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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 10:17 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
We are now over 1/3rd through the season, so seems like a good time to check back in our pitching staff & how they stack up around the league.

Apr 20:

K9 9.34 (12th) BB9 3.94 (22nd) HR9 1.85 (28th)
ERA 5.21 (25th) FIP 5.07 (25th) xFIP 4.34 (17th)

What I said then: The only thing dreadful is a fluky high HR9 (which can happen over less than 200 team IP thus far) which is driving the poor ERA/FIP numbers.

I'd bet our ERA/FIP are closer to our current xFIP at season's end than their current levels.

May 9:

K9 9.33 (9th) BB9 3.66 (20th) HR9 1.51 (26th)
ERA 4.60 (21st) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.14 (10th)

What I said then: So in just under three weeks our current ERA/FIP have almost caught up with our xFIP from April 20th, while our current xFIP has lowered to a top 10 mark on account of our gains in BB9/HR9 & other teams' losses in K9.

Interesting to note is that our ERA is currently underperforming our xFIP, while over the last three years it has been the exact opposite with our ERA outperforming our xFIP by an average of 0.30 per season. (3.94 ERA vs 4.24 xFIP, 2016-18)

Assuming DJ's pixie dust wasn't solely responsible for that, it could indicate that our pitching staff is due for even more positive regression than some of the surface level indicators say.

May 28:

K9 9.22 (9th) BB9 3.55 (19th) HR9 1.46 (24th)
ERA 4.34 (15th) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.22 (11th)

So it only took about five weeks for our ERA to catch up with our xFIP from April 20.

Our FIP/xFIP also appear to be stabilizing, though the ERA continues to fall. If we can continue our three year trend of outperforming our xFIP we should have no problem getting the team ERA below 4.00 by year's end.



Not asking you to do this and maybe I will if I find the time but I'd be curious how that compares to the Reds.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Colome is arby eligible in 2020 and a FA in 2021. He'd cost a lot more than Soria because he's better than Soria and still controllable (if the team wants to pay him) for another year.


I see that now. My bad. Not the first time I've been confused by MLB contract statuses.

I agree ... with that control, he'd be expensive.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 10:28 AM Post
Posts: 3060
wntrtxn21 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
I don't think Yates is going anywhere. The Padres are going to be in the wild card hunt. Think Colome or Barraclough for pen help.


No on the bear, pitching terrible.
Colome will be very expensive prospect wise and salary.

Just sign Kimbrel. Costs only $. and we’d get him for 2 1/2 years.


$$ is the problem in signing Kimbrel. He reportedly hasn't backed off his demand of $15.5 per yr on minimum 3 yr. deal.


I don’t think it’s the problem most think it is. So if it is what you say, I read 3 at 15 per, but instead 3 at 15.5 then great, that’s roughly 10 mil this year, and we have him for our next 2 years window.

But that’s just me, with the crew generating record profits this year and all mlb teams getting an extra 9 mil next year from fox and another 8-10 mil the following year with the new turner/ espn deal so that’s an extra 17-19 mil per year and that doesn’t include the crew’s new local deal for next year, and Braun’s 16 mil off the books, so they CAN afford it IF they think he can be a difference maker.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 10:33 AM Post
Posts: 1956
I expect Burnes to be an asset in the pen towards the end of the year, but he's got to work out his issues in AAA. I predict it's going to be a lot like Woodruff's 2018 season. You'll recall high expectations for him after some impressive moments in spot duty in 2017, but then he fell flat on his face and wasn't much of a factor until after the ASB.

Pretty normal stuff really, although the extent of Burnes' struggles are anything but normal even for a young guy.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 11:12 AM Post
Posts: 3060
coolhandluke121 said:
I expect Burnes to be an asset in the pen towards the end of the year, but he's got to work out his issues in AAA. I predict it's going to be a lot like Woodruff's 2018 season. You'll recall high expectations for him after some impressive moments in spot duty in 2017, but then he fell flat on his face and wasn't much of a factor until after the ASB.

Pretty normal stuff really, although the extent of Burnes' struggles are anything but normal even for a young guy.


Ok, most on this site agree with you, so what exactly does Burnes need to work on in AAA?

