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Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers

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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#61

Posted: January 05, 2019, 8:51 PM Post
Posts: 2661
sveumrules said:
I figured teams would wait us out on both Domingo/Keon & try to pick them up for just a waiver fee out of spring training. That Stearns was able to deal both for interesting returns are two more checks for me under the "Maybe This Guy Knows What He's Doing" column.

Whether it was his first or second winter as Brewers' GM, I'm not sure, but I distinctly remember a pattern of Stearns consistently managing to get an additional player in the return on his trades, and at scattered levels of development (i.e., Brewers getting more players in return than they traded). Well, Santana & Broxton with their no-options got us Gamel, Zavolas, Wahl, Hill, & Valerio, with 3 of those 5 just finishing their 1st pro year. All in all, pretty darn nice work by Stearns.

Like the Lind trade at the time it went down, those young fellas may not turn into anything -- Lind deal was for 3 lottery tickets. Well, Peralta's already held a place in the Brewers' rotation and Carlos Herrera is still in the system, though not advancing in any glitzy way (yet). (Daniel Missaki never pitched for us after Tommy John surgery that happened during the season before he was traded to us). Point is, you never know and it takes time for the real story to play out.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#62

Posted: January 05, 2019, 8:54 PM Post
Posts: 2661
NYChez said:
If a player on another team’s 40-man is acquired through a trade, that player automatically is placed on the 40-man of the acquiring team, correct?

Yes. . . . The first response to your post seemed to take your post in reference to Broxton. I took in it response to Wahl.

Wahl was on the Mets' 40-man roster (per the team website), so he's now on ours.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#63

Posted: January 05, 2019, 9:01 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Felix Valerio had the second most plate appearances (303) in the Dominican Summer League last season. He had the fourth lowest strikeout rate (6.9%) among all qualified hitters in league. His .843 OPS and 146 wRC+ was far better than any of the Brewers qualified DSL hitters last season. He’s a long shot, but had a very solid professional debut.


Sounds like a Rodriquez & Valerio will be a fun top of order we may see soon


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Online  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#64

Posted: January 05, 2019, 9:02 PM Post
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I like this deal. Wahl profiles as a flame-throwing late-inning reliever, while Hill is yet another high-upside college arm. Valerio is a fun flyer as well. I think they did very well for a guy many felt had no trade value.

I wonder if this opens the door to a potential Curtis Granderson reunion?


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#65

Posted: January 05, 2019, 10:35 PM Post
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I really liked Keon, but he was simply a limited player due to his swing and miss issues. But he can still provide good value for a team that needs him - like the Mets. His skills - particularly his defense - will play well there.

Wahl looks like an interesting arm. Nothing wrong with adding interesting arms to the pen. Some pan out, others don't. Let's hope Wahl puts things together and can be quality contributor.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#66

Posted: January 05, 2019, 10:58 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
adambr2 said:
Outlander said:
I guess that talk of Broxton having no value wasn't exactly true. Best of luck to him in NY.


Even though Gamel is more of a known quantity than any of these guys. I think you could pretty legitimately argue that the Broxton return was better than the Santana return.

Stearns said there was additional interest in Broxton beyond just the Mets. I don’t remember hearing similar sentiments when Domingo was moved. I obviously don’t know this for certain, but I wonder if the number teams engaged in trade discussions involving Broxton was actually higher than Santana.


I remember reading there was more interest in Broxton that Santana last year as well. I thought it was just a rumor mill sort of thing but now I think there was something to that rumor.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#67

Posted: January 05, 2019, 11:08 PM Post
Posts: 399
I'll always look back fondly on those final few months in 2016 when he was the most interesting man in baseball, when Fangraphs was writing a new article every week trying to find the root of his success and scratching their heads for comparables who weren't lumbering first basemen.

It's too bad that the swing and miss issues kept him from consistently producing at that level because when he was on, man was it fun to watch.

Wahl and Hill also add to impressions I've had of the minor leagues staffs they are likely heading for (The AAA staff has a chance to be simultaneously very good and very interesting from a potential major league contributor perspective and you could probably put together 45 different predictions of what the Wisconsin pitching staff will look like and none of them would be any less plausible than any other).


