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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 12, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 12, 2019, 11:13 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
The Brewers Pitching ERA as a team this year is about a full run higher than in 2018.

Is this the impact of losing pitching coach guru Derek Johnson?


I think a better stat would be to see where the team ERA sat on June 12 of last season, if you want to make an apples to apples comparison.


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"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 12, 2019, 7:22 PM Post
Posts: 2247
Location: Madison, WI
Through 67 games last year the pitching staff had given up 69 home runs, this year the number is up to 96.

Through 67 games last year the Brewer batters had hit 83 home runs, this year the number has gone up to 117.

One could argue that Moustakas and Grandal have a lot to do with that, but to counter that, one could argue that Shaw and Aguilar's near no-show should off-set the Moustakas and Grandal additions. And we are not talking about a jump from 83 to 93....it's a jump from 83 to 117.

Balls are juiced and IMO it's essential to account for that when judging this pitching staff.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 12, 2019, 8:56 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Through 67 games last year the pitching staff had given up 69 home runs, this year the number is up to 96.

Through 67 games last year the Brewer batters had hit 83 home runs, this year the number has gone up to 117.

One could argue that Moustakas and Grandal have a lot to do with that, but to counter that, one could argue that Shaw and Aguilar's near no-show should off-set the Moustakas and Grandal additions. And we are not talking about a jump from 83 to 93....it's a jump from 83 to 117.

Balls are juiced and IMO it's essential to account for that when judging this pitching staff.


Burnes is almost singly responsible for the huge increase in HRs given up. Hader also has given up a lot more than he did at this time last year. The juiced ball also has something to do with the balls flying out this year.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 12, 2019, 11:07 PM Post
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Yup. Balls are clearly juiced & expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

League Averages:

HR/9 in 2018: 1.16
HR/9 in 2019: 1.36 (so far)

HR/FB% in 2018: 12.7%
HR/FB% in 2919: 14.9% (so far)

Here are our league adjusted ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- marks during the Stearns era. 100 is average, lower is better:

2016: 97/104/107
2017: 91/97/99
2018: 91/97/99
2019: 105/100/97

What's interesting to me is that in each of the three previous seasons our FIP outperformed our xFIP & our ERA outperformed our FIP. Maybe it's a crazy coincidence, maybe DJ really had/has the magic dust, maybe it has something to with having plus defenders & a forward thinking front office, maybe it's a combination of none or some of those things. I won't pretend to know.

This season it has been the exact opposite to this point. That gives me additional confidence that our ERA- will end the season closer to (or hopefully even lower than) our current xFIP- of 97 than it will to the 105 it is at momentarily.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 13, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
Posts: 5202
Location: Madison, WI
True. I saw something a few weeks ago that HRs in AAA have gone up 50% this year. I don't know if it's leveled but I doubt by much. Apparently they just started using the same balls as MLB this year. Pretty clear to me something is up


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 13, 2019, 6:18 PM Post
Posts: 3060
xisxisxis said:
tmwiese55 said:
we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.


We’re getting closer. With Chacín being activated Monday to the rotation and Peralta probably to the pen, with Barnes going back down, that will strengthen the front of the pen. No Barnes, by itself, strengthens the pen, but with Houser emerging as a real weapon to go with Peralta, I believe the crew can keep games closer.

When Barnes is sent down, our bullpen, imo, will be as strong as any pen we had last year, including the post deadline pen. And if Burnes can get his command just a little better, we might not need a pen arm at the deadline.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 13, 2019, 6:30 PM Post
Posts: 1815
Brew crew 92 said:
xisxisxis said:
tmwiese55 said:
we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.


We’re getting closer. With Chacín being activated Monday to the rotation and Peralta probably to the pen, with Barnes going back down, that will strengthen the front of the pen. No Barnes, by itself, strengthens the pen, but with Houser emerging as a real weapon to go with Peralta, I believe the crew can keep games closer.

When Barnes is sent down, our bullpen, imo, will be as strong as any pen we had last year, including the post deadline pen. And if Burnes can get his command just a little better, we might not need a pen arm at the deadline.



I agree with this pen potentionally being as good as last years pen until September. Once Knebel figured things out and we picked up Soria last years pen went to another level that I'm not sure this pen can reach.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 13, 2019, 6:52 PM Post
Posts: 3060
Knebel was unhittable in September but Jeffress also started his decline, and Guerra is better than Soria. Claudio > Jennings, Houser = Woodruff, pretty close top to bottom imo. With the potential to get better with Nelson or Chacín or Anderson or Gio joining at some point moving forward. Should be the best NL bullpen.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 13, 2019, 7:04 PM Post
Posts: 753
Brew crew 92 said:
xisxisxis said:
tmwiese55 said:
we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.


