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Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels

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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#21

Posted: November 02, 2018, 1:57 PM Post
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Since they got the Rangers to take on Smyly’s $7m in 2019 it’s basically a $13m net decision. Really not a big deal for a team that’s going to have a payroll over $220m.

Actually pretty good leverage for the cubs to use that buyout against the rangers as a negotiation term to dump a $7m question mark on them.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#22

Posted: November 02, 2018, 3:06 PM Post
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long ball said:

Actually pretty good leverage for the cubs to use that buyout against the rangers as a negotiation term to dump a $7m question mark on them.


Kind of a no-brainer for the Rangers, though. With a 6 million sunk cost in that situation, the Rangers basically paid just $1million for that question mark. Very much win-win there.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels; trade Smyly to Rangers
#23

Posted: November 02, 2018, 3:50 PM Post
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And That said:
$20 million is probably fine for Hamels from a value standpoint and the Cubs can afford it, but that's about the extent of how it helps them. He's very unlikely to outperform the contract and as a 35yo, there's certainly some age-based performance risk.

He can also continue to monitor the likelihood of a rivalry evolving between the Brewers and Cubs.


Well played. Probably the most interesting thing about this news.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#24

Posted: November 02, 2018, 4:30 PM Post
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I love Cubs adding older, expensive starters. It could work for them, but increasing payroll and risk profile just raises odds of being hamstrung.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#25

Posted: November 03, 2018, 2:05 AM Post
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turborickey said:
Why is that a good deal, for anyone?

Is 20 million for a re-tread starting pitcher a good deal for the Brewers?

I stand by my original opinion, glad it was them instead of us. I would wager that he comes no where near what he did for the Cubs when they first got him. He is going to digress, probably near his 1st half Ranger numbers.

Glad the Cubs wasted 20 million on this guy!

I'd do this in a heartbeat if i was the Cubs and as a Brewers fan, i wish the Cubs had let him walk.

Hamels was not only great while with the Cubs, he had a sub-3 ERA in road games with Texas. He just got shelled pitching in that Texas launching pad.

I paid attention in the two games i saw Hamels. His velocity is still good, along with his quality offspeed stuff. His run with the Cubs wasn't just a bunch of fluke starts, he pitched great.

Plus, it's a low risk decision. Only a one year deal. If he pitches poorly, the Cubs cut ties and owe him no more cash. No brainer for them.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#26

Posted: November 03, 2018, 11:36 AM Post
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SoCal Brew Crew Fan said:
I love Cubs adding older, expensive starters. It could work for them, but increasing payroll and risk profile just raises odds of being hamstrung.



That might be true for multi-year deals but a 1 year deal with an aging pitcher is not going to hamstring the Cubs at all. If the pitcher sucks they will release him and move on without missing a beat.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#27

Posted: November 03, 2018, 3:06 PM Post
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Per mlbtraderumors, it is $20 million. Cubs used leverage of buyout to get rangers to take on almost equivalent of Smylys salary of $7mil.

"
In essence, then, the reportedly forthcoming trade is a somewhat creative means of the Cubs retaining Hamels while still receiving the benefit of the same level of financial compensation from the Texas organization — if not a bit more. The Rangers will absorb either all of Smyly’s $7MM salary or, speculatively speaking, could agree to pay $6MM of that sum with the Cubs eating $1MM in cost in order to keep the dollars at the same level they’d have been had Texas merely paid the buyout."

Also, it is a $22.5 mill cap hit for the Cubs and they're going to over $200 mill and possibly close to luxury tax threshold of $206. Good, burn through money for crap players. Cubs have tons of money but it gets a bit more painful in luxury tax.


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Online  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#28

Posted: November 03, 2018, 3:16 PM Post
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With them so close to the Luxury Tax, do you think they go over and go after Harper and Machado?

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#29

Posted: November 03, 2018, 3:23 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
With them so close to the Luxury Tax, do you think they go over and go after Harper and Machado?

I see them going after and likely getting one. Probably Harper. They can afford to go in to the $250 to $270 million payroll range for a few years, they get a new tv deal or their own network in the next year. They also lose a ton of money in the next two years with Zobrist, Hamels, Morrow, Lester, Chatwood, and Quintana all coming off their books. Those guys obviously need to be replaced and they have guys getting arbitration raises but if they go get Harper this year they can still keep a payroll in the low to mid 200 range. They won’t be needing to go in to the 300 range to keep a decent team around if they can’t or won’t go that high.

Also on the post above, where do you see be $22.5 LT hit? Everything I’ve seen is either $14 or $20 depending on if that $6 million buyout was factored in or not in his previous contract years.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#30

Posted: November 03, 2018, 6:05 PM Post
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MoreTrife said:
Also, it is a $22.5 mill cap hit for the Cubs and they're going to over $200 mill and possibly close to luxury tax threshold of $206. Good, burn through money for crap players. Cubs have tons of money but it gets a bit more painful in luxury tax.


