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Braun Working on a Swing Change

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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 8:29 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Who cares what other players did at the same cost. Just because another team was dumb doesn't make us being dumb okay. If it is a bad contract it is a bad contract we should learn from.


But what if the contract isn't as bad as some fans believe it is, with the evidence being that Braun performed the same or better than over half of the players making as much or more money than him?

Maybe, if that is the case, the fans have more to learn than the front office does.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 8:34 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Also, with how chummy he and the owner seem to be it wouldn't surprise me in the least if there was a specific need this offseason (say signing Grandal) and Mark asked him to do some tricky accounting on his contract that Braun wouldn't do it to try and win in his last year or two. Something like moving 5 more mil to the backloaded post career payments he already has set. Granted, it's a little odd for a billionaire to ask a 'tens of millionaire' to help him out, but seems there is year to year budgets the team worries about.

Overall, considering how this looked as of a couple years ago when the injuries were piling up I think they came out OK. He was a critical part this year. I don't think the chances of him staying healthy again all next year area great, but it's clear the guy can still hit if healthy.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 9:23 AM Post
Posts: 11882
sveumrules said:
MrTPlush said:
Who cares what other players did at the same cost. Just because another team was dumb doesn't make us being dumb okay. If it is a bad contract it is a bad contract we should learn from.


But what if the contract isn't as bad as some fans believe it is, with the evidence being that Braun performed the same or better than over half of the players making as much or more money than him?

Maybe, if that is the case, the fans have more to learn than the front office does.


Well it isn't as bad as some make it out to be because he rebounded this year. Still not worth it, but far from a huge problem. It is just lazy to compare him to a bunch of other old players. Most of those teams have way more payroll than us. Looking at it Alex Gordon seems to be the only one on a non large market...and really that is just the Royals keeping a fan favorite through a rebuild more than actually expecting big production. It also doesn't even take into consideration their production over the entirety of their contract which is probably more important...it is just showing one year. Not saying a bunch of them would suddenly look better than Braun, but it is far more relevant than one year in the contract.

I just don't get always trying to rationalize this contract by using other examples, especially when those examples are on teams with an incredible amount of payroll. A $15mil disaster contract is like a $30mil disaster for other teams. Like I said though I don't think the Braun contract is bad, but it still looks like something we would have been better off without. I don't think people are really calling it a disaster anymore. He still has another year on it though and if we is more like his first half self then that is really going to hurt. If he is more like his overall 2019 numbers then I think we will shrug it off looking back.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
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With the $4 million buyout after 2020 and accounting for the deferred payments from 2022-2031, Ryan Braun will wind up being paid $213,000,000 for 14 seasons.. That's just over 15 million per year. Some years overpaid and some years grossly underpaid. The deal was just fine for the Brewers.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 10:19 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
With the $4 million buyout after 2020 and accounting for the deferred payments from 2022-2031, Ryan Braun will wind up being paid $213,000,000 for 14 seasons.. That's just over 15 million per year. Some years overpaid and some years grossly underpaid. The deal was just fine for the Brewers.


This has been pointed out numerous times but you cannot just roll everything into one to call the current deal "good."

Obviously the first 8/45 was a fantastic value but this is a completely separate entity from the 2nd which was given out well before he hit free agency. I'm not saying the second deal is looking all that terrible but the value of the current deal cannot just be combined into the original deal as people seem to like to do, this contract has nothing to do with the first contract and was not forced upon us by the first contract.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 10:30 AM Post
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Obviously the Brewers didn't/couldn't have seen Braun's PED stuff coming when they signed him to that massive deal. When the news/drama/suspension went down, it appeared that the Brewers were going to be dealt a terrible hand and be stuck with an albatross of a contract. The fact that Braun has continued to be a productive bat late into the deal has salvaged much of the negative value the team was looking at several years ago. While it's safe to say that the PED stuff has cast a bit of a shadow on that "face of the franchise"-type contract, the fact that the production helps justify it I think can be seen as a win by this point.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 10:32 AM Post
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adambr2 said:

This has been pointed out numerous times but you cannot just roll everything into one to call the current deal "good."

Obviously the first 8/45 was a fantastic value but this is a completely separate entity from the 2nd which was given out well before he hit free agency. I'm not saying the second deal is looking all that terrible but the value of the current deal cannot just be combined into the original deal as people seem to like to do, this contract has nothing to do with the first contract and was not forced upon us by the first contract.


I can look at it any way I want. Even the 2nd contract isn't turning out too bad given the year Braun just had in the second to last year. If Braun had left as a free after 2015, the Brewers easily could have done far worse with the money.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 10:44 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
adambr2 said:

This has been pointed out numerous times but you cannot just roll everything into one to call the current deal "good."

Obviously the first 8/45 was a fantastic value but this is a completely separate entity from the 2nd which was given out well before he hit free agency. I'm not saying the second deal is looking all that terrible but the value of the current deal cannot just be combined into the original deal as people seem to like to do, this contract has nothing to do with the first contract and was not forced upon us by the first contract.


