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Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers

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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#81

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:36 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


You really believe? I expect Gamel & Thames to get quite a few starts in the Outfield


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#82

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:36 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
From Fangraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen: Mets Trade Three Prospects for Keon Broxton’s Defense

As noted at the end of the article, all three players acquired have been added to the Fangraphs Brewers prospect rankings page (LINK).

Also an interesting note in the article that the Brewers weren’t the first team to ask about Valerio in trade talks.


Most interesting part is the reference to Tyrone Taylor's swing adjustment. Maybe the organization thinks he is back as a legit prospect and want him on the 25-man.


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Online  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#83

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:38 PM Post
Posts: 15763
Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#84

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:44 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?


Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!


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Online  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#85

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
Posts: 15763
Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?


Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!


[laughing] Fair enough!


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Online  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#86

Posted: January 06, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


I'd take that bet every time!

145 for Braun is a pipe dream. If he plays 125, I'll be amazed.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#87

Posted: January 06, 2019, 1:17 PM Post
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I would have been happy with any of these 3 in return for Broxton.

We do need to add a 4th OF who can actually produce some offense, but that's a completely separate issue.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#88

Posted: January 06, 2019, 1:40 PM Post
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Last year Hernan, Domingo, Thames, Keon, Granderson & Maverick combined for 565 plate appearances as outfielders & hit 231/304/402 (about an 85 wRC+).

Last year Ben Gamel hit 272/358/370 (108 wRC+).

I think we already have a 4th OF who can actually produce some offense.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#89

Posted: January 06, 2019, 1:58 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
Last year Hernan, Domingo, Thames, Keon, Granderson & Maverick combined for 565 plate appearances as outfielders & hit 231/304/402 (about an 85 wRC+).

Last year Ben Gamel hit 272/358/370 (108 wRC+).

I think we already have a 4th OF who can actually produce some offense.

Those OBP numbers are a significant upgrade and the main driver in the wRC+ increase. You can argue that Gamel has been equal to Braun the last 2 years (2.8 WAR/843 PA vs 2.9 WAR/872 PA). Not a bad pickup who is entering his age 26 season.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#90

Posted: January 06, 2019, 3:41 PM Post
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I like the trade. Nothing really against Keon, but this gives us some more potentially high upside talent in the pipeline, by trading from our position of excess outfielders.

The Paul Molitor Statue at Miller Park: http://www.facebook.com/paulmolitorstatue


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#91

Posted: January 06, 2019, 4:24 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


Well I guess that settles it.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#92

Posted: January 06, 2019, 5:03 PM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


Well I guess that settles it.


I know. I just hope Yelich and Cain can keep up.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#93

Posted: January 06, 2019, 6:13 PM Post
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Is Taylor remotely close to the quality of fielder that Broxton is?


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#94

Posted: January 06, 2019, 6:54 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.


He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?


Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!


Wow, what's the Easter Bunny gotta do to get some recognition?

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#95

Posted: January 06, 2019, 6:59 PM Post
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NYChez said:
Is Taylor remotely close to the quality of fielder that Broxton is?


Sadly no. That’s not so much a ding on Taylor but Broxton is pretty elite. Not many OFs in the game that have the range, speed, jumps he has. His 1.6 WAR essentially all from defense shows that.

Taylor is solid though, he has always been considered a good OF.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#96

Posted: January 06, 2019, 7:15 PM Post
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YoungGeezy1 said:
NYChez said:
Is Taylor remotely close to the quality of fielder that Broxton is?


Sadly no. That’s not so much a ding on Taylor but Broxton is pretty elite. Not many OFs in the game that have the range, speed, jumps he has. His 1.6 WAR essentially all from defense shows that.

Taylor is solid though, he has always been considered a good OF.


Sure, Keon was elite in 2018, but 194 innings is an extremely small, noisy sample.

There are 29 CF with at least 1,500 innings over the last three seasons.

Of that sample Keon ranks 13th in DRS (+13), 13th in UZR (+5.3) & 14th in UZR/150 (+4.5).

The larger sample shows he's much closer to an average CF than an elite one.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#97

Posted: January 06, 2019, 7:34 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:

He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?


Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!


Wow, what's the Easter Bunny gotta do to get some recognition?


Try getting respect being The Great Pumpkin...


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#98

Posted: January 06, 2019, 11:01 PM Post
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Going off statcast he’s been a top 20 performer over past 3 years. He hasn’t made many many 5 star plays or had many opportunities but he is completely locked down after 25%. I’m surprised how few opportunities he has had over the past 3 years. In 17’ when he started much of the season he finished 11. I like statcast data for OFs just because it shows you the range & how good they are at tracking balls and making really tough plays. Broxton is elite at 4 star plays compared to even the best out there. He is 2nd tier at 5 star plays. Cain is elite in all of these. 12th in 16, 4th in 17, and 3rd in 18 overall in ratings. Inciate is really the standard every year.

5 star (0 - 25% probability) 5 of 33 15%
4 star (25-50% probability) 20 of 24. 83%
3 star (51-75% probability) 25 of 28. 89%
2 star (76-90% probability) 28 of 30. 93%
4 star (91-100% probability)31 of 33 94%

Total: 119 of 138 86%

Now there is a lot more to defensive metrics than ability to run down balls... I get that but with limited opportunities he has had an average of 9 out above average. He’s a good amount above expected % and actual catch%.... this season he crashed everyone with catch percent added with 12%....

I dont know, to me, hard to call him average.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
#99

Posted: January 07, 2019, 12:14 AM Post
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I didn't say he was average, just closer to average than elite.

His DRS (+13, leader +61), UZR (+5.3, leader +30) & UZR/150 (+4.5, leader +15.4) ranks the last three seasons are all middle of the pack among CF & closer to zero/average than the top of the board.

Statcast is the most favorable on Keon's defense & they've got him at 26 Outs Above Average the last three years compared to 66 OAA for Inciarte, again closer to zero/average than elite.


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Offline  Re: Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers
Posted: January 07, 2019, 1:05 AM Post
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I'd say Broxton is well above average, if not excellent, on defense.

His biggest limitation is hit inability to make contact.


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