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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 2:36 AM Post
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People really need to take a step back with the Nelson projections. We have no idea how he is going to progress.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 6:24 AM Post
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502 to Right said:
People really need to take a step back with the Nelson projections. We have no idea how he is going to progress.


Which is why most projections I've seen for him have been on the conservative side.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 7:24 AM Post
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clancyphile said:
Ennder said:
Jeffress's best month of the entire season was Sept/Oct so this opinion is just flat out silly, you are reading what you want into things and defending it with results instead of reality. There was no sign at all that he was wearing down.


Whatever is up with his shoulder... it's a concern.

There is depth... the Crew can obviously shift some folks around.

Woodruff can fill in as a relief pitcher.

Heck, maybe move Nelson to the pen this year. The Braves did that with Smoltz after an arm injury, and Smoltz later returned to the rotation.


Good points Clancy. I suppose we can move move people around but that weakens the starting staff. IMHO this team is one pitcher away from having THE best team in national league for SURE and it’s Kimbrell. We are so close to a World Series winning team, truly go all in, invest the $, sign him,win the series. Hoping Mark A. Reads BF.Net.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 9:43 AM Post
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Ennder said:
Jeffress's best month of the entire season was Sept/Oct so this opinion is just flat out silly, you are reading what you want into things and defending it with results instead of reality. There was no sign at all that he was wearing down.


No sign other than actually watching the game and seeing him labor in every single playoff appearance except one.

And the fact that this happened at over 75 innings pitched on the year, which is a rare amount for relievers and was already his career high by 8 innings and was his first year being a regular reliever who also often pitched in multiple frames in an appearance.

And the fact that it coincides with CC abandoning his philosophy of using the entire roster on the grounds that an average pitcher facing guys for the first time is often better than a superior but overworked pitcher facing them for the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4TH time in a short span. How did that work out with Puig again?

How about 5.8 walks per 9 innings in the playoffs, including walking a terrible backup catcher with the bases loaded?

Sure, he pitched well at the end of the regular season... and got worked into the ground in the process. That's the nature of overuse. You're fine until you're overworked. He wasn't overworked until the playoffs. His late season performance has literally nothing to do with the argument that he crossed the fatigue threshold at the very end. I didn't say he was fatigued at the end of the regular season, so why are you citing evidence that he wasn't? But that's when he peaked, and the signs of a letdown could not have been more obvious just a few games into the playoffs. CC completely ignored those signs. Very disappointing that they recognized the signs of Chase Anderson falling apart and benched him before he did, but couldn't do the same with JJ. And Anderson was a borderline ace in 2017.

And now his arm just isn't "right" despite (apparently) no evidence of structural damage.

How much more evidence of overuse do you want? It's a textbook case. Overwork is a nebulous thing that's hard to measure and therefore it's basically impossible to prove in the moment. You just have to go on common sense with regard to workload and performance. Maybe his velocity wasn't down in the playoffs, but that often doesn't happen until well after the overuse period.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 11:08 AM Post
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JJ has been a full time MLB reliever for the last four years. He ranks 18th in games (264), 10th in innings (266) & 9th in runs allowed based WAR (7.6) over that time. The year before that in 2014 he threw 73 IP over 62 G between MLB/AAA. In 2012 he threw 72 IP over 51 G between AA/AAA/MLB.

Yes, he pitched a lot of high stress innings in 2018, but ultimately he's been throwing a baseball around 95 MPH for the last 15 years or so, eventually that catches up with everybody.

All you can really do is hope it's just the kind of overcomeable spring training hiccup that numerous pitchers have every year & if it's something worse than that hope for a speedy recovery.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 4:29 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
JJ has been a full time MLB reliever for the last four years. He ranks 18th in games (264), 10th in innings (266) & 9th in runs allowed based WAR (7.6) over that time. The year before that in 2014 he threw 73 IP over 62 G between MLB/AAA. In 2012 he threw 72 IP over 51 G between AA/AAA/MLB.

Yes, he pitched a lot of high stress innings in 2018, but ultimately he's been throwing a baseball around 95 MPH for the last 15 years or so, eventually that catches up with everybody.



