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2019 Misc MLB News

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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 9:48 AM Post
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A team wins 17 out of 19 games, and a bunch of people call projection systems flawed.

:/

Winning 17 of 19 is exactly why the percentage of something happening wasn't 0%, which is why it is a projection, not a prediction.

Let's run this back a hundred times and see how many times the Brewers win 17 out of 19, coupled with the Cubs dropping eight in a row.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 10:00 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
A team wins 17 out of 19 games, and a bunch of people call projection systems flawed.

:/

Winning 17 of 19 is exactly why the percentage of something happening wasn't 0%, which is why it is a projection, not a prediction.

Let's run this back a hundred times and see how many times the Brewers win 17 out of 19, coupled with the Cubs dropping eight in a row.


I don't know what to say other than "Like" or "And 1" or "Upvote". If only there was a button...


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 10:05 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Exactly. Think of this way in regards to a hail mary in football down 5 from the 50 yd line. Projections say the leading team is 98% to win, the hail mary hits and the game flips. That doesn't mean there was some massive flaw in the projections.

Or in an example that we saw. STL is up a couple runs in the top of the 9th bases loaded 2 outs and Braun has 2 strikes on him. Projections say STL is say 97% chance to win, Braun hits grand slam and it flips. Doesn't mean there is some massive flaw in the math. The longshot happened, it's part of the equation.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
A team wins 17 out of 19 games, and a bunch of people call projection systems flawed.

:/

Winning 17 of 19 is exactly why the percentage of something happening wasn't 0%, which is why it is a projection, not a prediction.

Let's run this back a hundred times and see how many times the Brewers win 17 out of 19, coupled with the Cubs dropping eight in a row.


The issue IMO is the projections are used to make predictions, and when the counter argument is raised that there's a chance for a different outcome it gets poo-pooed because there's a 90% or whatever chance of that counter argument being wrong. Games are still played that swing the projections nightly, and those swings happen rapidly this time of year when multiple teams are within a handful of games in the standings. Projections for teams like the Yankees, Astros, Twins, etc making the postseason are very likely to hold up as predictive because they all had built up massive separation between them and the teams just outside the WC2 playoff spot. Despite the Brewers playing meh as a club from June through most of August, they remained just 3 games out of a playoff spot and 6 behind the division heading into September. Teams make 3 games up in the standings over a full month all the time. Setting their playoff odds at below 10% at that point was too low considering how close they were in the standings, particularly with upcoming games against the Cubs and Cards to make up ground quickly if they played well. Even if the Cubs didn't just lose 8 straight and buried themselves, the Brewers playing this well would actually have them in a stronger playoff position because they would have the central division lead at this point given that the Cards would have a few more losses and the Cubs/Cards would have been guaranteed 3 more losses between them with the final series of the season this weekend.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 10:30 AM Post
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10% possibility of an outcome happening. It happens.... these projections are garbage! Ehhh, what?


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
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Forget that they won 17/19 though. As late as yesterday they were at 5%, then it potentially swings 20 points because they beat a crappy Reds team twice and the Cardinals lose a game?

The people constantly ripping the projections apart aren't any more annoying to me than the people who take this stuff as law. Is it that unreasonable that some of these formulas are flawed and not accounting for things that a computer simply can't?


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 11:08 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Forget that they won 17/19 though. As late as yesterday they were at 5%, then it potentially swings 20 points because they beat a crappy Reds team twice and the Cardinals lose a game?


Before yesterday the Cards were 90 - 68 and the Brewers were 87 - 70 with 4 and 5 games to go respectively. To win the division outright, the Brewers would have to at a minimum go 4 - 1 and the Cards 0 - 4 (other option is 5 - 0, and 1 - 3). I think a 5% chance of that happening is about right.

After yesterday, the Cards were 90 - 69 and the Brewers 88 - 70 with 3 and 4 games to go respectively. To win the division outright, the Brewers would have to at a minimum 3 - 1 and the Cards 0 - 3 (or Brewers go 4 - 0 and Cards go 1 - 2). Obviously this is not out of the realm of possibility and as such the odds are better for the Brewers. 25% chance seems reasonable.

Someone else can do the math on this but it appears to me that the fact that there are so few games remaining means the odds change drastically with each outcome (Brewer win or loss). If it was early August they wouldn't be changing as much.

Another way to look at it is if you are tied in the standings going into the last game of the year your odds are 50% but if you lose they drop to 0% (or if you win they are 100%). So, yes big jumps are expected with so few rolls of the dice.

I am not a math whiz so someone else can revise or correct me here.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 11:11 AM Post
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I guess I just have a hard time believing that if you played out that scenario 20 times the Brewers would only end up on top once but the math is probably more solid than my head.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 11:31 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
I guess I just have a hard time believing that if you played out that scenario 20 times the Brewers would only end up on top once but the math is probably more solid than my head.


Math doesnt factor in craigtember...too bad for math!


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 1:51 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Forget that they won 17/19 though. As late as yesterday they were at 5%, then it potentially swings 20 points because they beat a crappy Reds team twice and the Cardinals lose a game?


Let's use your example of beating the Reds twice and the Cards losing once.

I'm making these numbers up, but let's also say the Brewers had a 60% chance to win each of those games and the Cards were also 60% (I'm guessing Cards probability was a bit lower, Brewers might have been, too, but let's just use those figures). The probability of two Brewers wins and one Cards loss was therefore .6 x .6 x .6 = .216.

That's 21.6% for that exact three-game scenario to play out and that just gets us to 1 game back. Then there are more games that need to work out just right this weekend. I could easily see us being 5% to win the division before yesterday.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 26, 2019, 1:53 PM Post
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Yeah math doesn't lie folks.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 5:31 AM Post
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The NL wild card game time hasn’t been announced yet. Does anyone have any clues as to what time the game will be at? I am guessing it will be in the evening because there is only one game that day. In the past they have had both wild card games on the same day.

I am really anxious to find out when the game is.


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 6:23 AM Post
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Polish Falcons said:
The NL wild card game time hasn’t been announced yet. Does anyone have any clues as to what time the game will be at? I am guessing it will be in the evening because there is only one game that day. In the past they have had both wild card games on the same day.

I am really anxious to find out when the game is.


7:10 7:00 7:15

Something like that.


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 6:25 AM Post
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Yeah, it's a Tuesday night, I can't think of why it would be a day game.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 6:47 AM Post
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Aren’t the wild card games usually late afternoon? 4:00pm or so?


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 6:53 AM Post
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No. Cubs-Rockies was a 7:10 start. Yankees-A's was 8:10. As long as the games are on different days there is no real incentive to put them during the day. The AL maybe? Because I think it's up against Monday Night Football which MLB is usually terrified of.


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 6:54 AM Post
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NVM, AL plays Wednesday.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
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Wild Card games will be at night. A tiebreaker Monday will be during the day since ESPN has the rights to those games and obviously they have Monday Night Football, as well


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Offline  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 9:43 AM Post
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I was wondering about 163 myself. Last year ours was I think a 1pm start, but the Dodgers and Rockies also had a 163. I haven't seen anything yet about times for this year. Anyone remember when last year's times were set?

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Online  Re: 2019 Misc MLB News
Posted: September 27, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
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Pretty sure it was set the day before. But there were two of them. It was a noon start at Wrigley, but my total guess would be it's pushed later if there is only one. But maybe not because the winner would have to travel to Atlanta, I think, but I'm getting a headache. If the Cards lost they'd stay put to host Washington assuming they finish ahead or tied and the Brewers would have to head somewhere to play WAS.


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