LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  [ 77 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Hader (as a starter, or not)

Author Message
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#61

Posted: October 30, 2018, 2:05 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5641
Everyone understands that if Hader pitched 7 straight inning and faced guys 3 or 4 times he would not be as effective. No one thinks that if Hader has to face guys a 4th time his ERA would not increase. The point of debate is how to get the most value out of Hader.

Hader pitched 80 inning and put up 2.7 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. In both measures that is basically the same value as Chacin.

So, how bad is only having 2 pitches, is Hader going to become Manny Parra if hitter face him too often? Seems to me that are not maximizing Hader's talents and he should be pitching more innings, maybe not starting, but still I think his usage has room for improvement.

1 thing I would like to see if trying to use him more as a "LOOGY" in a big spot. I get he can pitch multiple innings but the times with late inning, bases loaded, 2 outs type situations I think we should have leaned on him a little more, even if he pitched 2 innings the day before. He can warm and throw 4 pitches to get us out of a big jam.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#62

Posted: October 30, 2018, 2:12 PM Post
Posts: 3873
topper09er said:
Everyone understands that if Hader pitched 7 straight inning and faced guys 3 or 4 times he would not be as effective. No one thinks that if Hader has to face guys a 4th time his ERA would not increase. The point of debate is how to get the most value out of Hader.

Hader pitched 80 inning and put up 2.7 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. In both measures that is basically the same value as Chacin.

So, how bad is only having 2 pitches, is Hader going to become Manny Parra if hitter face him too often? Seems to me that are not maximizing Hader's talents and he should be pitching more innings, maybe not starting, but still I think his usage has room for improvement.

1 thing I would like to see if trying to use him more as a "LOOGY" in a big spot. I get he can pitch multiple innings but the times with late inning, bases loaded, 2 outs type situations I think we should have leaned on him a little more, even if he pitched 2 innings the day before. He can warm and throw 4 pitches to get us out of a big jam.


Hader's use in 2018 was nearly perfect, IMO.

That said, I'd save the back-to-back stuff for playoffs. Wouldn't hurt to maybe try using him as the initial out-getter once or twice. The Crew would go to bat knowing Hader could shut the other team down for the first couple of innings and get a lead.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#63

Posted: October 30, 2018, 2:24 PM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
I think with the current roster and SP depth (assuming all guys are back and Burnes/Woodruff end up more like starters) that it is best for the team to use Hader similar to last year. Perhaps the year after if you lose a couple guys like Davies, Anderson or whoever then maybe it would be better to move him into a starter type role. So I'm on board with it from a team perspective. Any comments I made on the other side were more if his agent and himself desire trying to start to maximize future payday. Sounds like that's not a concern right now that we know of though, so proceed as is and look at again the year after. hopefully he continues working on the change up in the meantime.

My nitpick of the strategy if i had one though is that when he pitches 2-3 innings he's seemingly off limits for at least 2 days, sometimes 3. Well, then might as well just have him start and pitch 5-7 innings and be off 4 days. But again, the current roster and our yank SPs early strategy requires a multi inning guy or two like him so he's crucial for wins in this role.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#64

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:02 PM Post
Posts: 3650
Location: New Berlin, WI
topper09er said:
Everyone understands that if Hader[Insert any pitcher in the league] pitched 7 straight inning and faced guys 3 or 4 times he would not be as effective.


Fixed


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#65

Posted: October 31, 2018, 10:40 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5615
I think Hader's maximum value would be for him to become an ace starting pitcher, and I think that he could. That said, I do not see any way the Brewers will ever move him out of the bullpen. He has the potential to be Randy Johnson, but we will max out his potential at Andrew Miller.

With that in mind, I now turn my attention to Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and any future guys who have good potential as a starting pitcher. We can live with limiting the potential of one potential ace, but we need to put some of these guys into the rotation and stick with them through the ups-and-downs. I still like the thought of giving young guys a shot in the rotation and moving them to the pen only if they fail as starters far more than the thought of paying for "good enough" older starting pitchers and putting our good, young arms in the pen.

I hope that this year was an anomaly due to the situation, and it doesn't become the norm to say "we think he's a starter, but we need them in the pen for the playoff run," only to be followed up by "he's too valuable in his current role to take him out of it." We need some of these young guys to fill out our rotation for the foreseeable future, as we can't afford to pay the cost (in dollars and/or prospects) for starting pitching over the long-run through free agency and trades.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#66

Posted: October 31, 2018, 10:50 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5158
Location: Three Lakes, WI
monty57 said:
I think Hader's maximum value would be for him to become an ace starting pitcher, and I think that he could. That said, I do not see any way the Brewers will ever move him out of the bullpen. He has the potential to be Randy Johnson, but we will max out his potential at Andrew Miller.

With that in mind, I now turn my attention to Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and any future guys who have good potential as a starting pitcher. We can live with limiting the potential of one potential ace, but we need to put some of these guys into the rotation and stick with them through the ups-and-downs. I still like the thought of giving young guys a shot in the rotation and moving them to the pen only if they fail as starters far more than the thought of paying for "good enough" older starting pitchers and putting our good, young arms in the pen.

