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Soria and Moustakas officially FA

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Offline  Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#1

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:38 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/stat ... 6958816258


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#2

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:44 PM Post
Posts: 3471
Location: Madison, WI
Kind of surprised Soria turned his down (this is phrased as if it's mutual and he declined his end). It's not like he's getting 10 mil in FA. Must hope for a multi year for a higher total amount even if less in AAV


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#3

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:46 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
tmwiese55 said:
Kind of surprised Soria turned his down (this is phrased as if it's mutual and he declined his end). It's not like he's getting 10 mil in FA. Must hope for a multi year for a higher total amount even if less in AAV


The market for relievers was hot last year. Pretty much everyone bought early and was signing anyone decent to a 2/16. I'd be surprised if Soria didn't get at least that.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#4

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:48 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Kind of surprised Soria turned his down (this is phrased as if it's mutual and he declined his end). It's not like he's getting 10 mil in FA. Must hope for a multi year for a higher total amount even if less in AAV


The market for relievers was hot last year. Pretty much everyone bought early and was signing anyone decent to a 2/16. I'd be surprised if Soria didn't get at least that.

Yeah, this is my thought. Relievers made bank last year. At age 34, this may be his last chance for a really good payday. Plus, Soria may be looking for a closing opportunity.

Still, $10M is a lot to pass up.

I had thought the Brewers had the option on Soria - didn't realize it was mutual. I guess this takes things out of our hands.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#5

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:50 PM Post
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Not upset to see Soria depart.

Moustakas, I hope, can be brought back, say for two years, $20 million with a team option for a third year.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#6

Posted: October 30, 2018, 3:54 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Kind of surprised Soria turned his down (this is phrased as if it's mutual and he declined his end). It's not like he's getting 10 mil in FA. Must hope for a multi year for a higher total amount even if less in AAV


Who knows maybe his agent asked the Brewers if they would interested in exercising their end of the option and the Brewers let them know they wouldn't be........allowing Soria to be the one to opt out.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#7

Posted: October 30, 2018, 4:07 PM Post
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markedman5 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Kind of surprised Soria turned his down (this is phrased as if it's mutual and he declined his end). It's not like he's getting 10 mil in FA. Must hope for a multi year for a higher total amount even if less in AAV


Who knows maybe his agent asked the Brewers if they would interested in exercising their end of the option and the Brewers let them know they wouldn't be........allowing Soria to be the one to opt out.


Agreed, it can be argued that it's more advantageous to the player to be seen as the one turning down the deal.

Either way, had no interest in either at these option prices anyway.


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Online  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#8

Posted: October 30, 2018, 4:14 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
Moustakas, I hope, can be brought back, say for two years, $20 million with a team option for a third year.

If Moustakas just turned down one year at $15 million to then turn around and sign a two year, $20 million contract, then I would say he got very bad advice entering the off-season for the second year in a row.


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Online  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#9

Posted: October 30, 2018, 4:42 PM Post
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Moustakas was fine but he would be an overpay. Just isn’t consistent at getting on base.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#10

Posted: October 30, 2018, 4:44 PM Post
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I'm grateful for what Moustakas did for the Brewers down the stretch, as he definitely helped the offense get to the point that it was deep enough to not be dragging down the team at that point. That said, his profile as a batter doesn't really address some of the core issues that have kept the Brewers from having as good an offense as they really need to have to be a good bet to repeat the run they had this year (dearth of OBP, high strikeout rates in too many of their hitters still, mostly the OBP thing).


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#11

Posted: October 30, 2018, 4:55 PM Post
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I wouldn’t be shocked if Soria declined his side just because he knew we wouldn’t accept our side. Looks better to decline it instead of a team saying you aren’t worth X amount of dollars.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#12

Posted: October 30, 2018, 6:37 PM Post
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istanbultaye said:
I'm grateful for what Moustakas did for the Brewers down the stretch, as he definitely helped the offense get to the point that it was deep enough to not be dragging down the team at that point. That said, his profile as a batter doesn't really address some of the core issues that have kept the Brewers from having as good an offense as they really need to have to be a good bet to repeat the run they had this year (dearth of OBP, high strikeout rates in too many of their hitters still, mostly the OBP thing).


Fully agree.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#13

Posted: October 31, 2018, 5:31 AM Post
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Yes, thanks Moose. I'd rather put Shaw back at 3rd.


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Online  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#14

Posted: October 31, 2018, 7:33 AM Post
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If the Brewers are willing to spend 2 years and $20 million on a FA, I would hope they could get a little better fit than Moustakas. Why not use that money and sign Dozier and allow Shaw to go back to 3B? They need more RH pop.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#15

Posted: October 31, 2018, 7:44 AM Post
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Thank them both for helping us to a division title and NLCS, and use the $25M to help build a champion in 2019. They're both good players, but I'm not upset to see either of them walk at those prices.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#16

Posted: October 31, 2018, 7:45 AM Post
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MLBTradeRumors reported that each of them get the 1 million buyout as specified in their contracts. So Soria "forfeited" 9 million, his agent probably figures the low end for a new contract would be something like 2 years, 14 million which is a lower number per year but is still an additional 5 million guaranteed. And that should definitely be the low, low end of the offers he receives.

Also worth noting that the White Sox shipped approximately 1 million to Milwaukee as part of the trade, and I always suspected that the cash was for the buyout.

