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2019 Brewers' pitching staff

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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 08, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
Posts: 578
Location: Milwaukee
MrTPlush said:
Saw this on ESPN tonight:

Occurrences of pitchers throwing 100+ pitches in a game.

2010 - 2,400
2018 - 1,200

I think the most surprising part of this is that you learned something of use on ESPN.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 08, 2019, 8:12 PM Post
Posts: 8578
Brew4U said:
Brew crew 92 said:
coolhandluke121 said:
Would you say he projects as a right-handed Hader?


For this year yes.
Because of his tj’s max 50 pitches/outing. But he has a starters mix, 99 fb plus plus slider, plus change and great command.


So our sixth ace?


LIKE


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 08, 2019, 9:11 PM Post
Posts: 11942
ClosetBrewerFan said:
MrTPlush said:
Saw this on ESPN tonight:

Occurrences of pitchers throwing 100+ pitches in a game.

2010 - 2,400
2018 - 1,200

I think the most surprising part of this is that you learned something of use on ESPN.


When the hotel only has like 35 channels options can be limited.

Though in more ESPN appropriate fashion one guy questioned if Fiers average career made his no-hitters less relevant and impressive. Some people are truly idiots.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 5:24 AM Post
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Took a look at where Brandon Woodruff currently ranks among all qualified major league starters in a handful of categories...

13th in Strikeouts (54 total)

9th in K/9 (11.48)

15th in K% (29.7%)

40th in BB/9 (2.55)

25th in HR/9 (0.85)

59th in ERA (4.25)

9th in FIP (2.87)

13th in xFIP (3.32)

11th in fWAR (1.2)

68th in WHIP (1.37)

Dead Last in BABIP (.385)

There are only ten guys even within 50 percentage points of his BABIP. That is seemingly an unsustainably high BABIP that is almost assuredly going to lower as the season progresses. In other words I am buying into Brandon Woodruff from this point moving forward.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 7:57 AM Post
Posts: 512
It seems like just a week ago that Woody was being thrown on the disappointment pile, and I remember a lot of comparisons to Wily Peralta early last season. But while they are similar hard throwing big guys Wily never seemed to carry the K rate to match his stuff. No problem there for Woodruff, I think he looks to be on a different trajectory for sure.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 8:26 AM Post
Posts: 1956
I was totally on board giving all the young guys a chance, but in hindsight it shouldn't be surprising that Woodruff appears to be the only guy who was ready. He's had more time to shore up his command and his offerings. That stuff matters a lot, regardless of raw talent. He looks kind of like Nelson in talent (not quite blue chip, but still good)except with a shorter "figuring it out" phase.

It would be a good argument for giving Burnes and Peralta more seasoning in AAA if the Brewers weren't contenders who desperately need them in the pen.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 8:42 AM Post
Posts: 3060
coolhandluke121 said:
I was totally on board giving all the young guys a chance, but in hindsight it shouldn't be surprising that Woodruff appears to be the only guy who was ready. He's had more time to shore up his command and his offerings. That stuff matters a lot, regardless of raw talent. He looks kind of like Nelson in talent (not quite blue chip, but still good)except with a shorter "figuring it out" phase.

It would be a good argument for giving Burnes and Peralta more seasoning in AAA if the Brewers weren't contenders who desperately need them in the pen.


Agree that woodruff was the only one ready for the rotation, age, experience likely the reason. I would slightly differ with the good but not blue chip commentary, his easy 97 And plus slider and close to plus command has him at the good level now with an improving change-up and command probably moving him closer to the top of the rotation in the near future.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 8:46 AM Post
Posts: 1956
I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 9:22 AM Post
Posts: 512
coolhandluke121 said:
I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.


I remember both Woodruff and Burnes having mid rotation upside in scouting reports and both seemed to top out about the same in prospect rankings. There aren't a lot of prospects that get ace or TOR type outlooks but like you say that doesn't mean these guys can't get there.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
Posts: 1007
Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
Posts: 11942
Lathund said:
Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.


If only 14 days of a baseball season predicted future performance too....


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 10:52 AM Post
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The pitching staff was always going to start to look better when they start going against poorer hitting teams. Those last 14 days covers the Mets, Rockies, Mets, and Nationals who sit 17-21 in OPS ranking as a team. Before that they were playing a lot against the Cards, Dodgers, and Cubs.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 10:54 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Lathund said:
Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.


If only 14 days of a baseball season predicted future performance too....


If anything, it's a reminder of the highs and lows that every team goes through over a 162-game season. This team will have more stretches this year where the pitching looks like trash, and fans are ready to give up. And it will have more stretches just like the last week when the pitching looks World Series-caliber.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 11:01 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
adambr2 said:
The results, as we know, have been dreadful.


At this still very early juncture the only results that matter are wins & losses, we are 13-9.

Individual category ranks for our pitchers prior to tonight's game were...

