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NL Central Standings Predictions

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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#41

Posted: February 01, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
Posts: 4215
Location: Madison, WI
While I generally agree with the notion that the Cubs have botched what should have been a basically dominant window here for a while. I also think they're being underrated in this thread overall for this season. Essentially I think they should be the clear favorite. Not in the sense of say how the Indians were in the AL Central last year or anything. The division is just too deep for that level of confidence. Just that I think it's obvious to me if you had to put all your money on one team right now from these teams they'd be the one you'd go with. That's not saying its a lock as all 3 could easily win.

But we seem to be forgetting we only tied them last year and they played great pretty much the whole second half as well. Yelich just went out of his mind for us. They're a really good deep team and Bryant should be back to his old self. There's a lot that could go wrong for them too just like everyone else. But I'm sure once the over/unders and odds come out they'll be the favorite. Before you say, yes I know that's not a pure indiciation because they factor betting in but it's still a good gauge.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on February 01, 2019, 3:38 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#42

Posted: February 01, 2019, 3:33 PM Post
Posts: 4267
1. I don't like the Cubs' organization depth beyond their 25 man roster compared to the Brewers or Cards

2. I also think there is more concern with their pitching staff than the Brewers and Cards - they may have more names but they are also older, more injury-riddled, and much more expensive

If you look at the division on paper and limit it to the expected 25 man opening day roster, then yes - the Cubs are probably still the favorite. But, if you expand the comparison to include teams' 40 man rosters and look at where individual players are in terms of their career arcs (particularly pitching), then aside from their payroll the Cubs are absolutely not the clear favorite for 2019. The Brewers won the division last year, meaning the Cubs tied the Brewers after 162 - they are a talented but flawed team that could win this division, but the Cubs aren't a team head and shoulders above the Brewers or Cardinals.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#43

Posted: February 01, 2019, 3:42 PM Post
Posts: 4215
Location: Madison, WI
Yup, that's what I was trying to avoid with what I said. Didn't want to make it sound 'head and shoulders' because clearly any could win. And you never know on luck, injuries, variance etc. It's nothing like a Cleveland in the Central type thing. They have issues just like all the others do too. Just that if one had to wager all their money and spoke honestly I don't know how you don't go with them. And I know it's Brewers board so should expect it that way but quick run through without counting it sure seemed they weren't being picked by many.

This division is so deep though it could get really weird and make all the teams neck and neck. Could be an interesting year.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#44

Posted: February 04, 2019, 7:00 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
So far ZiPS projections have been unveiled for two NL Central teams. Below are the ZiPS WAR projections by position for the Cardinals and Reds.


CARDINALS
Image



REDS
Image


PIRATES
Image


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#45

Posted: February 05, 2019, 5:22 PM Post
Posts: 1059
Location: Ohio
I spotted the Street & Smith's Baseball issue in the store today so I picked it up.

They predict places (not wins) & have the Brewers finishing 2nd & claiming a WC spot, behind St. Louis.
Unfortunately they predict the other WC (Washington) to win the 1 game and move onto play top seed Atlanta (losing there).

Atlanta over St. Louis (after beating LAD) in NLCS & losing to Houston in the WS.

They also predict Counsell to win NL Manager of the Year.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#46

Posted: February 05, 2019, 7:35 PM Post
Posts: 121
I think the difference is going to be the Cardinal starters and Ozuna having a big bounce back. Goldie is going to eat up this division and Bader will only get better. Plus I think they’ll be able move Martinez eventually to the American League for something that will solidify and balance their team. I think Zips has Reyes too low. Again I’m looking for a big bounce back. Buttttttttt....if he remains injury prone, here’s hoping, then the Crew or Cubs could step into the breach.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#47

Posted: February 05, 2019, 9:45 PM Post
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While I generally agree with the notion that the Cubs have botched what should have been a basically dominant window here for a while. I also think they're being underrated in this thread overall for this season


I do not believe they botched anything. They won a world series, were in the running for 3 more and are probably going to be in the running for the next 3. It isn't about botching it, it is just about the window being shorter than I expected. They also aren't underrated by most this season. That rotation has the potential to be really really bad. Lester's peripherals were awful last year, Quintana is now in his 5th straight year of decline, we have no clue what Darvish is going to do and Hamels has been in obvious decline. Sure maybe the good defense and overall experience leads to a decent rotation, it could happen, but it is just as likely that the Cubs have the 3rd or 4th best rotation in the division.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#48

Posted: February 07, 2019, 8:08 PM Post
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NL Central predictions according to PECOTA hosted on Baseball Prospectus...