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#68

Posted: January 05, 2019, 11:19 PM Post
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CheeseheadInQC said:
I'll always look back fondly on those final few months in 2016 when he was the most interesting man in baseball, when Fangraphs was writing a new article every week trying to find the root of his success and scratching their heads for comparables who weren't lumbering first basemen.

It's too bad that the swing and miss issues kept him from consistently producing at that level because when he was on, man was it fun to watch.

Wahl and Hill also add to impressions I've had of the minor leagues staffs they are likely heading for (The AAA staff has a chance to be simultaneously very good and very interesting from a potential major league contributor perspective and you could probably put together 45 different predictions of what the Wisconsin pitching staff will look like and none of them would be any less plausible than any other).


I don't think people fully appreciate how good Broxton's 2nd half was in 2016 before he broke his wrist running into the wall at Wrigley. He was amazing. I can understand why teams still want to dream on him.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#69

Posted: January 05, 2019, 11:21 PM Post
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Broxton 2016-18 | 796 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 3.5 fWAR | 4.2 bWAR
Santana 2016-18 | 1123 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 4.3 fWAR | 3.7 bWAR

Domingo & Keon are pretty good examples to illustrate what WAR is trying to accomplish. Santana is clearly the better hitter, while Keon is clearly the superior fielder. Who is provides more value pretty much comes down to if you believe Keon has saved about 15 runs on defense (DRS used in bWAR) or 7.5 runs on defense (UZR used in fWAR).

If Keon did indeed have more suitors than Domingo that would seem to be yet another data point confirming that there just isn't much of a market for players with limited defensive ability.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#70

Posted: January 05, 2019, 11:26 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
CheeseheadInQC said:
I'll always look back fondly on those final few months in 2016 when he was the most interesting man in baseball, when Fangraphs was writing a new article every week trying to find the root of his success and scratching their heads for comparables who weren't lumbering first basemen.

It's too bad that the swing and miss issues kept him from consistently producing at that level because when he was on, man was it fun to watch.

Wahl and Hill also add to impressions I've had of the minor leagues staffs they are likely heading for (The AAA staff has a chance to be simultaneously very good and very interesting from a potential major league contributor perspective and you could probably put together 45 different predictions of what the Wisconsin pitching staff will look like and none of them would be any less plausible than any other).


I don't think people fully appreciate how good Broxton's 2nd half was in 2016 before he broke his wrist running into the wall at Wrigley. He was amazing. I can understand why teams still want to dream on him.


Doesn’t he also lead the league in HR thefts after the 6th inning over the last 3 years? Some crazy stat like that


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#71

Posted: January 06, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
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I didn't like the Santana trade as the return was too little/not good, but I really like this Broxton trade.

If I knew that Broxton will be traded, I would have kept Santana.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#72

Posted: January 06, 2019, 8:23 AM Post
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Wahl reminds me of Corey Knebel.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#73

Posted: January 06, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Broxton 2016-18 | 796 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 3.5 fWAR | 4.2 bWAR
Santana 2016-18 | 1123 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 4.3 fWAR | 3.7 bWAR

Domingo & Keon are pretty good examples to illustrate what WAR is trying to accomplish. Santana is clearly the better hitter, while Keon is clearly the superior fielder. Who is provides more value pretty much comes down to if you believe Keon has saved about 15 runs on defense (DRS used in bWAR) or 7.5 runs on defense (UZR used in fWAR).

If Keon did indeed have more suitors than Domingo that would seem to be yet another data point confirming that there just isn't much of a market for players with limited defensive ability.


Though if either player were actually as good as those WAR numbers suggest, then I'm confused as to the need to trade one or the other. They're out of options but it's not like we don't need a fourth outfielder this year.

