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NL Central Standings Predictions

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Online  NL Central Standings Predictions
#1

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:12 AM Post
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There has been on-going discussion specific to the current projected standings hosted at Fangraphs (thread link), but I thought we could take the discussion a slightly different direction.

Post your own predicted order of finish for the NL Central in this thread along with your predicted win totals for each team. I will leave the thread voting open until the end of February at which time I will average everyone’s predicted win totals for each team in order to come up with our own BF.net projected standings for the division. Feel free to include discussion of the projected standings as well, I will sift through and find everyone’s predictions.

Below is a template for how simple your vote can be listed. For your vote to count we just need the team names and predicted # of wins for each. This example template was done using Clay Davenport’s current projected standings (as of 1/26):

Voting Example

Cubs - 88
Brewers - 87
Cardinals - 86
Reds - 80
Pirates - 76


One reminder, each team in the NL Central has to play the other four teams in the division a total of 19 times each (76 total games within the division). I mention this since it would be difficult to end up with a scenario where there are 3+ teams at or above the 90 win mark unless you think other teams in the division are going to be very bad.

Lastly, feel free to edit your own predicted standings at any point over the next month, the voting portion of this thread will end at midnight on Friday, March 1st. I won’t collect the data before that point, so you will be able to make changes up until the deadline.


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#2

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:29 AM Post
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Brewers - 92
Cardinals - 89
Reds - 83
Cubs - 81
Pirates - 74

Gonna be a dogfight between the Cards and Brewers right up until the end. Reds and Cubs hang for awhile but the Cubs injury woes in their rotation are their Achilles Heel, and the Reds are going to be vastly overrated. Pirates continue to be the Pirates. Also, Steamer is a steaming pile of dung [wink]


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#3

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
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Brewers 90
Cubs 89
Cardinals 89
Reds 84
Pirates 72


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#4

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:56 AM Post
Posts: 11982
Brewers 92
Cardinals 90
Reds 88
Cubs 85
Pirates 73


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#5

Posted: January 29, 2019, 8:42 AM Post
Posts: 510
Brewers 86
Cardinals 86
Cubs 86
Pirates 81
Reds 81


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#6

Posted: January 29, 2019, 8:42 AM Post
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Location: Genova, Italia
Cubs 90
Brewers 88
Cardinals 87
Reds 80
Pirates 75


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#7

Posted: January 29, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
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Brewers 94
Cubs 91
Cardinals 82
Reds 77
Pirates 70

- - - - - - - - -
P.I.T.C.H. LEAGUE CHAMPION 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007, 2011 (finally won another one)


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#8

Posted: January 29, 2019, 8:47 AM Post
Posts: 1964
The division won 428 games last year. I assume that will be the floor for wins. This would be 428 wins.

Cubs 91
Cardinals 91
Brewers 90
Reds 80
Pirates 76


Last edited by Roderick on March 04, 2019, 7:42 AM, edited 3 times in total.

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#9

Posted: January 29, 2019, 9:10 AM Post
Posts: 4391
Brewers 94
Cardinals 90
Cubs 83
Reds 81
Pirates 73

Brewers have strengthened a weak position in C, and Hiura solidifies 2B by June 15. Cardinals will be second, with good improvements, but they'll fall short. Cubs have too many bad contracts, and I don't see Darvish/Quintana rebounding enough. Reds find DJ can only work so much magic given their pitching talent level. Pirates worst off, but will play spoiler.


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#10

Posted: January 29, 2019, 9:53 AM Post
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Brewers: 137
Cardinals: 86
Pirates: 79
Reds: 76
Cubs: 3

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#11

Posted: January 29, 2019, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 3677
Too early. I need to know where the rest of the free agents sign, first.

However: I do like Baldkin's response!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#12

Posted: January 29, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 4267
Brewers 93
Cardinals 88
Cubs 85
Reds 82
Pirates 74

The Cubs could still go out and win 100+ games if all their talent stays healthy and performs up to career norms/expectations, but recent history suggests they are just as likely to take a big step back in a more competitive division with an expensive but very questionable pitching staff - not to mention what appears to be some organizational friction building due to a combo of the Addison Russell situation, player/coaches relationships, and less than expected results following significant trades and FA signings that have thinned out their minor league system and apparently handcuffed their MLB payroll flexibility. If Bryant doesn't return to MVP-level form, they are in trouble.

The Cards and Reds probably made the biggest improvements from bringing in talent via trade/FA, but I feel like the Brewers actually have the most complete 40 man roster in the division, which IMO is more important than having the most talented 25 man MLB gameday roster with how the game is evolving.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#13

Posted: January 29, 2019, 10:11 AM Post
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Baldkin said:
Brewers: 137
Cardinals: 86
Pirates: 79
Reds: 76
Cubs: 3


Is this a joke? the Pirates winning 79 games?!?


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#14

Posted: January 29, 2019, 10:11 AM Post
Posts: 10828
Brewers 100
Cardinals 89
Cubs 84
Reds 80
Pirates 73

One of these days that Cubs pitching staff is going to take a big step backwards due to older guys disappointing and their record will reflect that.

I think this Brewers team is just as good as last year...and I think there will be big win-now mentality at the deadline if we look good. Big moves will be made. We will win 100 games. Maybe a little fandom, but I think they could field a 100 win team. We also have yet to trade any of that pitching we have. Serious starting rotation depth (and experienced) will play big when we have injuries.


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#15

Posted: January 29, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
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Location: Neenah
topper09er said:
Baldkin said:
Brewers: 137
Cardinals: 86
Pirates: 79
Reds: 76
Cubs: 3


Is this a joke? the Pirates winning 79 games?!?


[laughing] [laughing] [laughing]


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#16

Posted: January 29, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
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Did the Reds really improve by 10-15 wins? I doubt it. I'll give them 9 extra wins which might be generous.

Cubs 94
Brewers 93
Cardinals 87
Pirates 78
Reds 76


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#17

Posted: January 29, 2019, 2:15 PM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
I'm in agreement with a couple others on the Cubs pitching staff. Their bullpen is also notably getting older. This estimate also figures on Bryant coming back as a 4 or less WAR guy and not the 6-7 WAR guy he is when fully healthy. I'm also expecting the Pirates to start selling players if/when they start slow.

Brewers 94
Cardinals 88
Reds 87
Cubs 83
Pirates 68


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#18

Posted: January 29, 2019, 3:28 PM Post
Posts: 5
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)
Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)
Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#19

Posted: January 29, 2019, 3:47 PM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
Ricky_Bobby said:
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)
Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)
Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)


Who are these high yield trade chips?


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#20

Posted: January 29, 2019, 4:57 PM Post
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I'm predicting another Game 163!

Brewers 96 (+1)
Cardinals 96 (-1)
Reds 85
Cubs 82
Pirates 75


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