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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 12:33 PM Post
Posts: 3909
Location: Madison, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
tmwiese55 said:
FV, you're not the person I was thinking of and I was just kidding anyway. I just found it funny how the other said nothing after game 1, said something after game 2, and then nothing after game 3. It's just not good to get into the told ya so's game by game.


Let me get this straight...

I post essentially what amounts to "small sample alert" in response to people saying Peralta needs to go back to AAA after 1 start, and I'm the one playing the "told you so" game. I simply cited the folly of making sweeping judgements from one game and directed it at no one specifically. I didn't say anything demonstrative like "Peralta is going to win Cy Young". Then start #3 happens and YOU'RE the one who decides to stir the pot referencing one person specifically (ME). Your post reeks of someone trying to start something. But I'm the problem, got it.

I saw your first post directed at me and did the right thing which was to ignore it. You felt the need to double down.


Ignore it? This response is the opposite of ignoring, haha. You argued aggressively, combatively, condescendingly all off season with everyone on Peralta and did a 'told ya so' post after game 2. So I don't know how you don't consider that stirring the pot looking for an argument. Moreover, there is literally no Peralta 'haters' here for you to even argue with. Everyone is rooting for the guy but you took anyone willing to trade him for a big name as a hater. Or anyone suggesting that a 3rd pitch would be good as a hater.

That said, I'll acknowledge I don't know what everyone said here after game 1. I was at Game 1 so obviously not online and then it was the weekend after that game so wasn't on here. So yes I don't know if a bunch of people gave you grief, but I know I wasn't one. But overall one should take any stupid comments in the IGTs with a grain of salt as folks overreact so crazy in IGT. And I now see how you view it as a shot at you, but that wasn't meant to be the case as my whole point was exactly that these gotcha type things are pointless game to game and don't make for good discussion as every just argues. These guys are all gonna get a big chunk of games and baseball is a long season, folks need to chill. One can probably view that as a general theme of mine a lot on here.

Freddy goes again tonight and it's against the STL team that were all over him game 1. Here's hoping for a strong bounceback and hopefully the coaches have a better gameplan for him to use. We're all on his side.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 12:38 PM Post
Posts: 3909
Location: Madison, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Good last two posts from brewman and xi. You see the stuff is there for these guys, just gonna take some time and learning/maturity for them to put it all together. I pretty much agree, just let them settle in and get comfortable and see where they're at after a few more starts. Continue to help tweak and coach as much as you can. I'm happy they're going this route instead of watching 4 out of 5 guys be soft tosser types like we've seen in the past


With what they've invested elsewhere on this roster, they don't really have the luxury of waiting much beyond April for the 3 unproven guys to start showing some consistency. Yeah it might not be ideal for their development but this team is in it to win it. Anderson is waiting in the wings and if I had to bet, I'd bet he's in the rotation by Mother's Day. We'll see on Nelson, and the possibility of Kuechel.


Yup, that's the odd predicament they're in. I think everyone sees enough in these guys that they'd want to generally give them the Jimmy Nelson type rope of a few years ago. however, the rest of the roster is in clear Win Now mode so it might not be possible. Combine that with the BP injuries and how these guys did well in the pen last year, so they could help that issue in different roles.

Very interesting and tough balance for management to juggle right now. I think they have a plan though, like you said they know they have Anderson and Nelson waiting in the wings along with the young guys likely needing some breaks to reduce innings. This is going to be interesting to watch as the year goes on, after what happened last year i think we all just have to trust management on this at this point and allow them a leash without too much freaking out. They were obviously well ahead of conventional and general fan thinking with pitching last year, they've earned some trust.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 1:08 PM Post
Posts: 10336
We didn't spend some $30mil or so on Moustakas/Grandal this year to watch the season burn up because of young starters and giving them a year to figure it out. If they aren't performing they will get replaced. They may get some slack on the rope...but it will tighten up eventually.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 1:45 PM Post
Posts: 4195
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
We didn't spend some $30mil or so on Moustakas/Grandal this year to watch the season burn up because of young starters and giving them a year to figure it out. If they aren't performing they will get replaced. They may get some slack on the rope...but it will tighten up eventually.


This is about where I'm at with Burnes/Peralta. They've had 3 starts. They'll probably get at least a handful more starts before any sort of change is considered. All that said, is Chase Anderson really a better option than either guy? Or do we look at Zack Brown or Adrian Houser? That's what we are looking at if we make a change, aside from signing Keuchel which I simply don't think will happen.

