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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 3:37 PM Post
Posts: 3602
Brew crew 92 said:
Yeah yeah, still doesn’t change the silliness of yours.

Gosh, your sucha bully. What a witty response.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 3:42 PM Post
Posts: 2917
82brewcrew82 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Yeah yeah, still doesn’t change the silliness of yours.

Gosh, your sucha bully. What a witty response.


I’ll give you the last word, so you know, you can feel like you owned me, again.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 3:50 PM Post
Posts: 1003
JosephC said:
Thanks.

Holy crap, can talk about small sample sizes all we want but the difference between Grandal and Pina is pretty staggering. I kind of suspected that Pina would be better but never to that extent. I almost have to wonder if those numbers are correct? If this continues then Pina should be catching a lot more and Grandal can get more time at 1B.

The eyeball test told me pretty early in the year that Baseball Prospectus catching metrics were garbage and I haven't seen anything recently to make me think otherwise.


Well what the eyeball test tells you in that situation is that you disagree with the metrics, rightly or wrongly, not that they're garbage. The whole point of these metrics, and so many others from the sabermetric era, is that what looks good or bad isn't always what it seems. It's not at all easy to with the eye test recognize that one catcher gets 1% more called strikes than another, and it's not immediately obvious how many runs that adds up to over thousands of pitches. But the eye test can easily spot are things like passed balls, that always look bad. But giving up a couple of passed balls more than the average catcher over the course of a season doesn't really give up very many runs. Over the years there have been many attempts, by many different people, at quantifying the value of framing, using various different approaches. And they all reach similar conclusions, that it can cost or save double-digit runs compared to the average. And they all find the same players to grade out well or not.

Now what BPros catching metrics don't tell us anything about, and don't attempt to as I don't know how it can really be quantified, is how well a catcher calls a game. But at the same time, looking at something as blunt as cERA over 127 innings is borderline useless. Statisticians stress sample sizes for a reason, it's not something to just ignore. Which teams did they catch against? Who were the pitchers? And so forth. Maybe Grandal is a horrible game caller, I honestly wouldn't know, even if I doubt it. But in terms of what can be quantified rather well, i.e blocking, throwing and framing; he is a good catcher.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 3:54 PM Post
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Knock it off with the personal crap and 3rd grade insults. Seriously.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 5:49 PM Post
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The Brewers’ overworked bullpen has thrown 203 pitches in the last four days. The Padres’ bullpen has thrown 427 pitches in the last four games! Hopefully it’s advantage Milwaukee heading to the San Diego series.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 5:56 PM Post
Posts: 2917
NYChez said:
The Brewers’ overworked bullpen has thrown 203 pitches in the last four days. The Padres’ bullpen has thrown 427 pitches in the last four games! Hopefully it’s advantage Milwaukee heading to the San Diego series.


I’m sure there’ll be reinforcements, but still, hoping it hurts them.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 6:19 PM Post
Posts: 392
sveumrules said:
Sure, DJ has been more successful with his staff in Cincy than Hook has with his staff here. I don't think anyone is trying argue otherwise.

When accounting for changing run environments & understanding that comparing full season team ERA to 70 games of team ERA is folly it is less clear that Hook is a dismal failure or that we don't have enough pitching.

Our 2019 xFIP- (far more reliable than ERA after 70 games) of 97 is right in line with the 99 mark we posted under DJ in both 2017 & 2018.


Brewer pitchers' FIP this year so far: 4.38. Last year 4.01. Very significant difference. ERA 4.37. Last year 3.97. Those two stats says this year's staff is quite a bit worse than last year. It depends on what stats you want to use.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 7:05 PM Post
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League Average FIP 2018: 4.15
League Acerage FIP 2019: 4.44

League Average ERA 2018: 4.15
League Average ERA 2019: 4.44

Looking at the raw numbers is misleading because the run environment has changed drastically from last year on account of the boom in home runs. The ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- marks I have cited account for that difference.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 7:20 PM Post
Posts: 1003
wntrtxn21 said:
sveumrules said:
Sure, DJ has been more successful with his staff in Cincy than Hook has with his staff here. I don't think anyone is trying argue otherwise.

When accounting for changing run environments & understanding that comparing full season team ERA to 70 games of team ERA is folly it is less clear that Hook is a dismal failure or that we don't have enough pitching.

Our 2019 xFIP- (far more reliable than ERA after 70 games) of 97 is right in line with the 99 mark we posted under DJ in both 2017 & 2018.


Brewer pitchers' FIP this year so far: 4.38. Last year 4.01. Very significant difference. ERA 4.37. Last year 3.97. Those two stats says this year's staff is quite a bit worse than last year. It depends on what stats you want to use.


The problem with using raw numbers is that the run environment changes from year to year, especially with whatevere it is they're doing with the baseball this year. Last year the league average ERA and FIP was 4.15, so far in 2019 it's 4.44. In terms of raw FIP Brewers ranked 13th in 2018, 14th in 2019. ERA- still sees a large difference, but FIP- is 97 vs 99. It does indeed depend on which stat you want to use, and in small samples xFIP which sveumrules used, especially the league- and park-adjusted xFIP-, is superior to FIP and ERA when it comes to correlation with future run prevention. Especially in this case, since the difference is HR rate, which is a notoriously noisy stat.