Image


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#49

Posted: February 08, 2019, 6:37 AM Post
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Brewers ZiPS Projections are being released today at Fangraphs:

Image


As expected ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than STEAMER. Eventually they will be rolled into the Fangraphs depth charts and the Brewers projected win total on the site will improve.

EDIT: Here is the link, 2019 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#50

Posted: February 08, 2019, 7:07 AM Post
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Using the ZiPS graphics here are the projected WAR shown for each team in the NL Central (Cubs haven’t been released yet):

Cardinals (41.3 WAR)
Starters 12.9
Bullpen 4.2
Position Players 24.2

Brewers (39.4 WAR)
Starters 11.4
Bullpen 5.8
Position Players 22.2

Reds (37.4 WAR)
Starters 10.3
Bullpen 4.3
Position Players 22.8

Pirates (35.3 WAR)
Starters 11.3
Bullpen 4.7
Position Players 19.3

These projected WAR totals only take into account players shown on the ZiPS graphics above, so it doesn’t account for positional role players such as Ben Gamel and Eric Thames.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#51

Posted: February 08, 2019, 7:08 AM Post
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That would certainly be something if the NL Central was as competitive as PECOTA thinks it will be.


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Online  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#52

Posted: February 08, 2019, 12:38 PM Post
Posts: 552
Location: Washburn, WI
Cardinals: 94-68
Brewers: 92-70
Reds: 85-77
Cubs: 84-78
Pirates: 73-89


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#53

Posted: February 20, 2019, 5:54 PM Post
Posts: 1979
Brewers:97-65
Cards:87-75
Cubs:84-78
Reds:82-80
Pirates:77-85

First time poster. I feel like I’m sandbagging this great brewers team, but this year’s national league stronger than last years


Last edited by Brew crew 92 on March 06, 2019, 7:43 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#54

Posted: February 22, 2019, 5:39 AM Post
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After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

The new FanGraphs projections...

Brewers 87-75
Cardinals 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Pirates 79-83
Reds 79-83

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, or someone hacked their site.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#55

Posted: February 22, 2019, 6:55 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

The new FanGraphs projections...

Brewers 87-75
Cardinals 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Pirates 79-83
Reds 79-83

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, or someone hacked their site.


Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look?


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#56

Posted: February 22, 2019, 7:35 AM Post
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I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#57

Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:27 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Eye Black said:
After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

The new FanGraphs projections...

Brewers 87-75
Cardinals 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Pirates 79-83
Reds 79-83

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, or someone hacked their site.


Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look?


Well it has already changed back closer to what it was previously, so maybe the hacking theory wasn't so far off? I wish I would have taken a screenshot.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#58

Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Eye Black said:
After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

The new FanGraphs projections...

Brewers 87-75
Cardinals 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Pirates 79-83
Reds 79-83

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, or someone hacked their site.


Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look?


Well it has already changed back closer to what it was previously, so maybe the hacking theory wasn't so far off? I wish I would have taken a screenshot.


Yeah, I see that the Brewers are back to a 82-win projection. Did Yelich have a bad breakfast burrito or something this morning? Likely the more probable explanation is that Fangraphs is run by a Cub fan LOL


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#59

Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:35 AM Post
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turborickey said:
I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.


The fact that they change seemingly hourly at times for no legitimate reason certainly points to that. Although is was fun to see the mountains of Cub fans go nuts with the PECOTA projections came out.

Truth is, I know there is algorithms and a a lot of science that goes into determining these projections, but there is no way that they totally eliminate human bias.


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Offline  Re: NL Central Standings Predictions
#60

Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:38 AM Post
Posts: 913
I'd imagine that it showed either the combined ZiPS+Steamer, or ZiPS only for a while, and that what's currently there (Brewers with 82 wins) is Steamer but with Moose added. Or that they're doing some work on the depth chart / playing time side of things, which can obviously affect the team outcome for projections even while not changing any individual ones.


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