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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 10, 2019, 11:21 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Imagine if we overreacted and sent Chacin to the pen after his rough April last year. You just can't make these decisions based on a couple of outings.


Well said. I think each of the young guys has shown some really good things and some really bad things.

Woodruff has a .440 BABIP against. No way that stays put.
Burnes spin rate is elite and he is getting a lot of swings and misses. The problem has been missed location. When he has missed he's been hammered. The thing to remember about his hard hit rate is that it's only slightly worse than Jacob DeGrom's which speaks to small samples as much as anything.
Peralta is kind of who he's been - great for one start or most of a start and then bad for a start or an inning.

No reason to panic just yet.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 10, 2019, 12:11 PM Post
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Early, I wouldn't move anyone around just yet. However, I'd be lying if I said 2012 isn't in the back of my head. A very talented team that came off a good run, that underestimated some really important departures. That team was 30-20, and I believe something like 36-24, until there was a regression to the mean and the mediocre bullpen caught up to it. They wound up around .500. There are too many good baseball players on this team for it to be really awful, but I'm beginning to think that the pen may have a talent problem.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 10, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
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They won't, and shouldn't, make a move soon. However, once you start rolling into May/Mid-May if someone is still bombing it often you just can't afford that . I mean by mid May they will have plenty of starts under their belt. I would replace someone at the start of May if they are really just getting murdered out there.

You can't be sitting there going three innings and giving up 4/6 runs. You are destroying the bullpen, giving up a ton of runs, and then the bullpen will give even more runs. You are single-handedly losing the game...essentially giving the team no chance to win. Barring one heck of an offensive performance and amazing bullpen work.

I am not saying we need Keuchel or need to replace these guys, merely saying if things don't get WAY better from the trio of young guys they can't afford to give them 150+ innings on this team. We will sink our year letting guys throw 150+ innings of 5 ERA or worse ball.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 10, 2019, 1:19 PM Post
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homer said:
Brew4U said:
Imagine if we overreacted and sent Chacin to the pen after his rough April last year. You just can't make these decisions based on a couple of outings.


Well said. I think each of the young guys has shown some really good things and some really bad things.

Woodruff has a .440 BABIP against. No way that stays put.
Burnes spin rate is elite and he is getting a lot of swings and misses. The problem has been missed location. When he has missed he's been hammered. The thing to remember about his hard hit rate is that it's only slightly worse than Jacob DeGrom's which speaks to small samples as much as anything.
Peralta is kind of who he's been - great for one start or most of a start and then bad for a start or an inning.

No reason to panic just yet.


Agreed. I've actually been encouraged by what Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta have shown early in the year. Obviously, things haven't gone completely as planned for each of them but when they're throwing well there's some high end potential. At worst, if they just can't get things worked out, you know what kind of asset they are in the bullpen.

The most frustrating thing for me (at least last night) was the walks from the back end of the bullpen. I know you can't just run 'em over the middle of the plate against MLB hitting but I'd rather give up HRs than walks to average players.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 10, 2019, 1:42 PM Post
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Through the first 12 games of 2018 our starters threw 60.1 innings with a 4.92 ERA/5.12 FIP/4.74 xFIP.

Through the first 12 games of 2019 our starters have thrown 61.0 innings with a 5.61 ERA/5.32 FIP/4.18 x FIP.

Conclusion: 12 games is too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions except that even if the trio of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta do happen to last all season in the rotation their performance will more likely be of the ups & downs variety than of the more consistent variety (but we probably already knew that).


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 10, 2019, 2:08 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
I'm guessing the extreme Peralta supporter didn't chime in with his 'told ya so' like he did after the last start? haha. Peralta really has to add another pitch, you just can't survive with only a fastball and now he's seemingly barely using the curve. I know his game 2 was amazing but in the STL and this one he couldn't get swing and misses at all, generally that's a bad sign. Seemed like Goldy fouled off a dozen pitches from him, and all were hit really hard.


I just didn't get a chance until now. Goldy hitting some balls hard off him really isn't a good argument, not too many pitchers he hasn't hit hard before.

If you noticed, Peralta's curve was around the plate last night. I blame the bench for not having him throw it more often. (I'm assuming the bench calls the game for the young guys for the most part)

I didn't see any of the game after the 2nd inning, so I'm not sure why/how Peralta was able to get some Ks later. I just think he was gassed in the 1st inning after giving up some soft hits at first, and then it just imploded from there. No excuse, I fully expect him to have these ups and downs for a while.

Edit: The other thing I noticed, and Bill S was mentioning this, Peralta has had success with the high FB. They had him throwing it low a lot for some reason. And he wasn't missing, you can see Grandal's glove setting up at the bottom of the zone.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
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FV, you're not the person I was thinking of and I was just kidding anyway. I just found it funny how the other said nothing after game 1, said something after game 2, and then nothing after game 3. It's just not good to get into the told ya so's game by game. I remember the same thing around Jabari Parker, whenever he'd have a good game folks would get all cocky to the 'Jabari haters'. It's just a petty argumentative thing that doesn't need to happen.

