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Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt

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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#41

Posted: December 05, 2018, 8:18 PM Post
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Good for the Cardinals. We didn't need a 1B. That's about all there is to this.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#42

Posted: December 05, 2018, 9:02 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
NievesNoNO said:
I agree with the Weaver- Woodruff comp. Honestly, I don't think the Brewers are looking at 1B as an area to upgrade. Fair deal on both ends imo. The Central just got more interesting.


Weaver is a very skinny, slight pitcher who averages about 93 MPH on his fastball. I think the Davies comp is a better fit.


In stature I suppose. Weaver averages 3-4 mph faster on his fastball and has a couple additional years of control. His K potential is bigger. Whatever, Davies is more accomplished so I can get on board with the view either way but I don't see the Cardinals valuing him as much. It sucks Goldy is a Cardinal. I'd love him in the middle of the Crew's lineup as well. I also like Aguilar just fine, especially at the cost and remaining control. I'm confident the Brewers won't go quietly. They've built a contender and it's time to take a shot at it. I think Mark A would be willing to expand payroll some if needed for the right piece. I look at what he's reinvested in Miller Park and the changes every single year. He takes pride in this franchise. There's also the fact that the Brewers haven't won one. I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of becoming a legend in this city/state.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#43

Posted: December 05, 2018, 10:29 PM Post
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I'll give credit when it's deserved, the Cards made a good trade for next season. Past that, it's a wait and see.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#44

Posted: December 06, 2018, 7:22 AM Post
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Goldschmidt gave the Diamondbacks 40.1 WAR for a career earnings total of just $31 million.

One reason I think the Cardinals may indeed be able to re-sign him is he may value certainty over the risk of waiting for a potential mega deal next off-season. I hope he doesn’t sign with them, but the amount of money St. Louis may offer him in a contract extension this off-season could be life changing for him and enough to entice him to bypass waiting for FA.

If the Cardinals don’t re-sign him they will get a compensation draft pick if he turns down the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, so that will help negate the loss of the draft pick in this trade.


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Online  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#45

Posted: December 06, 2018, 7:32 AM Post
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Looking at this trade, it appears that it is going to be entirely possible for the Brewers to make a trade for a solid, if not difference-making piece without having to give up multiple top prospects. While Paul Goldschmidt may only have one year left on his deal, he is a perennial MVP candidate whose still in his prime, and his contract payout is affordable. If this is the going rate for a stud player, we have been seriously overestimating what it's going to take to acquire guys like Realmuto and Merrifield, despite their longer control. It appears that players like Hiura and Burnes won't need to go anywhere for the Brewers to fill their holes with high end contributors, unless the other team is seriously overestimating the value of their trade piece.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#46

Posted: December 06, 2018, 7:46 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Looking at this trade, it appears that it is going to be entirely possible for the Brewers to make a trade for a solid, if not difference-making piece without having to give up multiple top prospects. While Paul Goldschmidt may only have one year left on his deal, he is a perennial MVP candidate whose still in his prime, and his contract payout is affordable. If this is the going rate for a stud player, we have been seriously overestimating what it's going to take to acquire guys like Realmuto and Merrifield, despite their longer control. It appears that players like Hiura and Burnes won't need to go anywhere for the Brewers to fill their holes with high end contributors, unless the other team is seriously overestimating the value of their trade piece.

It often depends on additional factors such as position scarcity as well as the type of needs and valuation system of the potential trade partner. Over the past year the Pirates (i.e. Gerrit Cole trade) and now Diamondbacks have made deals where they appeared to value major league ready role players. Other teams such as the Padres (i.e. Brad Hand trade) have taken less quantity while receiving a top prospect in return.

I do think top prospects currently carry as much trade value right now as ever. Also, I think the trio of young pitchers often mentioned (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta) would carry a good amount of trade value among the teams that favor major league ready pieces in return.


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Online  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#47

Posted: December 06, 2018, 8:03 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Looking at this trade, it appears that it is going to be entirely possible for the Brewers to make a trade for a solid, if not difference-making piece without having to give up multiple top prospects. While Paul Goldschmidt may only have one year left on his deal, he is a perennial MVP candidate whose still in his prime, and his contract payout is affordable. If this is the going rate for a stud player, we have been seriously overestimating what it's going to take to acquire guys like Realmuto and Merrifield, despite their longer control. It appears that players like Hiura and Burnes won't need to go anywhere for the Brewers to fill their holes with high end contributors, unless the other team is seriously overestimating the value of their trade piece.