I hope that this year was an anomaly due to the situation, and it doesn't become the norm to say "we think he's a starter, but we need them in the pen for the playoff run," only to be followed up by "he's too valuable in his current role to take him out of it." We need some of these young guys to fill out our rotation for the foreseeable future, as we can't afford to pay the cost (in dollars and/or prospects) for starting pitching over the long-run through free agency and trades.


I agree with every word of this. Right down to the Andrew Miller comparison. The only difference is that Andrew Miller was at least given the opportunity to fail as a starter (which he did) before becoming a dominant reliever. If the Brewers never give Hader that opportunity, it is simply a waste in my opinion.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#67

Posted: October 31, 2018, 10:56 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2482
But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#68

Posted: October 31, 2018, 11:07 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1140
OldSchoolSnapper said:
But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.


I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#69

Posted: October 31, 2018, 12:36 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5615
NievesNoNO said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.


I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.


Agree. I believe that the Dodgers and Red Sox are fairly "stats driven," and I don't see them taking Buehler or Sale out of the rotation for 2019 to put them into the "Hader role" in the pen. The same can be said of every other team in baseball who has a good, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. That is arguably the most valuable commodity in baseball.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#70

Posted: October 31, 2018, 1:05 PM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
NievesNoNO said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.


I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.


Right, think of it this way. Is Chris Sale or prime Andrew Miller/current Hader more valuable? Clearly Sale. Miller/Hader or a mid level starting pitcher who's still good like IDK James Shields from a few years ago or Chris Archer? Well, then probably Miller.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#71

Posted: October 31, 2018, 1:16 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 10925
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Outs are the most important thing in baseball. Starters get more outs over the course of a season. If he can start and do it well, he should. That being said, he was so electric this season and with all of the other young arms itching to get in that rotation, I understand why they are doing what they are doing.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#72

Posted: October 31, 2018, 2:02 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5158
Location: Three Lakes, WI
tmwiese55 said:
NievesNoNO said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
But isn't there something to be said of Hader's value as a reliever? The obvious benefit there is that you don't start him every 5 days and use his outing on a day you win 8-1. I get that is a bit of a catch 22, but you don't get to be as selective with his innings.

I don't doubt that Hader can be a starting pitcher, but I am not convinced that he isn't more valuable in the bullpen.


I think those of us that think he should get the chance to start aren't sure either but you'll never know if you don't give him a chance. If he's just an average starter, then sure he's likely more valuable in the pen. I just don't like the "What If", in the back of my mind. What If: he's the next Jacob DeGrom. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Jacob DeGrom would be more valuable from the bullpen over the course of the regular season.

I also don't really buy into the way the Brewers organized their pitching in the last month as being the new norm or a trend that will be sustainable for the entirety of the regular season. Plus starting pitching will still win games; I still think we need some TOR arms.


Right, think of it this way. Is Chris Sale or prime Andrew Miller/current Hader more valuable? Clearly Sale. Miller/Hader or a mid level starting pitcher who's still good like IDK James Shields from a few years ago or Chris Archer? Well, then probably Miller.


Perhaps they have some sort of advanced metric that indicates that Hader wouldn't be effective as a starting pitcher, but I sure would like to see it tried before writing it off completely. There are plenty of failed starters that are effective relievers. In fact, I'd venture to say that most relievers come from a starting background. And there is nothing keeping the team from moving Hader back into a relief role should starting not work out as effectively as they had hoped. But to simply give up on the idea of him starting simply because he is a great reliever is short-sighted, in my opinion. I mean Wily Peralta .. WILY PERALTA ... is now an effective closer. Good starters are tougher to find than good relievers, so they have to try starting him at some point.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#73

Posted: November 06, 2018, 1:47 PM Post
Posts: 621
I think it's a little too soon to call Wily's switch to a bullpen role a complete success. Sure he did ok in terms of ERA/Ks in his 30 odd innings, but his walk rate was actually even worse... so doesn't really seem very sustainable. He at least did enough that the Royals can give him another shot next year.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#74

Posted: November 06, 2018, 2:49 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 6687
Wily Peralta walked 23 guys in 35 innings. He had a 1.485 WHIP. His 3.67 ERA was fine, but his FIP was 4.73. And we are talking about 34 innings, so the sample is pretty small.

I'm not saying he can't be an effective reliever - just that he has a lot more to do to be considered good.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#75

Posted: November 06, 2018, 3:00 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5158
Location: Three Lakes, WI
reillymcshane said:
Wily Peralta walked 23 guys in 35 innings. He had a 1.485 WHIP. His 3.67 ERA was fine, but his FIP was 4.73. And we are talking about 34 innings, so the sample is pretty small.

I'm not saying he can't be an effective reliever - just that he has a lot more to do to be considered good.


I think it would be safe to say that he looked far better as a reliever, though, than he did at any point in his last year in the Brewers' rotation.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#76

Posted: November 06, 2018, 3:08 PM Post
Posts: 3550
Location: Madison, WI
Isn't it crazy that no pitching coach can find a way to get some movement on Peralta's FB? Granted I only saw a bit of him this year but it looked the same to me. A slight grip change, something to get some action on it, even if you lose an MPH or two.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Hader (as a starter, or not)
#77

Posted: November 06, 2018, 4:20 PM Post
Posts: 621
If he can't throw strikes consistently when he has a straight fastball, I can't imagine adding more movement is really the solution to his problems... but then again, I'm not a pitching coach!


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  [ 77 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  



You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test