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Hader (as a starter, or not)

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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#41

Posted: October 23, 2018, 6:30 PM Post
Posts: 405
Did someone just throw a link to Chris Sale's splits to refute the idea that the vast majority of MLB starting pitchers have a significant dropoff their 2nd and 3rd time through the order? No one ever said pitchers like that don't exist. There just so rare and coveted that a small market team doesn't have much chance of one being around very long. If you're lucky they become that dominant by your 3rd year of control. Then you have 3 more years to enjoy them before they're off to greener pastures. And that window you have them is only if they stay healthy. Rather than banking on getting a true unicorn of a pitcher like that, get ACE-like numbers from your entire staff by limiting them to 1-2 trips through.

This whole shift in usage is quite the paradox. The dominance these guys are showing via limited exposure has many of you thinking they'd keep right on mowing down batters if given 3 more innings. It doesn't work that way for so, so many reasons.

Btw, McCalvy has now twice hinted very recently that tandems are likely to be utilized in 2019, just as I predicted. Now why would they not push Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta to be possibly the next Sale, Clemens, Verlander, or Martinez? For one, they're not going to use pitchers that way going forward. Two, getting away from 35 starts and 200 innings will better protect their arms. And three, none are ready with their secondary stuff to be those guys and may never be. Peralta is the one of those 4 who actually has had success 3 times through. But why pursue the unicorn when you literally can replace them with just about any MLB pitcher for one time through and get better results than a 3rd time through with your initial out getter. I'll pull this out one more time. Every pitcher on the Brewers playoff roster had better stats their 1st time through a lineup than Ben Sheets career 3rd time through. That's the best pitcher the Brewers have developed in the last 20 years and you were still better off bringing in a fresh arm rather than giving batters a 3rd look at him.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#42

Posted: October 23, 2018, 7:40 PM Post
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Posts: 8768
Brewers GM David Stearns confirmed Tuesday that Josh Hader will remain in the bullpen in 2019.

Hader worked as a starter in the minors, but he has absolutely flourished in a relief role at the major league level, posting a 2.30 ERA, 0.876 WHIP, and 211 strikeouts across his first 129 innings with the Brewers. This announcement by Stearns comes as no surprise.


Source: Adam McCalvy on Twitter
Oct 23 - 4:02 PM


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#43

Posted: October 23, 2018, 10:28 PM Post
Posts: 26
I’d only be open to Hader being a starter if he can add a third pitch to his arsenal.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#44

Posted: October 25, 2018, 11:36 AM Post
Posts: 76
I think a better question is whether Hader ought to be a six-out closer? He’s dabbled in a role sort of like that, but other than brief periods, he’s never been the designated closer with Knebel in 2017 and Jeffress in 2018 assuming the closer roles.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#45

Posted: October 25, 2018, 12:46 PM Post
Posts: 366
Bob Skube Snacks said:
I think a better question is whether Hader ought to be a six-out closer? He’s dabbled in a role sort of like that, but other than brief periods, he’s never been the designated closer with Knebel in 2017 and Jeffress in 2018 assuming the closer roles.


Don't be a slave to the save. Counsell should continue to use Hader when it's most advantageous for the Brewers. Sometimes that will mean 1 inning. Sometimes that will be 2-3 innings. Sometimes the 5th inning. Sometimes the 9th.

Honestly, it would be great if they did the same thing with Knebel and JJ next season even though I imagine one of those two will settle into the traditional "closer role" at some point during the regular season.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#46

Posted: October 25, 2018, 1:02 PM Post
Posts: 76
Has nothing to do with saves. I think, as we found out a few times in the postseason, that the highest leverage moment is the 8th and 9th.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#47

Posted: October 25, 2018, 1:16 PM Post
Posts: 366
Bob Skube Snacks said:
Has nothing to do with saves. I think, as we found out a few times in the postseason, that the highest leverage moment is the 8th and 9th.


Would you rather have Hader come in for the 7th inning with a one run lead to face Votto, Gennett, and Suarez or have him come in for the 9th and face a PH, Hamilton, and Peraza?

Game situations should dictate how a reliever is used, not "just" because it's the 8th or 8th inning.

As you saw, sometimes Hader will pitch the 9th inning. Like game 163 vs the Cubs.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#48

Posted: October 26, 2018, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 76
long ball said:
Bob Skube Snacks said:
Has nothing to do with saves. I think, as we found out a few times in the postseason, that the highest leverage moment is the 8th and 9th.


Would you rather have Hader come in for the 7th inning with a one run lead to face Votto, Gennett, and Suarez or have him come in for the 9th and face a PH, Hamilton, and Peraza?