I imagine Stearns is not as high on either player going forward as the numbers suggest.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#74

Posted: January 06, 2019, 8:48 AM Post
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Stearns loves roster flexibility and players who don’t strikeout all the time. I don’t think these moves are shocking in the least. They’ll find OF depth. Already acquired Gamel, doubt he is done.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#75

Posted: January 06, 2019, 11:48 AM Post
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I can see the brewers starting the season with 4 "full-time" OF depending on how Spankenberg and Gamel look in ST (not that I encourage or approve of a few ST AB being weighted so highly). Thames, Spankie and Perez all can man the OF in a pinch. I expect them to go with a soft platoon of Braun/Gamel, with Cain and Yelich getting a majority of the starts at their positions. That, of course, is somewhat dependent on what additional moves the team does before the season starts. I think they are looking at adding at least 1 IF before the start of the season and that infield flexibility will lead to more IF manning OF positions late in games (mostly LF for Braun or RF when Yelich moves to LF). This is what I see right now:

C: Pina/Kratz
1B: Thames/Aguilar
2B: Perez/Spankie
3B: Shaw
SS: Arcia
OF: Braun, Cain, Yelich, Gamel

That's 12 position players. If they add another IF such as Dozier, that makes Perez/Spankie the backups across the diamond and 13 positional players. If they add Lowrie, then they could possibly either move Perez, or keep Spankie at AAA to start the season with minimal impact on flexibility as Lowrie can man most of the IF and go with 13 pitchers or add a 5th OF for depth. As I see it, as long as Thames/Perez are on the roster and they are targeting 2B candidates then we won't go with 5 OF to start the season... Of course it all becomes mute once Braun has his first extended tweak...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#76

Posted: January 06, 2019, 11:59 AM Post
Posts: 4396
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I like this deal. Wahl profiles as a flame-throwing late-inning reliever, while Hill is yet another high-upside college arm. Valerio is a fun flyer as well. I think they did very well for a guy many felt had no trade value.

I wonder if this opens the door to a potential Curtis Granderson reunion?


Possible, but more likely Tyrone Taylor ends up as the 5th OF. Gamel could be the 4th OF... big push now is to find a match for Thames... unless it's an Aguilar-Arcia-Shaw-Thames infield. But Gamel can play enough 1B and has seen time in CF.

Wahl does seem like another Knebel - or Turnbow. Could be an interesting flip candidate.

Hill and Zavolas are both interesting arms. Could be part of another pitching wave.

Valerio's .843 OPS is only eight points below that of Victor Vargas, who I put on my Top 25 list for the latest poll. Both have good OBP skills - Valerio makes more contact and may have more pop, but Vargas posted a .414 OBP. Vargas also matched Valerio's SB total in about a third of the ABs. Valerio is good, but part of a crowded infield at rookie level.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#77

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:01 PM Post
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From Fangraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen: Mets Trade Three Prospects for Keon Broxton’s Defense

As noted at the end of the article, all three players acquired have been added to the Fangraphs Brewers prospect rankings page (LINK).

Also an interesting note in the article that the Brewers weren’t the first team to ask about Valerio in trade talks.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#78

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:13 PM Post
Posts: 510
This off season so far has been all about keeping the overall depth of major league talent similar without having to lose the roster flexibility they had in 2018. As others have said, all of the moves they've made so far are at the margins of the roster and all of those players they've required come with at least 1 option.

Claudio, Gamel, Wahl, and Spangenberg all have at least one option left. Saladino was tendered likely because he has an option left while Jennings and Cedeno were non-tendered and an option-able lefty was acquire to replace them.

On the surface, I don't love giving up Broxton because I think he has a role on a contending ball club. I also understand Stearns' concern about being able to keep him on the 25 man roster all season. A combination of Taylor and Stokes can probably fill the role of 5th outfielder when needed, but will likely be in AAA most of the year.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#79

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 4396
sveumrules said:
Broxton 2016-18 | 796 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 3.5 fWAR | 4.2 bWAR
Santana 2016-18 | 1123 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 4.3 fWAR | 3.7 bWAR

Domingo & Keon are pretty good examples to illustrate what WAR is trying to accomplish. Santana is clearly the better hitter, while Keon is clearly the superior fielder. Who is provides more value pretty much comes down to if you believe Keon has saved about 15 runs on defense (DRS used in bWAR) or 7.5 runs on defense (UZR used in fWAR).

If Keon did indeed have more suitors than Domingo that would seem to be yet another data point confirming that there just isn't much of a market for players with limited defensive ability.


Broxton noted 1.6 WAR in 2018 despite a sub-Uecker line and having all of 89 plate appearances. That speaks to how impressive his defense is.

If he hadn't hurt his wrist in 2016... I wonder if the Brewers would have gone for Cain in the 2017-2018 offseason.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#80

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:22 PM Post
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Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


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