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Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported

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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#21

Posted: December 04, 2018, 4:28 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Yea I should've prefaced that, pass with our budget limits. If I'm Nats or other big markets, yea 21 million isn't ridiculous for them and he's 28/29 instead of 32 like so many other FAs. That said, I still think he's a big regression candidate but if you have as much money as these teams it's an ok risk. Also think it's smart of him to stay in the NL and not go into the slugfest that is the AL East, or a bang box like Philly.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#22

Posted: December 04, 2018, 4:37 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Yea I should've prefaced that, pass with our budget limits. If I'm Nats or other big markets, yea 21 million isn't ridiculous for them and he's 28/29 instead of 32 like so many other FAs. That said, I still think he's a big regression candidate but if you have as much money as these teams it's an ok risk. Also think it's smart of him to stay in the NL and not go into the slugfest that is the AL East, or a bang box like Philly.


That's fair.

I will say that I've seen 40-50 of his starts over the last 2 years (fantasy baseball nerd). I don't see a regression candidate. He is damn good.

He throws damn near all sliders by my eye though. And he's a nibbler. Dudes stop swinging at the slider out of the zone, he could have trouble, because he has lost velocity recently. I'll be really interested to see how that contract turns out. He's a really strange pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#23

Posted: December 04, 2018, 4:37 PM Post
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Whoa. I liked Corbin but that's a bit steep.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#24

Posted: December 04, 2018, 4:56 PM Post
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502 to Right said:

The Brewers were 2nd in the NL in team OPS+ and you say they "can't hit."

Tough crowd.


But they did not hit in the postseason, which would be essential to them being in the World Series regardless of whether or not Corbin was here.

And they were still middle of the pack in runs scored despite the OPS+ because they had 2-3 guys who could hit while the rest of the lineup stunk.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#25

Posted: December 04, 2018, 5:24 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
This could make for a very fun winter meetings next week. This obviously helps set the market for FA pitchers, but also to some degree the trade market. And it could definitely add a bit of desperation as teams don't want to miss out on the best guys.

This offseason has definitely been more fun thusfar than last offseason.

Also makes legitimate SP prospects, such as Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and Brown, that much more valuable.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#26

Posted: December 04, 2018, 5:50 PM Post
Posts: 1821
How do I get a GM job? Good lord these folks running MLB operations are dumb. Enjoy that albatross Washington.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#27

Posted: December 04, 2018, 6:22 PM Post
Posts: 7523
MrTPlush said:
Only on the hook through his age 34 season? HUGE score for Nationals if he is for real. Absolute steal if so.

That being said little track record...pretty risky. $21mil isn't much these days and is hardly a crippling contract even if he regresses. Better than paying Harper if you ask me.


There are no such things as crippling contracts when you've got the league's wealthiest owner.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#28

Posted: December 04, 2018, 8:58 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
502 to Right said:

The Brewers were 2nd in the NL in team OPS+ and you say they "can't hit."

Tough crowd.


But they did not hit in the postseason, which would be essential to them being in the World Series regardless of whether or not Corbin was here.

And they were still middle of the pack in runs scored despite the OPS+ because they had 2-3 guys who could hit while the rest of the lineup stunk.


Despite the nice slash rankings, they were barely above average in runs per game, and well below average until the Moose trade and Yelich hot streak. The offense was incredibly top heavy and consistently put out a lineup with 3 pitcher-level hitters.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#29

Posted: December 05, 2018, 12:29 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
adambr2 said:
502 to Right said:

The Brewers were 2nd in the NL in team OPS+ and you say they "can't hit."

Tough crowd.


But they did not hit in the postseason, which would be essential to them being in the World Series regardless of whether or not Corbin was here.

And they were still middle of the pack in runs scored despite the OPS+ because they had 2-3 guys who could hit while the rest of the lineup stunk.


Despite the nice slash rankings, they were barely above average in runs per game, and well below average until the Moose trade and Yelich hot streak. The offense was incredibly top heavy and consistently put out a lineup with 3 pitcher-level hitters.



Any way you slice it, to say the 2018 Brewers "can't hit" is hyperbole at its best. But it's the internet so I shouldn't expect any different.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#30

Posted: December 05, 2018, 9:27 AM Post
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502 to Right said:
jerichoholicninja said:

Despite the nice slash rankings, they were barely above average in runs per game, and well below average until the Moose trade and Yelich hot streak. The offense was incredibly top heavy and consistently put out a lineup with 3 pitcher-level hitters.



Any way you slice it, to say the 2018 Brewers "can't hit" is hyperbole at its best. But it's the internet so I shouldn't expect any different.


Fine, they could hit but couldn't score runs. Does that make you happy?


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#31

Posted: December 05, 2018, 9:40 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
The offense was incredibly top heavy and consistently put out a lineup with 3 pitcher-level hitters.

So did Boston.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#32

Posted: December 05, 2018, 9:59 AM Post
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IMO, the ability to take on the risk involved with swimming in the deep end of the pool when it comes to pitcher free agent contracts is the single largest divide between the organizations with unlimited spending capabilities and the more financially burdened clubs.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#33

Posted: December 05, 2018, 10:02 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
IMO, the ability to take on the risk involved with swimming in the deep end of the pool when it comes to pitcher free agent contracts is the single largest divide between the organizations with unlimited spending capabilities and the more financially burdened clubs.


