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Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 3:25 PM Post
Posts: 44
FVBrewerFan said:
Brew crew 92 said:
What I don’t understand is how you can watch jimmy all of 2017 prior to the injury and not only think he’s turned the corner, but at a minimum would see an ace like pitcher moving forward. Some people keep mentioning “outlier” season, injury notwithstanding, like he will regress back to a pumpkin moving forward. I get it, he needs to prove to everybody that he can come back from this injury, but enough of the outlier season talk.


Strawman argument. Nobody is saying he will regress back into a pumpkin. We're saying we don't know, and until we do by definition 2017 was an outlier.


To call his third full season an outlier, while technically true, is a pretty hollow assessment of where he was at. Young, talented players tend to improve over time heading towards their athletic prime. If he had pitched six full season and his last one was was great while the other five were average, saying outlier is more sufficient. But many players struggle early on. Its just kind of a pointless thing to say. The bigger picture is that he took a big leap forward and there were tangible reasons to point to for his improvement.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 3:58 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.


The point is until he repeats 2017, no matter how he did it, no matter how good he looked doing it, no matter how convincingly he did it, it's a one-off season. Add onto that the unknowns of his injury (and even though it looks better than a lot of other shoulder injuries, there are still unknowns) and you have not only a classic outlier season, but additional worries about him being able to repeat it.

Baseball is littered with players who, for a whole lot of different reasons including injury, had seasons which were not typical of the rest of their career. Some of the more memorable ones for me are:

Roger Maris (1961)
Mark Fidrych (1976)
Pat Listach ( 1992)
Brady Anderson (1996)
Jeff Francoeur (2006)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2008)

Some of those guys had nice careers, some not so nice, but none of them were the player they were in their peak year at any other time in their career. I am sure at the time they had their peak seasons the was plenty of talk about their future being bright, but they were outliers never to be seen again.

Until Nelson repeats his 2017 season, or betters it, it is the dictionary definition of an outlier. That doesn't mean it will always be, and it doesn't mean Nelson can't be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it just means he has to prove it.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 4:19 PM Post
Posts: 2636
Cirilloing said:
To call his third full season an outlier, while technically true, is a pretty hollow assessment of where he was at. Young, talented players tend to improve over time heading towards their athletic prime. If he had pitched six full season and his last one was was great while the other five were average, saying outlier is more sufficient. But many players struggle early on. Its just kind of a pointless thing to say. The bigger picture is that he took a big leap forward and there were tangible reasons to point to for his improvement.

So what is the underlying assumption here? That Jimmy is so talented he was destined to have the season he had in 2017? The league is littered with very talented ball players that put up a single solid season and never amounted to much more than that one season. I'm sure in every one of those instances there were stories of tangible reasons to explain that one season. I don't think it's any less hollow to assume that 2017 Jimmy is the Jimmy we get going forward.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 4:54 PM Post
Posts: 208
BillScottCanRake said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.


The point is until he repeats 2017, no matter how he did it, no matter how good he looked doing it, no matter how convincingly he did it, it's a one-off season. Add onto that the unknowns of his injury (and even though it looks better than a lot of other shoulder injuries, there are still unknowns) and you have not only a classic outlier season, but additional worries about him being able to repeat it.

Baseball is littered with players who, for a whole lot of different reasons including injury, had seasons which were not typical of the rest of their career. Some of the more memorable ones for me are:

Roger Maris (1961)
Mark Fidrych (1976)
Pat Listach ( 1992)
Brady Anderson (1996)
Jeff Francoeur (2006)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2008)

Some of those guys had nice careers, some not so nice, but none of them were the player they were in their peak year at any other time in their career. I am sure at the time they had their peak seasons the was plenty of talk about their future being bright, but they were outliers never to be seen again.

Until Nelson repeats his 2017 season, or betters it, it is the dictionary definition of an outlier. That doesn't mean it will always be, and it doesn't mean Nelson can't be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it just means he has to prove it.