It often depends on additional factors such as position scarcity as well as the type of needs and valuation system of the potential trade partner. Over the past year the Pirates (i.e. Gerrit Cole trade) and now Diamondbacks have made deals where they appeared to value major league ready role players. Other teams such as the Padres (i.e. Brad Hand trade) have taken less quantity while receiving a top prospect in return.

I do think top prospects currently carry as much trade value right now as ever. Also, I think the trio of young pitchers often mentioned (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta) would carry a good amount of trade value among the teams that favor major league ready pieces in return.


I get it. I guess the crux of my argument is that the Brewers have the depth of both MLB-ready role players and prospects that there probably isn't a guy out there on the block that they wouldn't be able to acquire if they really wanted him.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#48

Posted: December 06, 2018, 8:31 AM Post
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The ease with which teams are acquiring solid 1B's like Aguilar and Choi is part of the reason the return was so light for the D-Backs. How much are the Brewers really going to give up for a 1-year upgrade from Aguilar to Goldschmidt, especially when they can't be sure they'll be able to flip Aguilar for anything that helps the team now? It's a bit like acquiring Yelich and Cain and hoping you'll be able to trade Santana for something, except Yelich and Cain had 5 years of team control and Santana had an option, which is a pretty big difference for roster planning.

I probably would have beaten the Cardinals' offer anyway, assuming the D-Backs happened to like a comparable offer from the Brewers (which is not a given by the way - it always comes down to what the other team thinks of them, not how much the average observer values them). But that's because I still don't trust Aguilar to be anything more than a flash in the pan, even though I can't blame the Brewers for wanting to give him another year. That was surely part of the equation here.

Lastly, lest we forget, Goldschmidt started the year wretchedly. He had a .719 OPS through May in a hitter-friendly park. That's awful for a 1B. The last superstar 1B I remember starting a season so poorly without an injury issue or just being well past his prime was Pujols in 2011. They both turned it around, but I think there were some warning signs there. Incidentally, Pujols was 31 that year and Goldschmidt just turned 31. The Angels chose to ignore the warning signs and signed Pujols anyway. The Cardinals aren't taking nearly the same risk, but the point is not to say that it's a bad move for them; the point is that they might not have improved as much as people think, and that Aguilar might be better than Goldschmidt (at least at the plate) as early as next year.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#49

Posted: December 06, 2018, 9:14 AM Post
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It will really stink this upcoming year if Aguilar isn't good and Goldschmidt tears us apart. I wanted Paul badly in the middle of this lineup.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#50

Posted: December 06, 2018, 9:16 AM Post
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Luke makes a good point. If you look really hard, there's a lot to like and a lot of upside in the return for Goldschmidt...especially Carson Kelly is he can ever figure out how to hit. 700 OPS from him would make him an above average overall catcher with how good his defense is and will be.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#51

Posted: December 06, 2018, 9:55 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Seems like a reasonable return. A relatively highly rated defensive catcher that hasn't hit yet, a young, soft tossing pitcher on a down year, and an interesting flier, and a comp b pick. Definitely not as much value as some seemed to be expecting.

Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3.

Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most.

Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#52

Posted: December 06, 2018, 10:20 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Seems like a reasonable return. A relatively highly rated defensive catcher that hasn't hit yet, a young, soft tossing pitcher on a down year, and an interesting flier, and a comp b pick. Definitely not as much value as some seemed to be expecting.

Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3.

Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most.

Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.


Yep all the way around.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#53

Posted: December 06, 2018, 10:21 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Seems like a reasonable return. A relatively highly rated defensive catcher that hasn't hit yet, a young, soft tossing pitcher on a down year, and an interesting flier, and a comp b pick. Definitely not as much value as some seemed to be expecting.

Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3.

Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most.

Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.


Seems you are right on his velocity. I don't recall him throwing that hard. I thought he was more 91-92 with the occasional higher.

