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Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
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82brewcrew82 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.

If I remember correctly, about a year ago, you were on the front lines of "We don't need to add a pitcher because Chase Anderson has been pitching like an ace for his last 200 innings bandwagon", no?


Actually, I think I was on the "Sign Cobb because he's the ace we need" bandwagon, so take that as you may LOL. But yeah, I had high hopes that the Chase we saw in 2017 was the real Chase. Chase wasn't horrible last year, but he was a far cry from what he did in 2017. He regressed to average. I have no qualms admitting I was wrong.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:00 PM Post
Posts: 1783
Anderson's fly-ball:homer rate was incredibly lucky in 2017. His uptick in velocity was mostly explained by nearly everyone getting an uptick in velocity because the technology for measuring velocity changed.

Nelson was always a much more talented pitcher than Anderson. However, 2017 was less than 30% of his career workload and roughly 2/3 of his career WAR. In terms of the amount of data there weighed against the amount of deviation from his norm, I think it's semantically fair to call it an outlier. However, the connotation with outliers is that you often consider throwing them out completely, and I don't think anyone is (or should be) suggesting that. It's the combination of that being a possible career year and him recovering from labral surgery that makes people really reluctant to project future performance based on 2017.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:00 PM Post
Posts: 1242
Actually last year statistically speaking Anderson was slightly above average which is all we really need from him this year. With the healthy Davies and our three young guns with Nelson joining the fray we don’t need Chase of 2017, Chase of 18 be OK.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:01 PM Post
Posts: 816
sveumrules said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.


Chase pre-2017 | 418 IP (96 ERA+)
Jimmy pre-2017 | 436 IP (93 ERA+)

Nelson actually had a slightly longer track record of mediocrity than Chase did prior to 2017.

Everyone's free to come up with their own definition of outlier, but when you have 436 IP of 93 ERA+ work & 175 innings of 126 ERA+, that meets the commonly accepted definition. Yes, I believe Jimmy took a step forward in 2017, but I also know he got hurt in & in a very unusual manner.

I said earlier in the thread I thought a "healthy" Nelson was capable of 25 starts, 140 innings & a 110 ERA+. I'm expecting the under on all three, but will gladly take the over should that come to pass.


The reason I view them differently is that the underlying difference in performance was much greater than what ERA would suggest. Chase had put up xFIP- of 99, 107, 115 before 2017, and put up an even 100 in 2017, followed by 118 in 2018. Jimmy in his 4 full seasons has put up 106, 104, 119 and then 73 (5th best among qualified starters). Or in other words Chase Anderson got much, much better results by not improving all that much. Jimmy got better results by improving a lot. Those K/BB numbers are truly elite (Very similar to Kershaw's career numbers), and only a .340 BABIP prevented his run prevention numbers from looking equally elite. One can argue about comparing different pitchers via xFIP, but it certainly serves as a useful internal comparison over a pitchers career; more Ks and fewer BBs are generally a sign that one is pitching better.

So yeah, I believe(d) a lot more in Jimmy's breakout than I do/did Chase. What remains to be seen of course is what effect the shoulder injury will have, but I believe that before it he had found something real and would almost certainly have outperformed Anderson going foward.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:14 PM Post
Posts: 816
coolhandluke121 said:
Anderson's fly-ball:homer rate was incredibly lucky in 2017. His uptick in velocity was mostly explained by nearly everyone getting an uptick in velocity because the technology for measuring velocity changed.


I don't disagree with the point about Anderson's ERA in 2017 not reflecting his actual performance, but his velocity did tick up. At some point relatively early on in the season there was an adjustment made that resulted in velocity being comparable to earlier data. So velocity gained/lost in 2017 can be treated the same as in any other year now.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:22 PM Post
Posts: 10431
coolhandluke121 said:
Anderson's fly-ball:homer rate was incredibly lucky in 2017.


Okay I don't think anyone expected Anderson to be a 2.75 ERA pitcher...I mean, duh. However, it wasn't really crazy to think he could be vastly improved. His career HR rate even taking out 2017 wasn't that insanely high (1.2ish before coming to Milwaukee). Not great, but certainly not a travesty. He saw an uptick in Ks, downtick in BBs, and a major downtick in hits allowed.

