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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Offline  2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#1

Posted: January 08, 2019, 9:39 AM Post
Posts: 17400
Starters: Burnes, Chacin, Anderson, Davies
Middle: Woodruff, Nelson, Peralta, Guerra
Pen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio, Houser

I've got Barnes, Williams, Wahl, and Diplan in AAA as the first guys up for the pitching staff, with Supak as a deeper option. Albers is released, but could end up making the team if he has an impressive spring, which might result in Houser being moved.

I think they will ease Nelson back in in 2019 in more of the middle/piggyback role that they value highly rather than as a traditional starter. Just a hunch.

There's 13, and I categorized the pitching staff a bit differently to reflect our continued blurring of the starter/reliever lines. The lack of lefties in the starter/middle category is pretty glaring and I think that will probably be addressed before the season, whether it be Bumgarner or Miley or Gio. If so, bump Peralta or Guerra down to AAA for now.


Last edited by adambr2 on January 08, 2019, 9:54 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#2

Posted: January 08, 2019, 9:53 AM Post
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I wouldn't be upset if both Davies and Anderson were slated for rotation spots going into 2019, but both are solid mid-rotation starters on affordable deals who will likely be very appealing to teams with starting pitching shortages. That's why I personally think one, or even both, will be traded before Spring Training, and likely for a return that most are surprisingly impressed with. It would surprise me if they don't go with a stated traditional 5-man rotation to start the season at least. Guerra has already said that the Brewers have him preparing for a pen role next year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to be one of the top options, health provided. He looked terrific coming out of the pen at the end of last year, and his arsenal of pitches is a good fit there.

With Claudio and Hader both being lefties capable of going multiple innings, they are likely fine with their LHRP depth. I agree that they probably want another lefty starter, though, and will likely look at doing a 2-year deal with Miley if they don't go bigger for someone like Bumgarner or Kuechel.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#3

Posted: January 08, 2019, 11:15 AM Post
Posts: 510
Still kinda early to say anything definitive, but if the season started today this is what I think it would look like:

Anderson
Chacin
Davies
Woodruff
Burnes
Nelson
Guerra

Hader
Knebel
Jeffress
Claudio
Houser
Albers

Top group is guys I'd sorta expect to get stretched out as starters in spring training. I know Guerra has stated he expects to be a reliever in 2019, but I still think it makes sense that he's stretched out.

Bottom group are your more traditional relievers with Houser being the one who might get stretched out too.

Obviously Houser and Albers are the two guys who are most likely to change over the next couple of months, but if we learned anything from the Oliver Drake experience last season we are likely to see those guys break camp with the team unless they're moved in trade before then.

And like 2018, they might option one of these guys to start the season for a day or two with an extra position player like they did with Ji-Man last year.

Off the top of my head, the rest of the 40-man pitchers have options so they'll be in the minors to start with Peralta, Wahl, Williams, and Barnes being the initial shuttle crew.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#4

Posted: January 08, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Starters: Burnes, Chacin, Anderson, Davies
Middle: Woodruff, Nelson, Peralta, Guerra
Pen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio, Houser

I've got Barnes, Williams, Wahl, and Diplan in AAA as the first guys up for the pitching staff, with Supak as a deeper option. Albers is released, but could end up making the team if he has an impressive spring, which might result in Houser being moved.

I think they will ease Nelson back in in 2019 in more of the middle/piggyback role that they value highly rather than as a traditional starter. Just a hunch.

There's 13, and I categorized the pitching staff a bit differently to reflect our continued blurring of the starter/reliever lines. The lack of lefties in the starter/middle category is pretty glaring and I think that will probably be addressed before the season, whether it be Bumgarner or Miley or Gio. If so, bump Peralta or Guerra down to AAA for now.


Wouldn't mind trading Corey Ray for Bumgarner.
Would like to get Miley back on a short term deal.
Absolutely not interested in Gio.
Would probably option Zach Davis to the minors as I don't think he will beat Nelson, Woodruff or Burnes to a rotation spot.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#5

Posted: January 08, 2019, 2:01 PM Post
Posts: 4585
Location: New Berlin, WI
tigerbrew said:
Wouldn't mind trading Corey Ray for Bumgarner.
Would like to get Miley back on a short term deal.
Absolutely not interested in Gio.
Would probably option Zach Davis to the minors as I don't think he will beat Nelson, Woodruff or Burnes to a rotation spot.


We really shouldn't be optioning guys to the minors that are making over 2 million bucks. If the Brewers don't think Davies is making the team, we should find a trade partner and ditch the salary or cut him before opening day and save 3/4 of his salary.

