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Braun Working on a Swing Change

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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 8:27 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Brew4U said:
IntentionalHBP said:
is contract reconstruction allowed? I doubt this will happen but it would be nice to save money now and pay him later.


Why would he do this though? He already made a deal to pay him his worth further down the road. It’d take paying him even more money to do this.


On top of that, we're very close to the light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of the contract on the books, this year is already paid out unless you think that Braun's salary will inhibit a midseason acquisition. Next year it goes down and is the final guaranteed year. Then a buyout year, which will be interesting. I can't imagine he's worth anywhere near $15 million, but $4 of it is already a sunk cost in the buyout and Mark will probably fear the optics of buying out Braun.


The optics? Even the casual fan can see his performance declining significantly. I think the optics of paying a net $11M to burn a roster spot on a replacement level player would be much worse.

2020 is his last year as a Brewer, IMO. Barring some sort of amazing late career resurgence, no way is his 2021 option getting picked up.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 8:29 AM Post
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It's just too early to know. Both in this season and future seasons. Who knows what types of moves will be available to us between then and now. The Brewers have been pretty active in a lot of ways over the past few seasons.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
Posts: 4363
Braun's start to this year looks very similar to his April-May splits from last season - some of that is due to his regression as a player, but some is also due to bad luck with that babip...it's still too early to write him off, because he will have stretches of games where he can still carry them offensively. That being said, his days as a #3 hitter in lineups should be over due to that inconsistency that comes with age/regression. He isn't a lineup anchor anymore - I'd much rather see him in the #5-7 range in most batting orders assuming all the other key Brewer regulars are healthy.

I'm hoping Aguilar/Thames remains a 1B platoon, and Shaw finds a way to get going - assuming Yelich's absence isn't prolonged, I'd love to see lineups consisting of Cain/Yelich at the top followed by a 3-5 comprised of Grandal, Moose, and 1B in some order. Then you can plug in Shaw/Braun at spots 6-7.

Gamel provides tremendous value to this team as a 4th OF, which is his best role moving forward. He'll get extended PT just subbing for the regular OFs, let alone a few stints playing everyday during likely DL stints.

And I highly doubt a $4Mil buyout would be bad optics to rid themselves of Braun's payroll obligation if the writing is on the wall two offseasons from now that he's done as a player...that $11M will be much better spent on arbitration salaries/FA on prime-age players.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
bill hAll Star said:
Brew4U said:

Why would he do this though? He already made a deal to pay him his worth further down the road. It’d take paying him even more money to do this.


On top of that, we're very close to the light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of the contract on the books, this year is already paid out unless you think that Braun's salary will inhibit a midseason acquisition. Next year it goes down and is the final guaranteed year. Then a buyout year, which will be interesting. I can't imagine he's worth anywhere near $15 million, but $4 of it is already a sunk cost in the buyout and Mark will probably fear the optics of buying out Braun.


The optics? Even the casual fan can see his performance declining significantly. I think the optics of paying a net $11M to burn a roster spot on a replacement level player would be much worse.

2020 is his last year as a Brewer, IMO. Barring some sort of amazing late career resurgence, no way is his 2021 option getting picked up.


I assumed the chances were over 100% that someone would comment on that part. I may not have made it too clear, I think we'll decline the option but I do think Mark may think twice about it.

Mark picked up a similar option on Aramis Ramirez in 2015 where the choice was, $4 million on nothing or $16 million on an aging starter who was on the decline in the previous season. If the farm system is not fruitful and we're in our last "going for it" year and Braun hasn't fallen off a cliff, you never know.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 11:39 AM Post
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Is he blocking a younger better player at the moment? I really don't think so. The money's spent whether he's on the team or not. I guess I would rather take his current production with the chance he's going to put together some All Star level streaks here and there. The floor is probably about the same as anyone they would call up but there's a much higher ceiling with Braun.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 12:26 PM Post
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I think we need to be patient with Braun. Yes he's making a lot of money, but that's irrelevant at this point. I think he's a good veteran presence for this team. I also think he will have some hot streaks and my hope is, he will step up down the stretch and hopefully in the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: April 30, 2019, 1:48 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
Is he blocking a younger better player at the moment?