Surprisingly the lack of hits given up continued in 2018 which helped him keep solid numbers even with a major spike in HRs given up. What really helped him take a step back in 2018 was his K rate dropping and his walk rate rising back to career norms. Jimmy Nelson could certainly see the same where his K and BB numbers resort back to something more realistic for his career. I think Nelson would fare better even with regression....but point is he isn't any more safe than Anderson was.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:27 PM Post
Posts: 3149
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.

If I remember correctly, about a year ago, you were on the front lines of "We don't need to add a pitcher because Chase Anderson has been pitching like an ace for his last 200 innings bandwagon", no?


Actually, I think I was on the "Sign Cobb because he's the ace we need" bandwagon, so take that as you may LOL. But yeah, I had high hopes that the Chase we saw in 2017 was the real Chase. Chase wasn't horrible last year, but he was a far cry from what he did in 2017. He regressed to average. I have no qualms admitting I was wrong.

It's not about being right or wrong. Everyone of has been both but in the end it's just guesses. It may not have been you but my point was that there were people who thought Anderson was an Ace because of an uptick in performance and they had all the tangible reasons to point to. In fact, someone in this thread has already pointed out the uptick in velocity that was sighted last year. In the end it was a blip.

Nelson is in the same boat. We ALL hope he returns to form but there are legitimate reasons for being cautious. His injury is one and and only having one year at that level of success is another. I find that much more convincing than "He did it one year so that is who he is going forward". You all may be right.......or not.

The bullpen is not our weakness, that starting pitching is. Till it proves otherwise, on paper, it’s a pretty bad group.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:33 PM Post
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What you think of Nelson this season doesn't change the fact that 2017 is an outlier in his career so far. That is a simple fact, by itself it doesn't mean anything. What I personally said is usually when you have that big outlier season the next year you give a little of it back. To use 2017 as the example, out of the top 25 pitchers in ERA that season only 11 had good seasons in 2018. The year to year volatility of SP is just crazy. The good news is xFIP is a bit more stable and he was #5 in xFIP in 2017.

Most likely 2017 was sort of the top of his range, everything went well. You can't just expect that to repeat because most of the time it doesn't. Add in the injury and it really isn't fair to just expect it this season, there are going to be some obstacles on the comeback most likely.

It doesn't mean I don't believe he broke out, it doesn't mean he is going to turn into a pumpkin. It just isn't safe to assume he is an ace this season until he shows it.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:35 PM Post
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I think an outlier is defined by unexpected outcomes surrounded by the norm. If in 2018 he hadn't gotten hurt and then pitched like he did prior to 2017 then yes you can call 2017 an outlier. We don't know what it was because it could be that he figured something out and 2017 was going to be the norm going forward.

He certainly had good K numbers in the minors so that wasn't totally out of the blue. He had a high BABIP but his FIP and xFIP were better than his era. Obviously, could all fall apart but I think it's ok for people to be a little optimistic. If he fails then people get a little disappointed and move on with their lives.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:41 PM Post
Posts: 1242
Nelson and Anderson are not comparable. Nelson has/had way way way way better “stuff”.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:43 PM Post
Posts: 10431
homer said:
I think an outlier is defined by unexpected outcomes surrounded by the norm. If in 2018 he hadn't gotten hurt and then pitched like he did prior to 2017 then yes you can call 2017 an outlier. We don't know what it was because it could be that he figured something out and 2017 was going to be the norm going forward.


I don't think it needs to be unexpected and the definition of unexpected is open for interpretation too. Who expected Nelson to pitch like he did before 2017? Non one, not a singe person. So isn't that unexpected? Just because the outlier is the last data point doesn't matter. An outlier is an outlier.

In the somewhat limited amount of data we have 2017 was an outlier. Though more officially I would rather see a solid 5 seasons before labeling any thing an outlier in super official terms. But loosely, yah, it was kind of an outlier. People are getting to caught up in outlier=shouldn't have happened or can't again. When that isn't true and all they are trying to say is even before the injury repeating 2017 was a lofty expectation or largely unknown how possible that may be.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
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We have two and a half years of meh and one year of awesome. I hope he does awesome again. If he doesn't I'll be ok with it. I also understand people aren't as optimistic as me.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
Posts: 3149
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.