Game situations should dictate how a reliever is used, not "just" because it's the 8th or 8th inning.

As you saw, sometimes Hader will pitch the 9th inning. Like game 163 vs the Cubs.


I understand the argument, I just don’t entirely agree with it.

See NLDS Game 1 for an example. Hader kills off the last part of the 7th and 8th. Great, but then Jeffress allows two leadoff singles in the 9th and has to face the meat of the Rockies order anyway when he’s clearly not on his game. The Brewers were very fortunate to escape the 9th with just a tie game to contend with.

(And I know Jeffress was very good during the regular season, but I don’t think anyone would argue he’s better than Hader.)

I’d rather take the risk in the 7th, when you still have time to theoretically make up for any bullpen problems with your own lineup, than in the 9th, when you’ve burned your most dominant reliever and (maybe) have one turn at-bat to deal with it.

I want my most dominant reliever to kill the game when the game is there to be killed, not in a theoretic sense earlier in the game.

The Dodgers use Kenley Jansen in that traditional sense and it works just fine for them. It can work fine for us too with the relief corps we have.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#49

Posted: October 26, 2018, 12:27 PM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
Hader's multi inning ability makes it different though as you don't always know how long he'll be able to go. So if you bring him in planning for 2-3 innings to 'close' at the end. but then the pitch count gets high and you've already used the others (Knebel, Jeffress) then you're left with who knows what to finish it. So if you keep holding him to pitch 1 inning or maybe the last out or two of the 8th if lefties then you'll end up lowering his innings. Also, his multi inning usage makes him unavailable for days at a time, thus creating more variables. Personally I like what they did to start the year when Knebel was down, just go with who ever is fresh and based on matchups. Forget that Save is even a stat.

Also, his left handedness is a factor. you want to use him when the pile of lefties are up in a lineup to maximize his value, and you can't predict when that will be in a game. Also, if you bring him in earlier in the game and the other team then yanks all their lefties it provides Knebel/Jeffress an advantage later in that the lefties are out.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#50

Posted: October 27, 2018, 1:28 PM Post
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Posts: 2938
As far as money goes for Hader after his arbitration years (granted it's a while yet), I'd think he'd be in a better position to make the most money remaining as the game's elite bullpen guy than trying to be a starter, especially as the bullpen has taken on more importance around the league.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#51

Posted: October 27, 2018, 1:42 PM Post
Posts: 3050
Zero reason to make him a starter. We have plenty of young starting pitching options and Hader as a relieve is one of the top weapons in the game.

I’m surprised it’s even being considered.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#52

Posted: October 27, 2018, 2:17 PM Post
Posts: 15562
Boomer5 said:
Zero reason to make him a starter. We have plenty of young starting pitching options and Hader as a relieve is one of the top weapons in the game.

I’m surprised it’s even being considered.


It's not. They have already said he'll enter 2019 in the same role.


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Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#53

Posted: October 27, 2018, 3:44 PM Post
Posts: 6010
I'm awaiting the Braun to 3rd base thread .......haven't had one of those for a few months.....[smile]


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#54

Posted: October 27, 2018, 7:20 PM Post
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Posts: 8768
markedman5 said:
I'm awaiting the Braun to 3rd base thread .......haven't had one of those for a few months.....[smile]


As far as I can tell, there is only one poster on this entire site who thinks that is a good idea...


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#55

Posted: October 27, 2018, 7:33 PM Post
Posts: 3495
I could see Hader as an occasional "opener", pitching the first 2-3 innings vs a lefty heavy opponent, especially if we continue to build high level bullpen depth like I think we will. But as a traditional "starter"? No. I think the Brewers are going to move further away from the concept of starting pitchers anyways...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#56

Posted: October 29, 2018, 5:56 PM Post
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Posts: 1140
markedman5 said:
I'm awaiting the Braun to 3rd base thread .......haven't had one of those for a few months.....[smile]


Braun has proven he can't play 3rd. Hader, has not proven he can't start.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#57

Posted: October 29, 2018, 6:32 PM Post
Posts: 9787
3and2Fastball said:
I could see Hader as an occasional "opener", pitching the first 2-3 innings vs a lefty heavy opponent, especially if we continue to build high level bullpen depth like I think we will. But as a traditional "starter"? No. I think the Brewers are going to move further away from the concept of starting pitchers anyways...


I don’t see it, in the regular season. The Brewers would not dare do this with how reluctant they are to use him as is. He is lucky to get into an occasional tie game when it is late in the game. To use him to start a game for 2 innings? Yah, there just is no way...and I wouldn’t do it either.

