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Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE

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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#81

Posted: December 21, 2018, 11:07 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Jaylyn said:
Did Santana profile as a Stearns player? No, but to trade him now is a mistake. The solution was easy, move Jesus this year, sell high, move Braun to first and soft platoon with Thames. Let Santana man RF and build his value back up and move him next year. Instead, we will be discussing next year is this trade on the same level as the Khris Davis trade.


You have WAY more faith in Domingo Santana turning it around than I do.

Yes I do, Santana is not a spot start kinda player. Let me clarify, I agree with DS on getting players that are low K, high OPS types and Santana k's alot. Without the addition of Cain and Yelich, this team is no where near the playoffs and Braun with a $16 million contract is not going to be on the bench. Santana knew he was the odd man out and it was reflected in 2018. Trading Santana is not the issue, the timing is.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#82

Posted: December 21, 2018, 11:13 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
RollieTime said:
Seems to be a decent trade for the Brewers. Ground ball/line drive type of hitter that is a true spray hitter (33% pull, 37% center, 30% opposite). They are probably looking at him as a guy that can become more of a homerun hitter by changing his launch angle a little bit. If he maintains a .270 average and can become a 15-20 home run hitter, he will be very valuable. He could be a solid guy to platoon with Braun when he has his frequent days off or when an injury arises. Adding a solid lefty bat to hit in the 5 or 6 hole against righties isn’t a bad option.

I wonder if he could hit in the leadoff spot to allow Yelich to drop to third in the order? Brewers need a solid option to put at the top of the order in front of Yelich and don’t really have a solid option right now outside of Cain. Maybe Gamel is that guy.


Being able to spray to all fields negates shifts. That's a nice trait to have as Yelich showed. He's also hit lefties pretty well so is still useful in PH role.


Santana hits bombs. Santana > Gamel


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#83

Posted: December 21, 2018, 11:24 PM Post
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I think Stearns was with Houston when they traded Santana in the first place.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#84

Posted: December 21, 2018, 11:26 PM Post
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homer said:
I think Stearns was with Houston when they traded Santana in the first place.


He was. But he would also have been involved in trading away Josh Hader. [smile]


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#85

Posted: December 21, 2018, 11:43 PM Post
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Jaylyn said:
Yes I do, Santana is not a spot start kinda player. Let me clarify, I agree with DS on getting players that are low K, high OPS types and Santana k's alot. Without the addition of Cain and Yelich, this team is no where near the playoffs and Braun with a $16 million contract is not going to be on the bench. Santana knew he was the odd man out and it was reflected in 2018. Trading Santana is not the issue, the timing is.


Agree with much of this. Santana got a bit of a inadvertent raw deal imo. The guy was a legitimate top 15 Offensive OF in 2017, young and controllable. The type of player the Brewers seemingly should've been finding a spot for. I'm not disagreeing with what they did, but with how things played out Santana started the season on the outside looking in after an All-Star level season.

At this point as much as I hate to see him go, the deal is consistent with what the Brewers FO has been doing. Targeting versatility and flexibility both on the field and with roster manipulation and cost. I think it's a fair deal, but I think Santana has a big year and a real nice career going forward.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#86

Posted: December 21, 2018, 11:46 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
We are/were just fine with LH bats. Our best bats are LH. For RH bats we have Lorenzo Cain and that is about it. Maybe Aguilar, but big if after his 2nd half drought.

The trade does not bother me, but I don't understand the continuous clamoring by some for LH bats. We have enough lefty bats. If anything we could use a RH stick.

Basically the reason we didn't go to the World Series is that the strength of LA was left handed power arms and we didn't have the RH bats to counter.

Our best bats are LH? Granted, they're good, but that's still only Yelich and Shaw. I'd counter that Cain, Aguilar, and Braun (yes, in spite of his down 2018) are also very good bats and they're RH.

I think the LH bats issue mainly pertains to the bench, which, other than Thames, was entirely RH (Pina/Kratz, Perez (and Saladino), Broxton, & Santana before this deal went down). Having an LH bench bat that's not all-or-nothing (and mostly nothing at that -- sorry, Thames, but it's often true) and thus without much of a LH batting average weapon doesn't usually help us. Worse yet for me is that Thames' RBI/HR ratio was never spectacular, meaning he wasn't particularly strong at driving in runners when he wasn't hitting HRs. It sure seemed to me that Thames, for the past 2 years, has been quite good at hitting solo HRs.