Cole Hamels has put up an ERA+ of 137 (2016), 115 (2017), and 122 (2018) the last three years. You can argue whether he's worth $20 million in 2019, but to suggest he's a "crap player" is just asinine.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#31

Posted: November 03, 2018, 7:34 PM Post
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502 to Right said:
MoreTrife said:
Also, it is a $22.5 mill cap hit for the Cubs and they're going to over $200 mill and possibly close to luxury tax threshold of $206. Good, burn through money for crap players. Cubs have tons of money but it gets a bit more painful in luxury tax.


Cole Hamels has put up an ERA+ of 137 (2016), 115 (2017), and 122 (2018) the last three years. You can argue whether he's worth $20 million in 2019, but to suggest he's a "crap player" is just asinine.

Yeah I would have been really interested in him for us if he hit FA, honestly. He put up those numbers largely pitching in 100 degree Coors Field South. That stadium changes and affects things for pitchers.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#32

Posted: November 05, 2018, 8:40 AM Post
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Key levels:

-The 2019 luxury tax begins at $206M at 20% for first year "offenders," 30% for someone who is over two years in a row, and 50% for teams over for three+ years in a row.

-There is a 12% surtax for teams $20-$40M over the threshold, 42.4-45% surtax for teams $40M+ over the threshold. I am not clear as to whether this is calculated as 20% on $206M-$226M, 32% on $226M-$246M, and 62.5% on amounts over $246M, or if it is 62.5% on all dollars over $206M if you go over the $246 limit.

-Teams $40M+ over the threshold get their top draft pick moved back 10 spots unless they fall in the top 6, in which case their second highest pick will get moved back 10 spots.

Things can change, but right now Cots has them $16,407,143 over the threshold, so signing one of Harper or Machado would likely put them over the $40M limit, causing them to pay 20% plus the 42.5% surtax, in addition to having their top draft spot drop ten spots.

After 2019, Hamels ($20M), Zobrist ($14M), Cishek ($6.5M), and Duensing ($3.5M) are free agents. Quintana ($10.5M), and Morrow ($9M) have options with buyouts. This will shed a lot of salary, but will also leave them with some holes in the roster, and they don't have a strong farm, so they'll probably need to spend to fill these holes.

It's possible, if they don't mind getting completely slammed in 2019 in taxes and losing draft spots, that they'll go after one of Harper or Machado, biting the bullet for a year in hopes of clearing salary in the coming years, but this move makes it look less likely. Without this, they could have stayed under the "$40M over" threshold, but that's not likely now unless they can find a team to take someone like Zobrist off their hands.

My hope is that Theo will do anything to get a 2nd ring in Chicago before moving on to another big market in rebuild, leaving the next GM with something of a mess. Signing Machado or Harper to a mega-deal could make things messy for years to come.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#33

Posted: November 05, 2018, 9:41 AM Post
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monty57 said:
My hope is that Theo will do anything to get a 2nd ring in Chicago before moving on to another big market in rebuild, leaving the next GM with something of a mess. Signing Machado or Harper to a mega-deal could make things messy for years to come.


He really is making a mess of the payroll, and I fully expect him to bolt again rather than cleanup his own mess. He'll be the GM or president of baseball ops for the Angels, Giants, or Mets in 2021.


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#34

Posted: November 05, 2018, 1:23 PM Post
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CrewFanBrewMan69 said:
3and2Fastball said:
With them so close to the Luxury Tax, do you think they go over and go after Harper and Machado?

I see them going after and likely getting one. Probably Harper. They can afford to go in to the $250 to $270 million payroll range for a few years, they get a new tv deal or their own network in the next year. They also lose a ton of money in the next two years with Zobrist, Hamels, Morrow, Lester, Chatwood, and Quintana all coming off their books. Those guys obviously need to be replaced and they have guys getting arbitration raises but if they go get Harper this year they can still keep a payroll in the low to mid 200 range. They won’t be needing to go in to the 300 range to keep a decent team around if they can’t or won’t go that high.

Also on the post above, where do you see be $22.5 LT hit? Everything I’ve seen is either $14 or $20 depending on if that $6 million buyout was factored in or not in his previous contract years.


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/ ... ngers.html

"Smyly’s contract came with a $5MM luxury tax hit, whereas Hamels’ deal after the option is exercised effectively becomes a seven-year, $158MM contract and would carry a $22.5MM luxury hit."


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Offline  Re: Cubs picked up option for Cole Hamels
#35

Posted: November 05, 2018, 1:37 PM Post
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MoreTrife said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/cubs-exercise-cole-hamels-option-trade-drew-smyly-rangers.html

"Smyly’s contract came with a $5MM luxury tax hit, whereas Hamels’ deal after the option is exercised effectively becomes a seven-year, $158MM contract and would carry a $22.5MM luxury hit."


Yes, if you look at Cots, they break out the actual payroll owed by the team to the players, and the adjusted amount computed for luxury tax purposes. I don't know the math behind figuring this out, but sometimes the numbers are the same, and sometimes they're different.

One thing about being a fan of the small market Brewers is that we will never have to worry about this affecting our team.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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