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Future Payrolls

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Online  Future Payrolls
#1

Posted: November 28, 2018, 6:33 PM Post
Posts: 428
Looking back at the 2016 and 2017 payrolls of $63 million. Does that allow for larger than “normal” payrolls for us? Maybe this would allow or payroll to expand a bit and allow some wiggle room? I’m not sure how all that carries over from year to year. I’ve just seen a lot of payroll talk in other forms and thought I’d ask!


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#2

Posted: November 28, 2018, 7:22 PM Post
Posts: 1200
Location: Madison, WI
Here is what one guy from MLBTradeRumors thinks:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/ ... -2019.html

He has 110 million. My guess would be just slightly higher than that (112 million).

If Attanasio does something like jack it up to 125+ million, my gut feeling is that it will have nothing to do with the payrolls he's run with in the past. It would be foolish to over-extend now with past saved money only have to cut it back later after that saved money has run out. If the payroll takes a big move up, I would suspect it will have to do more with new or better revenue steams than what they've had to work with in the past (start with the new FOX broadcast deal).


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#3

Posted: November 29, 2018, 12:07 AM Post
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Posts: 577
The. Time. Is. Now.

If M.A. can't dump some serious cash into this operation right now he should sell the franchise. One game away from the World Series.


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#4

Posted: November 29, 2018, 7:28 AM Post
Posts: 701
502 to Right said:
The. Time. Is. Now.

If M.A. can't dump some serious cash into this operation right now he should sell the franchise. One game away from the World Series.


+1. This is the one business he runs for fun. Winning in investment banking is profitable. Winning in baseball is fun.


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#5

Posted: November 29, 2018, 7:33 AM Post
Posts: 1346
How much has MA pocketed the last 2-3 years? 75 million? Plus the Brewers received what 50 million from that digital agreement. Royals carried 130 mill + during their run. I agree the time is now


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#6

Posted: November 29, 2018, 9:11 AM Post
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KCBrewerfan34 said:
How much has MA pocketed the last 2-3 years? 75 million? Plus the Brewers received what 50 million from that digital agreement. Royals carried 130 mill + during their run. I agree the time is now


I think the 50 million from the digital agreement went to Maryvale being rebuilt.


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#7

Posted: November 29, 2018, 9:15 AM Post
Posts: 229
MA has not "pocketed" anything. People have to stop thinking this is still the 1970's. That is not how baseball teams are run and pro-sports leagues specifically approve new owners who can run these organizations without relying on "pocketing" anything from the team finances.

Lower payrolls for a few years paid for the new spring training complex among other things.


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#8

Posted: November 29, 2018, 9:18 AM Post
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KCBrewerfan34 said:
How much has MA pocketed the last 2-3 years? 75 million?


Is this just some random guess, or do actually have some inside information that the rest of the general public does not have?


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#9

Posted: November 29, 2018, 9:27 AM Post
Posts: 3571
Location: New Berlin, WI
Jose Cardenal1 said:
MA has not "pocketed" anything. People have to stop thinking this is still the 1970's. That is not how baseball teams are run and pro-sports leagues specifically approve new owners who can run these organizations without relying on "pocketing" anything from the team finances.

Lower payrolls for a few years paid for the new spring training complex among other things.


Right. And a reminder that the Brewers were one of the biggest spenders last offseason...when nobody else was spending. I believe a new TV deal is coming after the 2019 season as well. I personally think $110M for an opening payroll makes sense, and could also see it inch a bit higher. I'll add that if the Brewers are doing well, I don't think payroll would be a huge factor in decision making at the deadline. Player payroll is obviously the biggest expense a team has, but all other operational costs are increasing year to year regardless of if the team is good or not. And I have to imagine MA is opening his checkbook a bit to try and keep Stearns from bolting to a big market when his contract is up. It's definitely not as simple as "that one time they got a $50M payout" or "ticket prices went up 8% this year, so payroll should go up 8%".


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#10

Posted: November 29, 2018, 9:52 AM Post
Posts: 217
Location: Washburn, WI
I see our opening day payroll being between $100-$105 million and increasing to around $115 million by season’s end this season after trades and other roster moves. In a couple years from now, I think our payroll will be around $130 million as we add more high end talent and make a strong push to win a World Series.


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#11

Posted: November 29, 2018, 9:57 AM Post
Posts: 380
KeithStone53151 said:
Right. And a reminder that the Brewers were one of the biggest spenders last offseason...when nobody else was spending. I believe a new TV deal is coming after the 2019 season as well. I personally think $110M for an opening payroll makes sense, and could also see it inch a bit higher. I'll add that if the Brewers are doing well, I don't think payroll would be a huge factor in decision making at the deadline. Player payroll is obviously the biggest expense a team has, but all other operational costs are increasing year to year regardless of if the team is good or not. And I have to imagine MA is opening his checkbook a bit to try and keep Stearns from bolting to a big market when his contract is up. It's definitely not as simple as "that one time they got a $50M payout" or "ticket prices went up 8% this year, so payroll should go up 8%".