I’m telling jimmy you guys think his 2017 season an “outlier”.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 6:05 PM Post
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Hard to call 1/3 of the sample an outlier in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 8:17 PM Post
Posts: 4262
I already answered what was the cause for 2017. Nelson's CB improved to above league avg from below avg. That of course made his Fastball more effective. 2017 will be an outlier if the curveball isn't above league average moving forward. By all accounts the breaking pitches seem to be there at this time. There is higher hope on his future performance than many are suggesting it will be.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 10:23 PM Post
Posts: 44
82brewcrew82 said:
Cirilloing said:
To call his third full season an outlier, while technically true, is a pretty hollow assessment of where he was at. Young, talented players tend to improve over time heading towards their athletic prime. If he had pitched six full season and his last one was was great while the other five were average, saying outlier is more sufficient. But many players struggle early on. Its just kind of a pointless thing to say. The bigger picture is that he took a big leap forward and there were tangible reasons to point to for his improvement.

So what is the underlying assumption here? That Jimmy is so talented he was destined to have the season he had in 2017? The league is littered with very talented ball players that put up a single solid season and never amounted to much more than that one season. I'm sure in every one of those instances there were stories of tangible reasons to explain that one season. I don't think it's any less hollow to assume that 2017 Jimmy is the Jimmy we get going forward.


if your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 10:37 PM Post
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I think we should sit back, relax, and see what Jimmy does in 2019 rather than getting worked up about things we can't possibly know the answer to.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 13, 2019, 10:38 PM Post
Posts: 44
lukevan said:
Hard to call 1/3 of the sample an outlier in my opinion.


this is really the trump card to what is already a very tired argument and a strange hill to die on..


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 6:02 AM Post
Posts: 208
brewcrewdue80 said:
I already answered what was the cause for 2017. Nelson's CB improved to above league avg from below avg. That of course made his Fastball more effective. 2017 will be an outlier if the curveball isn't above league average moving forward. By all accounts the breaking pitches seem to be there at this time. There is higher hope on his future performance than many are suggesting it will be.


Yes. He struck out the side with his breaking stuff, without the FB he’s gonna have moving forward with innings under his belt. As long as he’s healthy he is going to help us big time at some point early in season.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 6:45 AM Post
Posts: 1869
Brew crew 92 said:
BillScottCanRake said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.


The point is until he repeats 2017, no matter how he did it, no matter how good he looked doing it, no matter how convincingly he did it, it's a one-off season. Add onto that the unknowns of his injury (and even though it looks better than a lot of other shoulder injuries, there are still unknowns) and you have not only a classic outlier season, but additional worries about him being able to repeat it.

Baseball is littered with players who, for a whole lot of different reasons including injury, had seasons which were not typical of the rest of their career. Some of the more memorable ones for me are:

Roger Maris (1961)
Mark Fidrych (1976)
Pat Listach ( 1992)
Brady Anderson (1996)
Jeff Francoeur (2006)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2008)

Some of those guys had nice careers, some not so nice, but none of them were the player they were in their peak year at any other time in their career. I am sure at the time they had their peak seasons the was plenty of talk about their future being bright, but they were outliers never to be seen again.

Until Nelson repeats his 2017 season, or betters it, it is the dictionary definition of an outlier. That doesn't mean it will always be, and it doesn't mean Nelson can't be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it just means he has to prove it.


I’m telling jimmy you guys think his 2017 season an “outlier”.


Yeah and take the ball and go home too, while you are crying to mama. Pat Listach is the one that jumps in my mind also.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
Posts: 2636
Cirilloing said:
If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 8:14 AM Post
Posts: 10042
I think the odds Jimmy Nelson is 2017 good ever again are probably low...but then again I can't say I would be confident in him ever being like that again without the injury. He struck out 10.2/9....that is pretty insane. That is about what Greinke did for us in 2011 and that was Greinke's career high. That was higher than Sheets and Gallardo EVER had. You don't have to be a risky person to bet against him being that good again.

I expect him to be more like his 2015 self. I am not confident he is going to strike people out at that rate again and I don't know how his control will be post injury. That would not be all that bad to be honest. Repeating 2017 would have been a feat anyway.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 8:27 AM Post
Posts: 208
82brewcrew82 said:
Cirilloing said:
If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.


