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Schoop news (Latest- Non-Tendered)

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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 4973
502 to Right said:
I was watching MLB Now last night (on the MLB Network) and all panelists, including former Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd, said that non-tendering Schoop was a "no-brainer."


In which case, tendering is a good idea, IMO.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 12:22 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Cots projects the Brewers' current roster would cost $110,250,000. The Brewers have only had an opening day payroll over $100M twice in their history (2014 & 2015), with their highest opening day payroll being $104,237,000.

That includes Schoop at $11M, right? So adjusted for inflation and MLB/team revenue, $110M is actually much less of a hit to the organization than either of the other two $100M+ payrolls you mentioned.

Maybe I'm shortsighted, but given the team payrolls during 2016 (~$62M) and 2017 (~$57M), I don't see how Schoop's 1 year cost would cripple any other plans to add talent/payroll for 2019 and longterm. And regardless of who's at 2nd for 2019, in 2020 you're replacing that cost with the MLB minimum in Hiura at that position.

If they think Schoop's going to stink in 2019 and have a good idea whether his camp is open to a 1 yr contract well below his projected arbitration amount to avoid being thrown into free agency a year earlier than they initially expected in a market loaded with MIF options, then sure, non-tender him - but dollars and cents shouldn't be a factor at all whether they hang onto Schoop's control into December, 4 full months before opening day 2019 and 2 full months before Schoop's actual 2019 pricetag via arbitration would be decided.


I agree that the team could probably handle the $110M payroll. I just think that would be about it, so if they hang on to Schoop they won't have much money to spend elsewhere unless they can shed some other salaries (Thames, Anderson?).

Someone earlier mentioned "opportunity cost," and that's exactly what Stearns is contemplating. Are we better with the team we currently have (including Schoop) at $110M, or are we better dumping Schoop and spending the money on other opportunities?

I don't doubt that when they made the trade they expected him to be their full-time 2B in 2019. I think that at this point they are probably leaning towards non-tendering or trading him to save the money to spend somewhere else.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 12:34 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
I really enjoy reading this thread, because it is a prime example of how behavioral heuristics affect decision-making.

Specifically, people irrationally overvalue sunk costs and undervalue opportunity costs. What Schoop was traded for is a sunk cost. It's gone, and nothing will change that. In business, you should never make decisions based on sunk costs. This is also why people lose more money gambling than they should - they try to "make it up" by playing longer or trying another game, but rarely does it work; they are making decisions based on sunk costs (earlier gambling losses).

People should make decisions based on opportunity costs. That is the question here - what is the opportunity cost of resigning Schoop? Is there someone else they can get who will likely be a better value (value defined as production compared to salary)?

An example of opportunity cost is the argument for Dietrich. They can start Dietrich against RHP (which is ~70% of starting pitching) and bring in Perez as a defensive replacement late in games to mitigate Dietrich's defensive deficiencies. The question is how much Dietrich is going to cost, and what they can do with the $ savings (invest in an upgrade elsewhere, buy out an arbitration year, etc.). Will that provide more value? I don't know.

Likely the Brewers are waiting until the last minute to evaluate all possible opportunity costs. As they should.


Excellent post. Before I got to paragraph four, my fingers were already warming up to type the name Derek Dietrich and then you went ahead and provided him as the example. He's just one and arguably the best example of how they can shift gears. But your overall point about how these decisions have to be made is spot on.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 1:26 PM Post
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The Schoop trade didn't make sense at the time.

He might have been acquired just to help against a team like the Dodgers in the playoffs with all their LHP.

Instead, he didn't even reach base in the NLCS.

Sometimes you just have to cut your losses.

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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 1:33 PM Post
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Schoop just turned 27 in October. He's theoretically not even in his prime, yet he still has arguably had a better career than most of the other options many people have advocated, many of whom have never sniffed the success Schoop had in 2017 and, on top of that, are strong candidates to decline precipitously from their already mediocre levels in the next year or two. He's a good defender and his BABIP is due for some positive regression. He's also a reverse splits hitter, so he's a good platoon partner for Perez.