Right, and a note for everyone to consider, anything over $105 million will be an all-time franchise high. Mark A has repeatedly signed off on going over budget when the team was in position to contend. Money will be spent. But you also have to remember the Brewers have a lot of options under team control before they even explore free agency. It might make more sense to find out where they're weakest come July and take on salary then.


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#12

Posted: November 29, 2018, 10:11 AM Post
Posts: 1346
Random guess. Great attendance and back to back years of payroll at under $65 million. Brewers made some cash!!!


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#13

Posted: November 29, 2018, 11:57 AM Post
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502 to Right said:
The. Time. Is. Now.

If M.A. can't dump some serious cash into this operation right now he should sell the franchise. One game away from the World Series.


The strategy is to build a sustained winner. I agree the cash should be spent eventually, but the correct time to do it is dictated by opportunity. Last winter the opportunities came along, it remains to be seen if similar ones will arise this year.


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#14

Posted: November 29, 2018, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 380
owbc said:
502 to Right said:
The. Time. Is. Now.

If M.A. can't dump some serious cash into this operation right now he should sell the franchise. One game away from the World Series.


The strategy is to build a sustained winner. I agree the cash should be spent eventually, but the correct time to do it is dictated by opportunity. Last winter the opportunities came along, it remains to be seen if similar ones will arise this year.


+1

This.


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#15

Posted: November 29, 2018, 12:49 PM Post
Posts: 346
I don't think "saving" on payrolls in previous seasons really has any meaningful impact on what teams are willing to spend going forward.

The Brewers also renovated Maryvale and bought the Mudcats so there were other capital investments made.

I agree that $105-110mm for the opening day payroll feels about right.


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#16

Posted: November 29, 2018, 2:27 PM Post
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long ball said:
I don't think "saving" on payrolls in previous seasons really has any meaningful impact on what teams are willing to spend going forward.

The Brewers also renovated Maryvale and bought the Mudcats so there were other capital investments made.

I agree that $105-110mm for the opening day payroll feels about right.


I think you're correct. The Brewers are an LLC, so any profits would carry forward to the owners. Therefore, it makes sense for them to find a way to invest any excess revenues back into the team so they are always operating around break-even. Buying a minor league franchise, rebuilding Maryvale, and renovating the concession area are all ways for the owners to build equity while not paying a lot of taxes.

I would not expect a higher payroll until the team expects a sustainable increase in annual revenues. I wouldn't expect a jump in payroll beyond around $100-110m until the new TV deal kicks in. I believe that's after next season, so I would expect this to be a relatively quiet offseason.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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#17

Posted: November 29, 2018, 2:46 PM Post
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It's also important to remember that Opening Day payroll is not necessarily the number the Brewers are looking at from a budget standpoint. They know there will be further payroll costs throughout the season, in the millions, even if they add no further outside players during the season. So if they start with a $110 million payroll, the number they are looking at internally might actually be closer to $115 million before the season even starts due to the fact they know players will need DL time, 40-man players get paid differently in MLB vs. in the minors, etc.


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#18

Posted: November 29, 2018, 4:03 PM Post
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monty57 said:
long ball said:
I don't think "saving" on payrolls in previous seasons really has any meaningful impact on what teams are willing to spend going forward.

The Brewers also renovated Maryvale and bought the Mudcats so there were other capital investments made.

I agree that $105-110mm for the opening day payroll feels about right.


I think you're correct. The Brewers are an LLC, so any profits would carry forward to the owners. Therefore, it makes sense for them to find a way to invest any excess revenues back into the team so they are always operating around break-even. Buying a minor league franchise, rebuilding Maryvale, and renovating the concession area are all ways for the owners to build equity while not paying a lot of taxes.

I would not expect a higher payroll until the team expects a sustainable increase in annual revenues. I wouldn't expect a jump in payroll beyond around $100-110m until the new TV deal kicks in. I believe that's after next season, so I would expect this to be a relatively quiet offseason.


On the other hand, wouldn't another deep playoff run and possible WS appearance help them get a bigger new TV deal? Perhaps you gotta spend a little more to make a little more?


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#19

Posted: November 29, 2018, 6:48 PM Post
Posts: 7520
wow, we have no clue whatsoever to the Brewers spending on Minor League players, facilities, support systems, etc. We have no clue what the Brewers generate for revenues. It would be ridiculous for anyone to make a claim that MA has pocketed $75M. I would assume all of the revenues stay with the franchise and no money is going to him.


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#20

Posted: November 30, 2018, 6:27 AM Post
Posts: 701
DHonks said:
wow, we have no clue whatsoever to the Brewers spending on Minor League players, facilities, support systems, etc. We have no clue what the Brewers generate for revenues. It would be ridiculous for anyone to make a claim that MA has pocketed $75M. I would assume all of the revenues stay with the franchise and no money is going to him.


Mark and friends bought the Brewers in 2005 for $223M. If he sold it today there would be a "B" in the amount. He also has an investment banking firm which allowed him to buy the Brewers.

He has a personal wealth of $700M. He is a great owner and will spend when needed, because it is more than just a business, it is his adult toy. That being said it is still a business and he still wants to make money.


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