It might not be about a younger better player, it might be another player on the free agent market or a future trade.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 04, 2019, 10:35 PM Post
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Swing looks good.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 04, 2019, 10:35 PM Post
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He is now hitting .263

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 04, 2019, 10:36 PM Post
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OPS a few ticks shot of .800

from .606 to .797 in 4 days


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 1:20 AM Post
Posts: 2306
It's nice to see him channeling his inner Todd Helton for a few days. I'd still want him and Gamel 50/50


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:03 AM Post
Posts: 1956
Praise the lord. Before we anoint him the best hitter on the team again, let's just be grateful for the fact that he might not be terrible all year. We need him badly.

I know this is an opportune time to bash his detractors, but it kind of supports what those people have been saying about his role going forward. He always seems to do much better when he's well-rested, going on a tear after a few days off (or at least non-starts) and stints on the IL.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:17 AM Post
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[laughing] It’s almost as if you didn’t enjoy his masterpiece of a game last night.

Here’s hoping to many more those types of posts this year. It will mean good things are happening.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:42 AM Post
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He's not the best hitter on the team and he's not the worst. It's May 5th. Let the chips actually fall before anointing anyone as anything.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:56 AM Post
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He looks like he's locked in. Braun's still great at shooting outside half fastballs hard into RF. He need to forget about trying to pull hard stuff at his advanced age with that tree he uses as a bat.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 9:30 AM Post
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homer said:
He's not the best hitter on the team and he's not the worst. It's May 5th. Let the chips actually fall before anointing anyone as anything.


Since today is Cinco De Mayo, would those chips be tortilla chips?


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
He looks like he's locked in. Braun's still great at shooting outside half fastballs hard into RF. He need to forget about trying to pull hard stuff at his advanced age with that tree he uses as a bat.


For almost all of April, it looked like (perception is usually decieving, I know) that he was both flat-footing and trying to pull outside pitches. Braun is at his best when he's taking those outside pitches to right field like we're seeing the last several days. This isn't some secret, literally EVERYBODY knows this.

I also think it would be to Braun's benefit if he'd go with a bat that is even an inch or so shorter and/or an ounce or two lighter, but he (obviously) loves the plate coverage he feels that huge bat provides.

It is what it is. Braun is what he is. He's going to have a few of these hot streaks this year, just like he did last year and the end result will be a decent-ish looking slash line at the end of the year (probably).


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 10:34 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
He looks like he's locked in. Braun's still great at shooting outside half fastballs hard into RF. He need to forget about trying to pull hard stuff at his advanced age with that tree he uses as a bat.


For almost all of April, it looked like (perception is usually decieving, I know) that he was both flat-footing and trying to pull outside pitches. Braun is at his best when he's taking those outside pitches to right field like we're seeing the last several days. This isn't some secret, literally EVERYBODY knows this.

I also think it would be to Braun's benefit if he'd go with a bat that is even an inch or so shorter and/or an ounce or two lighter, but he (obviously) loves the plate coverage he feels that huge bat provides.

It is what it is. Braun is what he is. He's going to have a few of these hot streaks this year, just like he did last year and the end result will be a decent-ish looking slash line at the end of the year (probably).


He switched approaches midstream, imo, without telling anyone. Teams were and still are playing him to pull. Over the last few games, he started being Braun again and hitting balls hard to center and right. This will affect his power numbers negatively, sure, and he knows this, but hitting liners for a higher avg would be what this team needs and is what has worked for him.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 11:10 AM Post
Posts: 7942
His exit velocity is only slightly down from last year and he has a career high launch angle. Let’s give Braun more than on month.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: May 05, 2019, 11:34 AM Post
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rickh150 said:
RoCoBrewfan said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
He looks like he's locked in. Braun's still great at shooting outside half fastballs hard into RF. He need to forget about trying to pull hard stuff at his advanced age with that tree he uses as a bat.


For almost all of April, it looked like (perception is usually decieving, I know) that he was both flat-footing and trying to pull outside pitches. Braun is at his best when he's taking those outside pitches to right field like we're seeing the last several days. This isn't some secret, literally EVERYBODY knows this.

I also think it would be to Braun's benefit if he'd go with a bat that is even an inch or so shorter and/or an ounce or two lighter, but he (obviously) loves the plate coverage he feels that huge bat provides.

It is what it is. Braun is what he is. He's going to have a few of these hot streaks this year, just like he did last year and the end result will be a decent-ish looking slash line at the end of the year (probably).


He switched approaches midstream, imo, without telling anyone. Teams were and still are playing him to pull. Over the last few games, he started being Braun again and hitting balls hard to center and right. This will affect his power numbers negatively, sure, and he knows this, but hitting liners for a higher avg would be what this team needs and is what has worked for him.


He shouldn't keep secrets....particularly from Shaw.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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