I agree with your point on the pitch selection, it's probably not his fault as someone else is calling it. But they just have to use it more than they have and to throw it for a strike to keep them honest. If you let MLB hitters sit on FBs they're gonna figure it out. And the Goldy was just an example as he had a ton of foul balls that game. I'd be curious that stat but it seemed like that whole game (all players) he couldn't get a swing/miss, Goldy was just the most extreme example since it was so many. I wanna say I saw something regarding his swing/miss % being off from last year or maybe it was game to game on Twitter, I doubt it was the TV broadcast. Could be wrong though as it's been a few days now.

Still I'm not trying to hate on him or give up. You can see the potential in him and all these guys. The increased velocity is a great addition and of course he's the youngest. Now, like you said, I think they have to coach him the right way to be as effective as he can be. Use more curves. Think of Sheets, he only had 2 pitches but he threw the curve a lot. Granted he had the best curve in the league, but the main point is that if the hitters are sitting on the FB a ton of the time a basic Curve thrown for a strike is a free strike as they won't even swing. Actually Knebel is a great example of this too.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
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This might have been discussed earlier but does anyone know Jimmy Nelson's line from his outing yesterday? Mainly just curious how many pitches/innings he threw.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 9:10 AM Post
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Obviously a start where the end result is a 6 ERA cannot be considered a great success, but Woodruff did a pretty decent job last night. A bit of encouraging news there. And some nice work by the pen.

Just have to hope that the offense doesn't fall off a cliff once the pitching stabilizes and gets itself going a bit.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
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This young staff will have its growing pains no doubt lets get through April and see where they are at.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
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Still I'm not trying to hate on him or give up. You can see the potential in him and all these guys. The increased velocity is a great addition and of course he's the youngest. Now, like you said, I think they have to coach him the right way to be as effective as he can be. Use more curves.

Limited repertoire is an obvious issue for all of them. Locating pitches is another. We see with Peralta when he is locating his pitches, even with a limited repertoire, he can be unhitable. Last night when Woodruff melted down, I didn't see a single pitch that wasn't either more than a foot from the plate or right down the middle. While the Angels have a pretty poor offense, it isn't made up of a bunch of Arcia's so they aren't going to chase that way outside ball, but they will jump on meatball down the middle of the plate. When he finally settled down (Pujols and Goodwin) he was hitting the corners and keeping those pitches out of the strike zone close enough that the batter had to protect the plate. I recall Burnes last start was similar, he was having a hard time locating and several of the hard hits were just meatballs over the plate. These guys need to be able to spend 10-15 minutes sitting between innings and retain their location. When your a reliever there's less up and down. Starting requires you to retain your mechanics after sitting multiple times and if the dysfunctional brewers offense has a good inning you are sitting for extended periods. The top of the 3rd was a long inning for the Brewers even though they only scored 1 (Arcia struck out with the bases loaded). It's not unexpected that the bottom of the 3rd started so poorly as Woodruff had sat for awhile. These young guys have to work on keeping warm and loose during those long stretches.

There's nothing wrong with any of these young pitchers that a bit of learning/maturity will help address. These aren't crappy arms, they all have positive pitches and attributes that they need to refine. The offense is offensive and we're now seeing for the second year in a row how difficult it is for this offense to succeed when 3 batters in a row are automatic outs. Last year it was 6-8 for an extended period. This year it's been 3-5/4-6 for a good chunk of the season. Maybe our manager needs to break up the cold players instead of billioning-down on a losing formula.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 9:50 AM Post
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Good last two posts from brewman and xi. You see the stuff is there for these guys, just gonna take some time and learning/maturity for them to put it all together. I pretty much agree, just let them settle in and get comfortable and see where they're at after a few more starts. Continue to help tweak and coach as much as you can. I'm happy they're going this route instead of watching 4 out of 5 guys be soft tosser types like we've seen in the past


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 11, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
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xisxisxis said:
Still I'm not trying to hate on him or give up. You can see the potential in him and all these guys. The increased velocity is a great addition and of course he's the youngest. Now, like you said, I think they have to coach him the right way to be as effective as he can be. Use more curves.

Limited repertoire is an obvious issue for all of them. Locating pitches is another. We see with Peralta when he is locating his pitches, even with a limited repertoire, he can be unhitable. Last night when Woodruff melted down, I didn't see a single pitch that wasn't either more than a foot from the plate or right down the middle. While the Angels have a pretty poor offense, it isn't made up of a bunch of Arcia's so they aren't going to chase that way outside ball, but they will jump on meatball down the middle of the plate. When he finally settled down (Pujols and Goodwin) he was hitting the corners and keeping those pitches out of the strike zone close enough that the batter had to protect the plate. I recall Burnes last start was similar, he was having a hard time locating and several of the hard hits were just meatballs over the plate. These guys need to be able to spend 10-15 minutes sitting between innings and retain their location. When your a reliever there's less up and down. Starting requires you to retain your mechanics after sitting multiple times and if the dysfunctional brewers offense has a good inning you are sitting for extended periods. The top of the 3rd was a long inning for the Brewers even though they only scored 1 (Arcia struck out with the bases loaded). It's not unexpected that the bottom of the 3rd started so poorly as Woodruff had sat for awhile. These young guys have to work on keeping warm and loose during those long stretches.

