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Jean Segura to Phillies

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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#41

Posted: December 04, 2018, 9:43 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Bottom line is that the current numbers indicate this is another awful trade for the Mariners.


I love your analysis on these trades. It's a good way of valuing them.

That said, you also can't put a value on the ability to tank for the Mariners. Also to be added is the potential signing or acquisition that the Mariners do make with their savings in 2021 or 2022. I know that that is somewhat baked into the surplus value but it's clear in 2018 that many GMs/owners have decided that "you're winning or you're tanking."

That can suck for fans at times, but unless there was a much better offer waiting out there for the Mariners or one thinks it was worth waiting out, what's the difference? Are the Mariners fans going to be weeping over the fact that they won 65 games instead of 70 this year without Segura?

Maybe this move and ones that the Marlins/Rays made last year are cloaked greed moves by ownership. We'll see in 2-3 years for all 3 organizations. If they start spending with their blank slates in 2021 then I think these trades were good, regardless of what the talking heads think on value. I do think the Rays will never spend that big (but they're well-run at the baseball level) but the Marlins and Mariners are going to start spending when their rebuilds are complete.

Also of note, there wasn't really a market for Segura:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-phi ... re-market/

So their choice was to keep him around and see if something comes up midseason/next offseason or just do it now. I don't have a problem with what they did.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#42

Posted: December 04, 2018, 10:27 AM Post
Posts: 4211
NL will be filled with 88+win projected teams. AL with 4 100+ win teams. Brewers may win 90games finish 7th best record in NL. MLB wont see anything wrong though with Yankees/Red Sox winning 110 each.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#43

Posted: December 04, 2018, 12:34 PM Post
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Posts: 1139
bill hAll Star said:
JosephC said:
Bottom line is that the current numbers indicate this is another awful trade for the Mariners.


That said, you also can't put a value on the ability to tank for the Mariners. Also to be added is the potential signing or acquisition that the Mariners do make with their savings in 2021 or 2022. I know that that is somewhat baked into the surplus value but it's clear in 2018 that many GMs/owners have decided that "you're winning or you're tanking."

That can suck for fans at times, but unless there was a much better offer waiting out there for the Mariners or one thinks it was worth waiting out, what's the difference? Are the Mariners fans going to be weeping over the fact that they won 65 games instead of 70 this year without Segura?


Yes, I think clearly the Mariners are trying to not be good and that's fine. Making good personnel decisions is more important than the tearing down. Based on the initial moves I question whether or not this is going to work for Seattle. I would agree, I would rather see what can happen with a fully committed rebuild as opposed to being stuck in mediocrity.

Whatever plan you use to get there, the model pretty much includes
1. creating an army of prospects either to keep as your own players or use to acquire talent.
2. Align, the infusion of young talent through your minor league system up with financial flexibility in the payroll to fill in the gaps with above average talent from FA.

You still have to supplement the top picks "earned" from sucking with other acquisitions for it to work. Obviously the more FA dollars you can use when the time is right, the more leeway you have with step 1.

Sorry.. getting off topic at bit here

So I guess obviously for them step one is create future payroll space. It's too early to really make a judgement yet I suppose. I just think they could've done a better job combining some of their steps. They have a long climb to infuse that minor league system with talent. It's pretty bare.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#44

Posted: December 04, 2018, 1:01 PM Post
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Posts: 2347
NievesNoNO said:
bill hAll Star said:
JosephC said:
Bottom line is that the current numbers indicate this is another awful trade for the Mariners.


That said, you also can't put a value on the ability to tank for the Mariners. Also to be added is the potential signing or acquisition that the Mariners do make with their savings in 2021 or 2022. I know that that is somewhat baked into the surplus value but it's clear in 2018 that many GMs/owners have decided that "you're winning or you're tanking."

That can suck for fans at times, but unless there was a much better offer waiting out there for the Mariners or one thinks it was worth waiting out, what's the difference? Are the Mariners fans going to be weeping over the fact that they won 65 games instead of 70 this year without Segura?


Yes, I think clearly the Mariners are trying to not be good and that's fine. Making good personnel decisions is more important than the tearing down. Based on the initial moves I question whether or not this is going to work for Seattle. I would agree, I would rather see what can happen with a fully committed rebuild as opposed to being stuck in mediocrity.

Whatever plan you use to get there, the model pretty much includes
1. creating an army of prospects either to keep as your own players or use to acquire talent.
2. Align, the infusion of young talent through your minor league system up with financial flexibility in the payroll to fill in the gaps with above average talent from FA.

You still have to supplement the top picks "earned" from sucking with other acquisitions for it to work. Obviously the more FA dollars you can use when the time is right, the more leeway you have with step 1.

Sorry.. getting off topic at bit here

So I guess obviously for them step one is create future payroll space. It's too early to really make a judgement yet I suppose. I just think they could've done a better job combining some of their steps. They have a long climb to infuse that minor league system with talent. It's pretty bare.