I'll add that bringing in both Miley and MB would mean Davies and 1 other arm in the minors/out of the org. I would expect that we have at most 1 more pitching addition and that would likely result in Peralta being the 1st man out if everyone made it through ST healthy.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#6

Posted: January 08, 2019, 3:16 PM Post
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The Brewers have been mentioned in "Ace trade" talks too much for it to be coincidence. Attanasio has always said that he's willing to expand payroll for a truly special player, and I think the team is really trying to make a big trade for a top-line starter before the offseason is through.

I'm fine with going into the season with our current 2B and catcher positions if it means that we're adding someone like Kluber, Syndergaard, or Bumgarner to the top of our rotation. I haven't been as attentive this offseason as I have in the past, but it seems to me that this is what the Brewers are trying to do.

What the Brewers did last year worked in large part because they brought up multiple "Top 100" SP prospects and put them in the pen, shuffling them back and forth to the minors as needed. Since having multiple MLB ready Top 100 SP prospects to put in the pen isn't always an option, adding someone who can go deep into the game on a regular basis can keep the bullpen better rested, so Hader and the gang can be used on the nights they get shorter starts from the rest of the staff.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#7

Posted: January 08, 2019, 5:59 PM Post
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Chacin, Anderson, Davies, and Woodruff are in the rotation right now.

Impossible for me to say what Nelson's health is going to be, but if he's ready he will have the fifth spot and Burnes will be in the minors. Otherwise I think the fifth spot goes to Burnes.

Guerra, Houser, Albers, Claudio, Hader, Knebel, Jeffress are in the bullpen to start the season.

It's not that Burnes and Peralta haven't earned it, but they should be starting in AAA until needed.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#8

Posted: January 08, 2019, 6:14 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
tigerbrew said:
Wouldn't mind trading Corey Ray for Bumgarner.
Would like to get Miley back on a short term deal.
Absolutely not interested in Gio.
Would probably option Zach Davis to the minors as I don't think he will beat Nelson, Woodruff or Burnes to a rotation spot.


We really shouldn't be optioning guys to the minors that are making over 2 million bucks. If the Brewers don't think Davies is making the team, we should find a trade partner and ditch the salary or cut him before opening day and save 3/4 of his salary.

I'll add that bringing in both Miley and MB would mean Davies and 1 other arm in the minors/out of the org. I would expect that we have at most 1 more pitching addition and that would likely result in Peralta being the 1st man out if everyone made it through ST healthy.


Would be nice if we could trade Ray and Zach Davis for Bumgarner.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#9

Posted: January 08, 2019, 6:57 PM Post
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monty57 said:
What the Brewers did last year worked in large part because they brought up multiple "Top 100" SP prospects and put them in the pen, shuffling them back and forth to the minors as needed. Since having multiple MLB ready Top 100 SP prospects to put in the pen isn't always an option, adding someone who can go deep into the game on a regular basis can keep the bullpen better rested, so Hader and the gang can be used on the nights they get shorter starts from the rest of the staff.


You don't have to be a top 100 prospect to have success one trip through a batting order. If anything, greater use of 3 inning stints increases the number of pitchers a team can develop effectively because they don't need a 3rd pitch to be useful. It's not coincidence that Brewers social media is sticking with the term "initial out getter". What worked last year, worked for a reason that wasn't a fluke. And it's here to stay. I think the reason the Brewers would like another starter is because the transition away from specialists and 1-inning guys can't happen overnight. Another Chacin-like starter added to the group would be useful in covering innings not yet ready to be covered by everyone pitching 3-4 innings at a time. But that doesn't mean they're desperate or have to overpay to get one. Building depth and shuttling fresh arms back and forth is a permanent and very effective thing for a small market. And the pitching numbers that strategy generates will eventually provoke even large market teams to follow suit.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#10

Posted: January 08, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
Posts: 17400
SRB said:
Chacin, Anderson, Davies, and Woodruff are in the rotation right now.

Impossible for me to say what Nelson's health is going to be, but if he's ready he will have the fifth spot and Burnes will be in the minors. Otherwise I think the fifth spot goes to Burnes.

Guerra, Houser, Albers, Claudio, Hader, Knebel, Jeffress are in the bullpen to start the season.

It's not that Burnes and Peralta haven't earned it, but they should be starting in AAA until needed.


Depending on who we acquire, I think you can make a case for keeping Peralta down, but Burnes is too good not to be on the opening day 25. He was up for much of last year, too, so there's no service time game to play with him.