Could have been a long term thing, could have been short term. But his games and innings over the last 4 years just shows what I'm saying about him being overworked, because even in that role for years he didn't get as much use as last year. I mean, he was already on the high end for relievers before last year even started, and then he set a career high in innings and games before the playoffs even started. I don't remember him working over multiple innings on a regular basis like he did last year either.

Arm fatigue with no structural damage is pretty hard to prove or refute either way, but for someone to suggest it's silly and I just have an agenda and there's no evidence of it is kind of ridiculous. It would honestly be hard to imagine the evidence aligning more perfectly with the theory.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 10, 2019, 5:29 PM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
sveumrules said:
JJ has been a full time MLB reliever for the last four years. He ranks 18th in games (264), 10th in innings (266) & 9th in runs allowed based WAR (7.6) over that time. The year before that in 2014 he threw 73 IP over 62 G between MLB/AAA. In 2012 he threw 72 IP over 51 G between AA/AAA/MLB.

Yes, he pitched a lot of high stress innings in 2018, but ultimately he's been throwing a baseball around 95 MPH for the last 15 years or so, eventually that catches up with everybody.



Could have been a long term thing, could have been short term. But his games and innings over the last 4 years just shows what I'm saying about him being overworked, because even in that role for years he didn't get as much use as last year. I mean, he was already on the high end for relievers before last year even started, and then he set a career high in innings and games before the playoffs even started. I don't remember him working over multiple innings on a regular basis like he did last year either.

Arm fatigue with no structural damage is pretty hard to prove or refute either way, but for someone to suggest it's silly and I just have an agenda and there's no evidence of it is kind of ridiculous. It would honestly be hard to imagine the evidence aligning more perfectly with the theory.


How do we know for sure it’s “Arm Fatigue” and not structural damage of some sort. They said no need for tests “Right Now”. Why not do tests to know for sure what’s going on here with the shoulder. Don’t the brewers have multi million dollar state of the art science wing that I’m assuming has an MRI they can use. What am I missing here?


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 8:36 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:

How do we know for sure it’s “Arm Fatigue” and not structural damage of some sort. They said no need for tests “Right Now”. Why not do tests to know for sure what’s going on here with the shoulder. Don’t the brewers have multi million dollar state of the art science wing that I’m assuming has an MRI they can use. What am I missing here?


I think it's because his comments were something to the effect that there's no pain or discomfort but his "body just isn't right". We can't know for sure but given his workload last year, his performance as his workload approached extremely rare levels, and his start to the spring, it sure supports the theory that he wore out his arm last year.

I get why people would say we don't know for sure, but I don't get how anyone can deny that the evidence strongly supports it. Someone accused me of having an agenda, but I think it's pretty clear that the people who still refuse to even entertain the possibility despite all the circumstantial evidence are the ones with the agenda. I'm sure most of them are the same people who supported JJ pitching over and over again against LAD despite all the signs that he was falling apart, and the same people who often complained that they didn't use Hader enough and finally forced an exasperated CC to say "look, he can't pitch 90 games, okay?"


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 9:33 AM Post
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Everything I have read says the rotation is Chacin-Anderson-Davies and two open spots between Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. I am good with this as I think us fans tend to forget how good Davies can be when he is right. Looking at 2016-2017, Davies made 61 starts and pitched to a line of 3.93 ERA, 1.3 WHIP and a 4.07 FIP. Certainly not world beating but definitely worthy of a #4 or #5 spot in the rotation. Additionally, while we are all excited over the potential of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, Davies is only 26 and just 3 days older than Woodruff.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 9:38 AM Post
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I definitely think they should give Davies and Anderson a chance this year. If nothing else, just see if you can get their trade value up before you give a spot in the rotation to a young guy with a possible innings limit.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 9:47 AM Post
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Warning Track Power said:
Everything I have read says the rotation is Chacin-Anderson-Davies and two open spots between Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. I am good with this as I think us fans tend to forget how good Davies can be when he is right. Looking at 2016-2017, Davies made 61 starts and pitched to a line of 3.93 ERA, 1.3 WHIP and a 4.07 FIP. Certainly not world beating but definitely worthy of a #4 or #5 spot in the rotation. Additionally, while we are all excited over the potential of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, Davies is only 26 and just 3 days older than Woodruff.