I also wouldn't say they sold at his peak, he definitely had more value last year, and even more the year before. It certainly was better to trade him now than the deadline though, but that's going to be true of the vast majority of players.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy. He was highly rated a year or two ago, but he's a defense first guy and has been a mediocre hitter in AAA and absolutely terrible at the MLB level. And he's actually 24, will turn 25 in July. Really he's not THAT young anymore. His upside comes with a team believing they can either fix him as a hitter, or that simply more AB at the MLB level will bring enough improvement to be a viable mlb catcher. I don't care how good your defense is, 400 OPS won't get you on the field...just ask Arcia.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#54

Posted: December 06, 2018, 10:28 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season.

Slightly younger than that, Goldschmidt turned 31 this past September.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#55

Posted: December 06, 2018, 10:57 AM Post
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STL wins this trade for 2019 otherwise I love this overall for AZ. For 1 yr of Goldy you land a quality arm who hovers around mid-90s with a plus change mixing in 3 other pitches occasionally and 5yrs cheap control along with a GG potential catcher who's a top 10 in the game if he solely manages to be average offensively at that position while having 6yrs control. He didn't start hitting until AA where he was almost 3yrs young for level then over the past 3yrs in AAA he's slashed 278/373/789 over 183 games being between 3.5 - 5.5yrs young for level. He also had a great AZFL being 1.5yrs young for that. Low K rate player with a very good BB rate the past 2.5yrs. His MLB career has amounted to 27 starts and a ton of pinch hits over the past 3yrs having zero consistency so I personally don't care one bit about his MLB production just like I don't care about Nottingham's 10 games last year. He's 10 months older than Nottingham too for age comparison sake. Then factor in the draft pick and a potential backup in a couple years.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#56

Posted: December 06, 2018, 11:08 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact.

Baseball America pre-2018: #56
MLB pre-2018: #46
Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44


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Online  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#57

Posted: December 06, 2018, 11:16 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact.

Baseball America pre-2018: #56
MLB pre-2018: #46
Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44


Kelly WAS a borderline top 50 prospect. Not anymore. You could say that about a ton of guys who are still young but have lost their prospect luster.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#58

Posted: December 06, 2018, 11:20 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact.

Baseball America pre-2018: #56
MLB pre-2018: #46
Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44


He was top 50...insinuating that alone makes him good value...is lazy. I'd argue it's lazier than "well fangraphs projects him for X WAR"...which is basically 90% of cubs message boards. At least the post above makes a bit more of an argument for him. Those were all pre-2018 rankings, and he had a very mediocre year at the plate in a very hitter friendly AAA...and was again bad at hitting at the MLB level for the 3rd year in a row. He's had chance after chance to establish himself at the MLB level as the backup catcher and hasn't been able to do it, and St Louis is clearly trading him for a reason over the other catcher in AAA. I can see why a team would like him, but he's not being valued by Arizona as a prospect around the top 50 of any current rankings would be valued.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#59

Posted: December 06, 2018, 11:36 AM Post
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Kelly got 14, 75 & 42 MLB plate appearances the last three seasons. The samples are so small & spread out as to be essentially meaningless.

In 2017 he batted 280 times at AAA & posted a 120 wRC+ with an 11.8% walk rate.

In 2018 he batted 349 times at AAA & posted a 107 wRC+ with a 13.8% walk rate.

Steamer projects him for an 85 wRC+ at the MLB level next year, which is the same projection they have for Pina & higher than the 69 they have projected for Nottingham.


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Offline  Re: Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt
#60

Posted: December 06, 2018, 11:55 AM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
Lastly, lest we forget, Goldschmidt started the year wretchedly. He had a .719 OPS through May in a hitter-friendly park. That's awful for a 1B. The last superstar 1B I remember starting a season so poorly without an injury issue or just being well past his prime was Pujols in 2011. They both turned it around, but I think there were some warning signs there. Incidentally, Pujols was 31 that year and Goldschmidt just turned 31. The Angels chose to ignore the warning signs and signed Pujols anyway. The Cardinals aren't taking nearly the same risk, but the point is not to say that it's a bad move for them; the point is that they might not have improved as much as people think, and that Aguilar might be better than Goldschmidt (at least at the plate) as early as next year.


Pujols was decent his first year with the Angels, and while he may not be a huge upgrade for the Cards at first, they can now put Martinez in the outfield and sit Fowler. That winds up being a pretty good upgrade offensively for the Cards. That and the fact they didn't give up a ton makes it likely a good deal for StL. Unfortunately. If the Cards sign Goldschmidt to a long term extension it will come back to bite them.


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