Regarding Peralta, I don't understand why he doesn't throw his offspeed stuff more. You can't get guys out in this league with fastball only, not as a starter. I don't care how much extension or spin rate or whatever other trendy metric, these are MLB hitters...and Peralta is likely facing multiple all-star caliber hitters every start. These hitters don't become all-stars because a guy can dominate them with fastball only. I think hitters would have a much tougher time catching up to his high fastball if he threw the breaking pitch more, and low fastballs if it could potentially be a changeup that drops out of the zone.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 2:01 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
MrTPlush said:
We didn't spend some $30mil or so on Moustakas/Grandal this year to watch the season burn up because of young starters and giving them a year to figure it out. If they aren't performing they will get replaced. They may get some slack on the rope...but it will tighten up eventually.


This is about where I'm at with Burnes/Peralta. They've had 3 starts. They'll probably get at least a handful more starts before any sort of change is considered. All that said, is Chase Anderson really a better option than either guy? Or do we look at Zack Brown or Adrian Houser? That's what we are looking at if we make a change, aside from signing Keuchel which I simply don't think will happen.

Regarding Peralta, I don't understand why he doesn't throw his offspeed stuff more. You can't get guys out in this league with fastball only, not as a starter. I don't care how much extension or spin rate or whatever other trendy metric, these are MLB hitters...and Peralta is likely facing multiple all-star caliber hitters every start. These hitters don't become all-stars because a guy can dominate them with fastball only. I think hitters would have a much tougher time catching up to his high fastball if he threw the breaking pitch more, and low fastballs if it could potentially be a changeup that drops out of the zone.


I think Jimmy Nelson will likely be shuttled to AAA to build up his innings this week. I imagine he'll make 3-4 starts there, then they'll decide where to go with him. That timeline is looking like mid-May. I imagine that if he checks out stuff and health-wise, he'd be the first one up to take someone's spot after a handful more starts get the team through the next month or so.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 3:12 PM Post
Posts: 517
Doubling down on the 3 youngsters. Would be nice for all three to have signature games vs the dirty birds this week. Like Counsell said, “there’s too much stuff there” for results to be there. Things always end up evening out.

I’ve been optimistic about Nelson....but I’m not holding my breath that he pitches for us at all this year. Either for health reasons, or simply he can’t get batters out in aaa.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 3:16 PM Post
Posts: 4229
It is frustrating to see their struggles.

Burnes - yeah, I expected it, albeit not to the tune of giving up three gopher balls per start. Peralta - I figured hitters would catch up to the fastball, especially multiple time through the order.

Woodruff, I think, was mismanaged a bit. The Crew could have just had him up in 2017, and DFA Garza after 2016. That would have had him a major contributor in 2018 and a mainstay by 2019. Now he, too, is adjusting.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 11:01 PM Post
Posts: 112
clancyphile said:
It is frustrating to see their struggles.

Burnes - yeah, I expected it, albeit not to the tune of giving up three gopher balls per start. Peralta - I figured hitters would catch up to the fastball, especially multiple time through the order.

Woodruff, I think, was mismanaged a bit. The Crew could have just had him up in 2017, and DFA Garza after 2016. That would have had him a major contributor in 2018 and a mainstay by 2019. Now he, too, is adjusting.


Peralta with another horrible outing tonight. The trio of young starters have been awful, and getting progressively worse. The pitching staff is giving up HRs at an alarming rate. Another 3 given up tonight. The pen has been horrific with the exception of Hader. JJ is not himself coming back from injury. He got tore-up in AAA ball and his velocity was in the 80's in his second inning of work. Right now the offense is overcoming the pitchers giving up HR after HR after HR. They can't make a playoff run with pitching as bad as it is. Stearns and CC have to make something happen quick.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 15, 2019, 11:38 PM Post
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We have played less than 11% of our season games to this point. Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes have pitched 47 innings combined.

It's not quite an apples to apples comparison with starting pitchers vs. a position player, but last year Domingo Santana started 42 of the first 54 games (33% of the season) batting 258/331/371 over 181 PAs before he saw his playing time cut & was eventually demoted.