Can never have enough starting pitching. So many people are writing off Anderson and Davies after down years last year. Anderson put up arguably ace-type numbers in 2017, though, and Davies was a strong #2-3 starter. If those two can approach that production again, the starting staff is in a very good place.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 9:49 AM Post
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I thinking very big Ifs for at least Anderson and Davies needs to stay healthy


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 12:51 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Warning Track Power said:
Everything I have read says the rotation is Chacin-Anderson-Davies and two open spots between Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. I am good with this as I think us fans tend to forget how good Davies can be when he is right. Looking at 2016-2017, Davies made 61 starts and pitched to a line of 3.93 ERA, 1.3 WHIP and a 4.07 FIP. Certainly not world beating but definitely worthy of a #4 or #5 spot in the rotation. Additionally, while we are all excited over the potential of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, Davies is only 26 and just 3 days older than Woodruff.


Can never have enough starting pitching. So many people are writing off Anderson and Davies after down years last year. Anderson put up arguably ace-type numbers in 2017, though, and Davies was a strong #2-3 starter. If those two can approach that production again, the starting staff is in a very good place.


I have zero concerns with their starting pitching. And IF Jeffress comes back and is throwing 95-97 again then I’ll have zero concern over the bullpen. I’ll stop beating the Kimbrell drum and give the brewers the benefit of doubt in regards to Jeffress. But if Jeffress isn’t right.....


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 12:58 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Warning Track Power said:
Everything I have read says the rotation is Chacin-Anderson-Davies and two open spots between Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. I am good with this as I think us fans tend to forget how good Davies can be when he is right. Looking at 2016-2017, Davies made 61 starts and pitched to a line of 3.93 ERA, 1.3 WHIP and a 4.07 FIP. Certainly not world beating but definitely worthy of a #4 or #5 spot in the rotation. Additionally, while we are all excited over the potential of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, Davies is only 26 and just 3 days older than Woodruff.


Can never have enough starting pitching. So many people are writing off Anderson and Davies after down years last year. Anderson put up arguably ace-type numbers in 2017, though, and Davies was a strong #2-3 starter. If those two can approach that production again, the starting staff is in a very good place.


Even last year Anderson was pretty darn solid. Either people are way too spoiled about having some solid younger guys or they are way to fixated on a single stat (HRs). Bottom line Chase Anderson limits baserunners and many of the HRs are fairly harmless. What exactly is the difference between Davies letting guys round the bases with hits ( >9.0 H9 every year of his career) and Anderson giving up dingers? Actually I would argue Anderson giving up homers is somewhat beneficial considering giving up a run on one batter is way better than wasting pitches/energy on 2-3 batters. If Chase Anderson isn't one of our Top 5 pitchers when it is all said and done this year I would be really surprised and assume we acquired someone major at the deadline. Pretty solid backend guy at worst in my opinion. I'd bet on someone disappointing this year and being worse than Anderson.

Not sure on Davies though...feels like he is in the same boat, backend guy. Not sure when he was ever like a #2 or #3 starter.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 1:00 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Warning Track Power said:
Everything I have read says the rotation is Chacin-Anderson-Davies and two open spots between Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. I am good with this as I think us fans tend to forget how good Davies can be when he is right. Looking at 2016-2017, Davies made 61 starts and pitched to a line of 3.93 ERA, 1.3 WHIP and a 4.07 FIP. Certainly not world beating but definitely worthy of a #4 or #5 spot in the rotation. Additionally, while we are all excited over the potential of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, Davies is only 26 and just 3 days older than Woodruff.


Can never have enough starting pitching. So many people are writing off Anderson and Davies after down years last year. Anderson put up arguably ace-type numbers in 2017, though, and Davies was a strong #2-3 starter. If those two can approach that production again, the starting staff is in a very good place.


Even last year Anderson was pretty darn solid. Either people are way too spoiled about having some solid younger guys or they are way to fixated on a single stat (HRs). Bottom line Chase Anderson limits baserunners and many of the HRs are fairly harmless. What exactly is the difference between Davies letting guys round the bases with hits ( >9.0 H9 every year of his career) and Anderson giving up dingers? Actually I would argue Anderson giving up homers is somewhat beneficial considering giving up a run on one batter is way better than wasting pitches/energy on 2-3 batters. If Chase Anderson isn't one of our Top 5 pitchers when it is all said and done this year I would be really surprised and assume we acquired someone major at the deadline. Pretty solid backend guy at worst in my opinion. I'd bet on someone disappointing this year and being worse than Anderson.

