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 19, 2018, 11:20 PM Post
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Buehler is very good. He's not Max Scherzer.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 20, 2018, 12:21 AM Post
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Vegas has us as slight underdogs tomorrow


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 20, 2018, 1:00 AM Post
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Best game I've ever been to at MP. Hopefully holds that crown for a very short time.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 20, 2018, 8:29 AM Post
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dlk9s said:
Oh man, is Greg Amsinger being idiotic on MLB Network. He wants Hader to start Game 7 because he wants the Brewers pitcher with the best stuff going against Buehler, who has the best stuff on the Dodgers. Plesac and Reynolds are chiding him, saying the Dodgers would love that because it gets Hader out of the game within three innings.

Amsinger kept reiterating that Buehler has the best stuff on the Dodgers (which is not incorrect) and asked the two former players if they think Chacin can match him. Both of them without hesitation said yes. Amsinger had a non-verbal reaction like, "Oh man, I don't know about that."

Um, dummy, Chacin outpitched Buehler earlier in the series. Threw a shutout. Clearly he can match him.

Don't get me wrong - it is going to be REALLY hard to score against Buehler. He could easily run over us, making our strong bullpen meaningless. It is possible that Chacin has a bad game. Hell, he could just have an ok game and we could lose because Buehler is so good. But damn, Amsinger needs to settle down.


I don't think it's a crazy idea. I thought Hader might actually get a "start" during the playoffs at some point. Josh is pitching today, that's a guarantee, which specific innings he pitched I don't think matters all that much. I'd be fine with Hader getting 1-3, then Chacin for 4-6, and Jeffress and Knebel for 7-9.

As for Beuhler, he doesn't scare me any more than any other pitcher. I posted in the game thread yesterday that Ryu and Beuhler were the two pitchers we'd hit the "best" in this series. And we rocked Ryu again last night. This offense has the habit of lighting up aces and getting owned by scrubs.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 20, 2018, 8:33 AM Post
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Hader starting is getting too cute for me. The idea itself isn't terrible, but I don't like throwing a considerable curveball in his routine. I don't think Game 7 is the time to ask him to do something he has never done. I'm not the manager but I think I use him at the first high-leverage situation after the starter. Whether that is the 4th, 6th or 8th I don't care. And you throw him at least 2, hoping for 3 if he still has juice.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: October 20, 2018, 9:04 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Hader starting is getting too cute for me. The idea itself isn't terrible, but I don't like throwing a considerable curveball in his routine. I don't think Game 7 is the time to ask him to do something he has never done. I'm not the manager but I think I use him at the first high-leverage situation after the starter. Whether that is the 4th, 6th or 8th I don't care. And you throw him at least 2, hoping for 3 if he still has juice.


Fun to think about, but CC would laugh at that wouldn’t he. BP guys have a fairly important routine to follow.


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Offline  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: November 02, 2018, 5:32 PM Post
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Ennder said:
Samurai Bucky said:
Would this be the place to revise the "why didn't Arcia bunt" thread?


That was a pretty easy choice.

Assuming average players everywhere you expect to score at least 1 run 61.5% of the time with a runner and 2nd and no outs. That goes up to 66% with runner at 3rd and 1 out.

So assuming the bunt is successful you gain 4.5%. Now you take into account that Pina is a very slow runner and that margin goes down. Take into account that Arcia doesn't bunt very often and the successful odds are way under 100%. Then add in a high K guy coming up to bat against a high K pitcher which lowers the odds even more. There is almost no way him bunting in that situation is a net positive.

If it were say Broxton on 2nd and Cain was up next it makes total sense.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjYIjkccJDM

Counterpoint. Arcia is apparently a very good bunter per BA. 30 seconds in. Should have been in the WS.


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Online  Re: Dodgers v Brewers
Posted: November 02, 2018, 6:44 PM Post
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Counter Counterpoint. BA needs to shut up.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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