I can see an occasional AAA stint in 2019 to manage his workload, but other than that he needs to be in Milwaukee helping the Brewers win games.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#11

Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:21 AM Post
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Taking a discussion from the Madison Bumgarner trade proposal:
FVBrewerFan said:
I get the sense some folks think this is a temporary thing until they get the proverbial TOR starter or two. It's not temporary. Stats tell us overwhelmingly almost all pitchers fall off a cliff the 3rd time through the lineup. Stearns is and will take full advantage of this (at least until MLB changes the rules on shuttling players.)

As this approach develops you would expect to have an initial out getter who can go 5-6 innings, a second out getter who can go 2-3 innings and a final out getter of 1-2 innings. Three pitchers per game with the following estimates:

Out Getter #  Ave IP  Season IP (per pitcher)
Initial    5    5.0      162
Second     4    2.67     108
Final      3    1.33      72


Ideally you need a 12 man staff with 5 Initial Out getters that can go 5 IP (presumably your best pitchers the 1st/2nd time through a lineup.) These Iniitial Out getters would average about 160IP a year. You would need 4 pitchers that can go every 4th day and pitch 2-3 innings (average 2.67, with 108 IP per year). You would need 3 final out getters that can get you 1-2 innings every 3rd day or about 72 IP per year. None of those averages would put any stress on the pitchers arms or frequency of usage. With this approach you'd need 1/2 arms at AAA that can come up in a pinch if ineffectiveness/injury impacts availability.

The Brewers pitchers align as follows (without looking at stats):

Initial Out Getters
Chacin
Burnes
Anderson
Davies *
Peralta

Second Out Getters
Woodruff *(could be swapped with Davies)
Nelson
Guerra
Claudio

Final Out Getters
Hader
Knebel
Jeffress

A FA SP/Initial out getter pushes either Anderson/Davies to Second Out Getter or for Davies to AAA (or Peralta). Nelson starts out in the 2nd OG depending on how he handles Spring Training, but could also break camp in AAA for rehab. The Brewers have 8 pitchers who could swap between the 9 Initial and second out getter positions). Due to uncertainty with Davies and Nelson I think we still need to add another FA SP to the mix. These are all best case scenarios that 3 pitchers per day would suffice, in many instances one of the out getters won't go the needed distance and another pitcher would need to be brought in. Having a 13 man staff could provide the necessary flexibility, but shuttling players between AAA and MIL could also allow for a 12 man staff.

Edit: Depending on how Williams/Barnes develop they could easily replace Hader/Jeffress as Final OG and move Hader to 2nd OG (if/when Jeffress is less effective).

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#12

Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:35 AM Post
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Posts: 9782
tigerbrew said:
KeithStone53151 said:
tigerbrew said:
Wouldn't mind trading Corey Ray for Bumgarner.
Would like to get Miley back on a short term deal.
Absolutely not interested in Gio.
Would probably option Zach Davis to the minors as I don't think he will beat Nelson, Woodruff or Burnes to a rotation spot.


We really shouldn't be optioning guys to the minors that are making over 2 million bucks. If the Brewers don't think Davies is making the team, we should find a trade partner and ditch the salary or cut him before opening day and save 3/4 of his salary.

I'll add that bringing in both Miley and MB would mean Davies and 1 other arm in the minors/out of the org. I would expect that we have at most 1 more pitching addition and that would likely result in Peralta being the 1st man out if everyone made it through ST healthy.


Would be nice if we could trade Ray and Zach Davis for Bumgarner.


To be honest, that almost seems too much for a one year rental. Davies is no slouch. I think a lot of us have forgotten his value based on his injuries last year... Not that I wouldn't do it if it was the only offer on the table, but it seems high to me.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#13

Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
Posts: 4217
Location: Madison, WI
Call me crazy but I hate the initial out getter phrase. Initial means the same as starting. Out getter means the same as pitcher.

When the team started using it they were talking more along the one time through the order type of thing or starting a lefty to face a lefty then yanking, basically bullpen type days. Not for a guy who's starting on normal 5 days rest and hoping to go 5-6 innings/two times through the lineup until first sign of trouble. But now it's become a thing and people are gonna run with it.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on January 09, 2019, 12:13 PM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#14

Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:48 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Call me crazy but I have the initial out getter phrase. Initial means the same as starting. Out getter means the same as pitcher.

When the team started using it they were talking more along the one time through the order type of thing or starting a the lefty to face a lefty then yanking, basically bullpen type days. Not for a guy who's starting on normal 5 days rest and hoping to go 5-6 innings/two times through the lineup until first sign of trouble. But now it's become a thing and people are gonna run with it.


I agree. Hate it. Just saying "initial out-getter" sounds stupid. You're right ... it is synonymous with "starting pitcher".