Not sure on Davies though...feels like he is in the same boat, backend guy. Not sure when he was ever like a #2 or #3 starter.


I know pitcher wins are not the be-all/end-all, but 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 2017 is more than solid. I'd take that from my #2-3 starter any year.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 1:22 PM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
Brew crew 92 said:

How do we know for sure it’s “Arm Fatigue” and not structural damage of some sort. They said no need for tests “Right Now”. Why not do tests to know for sure what’s going on here with the shoulder. Don’t the brewers have multi million dollar state of the art science wing that I’m assuming has an MRI they can use. What am I missing here?


I think it's because his comments were something to the effect that there's no pain or discomfort but his "body just isn't right". We can't know for sure but given his workload last year, his performance as his workload approached extremely rare levels, and his start to the spring, it sure supports the theory that he wore out his arm last year.

I get why people would say we don't know for sure, but I don't get how anyone can deny that the evidence strongly supports it. Someone accused me of having an agenda, but I think it's pretty clear that the people who still refuse to even entertain the possibility despite all the circumstantial evidence are the ones with the agenda. I'm sure most of them are the same people who supported JJ pitching over and over again against LAD despite all the signs that he was falling apart, and the same people who often complained that they didn't use Hader enough and finally forced an exasperated CC to say "look, he can't pitch 90 games, okay?"


My biggest concern with the new wave of thinking about pitching is how relievers will hold up with the extra workload as starting pitchers are taken out after two times through the order. Games are still nine innings, so if starters pitch less there will necessarily be a lot more relievers with 70+ outings, many of them multi-inning outings. This could very likely shorten the useful lifespan of your relievers. Since there is always a shortage of consistent relievers, if it becomes evident that overuse is shortening the careers of relievers, I think that negative could outweigh the benefit of pulling starters out early. But, only time will tell.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 1:25 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I know pitcher wins are not the be-all/end-all, but 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 2017 is more than solid. I'd take that from my #2-3 starter any year.


It isn't the end of an argument or a start...it is completely irrelevant. That record was 100% a reflection of our offense (and our bullpen to a lesser extent) when he pitched. Well, and the fact he started 33 games, which is very unlikely. He was given 6+ runs of support 11 times in 2017. Predictably we won all of them.

In what I would call more normal circumstances (3-5 runs of support) he was 6-5. Average...which pretty much sums up Davies. Pretty much what you are saying is, "I would like my offense to score 6+ runs every game for my #3 starter." Because in about half of Davies starts in 2017 he was pretty meaningless no matter how he pitched. At his best Davies is a solid #3...but that's about as much as he has ever shown.

My prime example is Braden Looper who went an impressive 14-7 on a terrible team (2009) despite a 5.22 ERA, 10.4 H9, and 39 homers given up.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 1:58 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I know pitcher wins are not the be-all/end-all, but 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 2017 is more than solid. I'd take that from my #2-3 starter any year.


It isn't the end of an argument or a start...it is completely irrelevant. That record was 100% a reflection of our offense (and our bullpen to a lesser extent) when he pitched. Well, and the fact he started 33 games, which is very unlikely. He was given 6+ runs of support 11 times in 2017. Predictably we won all of them.

In what I would call more normal circumstances (3-5 runs of support) he was 6-5. Average...which pretty much sums up Davies. Pretty much what you are saying is, "I would like my offense to score 6+ runs every game for my #3 starter." Because in about half of Davies starts in 2017 he was pretty meaningless no matter how he pitched. At his best Davies is a solid #3...but that's about as much as he has ever shown.

My prime example is Braden Looper who went an impressive 14-7 on a terrible team (2009) despite a 5.22 ERA, 10.4 H9, and 39 homers given up.


Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 2:05 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.


Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: March 11, 2019, 2:15 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.


Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.


I guess I maybe have a soft spot for guys who are never going to light up the radar gun, but who know how to pitch. If we can get the 2017 versions of Davies and Anderson, this rotation is going to be quite strong.


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