K9 9.34 (12th) BB9 3.94 (22nd) HR9 1.85 (28th)
ERA 5.21 (25th) FIP 5.07 (25th) xFIP 4.34 (17th)

The only thing dreadful is a fluky high HR9 (which can happen over less than 200 team IP thus far) which is driving the poor ERA/FIP numbers.

I'd bet our ERA/FIP are closer to our current xFIP at season's end than their current levels.


Thought it might be interesting to revisit this post from April 20th & see how the last three weeks have changed things...

K9 9.33 (9th) BB9 3.66 (20th) HR9 1.51 (26th)
ERA 4.60 (21st) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.14 (10th)

So in just under three weeks our current ERA/FIP have almost caught up with our xFIP from April 20th, while our current xFIP has lowered to a top 10 mark on account of our gains in BB9/HR9 & other teams' losses in K9.

Interesting to note is that our ERA is currently underperforming our xFIP, while over the last three years it has been the exact opposite with our ERA outperforming our xFIP by an average of 0.30 per season. (3.94 ERA vs 4.24 xFIP, 2016-18)

Assuming DJ's pixie dust wasn't solely responsible for that, it could indicate that our pitching staff is due for even more positive regression than some of the surface level indicators say.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 11:04 AM Post
Posts: 1007
MrTPlush said:
Lathund said:
Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.


If only 14 days of a baseball season predicted future performance too....


Of course they don't, but they also don't need to. After a tough schedule, a lot of bad luck, and some roster moves, the run prevention is simply getting more and more in line with what the underlying performance says it "should" be. The metrics that even when the staff ERA was in the mid 5s and the HR rate was on a record setting pace suggested that this staff was in fact a roughly average to above average one.

jjfanec said:
The pitching staff was always going to start to look better when they start going against poorer hitting teams.


That, and the peripherals, would have lead a reasonable person to that conclusion, yes. Playing 20/26 games against the Cardinals, Dodgers and Cubs isn't ideal. But that wasn't exactly the prevailing opinion here. There was quite a lot of doom and gloom; sell at the deadline, sign Kimbrel now or we'd be out of the race by mid May etc.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
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Re: Woodruff

BRANDON WOODRUFF

Wait! Don't leave! Only one pitcher has allowed more line drives so far this season than Woodruff, which might help explain how he's gotten hit so hard. Still, line drives are the least predictive batted ball type. The next piece of compelling research I see that suggests giving up line drives is a sticky "skill" will be the first. If those line drives start turning into fly balls, perhaps the home runs continue … which is a problem in that park. But he generated grounders at an above-average rate the last two seasons (53% in 2018, 47% in 2017) — albeit primarily as a reliever — so there's precedent to suggest he possesses skills to avoid fly balls. Command doesn't appear to be a problem — he was at least league-average by Command+ in 2017 and 2018 — and you don't find an 81st percentile K-BB% on your wire very often. I'm holding or adding and keeping a close eye on the trend of his line drives allowed.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 1:06 PM Post
Posts: 3060
coolhandluke121 said:
I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.


Yes, I misread your post, do agree if he keeps improving, will outperform his non-bluechip prospect rating. If he continues his improvement of his FB command he’s a 2. Then if he can command his change-up a 1.


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Online  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 1:16 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
coolhandluke121 said:
I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.


Yes, I misread your post, do agree if he keeps improving, will outperform his non-bluechip prospect rating. If he continues his improvement of his FB command he’s a 2. Then if he can command his change-up a 1.


Not to shabby for a guy who a few fans were tossing around as a "throw in" at the trade deadline last year. His dominant run as a reliever in August-October seems to have given him a lot of confidence.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 09, 2019, 1:33 PM Post
Posts: 1956
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Yes, I misread your post, do agree if he keeps improving, will outperform his non-bluechip prospect rating. If he continues his improvement of his FB command he’s a 2. Then if he can command his change-up a 1.


Not to shabby for a guy who a few fans were tossing around as a "throw in" at the trade deadline last year. His dominant run as a reliever in August-October seems to have given him a lot of confidence.


Also worth noting that having him the pen for a few months didn't seem to stunt his development in any significant way. I mean, I get that he wasn't getting as much work on all his pitches and pacing, but that's just a detour in his development, not a road block. So glad they have Burnes and Peralta in modified roles again. They'll get plenty more chances to start.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Brewers' pitching staff
Posted: May 10, 2019, 6:31 AM Post
Posts: 3060
I might be a month or so early in saying this, and yes I do know this is not the brewer optimism thread, but this pitching staff is the best I’ve seen in at least 27 years, maybe ever.

9 Starters deep, all at least ave to above, most with lots of experience pitching in big games, most still in their prime physically. Most important I’m confident in their ability to keep us in games.

The bullpen is even more exciting, with 3-4 of Burnes Peralta Anderson woodruff Nelson Houser joining the pen over the next month or two. Not to mention a youngin or two if needed from down below. Jeffress improving by the start, Albers pitching well, Hader the best there is, and then we have our secret true weapon in junior Guerra, who can close or pitch 3. This pen will be our ticket to the series.


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