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Braun Working on a Swing Change

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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 20, 2019, 10:06 AM Post
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homer said:
TJseven7 said:

I'm in no rush. He's not even 23 yet. The plan needs to be put in place for 2020 though.

I'm wondering how we avoid having 5 of our 6 top bats being LH in the near future.


I think that only matters if the lefties can't hit lefties, no?


Yep. Often it gets overblown with the lefty-lefty stuff. Good hitters, hit.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 20, 2019, 3:19 PM Post
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Grisham has a 958 ops vs lefties this season. Much lower then against righties but I think he sees them ok.......

I'm sure the Brewers are in no rush with him......this is his first season of hitting anywhere close to this level ..... .lets see if he can keep producing untill Sept....if so and Brewers are still in it he wou.d be worthy of a call up as a bat off the bench.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 21, 2019, 10:05 AM Post
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homer said:
TJseven7 said:

I'm in no rush. He's not even 23 yet. The plan needs to be put in place for 2020 though.

I'm wondering how we avoid having 5 of our 6 top bats being LH in the near future.


I think that only matters if the lefties can't hit lefties, no?



Right. Yelich and Moose absolutely have no trouble hitting lefties. I get a kick when opposing managers specifically make a pitching change to bring in a LHR to face Yelich.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 21, 2019, 10:16 AM Post
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Grisham's splits this year are nearly the same vs righties and lefties for what it's worth.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 21, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
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I've always liked Grisham, but like others have said, I really want to see more than a 1/2 season of great hitting before we anoint him the Next Big Thing. I expect him to perform at the big league level, but there's just no rush with the guy. Braun is hitting, Yelich is Yelich-ing, and I don't think the production we're getting out of Cain is indicative of his true talent. There's just no need to rush Grisham at this point.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 21, 2019, 10:53 AM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
homer said:
TJseven7 said:

I'm in no rush. He's not even 23 yet. The plan needs to be put in place for 2020 though.

I'm wondering how we avoid having 5 of our 6 top bats being LH in the near future.


I think that only matters if the lefties can't hit lefties, no?



Right. Yelich and Moose absolutely have no trouble hitting lefties. I get a kick when opposing managers specifically make a pitching change to bring in a LHR to face Yelich.


Not sure I follow...you get a kick out of the opposing manager making a move to bring in a lefty against Yelich even though he does significantly worse against LHP?

His stats are still phenomenally good against LHP, but his splits are pretty large. There is about a .300 difference in his OPS and his slugging has a .200 difference.

Seems like a logical move if you ask me. Much better chance to get him out.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 21, 2019, 11:15 AM Post
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Back to Braun....OPS is over 800

His home/road splits are pretty severe. He's a .906 OPS guy at home and .701 on the road.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 21, 2019, 12:14 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:


Right. Yelich and Moose absolutely have no trouble hitting lefties. I get a kick when opposing managers specifically make a pitching change to bring in a LHR to face Yelich.


Not sure I follow...you get a kick out of the opposing manager making a move to bring in a lefty against Yelich even though he does significantly worse against LHP?

His stats are still phenomenally good against LHP, but his splits are pretty large. There is about a .300 difference in his OPS and his slugging has a .200 difference.

Seems like a logical move if you ask me. Much better chance to get him out.[/quote]

If he was "bad" against lefties, I feel like it would make some modicum of sense. Burning a mound visit and a reliever to try to get a guy out who "only" has a .950 OPS vs lefties (and was almost platoon neutral last year) seems like a waste of resources. IMO of course.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 27, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
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I know we are bit over a year away. But does Gamel have any shot at becoming Brauns replacement in the OF? Granted I think he’s better served as a 4th now, but he could keep growing into an everyday bat. Yelich Cain and Gamel could be it for a few years then.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 27, 2019, 12:10 PM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
I know we are bit over a year away. But does Gamel have any shot at becoming Brauns replacement in the OF? Granted I think he’s better served as a 4th now, but he could keep growing into an everyday bat. Yelich Cain and Gamel could be it for a few years then.