There may be some ownership push in their dealings of shedding payroll this quickly, who knows. I'm not sure that Segura could've netted a ton more given the market and maybe they should've just dealt Diaz on his own instead of including Cano. Maybe they could've waited on Segura but there's risk to that.

That said, I don't think we're talking about multiple extra stud prospects if they had done those things. I'd call it a near wash on including Cano in the Mets deal, especially since the +/- on salary probably favored the Mariners quite a bit.

I'm going to just assume that the Mariners got likely the best package out there for Paxton, Cano, Segura, Diaz as of early December, 2018. Could they have squeezed an extra prospect or two out of it in July or next offseason? Maybe. I just don't think any of these guys had a ton of value save for Diaz, who they got some good prospects for. Nobody was giving up much for Segura at that contract as of today. There was not much of a market for him.

Dunn and Kelenic is a pretty nice haul for Diaz.


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Online  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#45

Posted: December 04, 2018, 1:09 PM Post
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Location: Three Lakes, WI
I keep pouring over that Seattle roster to see if there's anything of value left to pillage, and unfortunately there isn't much. Dee Gordon might be useful as a 2B I suppose. Haniger is a nice player, but they would have no reason to deal him other than stupidity. Swarzak was solid in his short time here, and would add another good arm to the pen.

Part of me wonders what kind of assets they would be willing to give up to a team to take King Felix's contract off their hands. There's only one year left on it, though, so it isn't a huge commitment. I wonder if there is any metric out there that points to any sort of career resurgence from him?


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#46

Posted: December 04, 2018, 1:17 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I keep pouring over that Seattle roster to see if there's anything of value left to pillage, and unfortunately there isn't much. Dee Gordon might be useful as a 2B I suppose. Haniger is a nice player, but they would have no reason to deal him other than stupidity. Swarzak was solid in his short time here, and would add another good arm to the pen.

Part of me wonders what kind of assets they would be willing to give up to a team to take King Felix's contract off their hands. There's only one year left on it, though, so it isn't a huge commitment. I wonder if there is any metric out there that points to any sort of career resurgence from him?


King Felix has been going downhill and has had some injury issues. He's likely going to ride out that final year unless the Mariners eat $22 or more million of the $27 or give up elite prospects, which as you note, they probably won't be inclined to do with a 1 year commitment.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#47

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:02 PM Post
Posts: 3623
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I keep pouring over that Seattle roster to see if there's anything of value left to pillage, and unfortunately there isn't much. Dee Gordon might be useful as a 2B I suppose. Haniger is a nice player, but they would have no reason to deal him other than stupidity. Swarzak was solid in his short time here, and would add another good arm to the pen.

Part of me wonders what kind of assets they would be willing to give up to a team to take King Felix's contract off their hands. There's only one year left on it, though, so it isn't a huge commitment. I wonder if there is any metric out there that points to any sort of career resurgence from him?


King Felix has been going downhill and has had some injury issues. He's likely going to ride out that final year unless the Mariners eat $22 or more million of the $27 or give up elite prospects, which as you note, they probably won't be inclined to do with a 1 year commitment.


Agree on Felix. The Mariners seem to generally be ok with taking on contracts that expire in the next 2 years, and clear up future payroll beyond 2020. That makes me think dumping the Felix contract is fairly meaningless to them.

Side note regarding future payroll, I wonder if they are trying to trim payroll to make a run at Trout after the 2020 season.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#48

Posted: December 04, 2018, 4:28 PM Post
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Posts: 1788
Location: At the gettin' place
long ball said:


Ya that's a fair point. The contract didn't necessarily hamstring them, but they still had a $35m mistake that they needed to get rid of. You can get Santana's production for about $6m on the free agent market.

Must be nice to have a big payroll that allows you to absorb big $$ mistakes.


He was a 3 WAR player when they signed him. Pretty sure he was worth a lot more than what you're stating. I agree he wasn't a very good fit there though.

Wasn't a bad contract at all. And still isn't.


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Offline  Re: Jean Segura to Phillies
#49

Posted: December 05, 2018, 12:42 AM Post
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Posts: 591
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I keep pouring over that Seattle roster to see if there's anything of value left to pillage, and unfortunately there isn't much. Dee Gordon might be useful as a 2B I suppose. Haniger is a nice player, but they would have no reason to deal him other than stupidity. Swarzak was solid in his short time here, and would add another good arm to the pen.

Part of me wonders what kind of assets they would be willing to give up to a team to take King Felix's contract off their hands. There's only one year left on it, though, so it isn't a huge commitment. I wonder if there is any metric out there that points to any sort of career resurgence from him?


Dee Gordon is owed $28 million over the next two years (which includes a buyout in year 3) and he's not better than what the Brewers had in Jonathan Villar. I'll pass.


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