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NL Central Standings Predictions

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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#21

Posted: January 29, 2019, 4:57 PM Post
Posts: 2613
Ricky_Bobby said:
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)
Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)
Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)

Did the Cardinals not "know how to win" last year?


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#22

Posted: January 29, 2019, 6:14 PM Post
Posts: 56
Brewers 86
Cardinals 85
Cubs 84
Pirates 83
Reds 82


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#23

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:48 PM Post
Posts: 4229
Brewers 98
Cardinals 93
Cubs 90
Reds 82
Pirates 82

Hardest Division in Baseball. Too much talent on Brewers though with the bullpen to win close and come from behind games. Depending how Hiura fares and when called up could easily see this team going for 110wins.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#24

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:53 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Ricky_Bobby said:
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)
Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)
Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)


Who are these high yield trade chips?


I was wondering the same thing


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#25

Posted: January 29, 2019, 9:33 PM Post
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Roderick said:
The division won 428 games last year. I assume that will be the floor for wins. This would be 431 wins.

Cubs 92
Cardinals 92
Brewers 92
Reds 80
Pirates 75

I love the logic of looking at last year’s total division wins as a guide! The one admittedly anecdotal counterpoint I would make is that it seems like the National League on the whole will have slightly more competitive this season. Still, I think something near last year’s total wins is realistic.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#26

Posted: January 29, 2019, 9:35 PM Post
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Baldkin said:
Brewers: 137
Cardinals: 86
Pirates: 79
Reds: 76
Cubs: 3

Wow, that would be great!... but this might also be a good time to point out that extreme outliers likely won’t be counted in the final tabulation.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#27

Posted: January 29, 2019, 11:27 PM Post
Posts: 87
Cards 94
Cubs. 88
Brewers 86
Reds. 86
Pirates. 77

I expect big regression in the bullpen. Santana trade was a mistake. Jimmy just too big of a question mark. Starters in general lack ceiling, although they have decent floor. Braun gonna be tough to justify. 1st base doesn’t fill me with confidence. Loss of the pitching coach to division rival was another mistake. I’m just a nervous nelly I hope.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#28

Posted: January 30, 2019, 7:57 AM Post
Posts: 567
Brewers 95
Cubs 92
Cards 90
Pirates 81
Reds 79


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#29

Posted: January 30, 2019, 8:15 AM Post
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Ricky_Bobby said:
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing.)

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#30

Posted: January 30, 2019, 8:17 AM Post
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Clemente’s Dream said:
Cards 94
Cubs. 88
Brewers 86
Reds. 86
Pirates. 77

I expect big regression in the bullpen. Santana trade was a mistake. Jimmy just too big of a question mark. Starters in general lack ceiling, although they have decent floor. Braun gonna be tough to justify. 1st base doesn’t fill me with confidence. Loss of the pitching coach to division rival was another mistake. I’m just a nervous nelly I hope.


Wow I hope you're a nervous nelly too. I think your outlook is probably the absolute floor for this team.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#31

Posted: January 30, 2019, 9:20 AM Post
Posts: 43
Brewers 89
Cards 88
Cubs 87
Pirates 81
Reds 80


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#32

Posted: January 30, 2019, 9:27 AM Post
Posts: 4068
LouisEly said:
Ricky_Bobby said:
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing.)

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.


The Cubs' window ended in 2018. The only question is if 2019 will be bad enough to break any denial on their part. For the Crew's sake, I hope it is not. I think they're in the 80-85 win range - not enough to beat the Brewers, but decent enough that maybe Theo Epstein will spend more on free agents and try to make some deadline deals...


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#33

Posted: January 30, 2019, 11:50 AM Post
Posts: 89
clancyphile said:
LouisEly said:
Ricky_Bobby said:
Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)
Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing.)

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.


The Cubs' window ended in 2018. The only question is if 2019 will be bad enough to break any denial on their part.


I detest Chicago teams as much as any red-blooded Milwaukee-born ought to, but statements like this just make me laugh.

They tied us for the division a year ago. While I agree they’re not 100-win material, they ain’t going anywhere for a little while. The window is wide-open for both them, us and the Cardinals. And the Reds are at least in the same room as the window for the first time in a few years. The Pirates could be, but they’d rather live in a windowless, furnished apartment because it’s cheaper.


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#34

Posted: January 30, 2019, 12:46 PM Post
Posts: 4068
Bob Skube Snacks said:
clancyphile said:
LouisEly said:
So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.


The Cubs' window ended in 2018. The only question is if 2019 will be bad enough to break any denial on their part.


I detest Chicago teams as much as any red-blooded Milwaukee-born ought to, but statements like this just make me laugh.

They tied us for the division a year ago. While I agree they’re not 100-win material, they ain’t going anywhere for a little while. The window is wide-open for both them, us and the Cardinals. And the Reds are at least in the same room as the window for the first time in a few years. The Pirates could be, but they’d rather live in a windowless, furnished apartment because it’s cheaper.