Gamel has 18 HR in around 1100 career PA's, that doesn't play very well at a corner OF spot so no he isn't a replacement for Braun. Nice player who has exceeded my expectations this year though.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 27, 2019, 12:25 PM Post
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Yeah, Gamel isn’t the answer. He’s great to have on this team but he just won’t hit enough to be an answer. But hey, I heard Braun is working on another extension so we probably don’t have to worry anyways.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: July 27, 2019, 4:44 PM Post
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I like Gamel, I'm glad he's on the team, and he's pretty ok for a 4th OF. I'd like it if he hit for a little more power, even socked a few more doubles or whatever, but he's alright for what he is. He plays good D, is a good defensive replacement and is a decent LH pinch hitter. I don't think anyone should be clamoring for the guy to be starting in the corner outfield though.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:32 PM Post
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A look at Braun's Season-

Overall Stat Line: 144 Games / 113 Starts - .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22 HR & 75 RBI

Stats as a starter: .295/.354/.528/.882 with 22HR & 74 RBIS
Stats as a sub: .138/.188/.172/.360 (32 plate appearances)

Stats vs. RHP: .285/.334/.470/.805 (12 HR- 332PA)
Stats vs. LHP: .287/.360/.573/.933 (10 HR- 175PA)

Stats in 1st Half: .271/.320/.454/.774
Stats in 2nd Half: .307/.377/.587/.964

RISP: .290/.373/.561/.934


Overall, Braun had a pretty great regular season staying relatively healthy and contributing. His numbers as a starter are what you hope he can continue into next season. It's not a shock that he struggled off the bench or as a DH as I'm sure he just did not loosen up in the same way. Will be interesting to track next season but what will also be interesting is to see if 1B vs. LHP will be back in his repertoire.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:14 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
A look at Braun's Season-

Overall Stat Line: 144 Games / 113 Starts - .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22 HR & 75 RBI

Stats as a starter: .295/.354/.528/.882 with 22HR & 74 RBIS
Stats as a sub: .138/.188/.172/.360 (32 plate appearances)

Stats vs. RHP: .285/.334/.470/.805 (12 HR- 332PA)
Stats vs. LHP: .287/.360/.573/.933 (10 HR- 175PA)

Stats in 1st Half: .271/.320/.454/.774
Stats in 2nd Half: .307/.377/.587/.964

RISP: .290/.373/.561/.934


Overall, Braun had a pretty great regular season staying relatively healthy and contributing. His numbers as a starter are what you hope he can continue into next season. It's not a shock that he struggled off the bench or as a DH as I'm sure he just did not loosen up in the same way. Will be interesting to track next season but what will also be interesting is to see if 1B vs. LHP will be back in his repertoire.


I would hope that they get him a bunch of 1B practice in spring training next year. That gives us alot more options on who to play. If Thames gets in a slump/injured, Braun to 1B and Grisham/Gamel starts OF.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
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There were 48 players this year that made 19 million dollars or more. Braun returned 1.9 fWAR/1.8 bWAR on that investment.

Some players that made as much or more than Braun to perform similarly or worse include Wade Davis (-0.2 fWAR/-1.3 bWAR), Rich Hill (0.9 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Justin Upton (-0.2 fWAR/-0.9 bWAR), Kenley Janesn (1.2 fWAR/0.2 bWAR), Ryan Zimmerman (0.1 fWAR/-0.2 bWAR), Wei Yin Chen (-0.4 fWAR/-1.0 bWAR), Alex Gordon (1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR), Russell Martin (1.2 fWAR/0.7 bWAR), Yadier Molina (1.1 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Jason Heyward (2.0 fWAR/2.0 bWAR), Eric Hosmer (-0.5 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Rick Porcello (1.8 fWAR/1.2 bWAR), Johnny Cueto (0.0 fWAR/0.1 bWAR), Shin Soo Choo (1.8 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Buster Posey (1.9 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Robinson Cano (0.8 fWAR/0.3 bWAR), Jake Arrieta (1.1 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Jordan Zimmermann (1.3 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Joey Votto (0.7 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Giancarlo Stanton (0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Felix Hernandez (-0.1 fWAR/-0.6 bWAR), Albert Pujols (-0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Yoenis Cespedes (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Miguel Cabrera (-0.3 fWAR/0.0 bWAR).

By my count that is over half the list that performed around Braun's level or worse for equal or more money.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: September 30, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
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Sad to see Braun's career average continue to fall below .300, at .298 now.

If he has the same number of ABs next year as this year, he would need to hit .333 to get the career average back up to .300.

Right now his career 135 OPS+ has him at 67th all-time for players with at least 7000 PA


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: September 30, 2019, 4:24 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
There were 48 players this year that made 19 million dollars or more. Braun returned 1.9 fWAR/1.8 bWAR on that investment.