To me, he looks better right now than he did last year out of the pen, a tick more on the FB if nothing else.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
coolhandluke121 said:
I expect Burnes to be an asset in the pen towards the end of the year, but he's got to work out his issues in AAA. I predict it's going to be a lot like Woodruff's 2018 season. You'll recall high expectations for him after some impressive moments in spot duty in 2017, but then he fell flat on his face and wasn't much of a factor until after the ASB.

Pretty normal stuff really, although the extent of Burnes' struggles are anything but normal even for a young guy.


Ok, most on this site agree with you, so what exactly does Burnes need to work on in AAA?

To me, he looks better right now than he did last year out of the pen, a tick more on the FB if nothing else.



Well, he's not supposed to be a reliever for one. So qualifying it with he looks better out of the pen just skips over the fact that he failed badly as a starting pitcher.

But I think everyone's pointed it out. His fastball location has been bad this year. That's why he's got an ERA just shy of 10 now and that's why he's giving up HR's at a ridiculous rate.

I don't know how you can say he looks better this year in any way than he did last year.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 28, 2019, 11:39 AM Post
Posts: 3060
HiAndTight said:
Brew crew 92 said:
coolhandluke121 said:
I expect Burnes to be an asset in the pen towards the end of the year, but he's got to work out his issues in AAA. I predict it's going to be a lot like Woodruff's 2018 season. You'll recall high expectations for him after some impressive moments in spot duty in 2017, but then he fell flat on his face and wasn't much of a factor until after the ASB.

Pretty normal stuff really, although the extent of Burnes' struggles are anything but normal even for a young guy.


Ok, most on this site agree with you, so what exactly does Burnes need to work on in AAA?

To me, he looks better right now than he did last year out of the pen, a tick more on the FB if nothing else.



Well, he's not supposed to be a reliever for one. So qualifying it with he looks better out of the pen just skips over the fact that he failed badly as a starting pitcher.

But I think everyone's pointed it out. His fastball location has been bad this year. That's why he's got an ERA just shy of 10 now and that's why he's giving up HR's at a ridiculous rate.

I don't know how you can say he looks better this year in any way than he did last year.


Agree, starting he was a disaster, but of 10 relief appearances he’s only had one bad outing, albeit really bad, the rest good. Maybe the crew believes, as I do, that sending him to to AAA again not needed and the brewers, like I, think he can help the pen big time moving forward.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 31, 2019, 9:43 PM Post
Posts: 4529
Me thinks it's time to call up Nelson to start and piggy back Chacin afterwards. Chacin needs to take a break starting. Only 3 starts of 12 reached the 6th inning and he's averaging less than 5IP a start now. Woodruff/Davies have their spots nailed down. Gio/Nelson/Anderson to be interchangeable with Chacin/Peralta. I really think this team needs to adopt 2 of these 5 as piggyback with all 5 getting starts when showing they have a hott hand going. For his poor start, the team only used 2 from the bullpen today.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 31, 2019, 11:02 PM Post
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"We've got to figure out a way to get him pitching" was Counsell's response twice when asked directly if Chacin would remain in the rotation. That's as close to a "no" as you're going to get immediately following a game.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 31, 2019, 11:27 PM Post
Posts: 2393
folly412 said:
"We've got to figure out a way to get him pitching" was Counsell's response twice when asked directly if Chacin would remain in the rotation. That's as close to a "no" as you're going to get immediately following a game.


A way could be him getting a Guerra role.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 31, 2019, 11:58 PM Post
Posts: 606
folly412 said:
"We've got to figure out a way to get him pitching" was Counsell's response twice when asked directly if Chacin would remain in the rotation. That's as close to a "no" as you're going to get immediately following a game.


Chacin is pitching like garbage in his walk year. If Nelson comes up, Chacin is the prime candidate to go to the pen. Burnes or Peralta (maybe both when Shaw comes back) go down.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 12:43 AM Post
Posts: 2393
Let me put this in the more appropriate thread too...
"Agree, starting he was a disaster, but of 10 relief appearances he’s only had one bad outing, albeit really bad, the rest good. Maybe the crew believes, as I do, that sending him to to AAA again not needed and the brewers, like I, think he can help the pen big time moving forward."

4 appearances allowing 7 3 3 2 in 5 ip is pretty rough.