I do think the past season soured many of us on what Santana could do at the plate. September & most of October were good testimony to what we're going to be missing. But I think there's another piece to this that no one's yet elaborated on in this discussion:

If Gamel's paid between $500-600k vs. an arby projection of $2M for Santana AND they can somehow trade Thames, that's a net savings of around $7.5M. That doesn't mean signing a Lowrie or Dozier, or trading for a Kluber or Bauer or whomever, is inevitable. However, that kind of savings can help open doors for the possibility of a new acquisition that fills a more pronounced need, whether that happens in the off-season or anywhere up to the trade deadline.

While it's more of a side note, I also think that, contrary to an opinion stated earlier, trading Thames doesn't leave us with no viable options at 1B if Aguilar slumps or gets hurt:

- Braun can play 1B but Shaw can play it better. Perez and even Pina (a bit) can play there, too.
- If Gamel & Broxton are both on the roster, both those two and Perez can play the OF better than Thames.

Besides the quality of players themselves, both of those bullet points underscore Stearns' regular emphasis on positional versatility.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#87

Posted: December 22, 2018, 2:11 AM Post
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I hope the Brewers have better luck with Ben Gamel then they did with his brother Mat. If I remember correctly he blew out each of his knees at the beginning of consecutive seasons.


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Online  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#88

Posted: December 22, 2018, 4:55 AM Post
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502 to Right said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
RollieTime said:
Seems to be a decent trade for the Brewers. Ground ball/line drive type of hitter that is a true spray hitter (33% pull, 37% center, 30% opposite). They are probably looking at him as a guy that can become more of a homerun hitter by changing his launch angle a little bit. If he maintains a .270 average and can become a 15-20 home run hitter, he will be very valuable. He could be a solid guy to platoon with Braun when he has his frequent days off or when an injury arises. Adding a solid lefty bat to hit in the 5 or 6 hole against righties isn’t a bad option.

I wonder if he could hit in the leadoff spot to allow Yelich to drop to third in the order? Brewers need a solid option to put at the top of the order in front of Yelich and don’t really have a solid option right now outside of Cain. Maybe Gamel is that guy.


Being able to spray to all fields negates shifts. That's a nice trait to have as Yelich showed. He's also hit lefties pretty well so is still useful in PH role.


Santana hits bombs. Santana > Gamel


Santana strikes out. Santana slow. Santana can't field. Santana is out of options. Santana cost more. Santana < Gamel.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#89

Posted: December 22, 2018, 5:54 AM Post
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This would have been impossible without Santana’s mini resurgence as a pinch hitter. I like the move. Spread Santana’s risk over a similarily valuable player in Gamel and an advanced arm. Domingo will hopefully do well for them too.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#90

Posted: December 22, 2018, 6:22 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
In addition to striking out 36% less often, "basically nothing" is also a better right fielder defensively than Santana. Of course, pointing out that defense matters and putting the ball in play is a good thing likely= Stearns worshiper.

Gamel - 90 games in RF the last 2 seasons (7 runs saved)
Santana - 199 games in RF the last 2 seasons (-8 runs saved)

Gamel - 11 OF assists the last 2 seasons (1757 innings)
Santana - 5 OF assists the last 2 seasons (1645 innings)

FYI, it doesn't hurt to do more than a cursory look at shallow batting stats.



Well that is an incredibly obnoxious statement...especially from someone using OF assists as a measuring stick for the two OF'ers. I can't think of many arguments worse than Assists per innings played for an OF'er to guage who's better. And by the way, OPS+ is more than a "cursory look."



That said, the Brewers didn't have a lot of choice here. Santana just didn't look like he fit in. He's probably going to out perform Gamel in Seattle, but if Gamel fits in better with what we need to do, defensive replacement for Braun, LH'ed bat off the bench...you can't really fault Stearns.

I doubt he wanted to move Santana and I'm sure if he had more room, he'd have preferred to keep a guy who put up a big year at 24 in 2017...but roster construction is part of his job. Gamel can get on the revolving train from SA to Milwaukee whereas Santana couldn't have.