We’re getting closer. With Chacín being activated Monday to the rotation and Peralta probably to the pen, with Barnes going back down, that will strengthen the front of the pen. No Barnes, by itself, strengthens the pen, but with Houser emerging as a real weapon to go with Peralta, I believe the crew can keep games closer.

When Barnes is sent down, our bullpen, imo, will be as strong as any pen we had last year, including the post deadline pen. And if Burnes can get his command just a little better, we might not need a pen arm at the deadline.


I don't see the pen being anywhere close to what they had last year. No Knebel to close and no Woodruff in the pen. Hader is giving up the long ball too often and not as consistent as he was last year. CC can't count on Peralta or Burnes. Peralta is all over the place and who knows what Burnes is going to do when he gets in. Ditto with Albers, Williams, and Barnes. Houser has been a real pleasant surprise and could be better than Soria. Jeffress is coming on as the weather gets warmer and last night he hit 96 consistently with a good breaking ball and his splitter may have been the best all year. They need one very good late inning type guy to be close to what they were last year.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 13, 2019, 7:11 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
What's interesting to me is that in each of the three previous seasons our FIP outperformed our xFIP & our ERA outperformed our FIP. Maybe it's a crazy coincidence, maybe DJ really had/has the magic dust, maybe it has something to with having plus defenders & a forward thinking front office, maybe it's a combination of none or some of those things. I won't pretend to know.

It's complex and we probably won't know for sure the impact of each of the components, but I would add that pitch selection/sequencing may be a very important area where DJ excelled.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 8:07 AM Post
Posts: 3905
You can manipulate the numbers, you can write thesis on the subject and you can put a whole lot of lipstick on that pig, but the bottom line is we don't have enough pitching.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 8:42 AM Post
Posts: 1815
I think it is safe to say that so far the Chris Hook experiment has been a dismal failure.

I would have thought they could have at least found a guy with big league experience for the job instead of a AAA guy working the bigs for the first time.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 8:48 AM Post
Posts: 156
At this point of the season Cincy has the 4th best ERA in MLB and the Brewers are 18th. Its far enough into the season to say that we desperately miss Derek Johnson.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 9:06 AM Post
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Yeah, those that blew off the departure of DJ were just wrong...


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 9:32 AM Post
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Yet, here we are with this terrible pitching coach in 1st place. The best pitching coach in last place. Reminder that it’s a team game and a pitching coach doesn’t make or break a team. Tough crowd.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 10:24 AM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
Yet, here we are with this terrible pitching coach in 1st place. The best pitching coach in last place. Reminder that it’s a team game and a pitching coach doesn’t make or break a team. Tough crowd.


Even so, being in first place doesn't mean that if you have an area of need doesn't mean you shouldn't look to improve. If Hook isn't doing his job to a satisfactory effort then it's fair to point out that Johnson was doing a better job with the same (or mostly same) group of pitchers. The Brewers have 39 wins right now, but could they have 42 or 43 if the pitching coach was getting better results from his pitchers? That's a fair question. Pitch sequence is something that matters. Pitch location, landing point, release angle all those things that a coach has an impact on (and more) and it's fair to question how much of an impact the coach does (or doesn't) have on those results, and how those results impact wins and losses.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
Yet, here we are with this terrible pitching coach in 1st place. The best pitching coach in last place. Reminder that it’s a team game and a pitching coach doesn’t make or break a team. Tough crowd.


I guess I just really don't understand this. Team game? Yes. Pitching coach make or break a team? Well, your PITCHING can most certainly make or break your team, the degree that that is attributable to your pitching coach can be debated.

The best pitching coach in last place dig at DJ seems odd. The Reds have given up 91 less runs than us this year. Are you saying it wouldn't be beneficial to us to have given up that many less runs?

I don't really know if Hook has done a good or bad job. But I do know I can't think of a single pitcher on this staff that has improved from last year outside of Zach Davies. That's troubling.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 10:52 AM Post
Posts: 3905
Talent level might have a little bit to do with this. Cubs, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies (our main competition right now) all have far better pitching than we do. I mean, Davies or Woodruff might squeak in as a five on a couple of those rotations and not even sniff the other couple. I think it's a credit to hook that we are as close to those teams as we are. The contenders in the NL just have far more arm talent than we do.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
Posts: 1815
82brewcrew82 said:
Talent level might have a little bit to do with this. Cubs, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies (our main competition right now) all have far better pitching than we do. I mean, Davies or Woodruff might squeak in as a five on a couple of those rotations and not even sniff the other couple. I think it's a credit to hook that we are as close to those teams as we are. The contenders in the NL just have far more arm talent than we do.


To me it's not are the pitchers is good as the Cubs or Dodgers or anyone else.
The real question is are they as good as they can be. And on that count I don't think so.

Do we have exceptional arm Talent.. probably not. But there is a lot more than we're getting out of them at this point and it's a combination of mechanics, pitch selection and game planning.


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