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Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?

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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#61

Posted: January 09, 2019, 9:30 PM Post
Posts: 920
Yikes. Vegas has the Baltimore line at 103 losses.


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#62

Posted: January 13, 2019, 12:44 PM Post
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The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#63

Posted: January 13, 2019, 1:31 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.


Thanks Burch Smith!


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Online  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#64

Posted: January 13, 2019, 1:36 PM Post
Posts: 341
Location: Washburn, WI
wallus said:
Eye Black said:
The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.


Thanks Burch Smith!


This is gold! [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#65

Posted: January 13, 2019, 7:41 PM Post
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The projections on the Fangraphs site show Arcia as being a below average defender.


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#66

Posted: January 13, 2019, 7:46 PM Post
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The Brewers are projected to have fewer wins than the Twins but are 4 times more likely to win the World Series. That tells you about the impact of difference in quality between the NL Central and most other divisions.


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#67

Posted: January 13, 2019, 8:40 PM Post
Posts: 709
I like fan graphs but they can be a bit “behind the times” sometimes. They never really figured out how to value high leverage relief like most of the league did several years ago. Anyway, it goes to show you how unconventional the brewers actually are with their pitching.


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Online  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#68

Posted: January 14, 2019, 9:36 AM Post
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stalton said:
Yikes. Vegas has the Baltimore line at 103 losses.


They are stuck as long as Angelos is alive.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#69

Posted: January 27, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
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Latest odds have 9 of the 13 most likely World Series champions coming from the NL (with the Brewers tied for 9th overall and tied for 5th in the NL). It's going to be a wild year, especially in the NL Central and NL East.

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-odds- ... es-futures


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#70

Posted: January 28, 2019, 11:47 AM Post
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As others have noted the Fangraphs projected standings do not yet have the ZiPS projections factored in. The current standings are based on Steamer projections, but will eventually also include ZiPS.

Dan Szymborski is the proprietor of the ZiPS projections. ZiPS data has not yet been released for the Brewers. In his Fangraphs chat today Dan added the following:

tim
The brewers are currently projected to finish last in the NL Central in 2019, according to the projected standings page. Do you buy that they will be closer to the Reds and the Pirates than they will be to the Cardinals and the Cubs?

Dan Szymborski
I think they'll be closer to the Cardinals and Cubs.
Like last year, ZiPS likes the Brewers more than Steamer.


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Online  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#71

Posted: January 28, 2019, 12:06 PM Post
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Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019? Let alone go from 1st to last in their division??

Once you factor in the recent adjustment for fangraphs projections of being biased negative by at least 15 wins, the brewers probably fall right where they should in terms of a 90ish win team projection in a very competitive yet hardly wart-free division


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#72

Posted: January 28, 2019, 1:17 PM Post
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Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019?

The projections hosted at FanGraphs currently have the Braves at 82 wins, 10 wins behind the Nationals & 3 wins behind the Mets.


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Online  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#73

Posted: January 28, 2019, 1:26 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
sveumrules said:
Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019?

The projections hosted at FanGraphs currently have the Braves at 82 wins, 10 wins behind the Nationals & 3 wins behind the Mets.


I find those projections to be a bit insane considering the young talent the Braves have. I know the Nationals have an elite rotation and are solid overall, and the Mets have improved...still seems crazy to project the Braves that low.


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#74

Posted: January 28, 2019, 5:19 PM Post
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Projections typically struggle the most with young players (less of a track record to draw from) & defense/relief pitching (higher year to year variation).

Teams who are counting on a lot of value coming from those particular areas will generally be under-projected.


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Offline  Re: Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?
#75

Posted: February 07, 2019, 10:59 AM Post
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Earlier in the thread I talked about Steamer, projections in general and how ZiPS and PECOTA would be interesting to follow. I also expected those systems to like the Brewers more. But now with PECOTA projections out, I'm a bit surprised at how much more positive they are. Win totals are down, but that's more to do with the entire division projected at .500 or better, it's going to be a real bloodbath!

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

The interesting thing about the Brewers individual projections is that none of them seem unrealistically high. The pitching ones are, as they tend to be, fairly conservative. Interesting to see that they expect Brandon Woodruff to be our most valuable pitcher in terms of WARP. Also noteworthy that they project the Brewers to have the 2nd best defense in the majors (Behind Cleveland) in terms of FRAA.


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