The concept is intriguing, but not sure I buy how effective it would be over the long 162 game schedule.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#58

Posted: October 30, 2018, 6:03 AM Post
Posts: 4212
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Did someone just throw a link to Chris Sale's splits to refute the idea that the vast majority of MLB starting pitchers have a significant dropoff their 2nd and 3rd time through the order? No one ever said pitchers like that don't exist. There just so rare and coveted that a small market team doesn't have much chance of one being around very long. If you're lucky they become that dominant by your 3rd year of control. Then you have 3 more years to enjoy them before they're off to greener pastures. And that window you have them is only if they stay healthy. Rather than banking on getting a true unicorn of a pitcher like that, get ACE-like numbers from your entire staff by limiting them to 1-2 trips through.

This whole shift in usage is quite the paradox. The dominance these guys are showing via limited exposure has many of you thinking they'd keep right on mowing down batters if given 3 more innings. It doesn't work that way for so, so many reasons.

Btw, McCalvy has now twice hinted very recently that tandems are likely to be utilized in 2019, just as I predicted. Now why would they not push Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta to be possibly the next Sale, Clemens, Verlander, or Martinez? For one, they're not going to use pitchers that way going forward. Two, getting away from 35 starts and 200 innings will better protect their arms. And three, none are ready with their secondary stuff to be those guys and may never be. Peralta is the one of those 4 who actually has had success 3 times through. But why pursue the unicorn when you literally can replace them with just about any MLB pitcher for one time through and get better results than a 3rd time through with your initial out getter. I'll pull this out one more time. Every pitcher on the Brewers playoff roster had better stats their 1st time through a lineup than Ben Sheets career 3rd time through. That's the best pitcher the Brewers have developed in the last 20 years and you were still better off bringing in a fresh arm rather than giving batters a 3rd look at him.


Its a moot point at this moment with the declare Hader stays in bullpen in 19. It was mself that put up Chris Sale stats. Similar style/profile, has worked incredible for him. Did I say Hader will continue to mow down batters a 2nd/3rd time through? Hader's not perfect as a Reliever he didnt finish with a 0ERA. He doesnt have to mow down bats. Just rack up 0s and the occasional 1/2run innings. Im just advocating that hes tried as SP. Say he succeeds, going 6-8innings with a below 3ERA? Is it foolish to use him that way just because his 3rd time through the order "supposedly" would be worse than another RP picking up that time through? There are more ways to get outs than just via a strikeout. The fact that he Ks batters at such a high rate, giving up a higher OPS doesn't mean he'll give up runs. He can strand runners on base. Its a team game, he shouldnt have to always allow 3ERs or less every time he throws 6IP. The offense needs to score it's share of runs, and clearly have for SPs who can have have an ERA above 4, yet win 16 or 17 games that season.
Its a 25man roster, we lost in the NLCS due to offense not producing. How many pitchers do you need to carry to cover all these 2IP stints vs a starter giving nearly 200IP? How often are you using Hader effectively two times a week? Maybe 3? What when he has a poor outing? Doesnt go 2IP? It's odd that Ace type pitchers, it used to be get to them in the 1st inning, otherwise they find their groove suddenly go 6/7innings of shutout pitching. But then this style is addressing the 3rd time seen in an order when SPs should be giving up more runs....I gtg cant finish this rant be back another time.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#59

Posted: October 30, 2018, 8:10 AM Post
Posts: 11733
BrewFan130 said:
I’d only be open to Hader being a starter if he can add a third pitch to his arsenal.


He does have a changeup but he very rarely brings it out as a reliever. You really have to watch close, because it usually gets by the guys in the booth and he'll throw it like no more than once every 4 or 5 appearances. It's not a bad pitch either, but one time through the order there's no reason to bring it out.


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Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#60

Posted: October 30, 2018, 8:20 AM Post
Posts: 3650
Location: New Berlin, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
BrewFan130 said:
I’d only be open to Hader being a starter if he can add a third pitch to his arsenal.


He does have a changeup but he very rarely brings it out as a reliever. You really have to watch close, because it usually gets by the guys in the booth and he'll throw it like no more than once every 4 or 5 appearances. It's not a bad pitch either, but one time through the order there's no reason to bring it out.


It was pretty clear to me that Hader focused last offseason on his slider. The increased usage and effectiveness of that pitch in 2018 makes that pretty obvious in my opinion. I would like to think he'll do the same this offseason with his changeup. That said, he hasn't really shown great stamina and that could hold him back from being a SP. I would like to see them try him in the rotation, but with the other young guys we have coming through I can also understand keeping him in his current relief role.


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