Of course, I hate the idea of piggybacking starters too, but that's another argument. [wink]


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#15

Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:55 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
monty57 said:
What the Brewers did last year worked in large part because they brought up multiple "Top 100" SP prospects and put them in the pen, shuffling them back and forth to the minors as needed. Since having multiple MLB ready Top 100 SP prospects to put in the pen isn't always an option, adding someone who can go deep into the game on a regular basis can keep the bullpen better rested, so Hader and the gang can be used on the nights they get shorter starts from the rest of the staff.


You don't have to be a top 100 prospect to have success one trip through a batting order. If anything, greater use of 3 inning stints increases the number of pitchers a team can develop effectively because they don't need a 3rd pitch to be useful. It's not coincidence that Brewers social media is sticking with the term "initial out getter". What worked last year, worked for a reason that wasn't a fluke. And it's here to stay. I think the reason the Brewers would like another starter is because the transition away from specialists and 1-inning guys can't happen overnight. Another Chacin-like starter added to the group would be useful in covering innings not yet ready to be covered by everyone pitching 3-4 innings at a time. But that doesn't mean they're desperate or have to overpay to get one. Building depth and shuttling fresh arms back and forth is a permanent and very effective thing for a small market. And the pitching numbers that strategy generates will eventually provoke even large market teams to follow suit.


What was "a fluke" for lack of a better term, was the Brewers having guys with the talent of Hader, Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff that they used as multi-inning middle relievers. This is probably the best group of young pitchers the Brewers have ever produced at one time. Generally, the guys we (or anyone else) will put in this role will not be nearly as good as the guys we used in that role last year.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#16

Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 8295
Slightly OT, but related. Without looking, how many pitchers did the Brewers use last season?

Ok...now you can look. (I knew it was a lot but I was still surprised- even throwing out Perez/Kratz)

Everyone's "plan" looks pretty solid so far, but it will change significantly by April, and throughout the year.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#17

Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:04 PM Post
Posts: 4217
Location: Madison, WI
I'm gonna say 23? I didn't run down a list and try to remember names or anything, just a quick guess.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#18

Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:14 PM Post
Posts: 914
tmwiese55 said:
Call me crazy but I hate the initial out getter phrase. Initial means the same as starting. Out getter means the same as pitcher.

When the team started using it they were talking more along the one time through the order type of thing or starting a lefty to face a lefty then yanking, basically bullpen type days. Not for a guy who's starting on normal 5 days rest and hoping to go 5-6 innings/two times through the lineup until first sign of trouble. But now it's become a thing and people are gonna run with it.


I'm pretty sure they started using it long before Dan Jennings "started" a game, I think even during the preseason last year. Talking about out-getters, the run prevention unit and the position player group as a whole rather than starters/bench. And it was simply another word for the pitcher that started the game, which for most of the season was traditional starters, albeit ones with quick hooks. The term has its place IMO as a designation for a pitcher who starts games, regardless of whether it's Dan Jennings, Sergio Romo or Max Scherzer. Yes, the word literally means the same thing as a starter, but the term starter or starting pitcher obviously implies the usage we're all accustomed to.

What I've found interesting is that it would clearly have been a conscious decision to start using the term, and as we know from society at large is that changing how we talk about issues goes hand in hand with perception of them, and will often precede change. That the Brewers will be unconventional in their pitcher usage (At least for parts of it) has been clear for a while, but it's curious that they felt the need to preemptively attempt to change the vocabulary we use to talk about pitcher roles. Certainly speaks to a long-term plan and a clear philosophy, whatever that might end up being.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#19

Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:24 PM Post
Posts: 4217
Location: Madison, WI
True, true. Good points. Yea I don't recall for sure but of course just got blown up in the playoffs-ish timeframe. I think your last point is really the key to it though, they knew they'd be facing criticisms and fans asking what's going on so they tried to create a narrative to inform that they are doing something different and get used to it. I'm sure we all had a bunch of casual fans through the year saying, why did they yank X guy with only 71 pitches after 5 innings. This was kind of them letting everyone know they're thinking outside the box.

ETA: And good point below to their own guys as well that you and every out is important whenever you pitch.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on January 09, 2019, 4:00 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
#20

Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:27 PM Post
Posts: 8295
tmwiese55 said:
I'm gonna say 23? I didn't run down a list and try to remember names or anything, just a quick guess.


That was my "off the top of my head" guess as well. 30! Well 28 if you remove Kratz/ Perez.

Initial Out Getter- Yea, it sounds weird. But I get why they're using that language. They want to reinforce with their pitchers that they're all equally valuable. These guys have gone through their whole lives and careers with this ingrained in their heads: Starter >>> Closer >> Set-up Man > middle/long relief. So while I don't really love the term, I get it.


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