I can look at it any way I want. Even the 2nd contract isn't turning out too bad given the year Braun just had in the second to last year. If Braun had left as a free after 2015, the Brewers easily could have done far worse with the money.


You can, but it is wrong.

Saying you could do worse doesn't make it any better. It is what it is. If we would have missed the postseason by a game would you have just been like, "Well we could have done worse." If we lose 100 games do we just say, "We could have done worse." I hope Stearns doesn't shrug off his bad moves figuring he could have done worse. You have to acknowledge when something was the wrong idea and learn from it.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 10:45 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
I can look at it any way I want.


Image


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 11:12 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
You can, but it is wrong.

Saying you could do worse doesn't make it any better. It is what it is. If we would have missed the postseason by a game would you have just been like, "Well we could have done worse." If we lose 100 games do we just say, "We could have done worse." I hope Stearns doesn't shrug off his bad moves figuring he could have done worse. You have to acknowledge when something was the wrong idea and learn from it.


What a silly statement.

And that contract precedes Stearns there chief.

And yes you do have to factor in both how the money could have been better spent and how it could've been worse. People like you are going to be surprised to see where that 2nd contract falls in terms of the the good and bad signed over that span.


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 11:14 AM Post
Posts: 11882
True Blue Brew Crew said:
MrTPlush said:
You can, but it is wrong.

Saying you could do worse doesn't make it any better. It is what it is. If we would have missed the postseason by a game would you have just been like, "Well we could have done worse." If we lose 100 games do we just say, "We could have done worse." I hope Stearns doesn't shrug off his bad moves figuring he could have done worse. You have to acknowledge when something was the wrong idea and learn from it.


What a silly statement.

And that contract precedes Stearns there chief.

And yes you do have to factor in both how the money could have been better spent and how it could've been worse. People like you are going to be surprised to see where that 2nd contract falls in terms of the the good and bad signed over that span.



Uhhhhhhh, nowhere did I claim it was a Stearns move? I figured it made sense to hope our current GM doesn't shrug off his bad moves vs. talking about Doug Melvin and his poor choice to eat TacoBell with stomach issues.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
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MrTPlush tried telling me it was far fetched that Braun would have a big second half. MrTPlush was wrong.


#RyanBraunForever

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 1:41 PM Post
Posts: 11882
Brew4U said:
MrTPlush tried telling me it was far fetched that Braun would have a big second half. MrTPlush was wrong.


#RyanBraunForever


Lol I would like to see where I said that, cause don't think I did. But I guess whatever gets you pumped up about him.


Brew4U said:

Ryan Braun slashed .282/.363/.903 combined in the months of August, September and October a season ago and should be counted on doing the same. That line is in line with his career splits during those months. As the summer heats up, so does Braun.


MrTPlush said:
Taking the last three years collectively because in my opinion if we want to make it seem like there is a trend we should probably use more than a single year.

April - .910
May - .808
June - .829
July - .756
August - .856
September - .862

Pre All Star Break - .822
Post All Star Break - .862

So I am not saying you are wrong...but the difference isn't terribly dramatic and at 35 years old it is pretty hard to predict what he can and can't do like the past. If I was a betting man I would probably take the over on an .800 OPS the rest of the way...but hardly assured.


I didn't agree nor disagree with you. I just posted factual evidence that showed he actually hasn't been some huge second half player (compared to the first half) the last three years combined. I even said I would predict a .800+ OPS for him. I didn't doubt or call anything farfetched.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 1:48 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Brew4U said:
MrTPlush tried telling me it was far fetched that Braun would have a big second half. MrTPlush was wrong.


#RyanBraunForever


Lol I would like to see where I said that, cause don't think I did. But I guess whatever gets you pumped up about him.


Brew4U said:

Ryan Braun slashed .282/.363/.903 combined in the months of August, September and October a season ago and should be counted on doing the same. That line is in line with his career splits during those months. As the summer heats up, so does Braun.


MrTPlush said:
Taking the last three years collectively because in my opinion if we want to make it seem like there is a trend we should probably use more than a single year.

April - .910
May - .808
June - .829
July - .756
August - .856
September - .862

Pre All Star Break - .822
Post All Star Break - .862

So I am not saying you are wrong...but the difference isn't terribly dramatic and at 35 years old it is pretty hard to predict what he can and can't do like the past. If I was a betting man I would probably take the over on an .800 OPS the rest of the way...but hardly assured.


I didn't agree nor disagree with you. I just posted factual evidence that showed he actually hasn't been some huge second half player (compared to the first half) the last three years combined. I even said I would predict a .800+ OPS for him. I didn't doubt or call anything farfetched.


We all know what you meant Mr. Negativity. #RyanBraunForever

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 1:50 PM Post
Posts: 11882
Brew4U said:
We all know what you meant Mr. Negativity. #RyanBraunForever


Haha not really...sorry your statement about me was wrong.


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Offline  Re: Braun Working on a Swing Change
Posted: October 01, 2019, 1:54 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
MrTPlush said:
Brew4U said:
We all know what you meant Mr. Negativity. #RyanBraunForever


Haha not really...sorry your statement about me was wrong.

[wink]

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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