So essentially there's one variable, the least predictive and least reliable, that suggests the team has been significantly worse compared to last year. There's another, the second least predictive and reliable, that suggests it's been slightly worse. The remaining ones that I'm aware of (xFIP, SIERA, cFIP, DRA) all actually says that the team has been better this year. Some of them only in relative terms (i.e compared to the rest of the league), some in absolute terms.

I'm not going to claim that they necessarily have been, but there's a lot to suggest they haven't been worse. What's important to factor in is also what's going to happen going forward. The season started with Peralta and Burnes in the rotation and with Alex Wilson closing out games early on. The phase of trying to figure out what you've got and what you need was a rather rough one for the Brewers, and it's still not entirely clear who will have what role of Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Peralta. But much is clearer now than it was early on. I believe the run prevention will be better going forward, both because the metrics suggests it, but also because I believe we will on average be using better pitchers. Whether that's through guys who have joined the club during the season (like Gio or Houser), or have gotten better as they've gotten healthier and stronger (like Jeffress), or simply using some guys differently or guys just settling in to their roles. The fact that the Brewers to this point still has had the toughest schedule is another thing to factor in, even if it's fairly minor.

And when a team outperformed their FIP last year, but are underperforming it this year, look to the defense (And luck/sequencing/randomness, but nothing to do about that so no point bothering really).


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 7:35 PM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
Knock it off with the personal crap and 3rd grade insults. Seriously.


I don’t take direction from people that have cooties.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 7:50 PM Post
Posts: 3602
Let's assume the staff isn't performing much different than last year and any deviance is white noise, or juiced balls, or the pitching coach or whatever. Unless we're the only ones playing with juiced balls or several teams cloned DJ (as though that were the issue), it doesn't explain why this staff is bad compared to the current seasons competition.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 8:36 PM Post
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The Brewers are currently 18th in ERA, 14th in FIP & 9th in xFIP.

None of those rankings are bad. The ERA is slightly below average, the FIP is slightly above average, the xFIP (which has the best predictive power of the three) is above average.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 16, 2019, 8:52 PM Post
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The variance in outcomes for this pitching staff is extremely wide due to the number of arms that we are cycling through. We are in first place right now and the staff hasn't particularly performed all that well. Pick up another arm or two and things will be fine. Stand pat with who we have and things might be fine too.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 17, 2019, 12:45 PM Post
Posts: 607
Looking through the potential rental SP arms out there and it looks like if we are going to see any improvement from the pitching staff this season it's going to have to be through internal improvement or the bullpen.

The only worthwhile rental SPs out there who will like be moved are Bumgarner, Roark, and maybe Alex Wood if he can come back healthy this month. Zack Wheeler too if the Mets decide to sell.

I don't think the Brewers have the bullets they're willing to part with to get any of the SPs under team control past this season.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 17, 2019, 7:46 PM Post
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long ball said:
Looking through the potential rental SP arms out there and it looks like if we are going to see any improvement from the pitching staff this season it's going to have to be through internal improvement or the bullpen.

The only worthwhile rental SPs out there who will like be moved are Bumgarner, Roark, and maybe Alex Wood if he can come back healthy this month. Zack Wheeler too if the Mets decide to sell.

I don't think the Brewers have the bullets they're willing to part with to get any of the SPs under team control past this season.


I don't see the improvement coming from SPs. It's going to have to come from the bullpen. The Crew can improve with some obtainable arms and hope Gio, Anderson, Nelson, etc.. get better.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 22, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
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According to BF.net's 40-man roster, both Nelson and Anderson have an option left. If so, I think it's time to send one down (preferably Nelson) and give Wilkerson a 4-5 game look in the rotation. He isn't going to set the world on fire, but he has nothing left to prove in AAA and can't be worse than what Nelson and Anderson have been doing lately. Will be nice to see what Wilkerson can do with an extended look and not having to pitch as soon as he gets to the ballpark after traveling all day.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 22, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Nelson has passed five years of service time and now cannot be optioned without his permission. Would be interesting to see if would accept a minor league assignment. I think 99.999% of players would refuse the reassignment, but I'm not so sure with Nelson. He probably know that he is headed for MiLB regardless is he is in the Brewers, Marlins or Orioles organization...I can't even see a really bad club wanting to continue to rehab him on a major league roster, not with as bad as he has pitched so far. He might think it's best to continue to work on the routine he has established with the Brewer's medical/coaching staff. I don't think it's out of the question that he actually might accept a reassignment to AAA.

Chase Anderson is also past five years of service time. My guess is that he would refuse to be sent down and would take his chances on getting an MLB job with a bad team in need of pitching.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 22, 2019, 12:03 PM Post
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Nelson to the bullpen

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/stat ... 8579005442


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 22, 2019, 1:11 PM Post
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Sure sounds like the Brewers tried to get Nelson to accept a trip down to AAA but he declined...

https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/ ... 7288822786

David Stearns said the Brewers discussed a number of options with Jimmy Nelson, including being optioned to Triple-A to continue to start. But Nelson has 5+ years of service, so he had a say. So, "we all agreed," Stearns said, on a move to the 'pen for now.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: June 22, 2019, 1:19 PM Post
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The way that the labor agreement is, players have no incentive to do anything "for the good of the team". He earned the right to refuse a minor league assignment, where the coaching and training staff is presumably worse and the facilities are surely worse.

Both sides should use the leverage presented to them by the terms of the labor deal.


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