There's nothing wrong with any of these young pitchers that a bit of learning/maturity will help address. These aren't crappy arms, they all have positive pitches and attributes that they need to refine. The offense is offensive and we're now seeing for the second year in a row how difficult it is for this offense to succeed when 3 batters in a row are automatic outs. Last year it was 6-8 for an extended period. This year it's been 3-5/4-6 for a good chunk of the season. Maybe our manager needs to break up the cold players instead of billioning-down on a losing formula.


Shaw and Aguilar are not going to be automatic outs for the whole season. Their track record is too much in the other direction for that.

It's only 12 games. Let's at least get through the next 13 before we panic.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 12, 2019, 9:15 AM Post
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Outside of Hader and Guerra, who else besides me gets a horrible, sick feeling at the pit of their stomach when any of the other 6 pen arms are brought in?

Ok, it’s not quite as horrible when Anderson or Claudio in.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 12, 2019, 9:21 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Outside of Hader and Guerra, who else besides me gets a horrible, sick feeling at the pit of their stomach when any of the other 6 pen arms are brought in?

Ok, it’s not quite as horrible when Anderson or Claudio in.


If you are hanging this much on every pitch over a 162-game schedule, that's not healthy. It's baseball. Even the best teams are likely going to lose more than 60 times. Yeah, it sucks when one of our lesser pen arms doesn't perform, but I can't say it makes me feel any different than normal. Playoff baseball is a whole different thing, but I'm not going to stress about about bullpen issues in April two weeks into the season.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 12, 2019, 9:59 AM Post
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I do agree that this early in the season, you can't read into much. On that note, I'd say however that out -6 run differential is a better indicator of the kind of baseball that we've played over our 8-5 record. We're definitely a 'lucky' 8-5, and thus far the Cardinals have certainly been the best team in the division.

Now can we improve on that, of course. Burnes isn't going to have a 9+ ERA all year, Woodruff and Peralta should both be better, there's a lot of youth and upside the rotation.

Still, I'd be lying if I said I have no concerns. Youth and upside is a good thing to have, but in the short-term, it could be our downfall. We're committed apparently to having all our young starters in the rotation this year, and in the long run, that's probably a good thing. In the short-term, we're going to have to suffer through their growing pains as starters while simultaneously not having those young power arms in the bullpen which made such a difference late last season.

What we're doing right now is essentially the opposite of the bullpenning approach of late last year, which surprises me a bit because it was so successful for us.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 13, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
FV, you're not the person I was thinking of and I was just kidding anyway. I just found it funny how the other said nothing after game 1, said something after game 2, and then nothing after game 3. It's just not good to get into the told ya so's game by game.


Let me get this straight...

I post essentially what amounts to "small sample alert" in response to people saying Peralta needs to go back to AAA after 1 start, and I'm the one playing the "told you so" game. I simply cited the folly of making sweeping judgements from one game and directed it at no one specifically. I didn't say anything demonstrative like "Peralta is going to win Cy Young". Then start #3 happens and YOU'RE the one who decides to stir the pot referencing one person specifically (ME). Your post reeks of someone trying to start something. But I'm the problem, got it.

I saw your first post directed at me and did the right thing which was to ignore it. You felt the need to double down.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 14, 2019, 6:19 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Good last two posts from brewman and xi. You see the stuff is there for these guys, just gonna take some time and learning/maturity for them to put it all together. I pretty much agree, just let them settle in and get comfortable and see where they're at after a few more starts. Continue to help tweak and coach as much as you can. I'm happy they're going this route instead of watching 4 out of 5 guys be soft tosser types like we've seen in the past


With what they've invested elsewhere on this roster, they don't really have the luxury of waiting much beyond April for the 3 unproven guys to start showing some consistency. Yeah it might not be ideal for their development but this team is in it to win it. Anderson is waiting in the wings and if I had to bet, I'd bet he's in the rotation by Mother's Day. We'll see on Nelson, and the possibility of Kuechel.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 14, 2019, 8:08 AM Post
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As of this morning, Baltimore has a better record than Boston. That should tell us everything about the conclusions that we should be drawing at this point in the season.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 14, 2019, 8:38 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
As of this morning, Baltimore has a better record than Boston. That should tell us everything about the conclusions that we should be drawing at this point in the season.

Except for the Cubs. They are who we thought they were


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