We are currently in first place despite the predictable early struggles of three young pitchers attempting their first full seasons as MLB starters, I'll take it. If at some point the org thinks they have better starting options & want to move one or more of Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes to the pen or AAA, I'll trust their judgement since they're privy to way more information than I am.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 6:34 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
clancyphile said:
It is frustrating to see their struggles.

Burnes - yeah, I expected it, albeit not to the tune of giving up three gopher balls per start. Peralta - I figured hitters would catch up to the fastball, especially multiple time through the order.

Woodruff, I think, was mismanaged a bit. The Crew could have just had him up in 2017, and DFA Garza after 2016. That would have had him a major contributor in 2018 and a mainstay by 2019. Now he, too, is adjusting.


Peralta with another horrible outing tonight. The trio of young starters have been awful, and getting progressively worse. The pitching staff is giving up HRs at an alarming rate. Another 3 given up tonight. The pen has been horrific with the exception of Hader. JJ is not himself coming back from injury. He got tore-up in AAA ball and his velocity was in the 80's in his second inning of work. Right now the offense is overcoming the pitchers giving up HR after HR after HR. They can't make a playoff run with pitching as bad as it is. Stearns and CC have to make something happen quick.


Eleven and six


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 6:46 AM Post
Posts: 832
It’ll be interesting to see if the crew brings anyone up besides jeffress. I vote drop hart and add Jackson, bring him up, send Barnes and Petricka down.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 7:22 AM Post
Posts: 4024
I agree that Nelson's hopeful return before Memorial Day will prompt the first move in the rotation - and frankly I'd expect it to be sending Peralta down to AAA to continue starting and work on refining his secondary pitches to where he's comfortable using them more often early in counts. To preserve the bullpen longterm, he's got to at least consistently get past the 5th in his starts. When Peralta is on he can dominate a lineup, but when he's not at his best he really handcuffs the longterm stability of the bullpen. I can see Anderson replacing Burnes in the rotation and swapping their roles for a while, too - partly to manage Burnes' innings, but it also may be necessary if he keeps giving up 3 gopher balls a game. Tough to remember that Burnes stopped starting games in late May last season as he transitioned to more of a bullpen role - it's obvious his 3rd and 4th pitches need a lot of work and need to be used more, particularly against lefties. Everything he throws right now is hard with no offspeed, that has to change in a starting role. I also think Houser will play a role in the 2019 rotation or pen, and while I like Brown I think he should stay in AAA this year - as they may have a difficult time shifting guys around on this year's 40 man to make room for him.

As for Woodruff, I think unless he gets injured the Brewers should roll with him all year in the rotation. To me he's the most polished of the three and deserves to be left alone to develop as a MLB starter based on how much he's been yanked around the last two years between AAA, the rotation, and the bullpen.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 7:29 AM Post
Posts: 1493
Location: Madison, WI
Barnes did a pretty nice job in last night's game. Did get bailed out a little bit on a great play by Arcia to end the inning, but had two strikeouts before that and a walk to Goldschmidt in an at-bat where Barnes was being careful when considering the hitter.

Time to do away with the assumptions that "I want this guy to do good" and "this guy is bad." Zach Davies was a guy that seemingly everyone wanted dumped and so far he is the only good starting pitcher that the Brewers have had in terms of what matters the most, actual run prevention (Davies ERA = 1.53, next best starter's ERA = 6.00). Barnes 4.05 ERA trails only Hader and Guerra among the relievers. Barnes 3.44 FIP trails only Hader and Albers. Barnes 2.61 xFIP trails only Hader. There is no question that he's been one of the team's best relievers so far and, as long as he keeps pitching at this level, there is no reason he should be in the discussion to be sent down.

Brewer bullpen rankings (ERA rank 1st, FIP rank 2nd, xFIP rank 3rd).

Hader (1-1-1)
Guerra (2-6-7)
Barnes (3-3-2)
Albers (4-2-3)
Anderson (5-7-5)
Claudio (6-5-8)
Wilson (7-4-4)
Petricka (8-9-9)
Williams (9-8-6)

Barnes and Albers (another Brewer Fan "favorite") has probably been the teams second and third best relievers so far.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 7:30 AM Post
Posts: 776
Some players with a worse ERA than Peralta right now: Carrasco, Porcello, Sale, Happ, Eovaldi, Buehler, Nola, Quintana.