Personally I hope Moustakas remains OUT of the Brewer's mix. He had a great first month with them but his performance faded as the season progressed. .343/.854 (OBP/OPS) in August, .319/.732 in September, .273/.523 in the playoffs. Slash line for Milwaukee in both regular season and playoffs was .247/.317/.409/.726 and that's below average for 3B. MLB lists the 3B slash line from 2018 as .257/.329/.434/.763. In fairness to Moustakas, the 3-year split (2016-2018) is a much better .260/.314/.490/.804, but that OBP is just a bit low for me when considering the team will probably be dealing with somewhat limited finances this off-season. Last year Shaw hit .251/.359/.477/.836 when playing 3B. Would much rather see Shaw back at 3B and the Brewers find a new answer for 2B (maybe Schoop, maybe someone else).


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#17

Posted: October 31, 2018, 8:18 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Eye Black said:
clancyphile said:
Moustakas, I hope, can be brought back, say for two years, $20 million with a team option for a third year.

If Moustakas just turned down one year at $15 million to then turn around and sign a two year, $20 million contract, then I would say he got very bad advice entering the off-season for the second year in a row.


A few days ago I would have agreed with you but just recently ran across this older Fangraphs article.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-mik ... t-develop/

Now I have no clue as to what Moustakas' sprint speeds were in 2018. He did steal four bases. He also did have a bounce-back in defensive metrics, posting a +2 DRS and a +1.0 UZR/150. On the flip side, his offensive numbers were down from 2017 to 2018 and now he'll be entering his age 30 season. And "luck" doesn't appear to have much to do with that drop. His BABIP was bad, but for him a low BABIP number is normal because he is the king of the infield pop-out. 19.2% last year and 17.0% in his career. The 19.2% tied him for the league lead with Yangervis Solarte (Blue Jays). There were only 8 regulars who had infield fly ball rates at 17% of greater this year.

But when looking at the entire picture, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the league as a whole views him as a player that has the potential to decline rapidly from this point forward. At this point it's probably safe to say that his defense has declined to the point where he might only be considered average. 10 HR drop off from 2017 to 2018 with 2 months in a good hitter's park. There have always been OBP issues throughout his career. And while he's posted some big HR totals in the past, he just isn't a good enough hitter to become a desirable DH if another injury limits his 3B play further.

I would have agreed that 15 million for one season is a good number, better to take it and try again in free agency next year. But all things considered, maybe if an agent can get him a 2 year, 20 million deal, perhaps that would be best? Get the extra 5 million in the bank right now. After all, with the buyout this year he ended up making 6.5 million in 2018 and that was coming off a 38 home run season. If he gets a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal...let's break it down as 15 million for 2019 to mimic the original option year and 5 million for 2020...who is to say he's a lock to get 5 million in 2020 when he could only get 6.5 million in 2018 and that was coming off a 38 HR season?

I would have agreed with you a few days ago, but that Fangraphs article really made me take a second look at Moustakas' situation.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#18

Posted: October 31, 2018, 9:21 AM Post
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I agree with that sentiment Joseph. I think that Moose might be wishing he'd have taken the $15m before the offseason is over. He's well-known because of his playoff exposure, but he's not a good enough player to receive the kind of contract he seems to think he can demand. He's an MLB regular, not a star.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#19

Posted: October 31, 2018, 9:27 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Eye Black said:
clancyphile said:
Moustakas, I hope, can be brought back, say for two years, $20 million with a team option for a third year.

If Moustakas just turned down one year at $15 million to then turn around and sign a two year, $20 million contract, then I would say he got very bad advice entering the off-season for the second year in a row.


A few days ago I would have agreed with you but just recently ran across this older Fangraphs article.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-mik ... t-develop/

Now I have no clue as to what Moustakas' sprint speeds were in 2018. He did steal four bases. He also did have a bounce-back in defensive metrics, posting a +2 DRS and a +1.0 UZR/150. On the flip side, his offensive numbers were down from 2017 to 2018 and now he'll be entering his age 30 season. And "luck" doesn't appear to have much to do with that drop. His BABIP was bad, but for him a low BABIP number is normal because he is the king of the infield pop-out. 19.2% last year and 17.0% in his career. The 19.2% tied him for the league lead with Yangervis Solarte (Blue Jays). There were only 8 regulars who had infield fly ball rates at 17% of greater this year.

But when looking at the entire picture, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the league as a whole views him as a player that has the potential to decline rapidly from this point forward. At this point it's probably safe to say that his defense has declined to the point where he might only be considered average. 10 HR drop off from 2017 to 2018 with 2 months in a good hitter's park. There have always been OBP issues throughout his career. And while he's posted some big HR totals in the past, he just isn't a good enough hitter to become a desirable DH if another injury limits his 3B play further.

I would have agreed that 15 million for one season is a good number, better to take it and try again in free agency next year. But all things considered, maybe if an agent can get him a 2 year, 20 million deal, perhaps that would be best? Get the extra 5 million in the bank right now. After all, with the buyout this year he ended up making 6.5 million in 2018 and that was coming off a 38 home run season. If he gets a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal...let's break it down as 15 million for 2019 to mimic the original option year and 5 million for 2020...who is to say he's a lock to get 5 million in 2020 when he could only get 6.5 million in 2018 and that was coming off a 38 HR season?

I would have agreed with you a few days ago, but that Fangraphs article really made me take a second look at Moustakas' situation.


Excellent article. We learned first hand that while he is useful, there is a reason a former premium player playing a premium position could only land a $6.5M contract.


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Offline  Re: Soria and Moustakas officially FA
#20

Posted: October 31, 2018, 9:48 AM Post
Posts: 3471
Location: Madison, WI
monty57 said:
I agree with that sentiment Joseph. I think that Moose might be wishing he'd have taken the $15m before the offseason is over. He's well-known because of his playoff exposure, but he's not a good enough player to receive the kind of contract he seems to think he can demand. He's an MLB regular, not a star.


It's gotta be so frustrating for Moose. He and Hosmer are so similar of players, Moose plays a tougher position on D yet hosmer gets 125 mil and no one will sign Moose for big money.


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