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Hader (as a starter, or not)

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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#21

Posted: October 21, 2018, 12:04 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Hader's role almost certainly isn't changing, and he has said himself he prefers his current role over starting.


I hadn't heard that. I guess if that's the case then I'm for just leaving him where he's at.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#22

Posted: October 21, 2018, 12:11 PM Post
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NievesNoNO said:
adambr2 said:
Hader's role almost certainly isn't changing, and he has said himself he prefers his current role over starting.


I hadn't heard that. I guess if that's the case then I'm for just leaving him where he's at.


I guess it's not the full blown endorsement of relieving that I remember but still sounds to me like a preference:

“I’m just trying to stay here and pitch as long as I can in the big leagues. If that’s starting or relieving, I’m in for whatever. They said I’ll stay with the role I had. I like coming in late in games but anything works for me as long as I’m able to pitch.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/m ... 070177001/


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#23

Posted: October 21, 2018, 4:45 PM Post
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I think the idea that Hader would struggle after 3IPs is absurd. Harping on his FB ratio is irrelevant to me when it fans numerous batters. Hes not seeing batters 2 and 3 times through. But he clearly has a good secondary pitch when he threw it. That pitch would be thrown more If he were starting and keeping batters guessing a 2nd and 3rd time throughthe order. How'd we do versus Kershaw? He certainly isnt bringing his FB at 94+ like I remember. That slurveball is all it takes to keep hitters off balance. Brewers bats got to see that pitch from Hill as well, it didnt help them hit that pitch. Theres too much respect on hitters here, when this game is at a low for hits to high strikeouts since before I was born or ever. I dunno. What was Hader at? 22pitches? For 3innings? Taking his ability to starting vs the ability of Brent Suter? You have to at least give it a shot. Aroldis Chapman got one, then he became the bullpen great. He's young and fireballing today. He has a long time to be a relief Ace. Starter he doesnt.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#24

Posted: October 21, 2018, 5:33 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
NievesNoNO said:
adambr2 said:
Hader's role almost certainly isn't changing, and he has said himself he prefers his current role over starting.


I hadn't heard that. I guess if that's the case then I'm for just leaving him where he's at.


I guess it's not the full blown endorsement of relieving that I remember but still sounds to me like a preference:

“I’m just trying to stay here and pitch as long as I can in the big leagues. If that’s starting or relieving, I’m in for whatever. They said I’ll stay with the role I had. I like coming in late in games but anything works for me as long as I’m able to pitch.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/m ... 070177001/


That was just him saying what he thought he should be saying. What he really thinks, we may never know.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#25

Posted: October 21, 2018, 6:04 PM Post
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I just think they aught to find out what he can do as starter. I mean I get it; 80-100 high leverage innings per year is a nice luxury but if he can be an above average starter for 180-200 innings that's more valuable. I know guys don't typically hit the 200 mark anymore but I just hate to never have known with him. If it doesn't work for him, you already know what he is in the bullpen. Even if he throws an average 3rd pitch I think he can be an above average starter.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#26

Posted: October 21, 2018, 6:10 PM Post
Posts: 15561
Don't know why he would say he likes coming in games late if he doesn't actually mean it. If he wanted to start but wanted to be a team player too he could easily just say "I'm on board with whatever is best for the team" and no one would give it a second thought.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#27

Posted: October 22, 2018, 9:50 AM Post
Posts: 405
brewcrewdue80 said:
I think the idea that Hader would struggle after 3IPs is absurd. Harping on his FB ratio is irrelevant to me when it fans numerous batters. Hes not seeing batters 2 and 3 times through. But he clearly has a good secondary pitch when he threw it. That pitch would be thrown more If he were starting and keeping batters guessing a 2nd and 3rd time throughthe order. How'd we do versus Kershaw? He certainly isnt bringing his FB at 94+ like I remember. That slurveball is all it takes to keep hitters off balance. Brewers bats got to see that pitch from Hill as well, it didnt help them hit that pitch. Theres too much respect on hitters here, when this game is at a low for hits to high strikeouts since before I was born or ever. I dunno. What was Hader at? 22pitches? For 3innings? Taking his ability to starting vs the ability of Brent Suter? You have to at least give it a shot. Aroldis Chapman got one, then he became the bullpen great. He's young and fireballing today. He has a long time to be a relief Ace. Starter he doesnt.