If I remember correctly, about a year ago, you were on the front lines of "We don't need to add a pitcher because Chase Anderson has been pitching like an ace for his last 200 innings bandwagon", no?


Actually, I think I was on the "Sign Cobb because he's the ace we need" bandwagon, so take that as you may LOL. But yeah, I had high hopes that the Chase we saw in 2017 was the real Chase. Chase wasn't horrible last year, but he was a far cry from what he did in 2017. He regressed to average. I have no qualms admitting I was wrong.

It's not about being right or wrong. Everyone of has been both but in the end it's just guesses. It may not have been you but my point was that there were people who thought Anderson was an Ace because of an uptick in performance and they had all the tangible reasons to point to. In fact, someone in this thread has already pointed out the uptick in velocity that was sighted last year. In the end it was a blip.

Nelson is in the same boat. We ALL hope he returns to form but there are legitimate reasons for being cautious. His injury is one and and only having one year at that level of success is another. I find that much more convincing than "He did it one year so that is who he is going forward". You all may be right.......or not.

The bullpen is not our weakness, that starting pitching is. Till it proves otherwise, on paper, it’s a pretty bad group.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Nelson and Anderson are not comparable. Nelson has/had way way way way better “stuff”.


If only "stuff" and results were always 100% compatible ...

This is what makes baseball great. We can all sit here in mid-March and try to predict outcomes, but no one really knows that's going to happen until the games are played. Yes, statistics and analysis can lead to some pretty educated guesses, but the games will tell the story. I think that we can all agree, though, that having an effective Jimmy Nelson, and even having an effective Chase Anderson, gives this team a much greater chance of success.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:51 PM Post
Posts: 3149
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Nelson and Anderson are not comparable. Nelson has/had way way way way better “stuff”.


If only "stuff" and results were always 100% compatible ...

This is what makes baseball great. We can all sit here in mid-March and try to predict outcomes, but no one really knows that's going to happen until the games are played. Yes, statistics and analysis can lead to some pretty educated guesses, but the games will tell the story. I think that we can all agree, though, that having an effective Jimmy Nelson, and even having an effective Chase Anderson, gives this team a much greater chance of success.

Well said.

The bullpen is not our weakness, that starting pitching is. Till it proves otherwise, on paper, it’s a pretty bad group.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 12:51 PM Post
Posts: 10431
Brew crew 92 said:
Nelson and Anderson are not comparable. Nelson has/had way way way way better “stuff”.


Yes they are. Why can one expect Anderson to regress...but not Nelson? Nelson can easily see his numbers regress a bunch just like Anderson saw his regress. Yes, there was some predictable regression for Anderson because of his HR/FB rate, but things like his K and BB were not predictable regressions. Better stuff doesn't make you less likely to regress, it just changes where you start/end. Anderson went from Very Good to Average. Nelson could go from Elite to Above Average. Same concept just a different scale.

Some guys just don't have the bite or control they had year to year. Sometimes one year just blatantly sticks out. It is no different than being a pumpkin one month and then Cy Young the next (which Nelson experienced in 2017).

You could pick just about any player you want that had a nice career and find a year that just sticks out from the rest (either notably worse or notably better).


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 1:56 PM Post
Posts: 8204
How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 2:19 PM Post
Posts: 1242
FVBrewerFan said:
How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.


Wily Peralta? Wow


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 8204
Brew crew 92 said:
FVBrewerFan said:
How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.


Wily Peralta? Wow


Exactly!


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Offline  Re: Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
Posted: March 14, 2019, 3:19 PM Post
Posts: 1242
Brew crew 92 said:
FVBrewerFan said:
How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.


Wily Peralta? Wow


Sorry, speechless for a bit. Now that I’ve had a chance to recover let me just say Nelson in 15 and 16 young pitcher with good stuff and no command. His mechanical adjustment made in early 17 improved his curveball and command of all his pitches, hence ace like pitcher all of 17 til injury. He figured it out, like ALL good pitchers eventually do. If Jimmy not injured I’d say 90+% 2018 season similar to 2017 season.


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