I think 2017 was a fluke, and I don't think such an impatient hitter is likely to ever recapture that magic. I also am not a professional scout or a trainer, and I don't know what went wrong last year. But there's a middle ground between his 2017 and his two months with the Brewers. Look at some of the terrible hitting stretches Bryce Harper has had recently. Look at how Goldschmidt and Carpenter started the season so terribly for sucha long stretch before rebounding. Their slumps were just as bad as Schoop's and lasted almost as long, and they were top-5 MVP candidates by the end of the season. I'm not saying Schoop will ever be anywhere close to a borderline MVP candidate again, but I am saying you can't judge player's based on extended slumps.

If there's a better option, by all means grab it. I doubt he's worth $10m next year. But I think he's going to help as much as most of the other options and is one of the only ones who will only require a 1 year commitment. There's also a slim chance he could be an all-star next season, and to me that makes it worth the gamble.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 1:43 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
The Schoop trade didn't make sense at the time.

He might have been acquired just to help against a team like the Dodgers in the playoffs with all their LHP.


He has a .693 career OPS against LHP, so it was really stupid to acquire him if that was the reason.

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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 1:58 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
The Schoop trade didn't make sense at the time.

He might have been acquired just to help against a team like the Dodgers in the playoffs with all their LHP.


He has a .693 career OPS against LHP, so it was really stupid to acquire him if that was the reason.


I think the bolded part pretty much sums up the deal. Stearns felt the need to make a big move, and looked past Schoop's warts hoping that his hot week prior to the trade would carry over. The truth is, though, Schoop is the exact type of hitter Stearns had shown he was trying to get away from by signing Cain and trading for Yelich and to a lesser extent, Moustakas. Schoop is very much a player Doug Melvin would have loved, but while he has the type of bat that can carry a team for short stretches in a Babe Ruthian style, it is no even close to sustainable due to his poor approach and lack of discipline. I was super excited about the deal when it happened, but I naively was looking past Schoop's warts and was thinking, or rather hoping, he would be the middle-of-the-order bat the team desperately needed at the time. I was completely wrong on that front. Thankfully Moose was decent, Shaw improved, Yelich became super human and Braun channeled his 2011 self, and when combined with terrific pitching, it was enough to go on that great run and win the division.

I think Stearns likely had a different deal in mind involving Ortiz (I'm guessing for Gausman or another 2B), and when that deal fell apart, he panicked and grabbed Schoop because he felt the need to grab someone at the deadline. It happens. I'd love to see them get some value out of Schoop, but if it doesn't happen, oh well I guess. You can't compound mistakes by prolonging them. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him go somewhere else and be great again. I just don't ever see that happening for the Brewers.


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Online  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 2:02 PM Post
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The part we don't mention much is that Arcia was basically trash last season until the last month or so. My guess is that this played a role in acquiring Schoop as well. If Arcia had been doing his job all year, we might not have been so desperate to make this move.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 2:09 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
The part we don't mention much is that Arcia was basically trash last season until the last month or so. My guess is that this played a role in acquiring Schoop as well. If Arcia had been doing his job all year, we might not have been so desperate to make this move.


You are right. I think that was part of it too. Along with the revolving door of sub replacement-level crap (Villar, Sogard, Miller, Saladino, Perez) that the team was running out regularly at 2B. Plus I think there were people in the organization who had doubts that Shaw could play a passable 2B.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 2:13 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
The part we don't mention much is that Arcia was basically trash last season until the last month or so. My guess is that this played a role in acquiring Schoop as well. If Arcia had been doing his job all year, we might not have been so desperate to make this move.


That was indeed significant in late July - as Schoop got a decent amount of starts early in his Brewer stint at SS. I think the fact he proved to play a passable shortstop should be considered for 2019 as well - he gives them a reverse platoon option spelling Arcia there on occasion and would give the team less reason to have a roster spot dedicated to a backup MIF of Saladino/Sogard's ilk.