Largely due to the specialization and changed use of pitchers. You actually just showed how well limited repeat looks is working.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#28

Posted: October 22, 2018, 10:04 AM Post
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26 weeks in the season. If he pitches twice a week, going 2+ each for an avg of 5 innings, that is 130 innings pitched. A normal starter only gets 36 starts. With how Counsell handles starters, they rarely get more than 5 innings. That translates to 180 innings if you never miss one or have a short outing. Considering those 2 outings are generally high leverage and crucial to wins (not pitching in blowouts), losing those innings don't hurt much.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#29

Posted: October 22, 2018, 10:14 AM Post
Posts: 405
The assumption that a pitcher who exits a game after a dominant 3 inning stint would have continued to mow down batters will be the hardest notion to shed. The stats show the dropoff for most pitchers but plenty of people don't bother to look at the numbers.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#30

Posted: October 22, 2018, 2:55 PM Post
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Could you pair up Hader with Freddy Peralta and get 7 innings out of them every 4 days?


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#31

Posted: October 22, 2018, 3:06 PM Post
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Oxy said:
Could you pair up Hader with Freddy Peralta and get 7 innings out of them every 4 days?


Probably, but I think you're going to lose a lot of value limiting Hader especially to that limited of a role.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#32

Posted: October 22, 2018, 3:15 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
adambr2 said:
Don't know why he would say he likes coming in games late if he doesn't actually mean it. If he wanted to start but wanted to be a team player too he could easily just say "I'm on board with whatever is best for the team" and no one would give it a second thought.


I'm sure he does like it, and I'm sure he'd like starting too. those quotes were just saying the right thing, I want to help the team however they see fit. Especially as a young generally unproven player. That's what he should say publicly.

Behind the scenes after he's now established himself comes the real talk with the agent who sees Chris Sale with a 200 mil contract coming and Andrew Miller with a 4/36 and Chapman 5/86. Don't get me wrong, that's still a lot of money but it's logical to think his agent would advise that he should try to start at some point, if it doesn't work go back to this role.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#33

Posted: October 22, 2018, 3:17 PM Post
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We're making the mistake of thinking of starters the traditional way. What we could very well see is a continued expansion of the "out getters" approach.

"Start" Chacin, Anderson, Davies, maybe Gio..Nelson...who knows. Then in the "pen" Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Guerra. All guys capable of pitching multiple innings. If the starter has a lead after 4-5 innings, you can go to Hader/Burnes and win that game. Still have Knebel/ Jeffress to "close." If you're losing, go to Guerra. In theory, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta would get almost as many innings as they would being a starter, but used in games they're more likely to win.

I don't know if Stearns will take it that far, but I assure you they are looking at how to maximize these very talented young arms. They all need work with their off-speed pitches. Very often their curve or change is little more than a "get me over" pitch. It's all a work in progress. They all have 4-5 years of control left, so there's time to develop them into more traditional starters. Until then, we'll see what Stearns comes up with in his pitching lab.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#34

Posted: October 22, 2018, 3:45 PM Post
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I could see them doing something creative with the pitching staff, but over the course of the season it will have to be somewhat structured like what the Rays did with the opener where they knew who was the opener and who was the bulk guy.

Traditional starters: Chacin and Davies. They go every 5th day.

Piggyback/extended out-getters: Woodruff, Guerra, Burnes, Anderson, Nelson, Peralta. Pitch 1-2x through the order, but rarely come in for single innings. Available on 2-3 days rest depending on the player.

Short relievers: Knebel, JJ, Hader, Williams/Barnes/Albers/Houser/Depth piece.