Some players that made as much or more than Braun to perform similarly or worse include Wade Davis (-0.2 fWAR/-1.3 bWAR), Rich Hill (0.9 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Justin Upton (-0.2 fWAR/-0.9 bWAR), Kenley Janesn (1.2 fWAR/0.2 bWAR), Ryan Zimmerman (0.1 fWAR/-0.2 bWAR), Wei Yin Chen (-0.4 fWAR/-1.0 bWAR), Alex Gordon (1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR), Russell Martin (1.2 fWAR/0.7 bWAR), Yadier Molina (1.1 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Jason Heyward (2.0 fWAR/2.0 bWAR), Eric Hosmer (-0.5 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Rick Porcello (1.8 fWAR/1.2 bWAR), Johnny Cueto (0.0 fWAR/0.1 bWAR), Shin Soo Choo (1.8 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Buster Posey (1.9 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Robinson Cano (0.8 fWAR/0.3 bWAR), Jake Arrieta (1.1 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Jordan Zimmermann (1.3 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Joey Votto (0.7 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Giancarlo Stanton (0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Felix Hernandez (-0.1 fWAR/-0.6 bWAR), Albert Pujols (-0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Yoenis Cespedes (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Miguel Cabrera (-0.3 fWAR/0.0 bWAR).

By my count that is over half the list that performed around Braun's level or worse for equal or more money.


It’s also somewhat unfair to lump that group together. While he made that much this year, it’s skewed because he made far less in the earlier years of his contract(s). Averaging it with other previous salaries makes the number seem less


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 6:43 AM Post
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DHonks said:
sveumrules said:
There were 48 players this year that made 19 million dollars or more. Braun returned 1.9 fWAR/1.8 bWAR on that investment.

Some players that made as much or more than Braun to perform similarly or worse include Wade Davis (-0.2 fWAR/-1.3 bWAR), Rich Hill (0.9 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Justin Upton (-0.2 fWAR/-0.9 bWAR), Kenley Janesn (1.2 fWAR/0.2 bWAR), Ryan Zimmerman (0.1 fWAR/-0.2 bWAR), Wei Yin Chen (-0.4 fWAR/-1.0 bWAR), Alex Gordon (1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR), Russell Martin (1.2 fWAR/0.7 bWAR), Yadier Molina (1.1 fWAR/1.3 bWAR), Jason Heyward (2.0 fWAR/2.0 bWAR), Eric Hosmer (-0.5 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Rick Porcello (1.8 fWAR/1.2 bWAR), Johnny Cueto (0.0 fWAR/0.1 bWAR), Shin Soo Choo (1.8 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Buster Posey (1.9 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Robinson Cano (0.8 fWAR/0.3 bWAR), Jake Arrieta (1.1 fWAR/0.9 bWAR), Jordan Zimmermann (1.3 fWAR/-0.3 bWAR), Joey Votto (0.7 fWAR/1.6 bWAR), Giancarlo Stanton (0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Felix Hernandez (-0.1 fWAR/-0.6 bWAR), Albert Pujols (-0.4 fWAR/0.4 bWAR), Yoenis Cespedes (0.0 fWAR/0.0 bWAR), Miguel Cabrera (-0.3 fWAR/0.0 bWAR).

By my count that is over half the list that performed around Braun's level or worse for equal or more money.


It’s also somewhat unfair to lump that group together. While he made that much this year, it’s skewed because he made far less in the earlier years of his contract(s). Averaging it with other previous salaries makes the number seem less


They signed him to an extension averaging 19 million a year (plus 2 million a year deferred) in 2011. There's no "He made far less earlier in the contract" portion of this.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 8:07 AM Post
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Who cares what other players did at the same cost. Just because another team was dumb doesn't make us being dumb okay. If it is a bad contract it is a bad contract we should learn from. If we want to win a World Series bad contracts are not going to help or being like other teams. We need to be smarter than teams with big payrolls that can handle poor contracts.

THAT being said the Braun contract is probably not going to be a big deal if he repeats his 2019 next year. It won't be great production for the money, but 2 WAR? Yah, that is a productive starter so hard to complain. I think we got a tad lucky his big contract ended up covering mostly non competing years or the start of the upswing where his salary ended up not really being a big burden on overall payroll. For instance next year we can just backload a players contract if it is honestly that big of a deal, though backloading is pretty uncommon.

I think this would have been a bigger deal had we started our rebuild when many thought we should have. If we started rebuilding in 2013 and were competing by say 2015/2016 then we would have had a larger payroll by 2017. It really would have been a bit annoying even if he was still semi productive like he is now.

I hope he can be decent at 1B because he could be a solid option in 2021 IF he continues to hit next year. The option for 2021 only costs $11mil...which may make sense depending on our situation.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 8:17 AM Post
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When it comes down to a final year and the player has been productive up until that point I don't think it can any longer be considered a bad contract. Just my opinion. Much of the hand-wringing was born from a time when it looked like Braun was falling off a cliff due to nagging injuries and a missed opportunity to trade him. Here we are a few years later and he's been an important piece in the 2nd to last year of his deal. The contract is nowhere near the disaster oft seen throughout the game.


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