ERA over 10-20 inning samples is an OK way to measure results, it's a poor way to measure performance, a horrible way to measure ability and a truly awful way to predict the future. Pitchers have runs like these all the time, it's just not as noticable when it happens in the middle of the season. Until DRA is ready and available, SIERA is the best predictive stat available. SIERA, and the basic K%-BB%, has the Brewers rotation 12th. BABIP is above average, and HR/FB rate is almost 10% above the league average, 6% above the highest rate any team had last year (Reds, playing in a launching pad). Those numbers won't last. They just won't. If it was an inability to strike batters out, or giving up a ton of walks, I'd be more concerned.

Point is, there is absolutely no need to panic. The rotation has seen poor results so far, but the underlying metrics and predictive stats suggests it has been and will be (on current performance) a roughly league average rotation. Now, as a team with the ambition to go to the World Series, we want more than an average rotation, so considering how to improve on that is a more legitimate issue. It's not, however, one that requires hyperbole, hyperventilation or panic moves. Despite pitching struggles so far, the team is 11-6. Run prevention will get better even on current performance levels with the current staff. There are internal reinforcements to be considered too, and I would think the Brewers have reason to expect better performances from the incumbents too. And with regards to signings/trades, the criteria should still be based more on preseason needs than current performance. If a signing didn't make sense before the season, it still shouldn't. While if they wanted Keuchel/Kimbrel/(trade target x) beforehand, but it was a matter of cost, then they should go for it if that drops to an acceptable level. Or the budget increases to meet it while maintaining some spending room for the deadline.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 8:09 AM Post
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So who goes down today for Jeffress?

I thought it'd be Barnes for sure, but he was trusted in the 8th inning yesterday over Petricka, and I think this may actually be one of the last days we could option Petricka back down without his permission (he's like maybe 5 days away from 5 years of service time).

On the other hand, after yesterday maybe they value Petricka's fresh arm. On the other other hand, with a 4-run lead in the 9th and no off day in sight, Counsell brought in Hader rather than trying to just let Barnes finish it out (which seemed like the right way to go if you're going to option Barnes for a fresh arm the next day).

I'll guess it's Petricka that goes down for Jeffress.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 8:12 AM Post
Posts: 832
JosephC said:
Barnes did a pretty nice job in last night's game. Did get bailed out a little bit on a great play by Arcia to end the inning, but had two strikeouts before that and a walk to Goldschmidt in an at-bat where Barnes was being careful when considering the hitter.

Time to do away with the assumptions that "I want this guy to do good" and "this guy is bad." Zach Davies was a guy that seemingly everyone wanted dumped and so far he is the only good starting pitcher that the Brewers have had in terms of what matters the most, actual run prevention (Davies ERA = 1.53, next best starter's ERA = 6.00). Barnes 4.05 ERA trails only Hader and Guerra among the relievers. Barnes 3.44 FIP trails only Hader and Albers. Barnes 2.61 xFIP trails only Hader. There is no question that he's been one of the team's best relievers so far and, as long as he keeps pitching at this level, there is no reason he should be in the discussion to be sent down.

Brewer bullpen rankings (ERA rank 1st, FIP rank 2nd, xFIP rank 3rd).

Hader (1-1-1)
Guerra (2-6-7)
Barnes (3-3-2)
Albers (4-2-3)
Anderson (5-7-5)
Claudio (6-5-8)
Wilson (7-4-4)
Petricka (8-9-9)
Williams (9-8-6)

Barnes and Albers (another Brewer Fan "favorite") has probably been the teams second and third best relievers so far.


Your Barnes example is the poster boy for stats clouding the real picture of reality. Statistically you rate him as a second or third best reliever, but my eyes and counsell’s eyes certainly don’t agree.

There’s a good reason CC has him 7th of 8 in The bullpen pecking order. Barnes pitches well when in the lowest leverage situations like Sunday, CC didn’t have much choice in last nights game. History suggests keeping Barnes far far away from high leverage situations.

With Jackson’s success in Japan, to go along with his success right now in AAA, bring him up. Potential upside far greater than Barnes in my opinion. Don’t think CC be disappointed either.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 8:30 AM Post
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Posts: 11478
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
JosephC said:
Barnes did a pretty nice job in last night's game. Did get bailed out a little bit on a great play by Arcia to end the inning, but had two strikeouts before that and a walk to Goldschmidt in an at-bat where Barnes was being careful when considering the hitter.