So it's a little disappointing, but....not unexpected.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#91

Posted: December 22, 2018, 6:30 AM Post
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Jaylyn said:
Did Santana profile as a Stearns player? No, but to trade him now is a mistake. The solution was easy, move Jesus this year, sell high, move Braun to first and soft platoon with Thames. Let Santana man RF and build his value back up and move him next year. Instead, we will be discussing next year is this trade on the same level as the Khris Davis trade.



And if you're wrong about Aguilar, you sold a power hitting, middle of the order bat for gods know what in return(no clue where the rest of the league would value him at this point).

Seems like if you're this big of a fan of Santana, a guy who doesn't have a spot in the lineup, you'd be a bigger fan of Aguilar who does have a spot locked down as of now.

I also have zero problem with the Khris Davis trade and don't know why that's even being brought up anymore. People act as if we sold Davis to the Yankees to finance a Broadway show. We've still got a Catching prospect who's relatively highly touted in our farm system while Davis is a DH who is a .247 hitter...year after year after(you get the point).



I think you'd be more likely to regret trading Aguilar a year from now than Domingo Santana....but I don't speak in absolutes for the most part, so....


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#92

Posted: December 22, 2018, 7:08 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
We are/were just fine with LH bats. Our best bats are LH. For RH bats we have Lorenzo Cain and that is about it. Maybe Aguilar, but big if after his 2nd half drought.

The trade does not bother me, but I don't understand the continuous clamoring by some for LH bats. We have enough lefty bats. If anything we could use a RH stick.

Basically the reason we didn't go to the World Series is that the strength of LA was left handed power arms and we didn't have the RH bats to counter.


Arcia has been a quality RH at least for parts of the last 2 seasons. He's ready to put a full season together. No reason he can't. The talent is there.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#93

Posted: December 22, 2018, 7:12 AM Post
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Jaylyn said:
Did Santana profile as a Stearns player? No, but to trade him now is a mistake. The solution was easy, move Jesus this year, sell high, move Braun to first and soft platoon with Thames. Let Santana man RF and build his value back up and move him next year. Instead, we will be discussing next year is this trade on the same level as the Khris Davis trade.


Davis was emerging as one of the top power bats in all of baseball in the second half of 2015, his last year as a Brewer. His success with Oakland was foreseeable. I don't see Santana anywhere near that, and yet Brewers got back more for Santana.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#94

Posted: December 22, 2018, 7:15 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Jaylyn said:
Did Santana profile as a Stearns player? No, but to trade him now is a mistake. The solution was easy, move Jesus this year, sell high, move Braun to first and soft platoon with Thames. Let Santana man RF and build his value back up and move him next year. Instead, we will be discussing next year is this trade on the same level as the Khris Davis trade.


Davis was emerging as one of the top power bats in all of baseball in the second half of 2015, his last year as a Brewer. His success with Oakland was foreseeable. I don't see Santana anywhere near that, and yet Brewers got back more for Santana.


Davis also makes Santana look like Willie Mays in the OF. He should never touch OF grass again.

I know you didn't like that trade (obviously), but to hope Nottingham and Derby fail so you can be proven right is a bit much.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#95

Posted: December 22, 2018, 8:00 AM Post
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How did the deal make the Crew worse? Gamel is a better RF than Santana, a better hitter, LH bat off the bench, far less Ks than Santana, and has an option. Plus he is cheaper. The Brewers could use a contact type bat a lot more than another 34-35% whiff guy (Santana). Gamel is a .280's hitter against RH pitching with a nice OBP. I will concede the relief pitcher probably has zero chance of ever reaching the bigs.


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Online  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#96

Posted: December 22, 2018, 8:00 AM Post
Posts: 20709
3and2Fastball said:
adambr2 said:
We are/were just fine with LH bats. Our best bats are LH. For RH bats we have Lorenzo Cain and that is about it. Maybe Aguilar, but big if after his 2nd half drought.

The trade does not bother me, but I don't understand the continuous clamoring by some for LH bats. We have enough lefty bats. If anything we could use a RH stick.

Basically the reason we didn't go to the World Series is that the strength of LA was left handed power arms and we didn't have the RH bats to counter.


