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Jean Segura to Phillies

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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#21

Posted: December 03, 2018, 12:22 PM Post
Posts: 358
JosephC said:
Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.


It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins.

Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#22

Posted: December 03, 2018, 12:54 PM Post
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long ball said:
JosephC said:
Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.


It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins.

Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.


There's something to be said about the risk that the Phillies took on Arrieta and Santana. They knew that they had a lot of wiggle room in the next few seasons and therefore chose to pay what was likely a higher annual cost in return for less years.

I'm sure they weren't hoping to be trying to dump him right away in 2019, but only 2 years of commitment seems to make it more manageable to trade him than if he had something like 4 years at $12-15 million/each left. They also knew that even if he was playing better and they didn't want to deal him or that if they were simply stuck with him, his money would be off the books by the time they need to dig into the coffers for Nola, etc. (added to Corbin and/or Harper and/or Machado) if their plan comes to fruition.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#23

Posted: December 03, 2018, 1:44 PM Post
Posts: 358
bill hAll Star said:
long ball said:
JosephC said:
Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.


It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins.

Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.


There's something to be said about the risk that the Phillies took on Arrieta and Santana. They knew that they had a lot of wiggle room in the next few seasons and therefore chose to pay what was likely a higher annual cost in return for less years.

I'm sure they weren't hoping to be trying to dump him right away in 2019, but only 2 years of commitment seems to make it more manageable to trade him than if he had something like 4 years at $12-15 million/each left. They also knew that even if he was playing better and they didn't want to deal him or that if they were simply stuck with him, his money would be off the books by the time they need to dig into the coffers for Nola, etc. (added to Corbin and/or Harper and/or Machado) if their plan comes to fruition.


Ya that's a fair point. The contract didn't necessarily hamstring them, but they still had a $35m mistake that they needed to get rid of. You can get Santana's production for about $6m on the free agent market.

Must be nice to have a big payroll that allows you to absorb big $$ mistakes.


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Online  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#24

Posted: December 03, 2018, 2:46 PM Post
Posts: 3622
Location: New Berlin, WI
This trade is a massive win for my dynasty fantasy league, I'm thrilled that Segura is moving to a fairly neutral hitting park...and will likely bat 1st or 2nd with Harper or Machado or both...and Hoskins as protection in the lineup. Counting stats for days.

As far as this trade, I think it's a good for both sides. On the surface, it looks like a better deal for the Phillies. Getting the all-star caliber SS with a lot of team control. I wouldn't completely underestimate JP Crawford though, he's still only 23 and was very highly regarded coming up. He's just as likely to start hitting as Arcia, or as Andrelton Simmons was before he broke out. The Mariners also cleared future payroll space and took on a bad contract that expires after 2020. There are also likely a couple bad years on the tail end of that contract Segura signed. He's a speed first player which drives a percentage of his batting average. That speed is going to start to go soon, and his stolen bases and avg will suffer a bit when it does. Segura probably has at least 2, possibly 3 really good seasons left before the speed and avg start ticking down a bit.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#25

Posted: December 03, 2018, 3:45 PM Post
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This move makes no sense for the Mariners if they aren't getting additional prospects. Crawford is not enough, especially when they're giving up a decent relief pitcher and taking on Santana's salary.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#26

Posted: December 03, 2018, 3:58 PM Post
Posts: 3622
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status ... 1680927744

I didn't realize the full deal, the Phillies getting those 2 relievers really tips the scales in their favor. The Mariners must really love Crawford. Neither reliever is really anything special. Solid/unspectacular MLB caliber arms.


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Online  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#27

Posted: December 03, 2018, 4:14 PM Post
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Location: Three Lakes, WI
Clancy isn’t going to be happy. He’s long wanted the Brewers to get Pazos.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#28

Posted: December 03, 2018, 4:50 PM Post
Posts: 1187
Anyone else wonder if we could have traded Arcia and Thames in a similar deal?


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Online  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#29

Posted: December 03, 2018, 4:52 PM Post
Posts: 3622
Location: New Berlin, WI
wallus said:
Anyone else wonder if we could have traded Arcia and Thames in a similar deal?


I'd strongly argue both our guys are better baseball players than the respective players traded. Arcia's contract situation is equal to Crawfords while Thames contract is far superior to Santana's.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#30

Posted: December 03, 2018, 4:58 PM Post
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Dipito looks like he’s auditioning for MLB networks first reality show titles biggest loser...

I feel for the Mariners fans like I felt for the Angels fans when Dipito was their GM... go Seahawks!

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#31

Posted: December 03, 2018, 5:13 PM Post
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The Weatherman
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bill hAll Star said:
;tldr above

The Mariners have a plan. It has a higher risk/reward than the Brewers' did. They could completely strike out on this rebuild that takes 3-5 years but their plan is to get high draft picks and have a blank slate payroll in 3 years (and they got some nice players back in these trades regardless). The Astros are the prime example of hitting a home run doing this.