The roles can be flexible and change as the season goes on and players develop. I don't know if the Brewers will get this creative, but with the depth of options they have before making any off season moves they can afford to be creative. Take those middle to back end rotation prospects and elevate their skills by only asking them to get 6-12 outs.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#35

Posted: October 22, 2018, 4:09 PM Post
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OldHeidelberg said:
I have been a proponent of making Hader a starter but the emergence of Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta has changed my mind. I had thought Hader was our only chance of developing our own ace but these guys have more upside than I gave them credit for at mid season. 2 months ago I thought we were in a 2-3 year window and needed to trade for a deGrom this offseason to maximize our chances. Not anymore, the future is very bright for this pitching staff, just need to fix that offense which is a little easier.


I agree that with other young starters ready to join the rotation, i'm fine with Hader staying in the pen.

Plus, today's baseball is just a different game from the past. Bullpens are as important or close to as important as a rotation is. Look at the Brewers this year. They won 96 games and would be in the World Series if they simply scored more than one run in a 13 inning game, even with a rotation where Chacin was their best starter.

Next year one of or both of Burnes/Woodruff will be added to the rotation, Peralta could be, and hopefully Nelson is good again. Remove Hader though from the pen and there is a chance that the bullpen goes from a huge strength to a question mark.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#36

Posted: October 23, 2018, 3:25 PM Post
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Stearns said today he is staying in the pen.

End of story


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#37

Posted: October 23, 2018, 3:33 PM Post
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Hader has a changeup. He used it very sparingly not because it's that bad a pitch, but because he didn't need it one time through an order. But he did use it a few times.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#38

Posted: October 23, 2018, 3:37 PM Post
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A little off topic, but I wonder how his arbitration process will go (won't have to worry until '21 I think). With the way the Brewers changed the game this year, I wonder if he will be paid like a traditional set up pitcher or if there will be more of a hybrid category that will allow him to get more money. Or maybe the Brewers should just get him signed for a couple years past arbitration and get hat over with.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#39

Posted: October 23, 2018, 3:40 PM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
The assumption that a pitcher who exits a game after a dominant 3 inning stint would have continued to mow down batters will be the hardest notion to shed. The stats show the dropoff for most pitchers but plenty of people don't bother to look at the numbers.


[url]https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=salech01&year=Career&t=p/[url]

Look for his stats on repeat through the order. Ops is always below .700. Lefty, high K rate. Mentioned just above on a 200million contract vs the 80-something mil given to Chapman. Lumping the stats for SPs and how the times faced/repeats, worsen is ignoring attempts of having a Chris Sale that doesnt follow that trend. The state of SPs not going deeper and Counsell's use on SPs not to see 180IP+ is also wrong as Chacin was 192? I believe this season. we celebrated the starts Chacin/Miley gave us during the Playoffs prior to game 7, being 5IP. 0ERs and such.
Why do we have to argue Hader from doing that seeing batters a 2nd/3rd time all because the stats show a decline by pitchers when doing so? Chacin just gave 192IP below 3.5ERA with Slider/FB as his go to pitches. Let Hader show himself if he's just another 1 time through the order stud and dud #s 2&3, or the next Chris Sale.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#40

Posted: October 23, 2018, 4:15 PM Post
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OnaBadger58 said:
A little off topic, but I wonder how his arbitration process will go (won't have to worry until '21 I think). With the way the Brewers changed the game this year, I wonder if he will be paid like a traditional set up pitcher or if there will be more of a hybrid category that will allow him to get more money. Or maybe the Brewers should just get him signed for a couple years past arbitration and get hat over with.

I don't see any way the Brewers could get away with low balling Hadar in arbitration by calling him just a traditional set up pitcher.

That said, as the game is changing in regards to how bullpen arms are being used, it can't only be closers with high save totals getting big money in arbitration, so some sort of model will have to be developed for guys like Hadar and other very good relievers who aren't just used as a closer with save numbers to compare to other closers.


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