No doubt about it. The Brewers simply can't afford to miss on these types of things. If Corbin gets hurt they'll just throw another $100+ million at someone else. They have more money than anyone. I fully expect Harper to stay too.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#34

Posted: December 05, 2018, 11:49 AM Post
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Good move for a team that can afford it, since last season they bizarrely had starting pitching issues despite having the best pitcher in baseball and Stephen Strasburg. The NL East is going to be dangerous.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#35

Posted: December 05, 2018, 4:03 PM Post
Posts: 4248
Does anybody know how deferred money works with regard to the luxury tax?

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Online  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#36

Posted: December 05, 2018, 5:26 PM Post
Posts: 2737
StearnsFTW said:
tmwiese55 said:
Yea I should've prefaced that, pass with our budget limits. If I'm Nats or other big markets, yea 21 million isn't ridiculous for them and he's 28/29 instead of 32 like so many other FAs. That said, I still think he's a big regression candidate but if you have as much money as these teams it's an ok risk. Also think it's smart of him to stay in the NL and not go into the slugfest that is the AL East, or a bang box like Philly.


That's fair.

I will say that I've seen 40-50 of his starts over the last 2 years (fantasy baseball nerd). I don't see a regression candidate. He is damn good.

He throws damn near all sliders by my eye though. And he's a nibbler. Dudes stop swinging at the slider out of the zone, he could have trouble, because he has lost velocity recently. I'll be really interested to see how that contract turns out. He's a really strange pitcher.



I think this is my most heartbreaking loss of a FA that was never really linked to the Brewers...ever. Damn...I REALLY wanted him and thought his makeup was a perfect fit for the Brewers and the money was not prohibitive, especiallywith B raun coming off as some of the young guys are hitting Free Agency.


My guess is he'll have 2 more years as a legit ace, a 3rd year where he'sd a #2-ish pitcher and then 2-3 years where he's a good,solid, middle of the rotation pitcher who has some stretches of dominance. Lefty handers age well and he's just 29.


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Online  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal
#37

Posted: December 05, 2018, 5:33 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
502 to Right said:
jerichoholicninja said:

Despite the nice slash rankings, they were barely above average in runs per game, and well below average until the Moose trade and Yelich hot streak. The offense was incredibly top heavy and consistently put out a lineup with 3 pitcher-level hitters.



Any way you slice it, to say the 2018 Brewers "can't hit" is hyperbole at its best. But it's the internet so I shouldn't expect any different.


Fine, they could hit but couldn't score runs. Does that make you happy?



Right after he talked about you being hyperbolic? They couldn't score runs? Well...you just stated they were above league average in runs scored, right?

So they could in fact score runs.


I have a feeling if we'd signed the best free agent pitcher, a lefty with a mid 90's fastball and a dominant slider who struck out nearly 250 last year, you'd be happy about it. And I don't see there being much of a chance the Brewers are going to fix those three "pitcher-level hitters," spots since Pina and the catchers aren't likely to be upgraded(without giving up a ton) and were in fact right about league average, and Arcia struggled(though you want to parse when the Brewers offense actually went over the threshold for leave average in runs scored, you conveniently leave out Arcia's resurgence that started right around the additions of Moose...who by the way was not exactly a great offensive player(OPS+ 104).


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Online  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#38

Posted: December 05, 2018, 5:41 PM Post
Posts: 2737
Thurston Fluff said:
Does anybody know how deferred money works with regard to the luxury tax?




I JUST happened to read an article on how much the Nationals had to spend this season and how the Lerner family did not want to come close to the luxury tax for a 3rd straight year(that was before the Corbin signing, just laying out what the article stated) and they said that they use the average annual value of the contract for the competitive balance tax.


So I guess they money all counts against the luxury tax cap. At least that was what this article said and that was my best understanding of it. The figures used in the article were 140 million for money committed to contracts heading into this off-season, but 152 regarding the luxury tax. I was under the impression that Sherzer had even more money deferred per year and Strausburg had money deferred as well that would be more than 12 million, but I could be wrong on that.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#39

Posted: December 06, 2018, 5:56 PM Post
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HiAndTight said:
Thurston Fluff said:
Does anybody know how deferred money works with regard to the luxury tax?




I JUST happened to read an article on how much the Nationals had to spend this season and how the Lerner family did not want to come close to the luxury tax for a 3rd straight year(that was before the Corbin signing, just laying out what the article stated) and they said that they use the average annual value of the contract for the competitive balance tax.


So I guess they money all counts against the luxury tax cap. At least that was what this article said and that was my best understanding of it. The figures used in the article were 140 million for money committed to contracts heading into this off-season, but 152 regarding the luxury tax. I was under the impression that Sherzer had even more money deferred per year and Strausburg had money deferred as well that would be more than 12 million, but I could be wrong on that.


Thanks. I assumed that was the case. It would be to easy to game the system otherwise but it doesn't hurt to ask.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Corbin signs with Nationals - 6 year deal, $140M reported
#40

Posted: December 06, 2018, 8:08 PM Post
Posts: 4211
This is shocking to me because I often thought Chase Anderson was a similar ability pitcher who seen success when their FBs upticked on their breakout seasons. Well, this looks like a terrible deal possibly because in Corbin's case his FB declined to that lower norm around 90-91. But, his success would be attributed to changing from a changeup 3rd pitch and now throwing a Curveball 3rd pitch. His slider instantly became a very successful strikeout pitch through the roofs on its rating. I would expect a lot of adjusting by batters to his new style and sequencing and with a falling FB around 90MPH, I'd expect this hitters to make 18 look like an outlier.

We knew we'd see some ? deals this season vs last season. Get ready for worse deals than this!


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