Certainly a valid point of view. The Cubs have a LH dominant pitching staff, too. I get it. Still, MLB is something like 70% RH Starting Pitchers, and Stearns specifically mentioned wanting to get another LH bat. Now, maybe he is just saying that and the main reasons he wanted Gamel is because of being able to option him and the lower cost/more control.

adambr, I always enjoy your point of view. You are right, we need more RH bats, too... In general we would benefit from more offense all around if we are going to take that next step. I think this is a small step in that direction. As much as I liked Domingo he really was a bit of a liability defensively, too


Hi 3and2, thanks for the kind words, I almost always agree with your POVs. You are right to say that as far as the regular season goes, typically we get matched up against RHP.

With that said it seems to me that we struggle to match up against LHP heavy teams. It really hurt us in the NLCS in my opinion, and I'd like to see us with a better chance if we get back.

I guess my point is -- our best bat, Yelich, was a 160 OPS+ guy, and Shaw is generally around a 120+. Aguilar might settle in around that same 120+, but other than that, our best RH bats, Braun, Cain, you're probably talking 110+ OPS bats. Above average, but nothing that is going to strike fear in a World Series caliber lefty heavy staff.

Someone like Goldschmidt probably is a big difference maker, but he's obviously only a bandaid and that ship has sailed anyway. It's the main reason I really wanted Wilson Ramos, but it sounds like he had his heart set on New York anyway.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#97

Posted: December 22, 2018, 8:35 AM Post
Posts: 754
Braun against LHP .246/.336 9/2
Aguilar against LHP .282/.379 9/21
Cain OPS 119. The Brewers were 9th in all of baseball in OPS last year. Very, very good for a low budget team.
What generally killed the Brewers was their high K rate in crucial situations. Failure to put the ball in play. That's what killed them in game 7 along with the pitching collapse. After setting MLB all-time records for whiffs in 2016 and 2017 they were 7th worst last year. More whiffs than any other play-off team.
They were also in the bottom 5 or 6 in errors.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#98

Posted: December 22, 2018, 9:34 AM Post
Posts: 1956
If you don't like this trade, the elephant in the room is Braun. It was incredibly foolish to get stuck with him all these years when they had a chance to trade him. He's gummed up the works for years and given very little value in return. His only good years since 2012 have been when the Brewers would have been better off losing more and rebuilding anyway.

- He moves Yelich out of his natural gold glove position. His range is less valuable in RF and his arm is more of an issue.
- They were forced to sell low on Santana to accommodate him, and could still lose Keon for next to nothing.
- I wouldn't doubt that they strongly considered trading Aguilar and making Braun the back-up 1B. Ponder that for a second.
- Could have kept Choi instead of him. Not an ideal RF, but OPS+ was 30 points better and OBP was 44 points better.
- Sold very low on Khris Davis. He was not a part of the future, but they had to trade him at the worst possible time to accommodate Braun moving back to LF.
- None of that even considers all the ways they could have spent his salary the last few years. All those guys are/were paid peanuts compared to Braun at the time, and all have been about as productive if not better over the last few years.

I'm resigned to it. I say this facetiously because I don't believe in karma, but it's retribution for how the Brewers succeeded in the 2011 playoffs thanks to Braun cheating. But what I don't get is how some people actually consider it a blessing that he's still on the team, as opposed to a hard lesson for everyone involved.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
#99

Posted: December 22, 2018, 9:38 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
We are/were just fine with LH bats. Our best bats are LH. For RH bats we have Lorenzo Cain and that is about it. Maybe Aguilar, but big if after his 2nd half drought.

If you are going to use Aguilar's 2nd half as a predictor of future performance, then you have to use Braun's 2nd half (.879 OPS) as a predictor of future performance as well.


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Offline  Re: Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE
Posted: December 22, 2018, 9:40 AM Post
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NievesNoNO said:
Agree with much of this. Santana got a bit of a inadvertent raw deal imo. The guy was a legitimate top 15 Offensive OF in 2017, young and controllable. The type of player the Brewers seemingly should've been finding a spot for. I'm not disagreeing with what they did, but with how things played out Santana started the season on the outside looking in after an All-Star level season.


Don't forget that the whole reason the front office added two expensive OF in the first place was presumably because they didn't trust Santana's success to continue once his flaws were exposed to MLB pitching.

They were arguably proven correct in 2018.


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