I could understand letting Cano and other high $ guys rot on your payroll as you get a slightly better return on Diaz by himself and maybe not rushing a Segura deal. The Brewers were more in line with this. It worked for the Brewers, but I think a lot of other teams have failed doing this...and I'd argue if the "Astros plan" hits, it has a much higher ceiling.


I mostly agree, but a big key to the Astros' plan was talent identification and development. It is not clear that the Mariners are capable of the same and the return from some of these trades is questionable.

One aspect that I give the Mariners credit for is blowing up the roster at the right time while the pieces still have value.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#32

Posted: December 03, 2018, 6:00 PM Post
Posts: 3868
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Clancy isn’t going to be happy. He’s long wanted the Brewers to get Pazos.


No kidding I am NOT happy.

Pazos was a guy the Crew could have used.

Get him, sign Andrew Miller, the Crew has a pen to go to war with.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#33

Posted: December 03, 2018, 7:31 PM Post
Posts: 476
Location: Milwaukee
I dont get this trade at all. If Seattle is just trying to dump salary then why agree to a more expensive, less valuable player in return in Santana. Segura is currently better than Crawford and while older, is still under 30. They did dump Nicasio but he is likely going to have a rebound from his unlucky 2018 season. I would not have traded Segura for Crawford straight up, but then they took on a huge salary for two years and had to give up a useful LHRP as well.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#34

Posted: December 03, 2018, 8:52 PM Post
Posts: 2562
I think it's fairly obvious DiPoto has a trade addiction. Quality of the move sometimes seems less important than making a move.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#35

Posted: December 03, 2018, 9:22 PM Post
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MNBrew said:
I think it's fairly obvious DiPoto has a trade addiction. Quality of the move sometimes seems less important than making a move.


I think a lot of this kind of talk comes from the mandate of ownership to try to win with a roster that wasn't capable of winning and a farm system that didn't have the talent to get the players needed to make it happen so he needed to make a bunch of trades to improve around the margins and hopefully hit on a big one that put them over the top. Not exactly an easy thing to do.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#36

Posted: December 03, 2018, 9:26 PM Post
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Ya I have no idea what Seattle is trying to do here. Segura and Santana money-wise is close to a wash. In every other way though, Segura is head and shoulders above Santana. Then they are also throwing in 2, not great, but still major league quality arms to get a noodle bat middle infielder who's not even that good of a defensive player and has lost most of his prospect shine.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#37

Posted: December 03, 2018, 9:28 PM Post
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ClosetBrewerFan said:
I dont get this trade at all. If Seattle is just trying to dump salary then why agree to a more expensive, less valuable player in return in Santana. Segura is currently better than Crawford and while older, is still under 30. They did dump Nicasio but he is likely going to have a rebound from his unlucky 2018 season. I would not have traded Segura for Crawford straight up, but then they took on a huge salary for two years and had to give up a useful LHRP as well.

Nicasio is going to make $9.5M in 2019; that's like the Brewers dumping Soria, kind of a no-brainer.

I was scratching my head at first, but after seeing Nicasio's salary it's about a $30M savings for Seattle. They had to take on Bruce's and Swarzak's contracts to dump Cano. It's all about the long-term savings.

Santana will only be 33 next season, and he posted a .231 BABIP last year (career BABIP .265) with more BB than K. He could easily rebound to 2016/2017 numbers, and if he does, the Mariners will likely only have to eat at most $10M of his 2020 salary to trade him, saving them another $10M. Santana is a decent bounce-back candidate who, if he does bounce back, could be flipped for more prospects.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#38

Posted: December 03, 2018, 10:22 PM Post
Posts: 3488
MNBrew said:
I think it's fairly obvious DiPoto has a trade addiction. Quality of the move sometimes seems less important than making a move.


Agreed. I don't doubt that part of the appeal, to DiPoto, of acquiring Santana & Bruce & Swarzak is that he can trade them later...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#39

Posted: December 04, 2018, 9:19 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
Ya I have no idea what Seattle is trying to do here. Segura and Santana money-wise is close to a wash. In every other way though, Segura is head and shoulders above Santana. Then they are also throwing in 2, not great, but still major league quality arms to get a noodle bat middle infielder who's not even that good of a defensive player and has lost most of his prospect shine.


I think a lot of this comes to the debate of "do owners have it as a year-to-year budget or just an overall cost?"

I think it's a year to year thing, especially with the luxury tax being an issue for many teams. In which case, getting out of Segura's $ for years down the line is beneficial.

So then Segura/Santana is not close to a wash. Nicasio + Segura is $69 million (nice). Santana is $40 million. However, in 2021, the Mariners will have their hands clean of Santana. Their only substantial obligation in that season right now is Seager's $18.5 million in his final year (option the year after). Leake has a $5 million option/buyout. that's pretty much it.