Between age, injuries, a crappy farm system, and drama, I don't see the Cubs as any better, and likely to be a whole lot worse. Quintana is their best pitcher, and after that, it's pray the pitcher in question keeps it together.

I think the Cubs are an 80-85 win team. Worth respecting, but on the downward trajectory. They're too good to get the pieces they need to rebuild properly via the draft, and right now, too many of their pieces are overpriced and old.

I expect that by 2020, they will crater.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#35

Posted: January 30, 2019, 2:43 PM Post
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BF.net has been predicting the downfall of the Cubs for years. The Cubs improved their record in 2018 and they would have cruised to another division title if it wasn't for the uprising of the pesky Brewers. The Brewers have plenty of 30+ year old regression candidates as well and our starting rotation is a complete mystery. It's logical to knock wins off both the Brewers and Cubs in 2019 and it's not clear which team should lose more wins--as shown by the wide array of win predictions in this thread.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#36

Posted: January 30, 2019, 3:48 PM Post
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While still super early in the offseason to make predictions with any sense of comfort, I will go with:

Brewers 88
Cubs 88
Cardinals 87
Reds 80
Pirates 79

On paper, the Brewers are the same or maybe better than last season. However, I just see an absolutely brutal 76 divisional games, another bruising 25 games against the NL East contenders (Phillies, Braves, Nationals and Mets), 14 more against the NL West contenders (Dodgers and Rockies) and 4 games against the Astros. 119 games of what should be very competitive baseball.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#37

Posted: January 30, 2019, 6:07 PM Post
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I will likely alter these predictions when Spring Training starts since more of the free agents and trade targets will have landed with clubs, but this is where I would predict things currently:

Cubs - 91
Brewers - 88
Cardinals - 87
Reds - 82
Pirates - 77

As others have mentioned I think the National League on the whole is going to be tough sledding this season, and the Central is easily going to be the best division top to bottom.

If Kris Bryant proves fully recovered and healthy I think the Cubs are still likely the most talented offense from leadoff through the #8 hitter. The Brewers have definitely closed the gap and the Reds have a nice looking offense, but the Cubs are still a slight step above, IMO. I do think the pitching is where the Cubs could see the biggest swing in results. They have big question marks in both their rotation and bullpen. They could get nothing from Darvish and Hamels, or they could be borderline All-Stars.

I think Goldschmidt is going to absolutely rake in St. Louis this season and Jack Flaherty is on the verge of becoming a front of the rotation type arm. I think the Cardinals achilles heel is going to be their defense which brings me to one of my favorite photos...

Image

I actually think the Reds have pieced together a decent rotation, but could still use additions to their bullpen. Offensively they are going to be fun to watch (when they aren’t playing the Brewers).

The Pirates have some good arms in the rotation and the bullpen, but I am not confident in the Pirates to score runs this year.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#38

Posted: January 30, 2019, 9:25 PM Post
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owbc said:
BF.net has been predicting the downfall of the Cubs for years. The Cubs improved their record in 2018 and they would have cruised to another division title if it wasn't for the uprising of the pesky Brewers. The Brewers have plenty of 30+ year old regression candidates as well and our starting rotation is a complete mystery. It's logical to knock wins off both the Brewers and Cubs in 2019 and it's not clear which team should lose more wins--as shown by the wide array of win predictions in this thread.



No they haven't. I brought up the fact that I thought the Cubs were going to be a long term dynasty 3 years ago and mid season last year felt like they had made enough bad moves that their window was going to close in the next few years. Most people said I was crazy at the time. The Cubs looked like a team that was going to dominate the division for a good 10 years and now they look like they are in the running for the next few years. Almost nobody agreed with me mid season last year, that certainly isn't predicting the downfall for years.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#39

Posted: January 31, 2019, 8:07 AM Post
Posts: 3852
owbc said:
BF.net has been predicting the downfall of the Cubs for years. The Cubs improved their record in 2018 and they would have cruised to another division title if it wasn't for the uprising of the pesky Brewers. The Brewers have plenty of 30+ year old regression candidates as well and our starting rotation is a complete mystery. It's logical to knock wins off both the Brewers and Cubs in 2019 and it's not clear which team should lose more wins--as shown by the wide array of win predictions in this thread.


As Ennder pointed out, it's not like we've been saying they are going to crater back to where they were when theo and company took over (now that they are acting like a huge market team, a complete teardown is unlikely). It's simply that most of the moves they have made since winning the WS haven't improved their chances to win short term while drastically thinning out their organizational depth they developed over 4-5 painful years of building. Their trade for quintana cost them Jimenez and Cease, and it didn't move the needle on the mlb team nearly enough. They looked like a juggernaut for the next 5-7 years after their WS win, but most of their pitching moves since then have been bad and several of their young position players have been underwhelming compared to what they were projected to become.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#40

Posted: February 01, 2019, 7:38 AM Post
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So far ZiPS projections have been unveiled for two NL Central teams. Below are the ZiPS WAR projections by position for the Cardinals and Reds.


CARDINALS
Image



REDS
Image


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