Time to do away with the assumptions that "I want this guy to do good" and "this guy is bad." Zach Davies was a guy that seemingly everyone wanted dumped and so far he is the only good starting pitcher that the Brewers have had in terms of what matters the most, actual run prevention (Davies ERA = 1.53, next best starter's ERA = 6.00). Barnes 4.05 ERA trails only Hader and Guerra among the relievers. Barnes 3.44 FIP trails only Hader and Albers. Barnes 2.61 xFIP trails only Hader. There is no question that he's been one of the team's best relievers so far and, as long as he keeps pitching at this level, there is no reason he should be in the discussion to be sent down.

Brewer bullpen rankings (ERA rank 1st, FIP rank 2nd, xFIP rank 3rd).

Hader (1-1-1)
Guerra (2-6-7)
Barnes (3-3-2)
Albers (4-2-3)
Anderson (5-7-5)
Claudio (6-5-8)
Wilson (7-4-4)
Petricka (8-9-9)
Williams (9-8-6)

Barnes and Albers (another Brewer Fan "favorite") has probably been the teams second and third best relievers so far.


Your Barnes example is the poster boy for stats clouding the real picture of reality. Statistically you rate him as a second or third best reliever, but my eyes and counsell’s eyes certainly don’t agree.

There’s a good reason CC has him 7th of 8 in The bullpen pecking order. Barnes pitches well when in the lowest leverage situations like Sunday, CC didn’t have much choice in last nights game. History suggests keeping Barnes far far away from high leverage situations.

With Jackson’s success in Japan, to go along with his success right now in AAA, bring him up. Potential upside far greater than Barnes in my opinion. Don’t think CC be disappointed either.


Barnes pitched the 8th yesterday. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning and has a WHIP under 1. You can want to dislike him. You can dislike him. But certainly don’t try to begin to push another false narrative that Counsell sees what you see.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 8:47 AM Post
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Barnes pitched the 8th, but we were up by 4 so it wasn't really a super high leverage situation. (edit: actually up only 3, thought the 3rd Yelich bomb was bottom 7th. Still only a 0.87 LI when Barnes entered the game)

gmLI measures the leverage index each time a pitcher enters a game, 1.00 is average, above means a pitcher is typically pitching high leverage spots, below means they are typically pitching low leverage.

Of course 17 games & 65 IP is a miniscule sample, but the bullpen pecking order as measured by gmLI so far this season is...

Hader (2.21) Guerra (1.58) Albers (1.43) Wilson (1.25) Claudio (1.25) Williams (0.62) Barnes (0.47) Chase (0.36) Petricka (0.25)


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 8:48 AM Post
Posts: 1493
Location: Madison, WI
Hader had 6 appearances prior to last night's game. Of those 6, 3 were "4 outs or more" appearances. Counsell appears more than willing to pitch Hader in more than one inning if needed. Hader did not pitch on the 13th or 14th. Counsell could have easily sent Hader out there to work the 8th and 9th considering it was a three run lead when Barnes entered and the Brewers were facing a team that was only 1/2 game behind them in the standings. Martinez, Carpenter, Goldschmidt and DeJong were the scheduled hitters. If Counsell lacks confidence in Barnes, he sure didn't show it last night.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: April 16, 2019, 8:53 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Barnes did a pretty nice job in last night's game. Did get bailed out a little bit on a great play by Arcia to end the inning, but had two strikeouts before that and a walk to Goldschmidt in an at-bat where Barnes was being careful when considering the hitter.

Time to do away with the assumptions that "I want this guy to do good" and "this guy is bad." Zach Davies was a guy that seemingly everyone wanted dumped and so far he is the only good starting pitcher that the Brewers have had in terms of what matters the most, actual run prevention (Davies ERA = 1.53, next best starter's ERA = 6.00). Barnes 4.05 ERA trails only Hader and Guerra among the relievers. Barnes 3.44 FIP trails only Hader and Albers. Barnes 2.61 xFIP trails only Hader. There is no question that he's been one of the team's best relievers so far and, as long as he keeps pitching at this level, there is no reason he should be in the discussion to be sent down.


Barnes actually got off to better starts in 2018 and 2017 than he did this year. Then he had dumpster fire Junes in both years (6.75 and 7.20 ERAs, respectively. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/34868) A single Barnes-ian blow-up regresses those statistics to the mean; while I'm happy when he delivers a scoreless inning, the last thing I want is for him to pitch in high-leverage situations...because signs of improvement are fleeting.


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