That seems to be preferable to the rebuilding team instead of holding Segura. Sure, maybe you can find a better trade...but maybe you can't. And then you're holding the bag of a likely declining SS for $15 million/year for 2021 and 2022.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#40

Posted: December 04, 2018, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 1207
Location: Madison, WI
This looks like another terrible deal for Seattle after running the numbers.

It should be said that J.P. Crawford falls in that grey area, between 1 year and 2 years of service time, where it makes a surplus value estimate nearly impossible. Does one go by his former prospect ranking since his MLB sample size is so low? Or does one go by his MLB performance so far even though the sample size is so small?

So, for now, let's just ignore J.P. Crawford. We'll get back to him later.

Segura's average bWAR/fWAR over the last three seasons is 4.2. Let's ignore the option year but include the buyout on the option year. So he's under contract for 4 more seasons that includes his age 29, 30, 31 and 32 seasons. No reason to deviate from a 4.2 WAR average over the next three seasons, and then bump it down to 3.7 WAR for his age 32 season. Going with 1 WAR = 9 million and then increasing the 9 million by 3.4% annually over the next few seasons, it would make Segura's total value 154.2 million. He makes 57 million over the next four seasons, and add one more for the option buyout and he's guaranteed 58 million. 154.2 - 58 = 96.2 million in surplus value.

Juan Nicasio has averaged 0.9 fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons and is already 32 years old. Subtract 0.5 WAR from that for a 0.4 projected WAR in 2019. 0.4 * 9 = 3.6 million in value - 9 million salary = -5.4 million in surplus value.

James Pazos surprisingly has only averaged 0.4 fWAR/bWAR over the last two seasons and is only 27 years old. His total value for four years at 0.4 WAR per season comes out to 15.2 million. I'd project he'll make 7.75 million over those four seasons, that would give him a surplus value of +7.45 million

Carlos Santana has averaged 2.7 fWAR/bWAR over the last 3 seasons. The average fWAR/bWAR fell from 3.2 in 2017 to 1.8 in 2018. But just using the rule of thumb, he had a 2.7 WAR in 2018 so let's project 2.2 in 2019 and 1.7 in 2020. That would make his total value 35.6 million. He will make 35 million so it's nearly a wash. His surplus value is +0.6 million

So minus Crawford, here is the breakdown of what teams get:

Phillies get:
Jean Segura = +96.2 million in surplus value
James Pazos = +7.45 million in surplus value
Juan Nicasio = -5.4 million in surplus value
Total = +98.25 million in surplus value

Mariners get:
Carlos Santana = +0.6 million in surplus value
Total = +0.6 million in surplus value

The difference between the two is 97.65 million. So that is what J.P. Crawford would have to be worth to even out this deal.

If one goes by the adjusted Point of Pittsburgh prospect surplus value chart that I will be using for 2019, the #1 hitter has a prospect surplus value of 94.0 million.

Crawford is at 1 year, 20 days of service time. Average fWAR/bWAR so far is 0.8. Taking 0.8 x the 5 years he's still controlled would make him a 4 WAR player. 4 WAR x 9.65 million (let's say that will be the average WAR value over the next five seasons) = 38.6 million, and when subtracting out his salary would probably push is surplus value down to about 30 million.

If one goes back to his pre-2018 prospect rankings on the top 100 list, the average between Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com was #22. That would correspond to 68.7 million in prospect surplus value using the 2018 numbers...and one of those controlled seasons is gone.

Anyway that Crawford is evaluated, there is just no way to get his value up to 97 million to make this look like an even trade.

I'd guess that the best estimate might be to just take the average between the current numbers (0.8 WAR per season) and his pre-2018 value according to the chart. That would actually put his surplus value at 49.35 million.

Phillies get:
Jean Segura = +96.2 million in surplus value
James Pazos = +7.45 million in surplus value
Juan Nicasio = -5.4 million in surplus value
Total = +98.25 million in surplus value

Mariners get:
J.P. Crawford = +49.35 million in surplus value
Carlos Santana = +0.6 million in surplus value
Total = +49.95 million in surplus value

Note that even though I don't think there is any way one could reasonable get Crawford's value up to 97 million for the purpose of this exercise, it certainly wouldn't be impossible for him to achieve that. 97.65 in value / 9.65 million (roughly what one WAR will be worth over the next five seasons) = 10.1 WAR / 5 seasons = approximately 2 WAR per season. Then one has to figure that he'd probably make something like 11 million over that timeframe, that adds another 1+ WAR to the equation over those 5 years. Overall I think Crawford would have to average out to be a 2.3 WAR player over his five seasons to even this out. That isn't a crazy expectation as it's kind of in the same ballpark as what Starlin Castro has done over the last few years. But if Crawford busts, then the Mariners just gave Segura away, and his contract is actually pretty favorable to the organization considering he's still young and has been a 4+ WAR player over the last three seasons.

Bottom line is that the current numbers indicate this is another awful trade for the Mariners.


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