Ok then. Jimmy finished ninth in the Cy Young voting in 2017 so yeah i’d say he not only turn the corner but he was an ace. And I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks barring injury that he will be that pitcher again at some point in 2017. Based upon the evidence that I’ve seen I would say that is being “ cautiously optimistic “.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Cirilloing said:
If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.


Ok then. Jimmy finished ninth in the Cy Young voting in 2017 so yeah i’d say he not only turn the corner but he was an ace. And I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks barring injury that he will be that pitcher again at some point in 2017. Based upon the evidence that I’ve seen I would say that is being “ cautiously optimistic “.


Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 11:01 AM Post
Posts: 2636
Brew crew 92 said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Cirilloing said:
If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.


Ok then. Jimmy finished ninth in the Cy Young voting in 2017 so yeah i’d say he not only turn the corner but he was an ace. And I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks barring injury that he will be that pitcher again at some point in 2017. Based upon the evidence that I’ve seen I would say that is being “ cautiously optimistic “.

Assuming a near best case scenario isn't being cautiously optimistic, that is just plain optimistic. I'd bet there have been dozens upon dozens of pitchers that have made the top ten in CY Young voting and were never heard of before or after. The real question is how many top ten CY Young finishers have destroyed their shoulder and finished in the top ten of CY Young voting afterward. You may be right (and I think you probably are) but that isn't the argument that would convince me.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 11:06 AM Post
Posts: 2636
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.

If I remember correctly, about a year ago, you were on the front lines of "We don't need to add a pitcher because Chase Anderson has been pitching like an ace for his last 200 innings bandwagon", no?


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 11:12 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
He struck out 10.2/9....that is pretty insane. That is about what Greinke did for us in 2011 and that was Greinke's career high. That was higher than Sheets and Gallardo EVER had.


I think this is a little misleading, without digging into it very much, it was a different group of hitters who have gradually cared less and less about striking out. The average K/9 in 2017 for the NL was 8.4. In 2011 it was 7.3. In 2004 it was 6.4. I would say Sheets posting a 10 K/9 in 2004 is much better than Nelson posting 10.2 in 2017


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 11:19 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.


Chase pre-2017 | 418 IP (96 ERA+)
Jimmy pre-2017 | 436 IP (93 ERA+)

Nelson actually had a slightly longer track record of mediocrity than Chase did prior to 2017.

Everyone's free to come up with their own definition of outlier, but when you have 436 IP of 93 ERA+ work & 175 innings of 126 ERA+, that meets the commonly accepted definition. Yes, I believe Jimmy took a step forward in 2017, but I also know he got hurt in & in a very unusual manner.

I said earlier in the thread I thought a "healthy" Nelson was capable of 25 starts, 140 innings & a 110 ERA+. I'm expecting the under on all three, but will gladly take the over should that come to pass.


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Online  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 11:27 AM Post
Posts: 10042
topper09er said:
MrTPlush said:
He struck out 10.2/9....that is pretty insane. That is about what Greinke did for us in 2011 and that was Greinke's career high. That was higher than Sheets and Gallardo EVER had.


I think this is a little misleading, without digging into it very much, it was a different group of hitters who have gradually cared less and less about striking out. The average K/9 in 2017 for the NL was 8.4. In 2011 it was 7.3. In 2004 it was 6.4. I would say Sheets posting a 10 K/9 in 2004 is much better than Nelson posting 10.2 in 2017


A little bigger change than I thought, but the point is Nelson went from very average K/9 numbers to elite numbers. He ranked #10 in K rate and the #8 pitcher overall according to Fangraphs. He went from nothing to something...not just something, but statistically he went from a #4 starter to being mentioned as good as Kershaw/DeGrom/Strasburg/etc. in a lot of ways.

That is an outlier. When you have to massive average (or worse) seasons and then decide to be a bonifide ace, how is that not an outlier? His stats backed it up, but regardless it is an outlier. Which will raise a lot of questions before one decides to blow their shoulder.


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