7 good outings 10IP at a 0.00 ERA
4 bad outings 5IP at a 27.00 ERA
63% good outings

When do you go to him? And lets compare...

12 good outings 12IP at a 0.00 ERA
4 bad outings 3.2IP at 29.45 ERA
75% good outings

Burnes has been very similar to Barnes this year in the pen. Sending him down was pretty unanimous. This is not to say anything bad about Burnes. At 24 after flying up the system a lot of us expected great things from Woodruff. 2 years later that's looking like its coming to fruition. After 8 starts at 4.81 ERA at 24. Burnes could need the same thing. Got his majors taste at 24, back to AAA for the year. Next year show up in the 2nd half mostly out of the pen. 2021 the road could be less bumpy. I'm good with a delayed if that nets quality 5 years of control. He has to fix his FB control. He has to trust and control his full starters profile of pitches. He's too young.


Last edited by TJseven7 on June 01, 2019, 12:59 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 12:47 AM Post
Posts: 2393
wntrtxn21 said:
folly412 said:
"We've got to figure out a way to get him pitching" was Counsell's response twice when asked directly if Chacin would remain in the rotation. That's as close to a "no" as you're going to get immediately following a game.


Chacin is pitching like garbage in his walk year. If Nelson comes up, Chacin is the prime candidate to go to the pen. Burnes or Peralta (maybe both when Shaw comes back) go down.


Unlike Burnes, Peralta has actually been a godsend out of the pen. 12.1IP 2.19 ERA 12h 3bb 13k in 4 outings. I'd prefer him to stay a 2-3IP reliever.

The era has gone from 8.31 to 5.68 in his last 5 outings and 1 of the 5 was a 4IP start. No one here wants 4IP starts.

I like the look of Peralta Hader shortening games to 5 innings in the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 7:22 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Here’s what I’d do:

Call up Wilkerson Nelson to the rotation, Anderson Chacín to the pen, Houser Peralta Burnes to AAA to stretch and start.

12 man staff.

Rotation:

Woodruff
Davies
Gio
Nelson
Wilkerson

Wilkerson has nothing left to prove down below, 0.45, and should be given an opportunity to start at the big league level. Nelson has shown down below he can be at a minimum 4/5.

Bullpen:

Anderson
Chacín

Claudio
Albers
Jeffress
Guerra
Hader

All pen arms can pitch multiple innings except Claudio in high leverage.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 12205
I can easily see Chacin coming up with a phantom injury (shoulder tightness for instance) and being replaced by Nelson. Don't the Dodgers do that all the time with their 8 or 9 starters? I don't see Jhoulys going to the pen.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 1:27 PM Post
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Per Adam McCalvy...

Link #1: Brewers are placing Gio Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list what Craig Counsell described as a case of dead arm. No pain, just a “not right” feeling, CC said, perhaps related to his late signing.

Manny Pina activated from the IL in the corresponding move.


Link #2: Zach Davies will start Sunday in Gio's spot.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 2:33 PM Post
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They technically don't need a starter until Saturday. I could see Chase going on normal rest Tuesday, then Jimmy taking Chacin's spot on Wednesday. Chacin is either given a few extra days and starts Saturday or we get someone else in. Maybe give one more shot to AAAAron Wilkerson, who has nothing left to prove in the minors.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 3:12 PM Post
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Gio's IL stint was retroactive to his start on Wednesday, so if it's a minimum length stint he could return to make the start himself on the 8th. Essentially just skipping him once in the rotation.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 01, 2019, 6:09 PM Post
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I can see Jimmy getting a start next weekend, with Chacin and Anderson pitching to see who comes out when Geo is back


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 02, 2019, 7:52 AM Post
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I don’t believe the crew is going to recall Nelson at a minimum, until he’s back on 4 days rest between starts. When he’s on 4 days and recovering well, I would think his call-up would be imminent at that point.

Hoping for a shakeup with the pitching staff. Chacín to the pen, replaced by Wilkerson, with Peralta to AAA to get stretched.

Then when Nelson’s back, Anderson to the pen, with Burnes to AAA to stretch.

That would potentially help the rotation go deeper with Wilkerson being more efficient with his pitches and Nelson being a potential horse again.

The pen would have 3 starter arms and that alone should give much needed rest to Hader Jeffress Guerra.


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