If nothing else the Brewers shunned some of the positional norms to get bats in the lineup down the stretch - while relying on shifts to mitigate what would traditionally be perceived as defensive liabilities (i.e., Shaw at 2nd, Perez at SS, etc)


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 3:03 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
The truth is, though, Schoop is the exact type of hitter Stearns had shown he was trying to get away from by signing Cain and trading for Yelich and to a lesser extent, Moustakas. Schoop is very much a player Doug Melvin would have loved


I agree with this completely--which I was I was highly negative on the trade from the word go. I love what Stearns has done but the Schoop trade was a head scratcher.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 3:18 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
trwi7 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
The Schoop trade didn't make sense at the time.

He might have been acquired just to help against a team like the Dodgers in the playoffs with all their LHP.


He has a .693 career OPS against LHP, so it was really stupid to acquire him if that was the reason.


I think the bolded part pretty much sums up the deal. Stearns felt the need to make a big move, and looked past Schoop's warts hoping that his hot week prior to the trade would carry over. The truth is, though, Schoop is the exact type of hitter Stearns had shown he was trying to get away from by signing Cain and trading for Yelich and to a lesser extent, Moustakas. Schoop is very much a player Doug Melvin would have loved, but while he has the type of bat that can carry a team for short stretches in a Babe Ruthian style, it is no even close to sustainable due to his poor approach and lack of discipline. I was super excited about the deal when it happened, but I naively was looking past Schoop's warts and was thinking, or rather hoping, he would be the middle-of-the-order bat the team desperately needed at the time. I was completely wrong on that front. Thankfully Moose was decent, Shaw improved, Yelich became super human and Braun channeled his 2011 self, and when combined with terrific pitching, it was enough to go on that great run and win the division.

I think Stearns likely had a different deal in mind involving Ortiz (I'm guessing for Gausman or another 2B), and when that deal fell apart, he panicked and grabbed Schoop because he felt the need to grab someone at the deadline. It happens. I'd love to see them get some value out of Schoop, but if it doesn't happen, oh well I guess. You can't compound mistakes by prolonging them. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him go somewhere else and be great again. I just don't ever see that happening for the Brewers.


I agree with everything you said, except I don't think it was a panic move. I think he wanted pitching and couldn't get a deal done that he thought was fair. So he figured Schoop, while not the ideal type of hitter, could still be an upgrade for the stretch run- especially since he appeared to be "hot" at the time. Catch lightning in the bottle for a month or two. I think it was a calculated risk, not a panic move.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 3:29 PM Post
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I think the worries about how high the payroll is now might be overblown somewhat. Payrolls go up over time so it being higher now than in the past should be expected. We can't be comparing it to years past. If we are going to be competitive now it is going to be higher than the last time we had a competitive team.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 3:45 PM Post
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We all knew he would get non tendered. We don’t have the payroll for $10M if he isn’t a middle of the order bat.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 4:35 PM Post
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He hasn't been non-tendered yet & even if he eventually is, we didn't all know it was going to happen ahead of time or else this thread would not exist to the extent it does.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 4:40 PM Post
Posts: 1956
Boomer5 said:
We all knew he would get non tendered. We don’t have the payroll for $10M if he isn’t a middle of the order bat.


What? A credible insider says they're leaning that way. That's not at all a done deal, and it certainly doesn't indicate that it was ever even remotely conclusive or an easy decision.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 5:21 PM Post
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#Brewers non-tender Jonathan Schoop, Xavier Cedeno and Dan Jennings.

https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/stat ... 58789?s=21


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 5:34 PM Post
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Adam McCalvy
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54s55 seconds ago
David Stearns looking at the Schoop trade in hindsight: "Look, it was a bad deal, and that's on me. We made a trade for a player we thought was going to be here for a year and a half, and I was wrong."

Love the accountability here.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 5:35 PM Post
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Boomer5 said:
We all knew he would get non tendered. We don’t have the payroll for $10M if he isn’t a middle of the order bat.


$10 million doesn't get you a middle of the order bat these days and hasn't for a while now.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Schoop news
Posted: November 30, 2018, 5:35 PM Post
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Like this kind of accountability from Stearns

David Stearns looking at the Schoop trade in hindsight: "Look, it was a bad deal, and that's on me. We made a trade for a player we thought was going to be here for a year and a half, and I was wrong."


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