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To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress

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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#61

Posted: April 13, 2019, 9:22 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.


Thank you for providing data.


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Online  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#62

Posted: April 13, 2019, 10:09 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.


Velo the same every outing is concerning. Last year he didn’t have shoulder weakness. Lower velo wouldn’t be as concerning if he was getting AAA hitters out.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#63

Posted: April 13, 2019, 10:17 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.


Velo the same every outing is concerning. Last year he didn’t have shoulder weakness. Lower velo wouldn’t be as concerning if he was getting AAA hitters out.


He's literally throwing the same velocities he was in early April last year. He's low 90s, not mid 80s like he was in Spring Training. People much more informed on what is happening are making this decision. I suggest we trust them.

Edit: Also, pen is looking just fine. No need to overly stress out about JJ not hitting 98 on a minor league rehab assignment in April


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Online  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#64

Posted: April 13, 2019, 10:24 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.


Velo the same every outing is concerning. Last year he didn’t have shoulder weakness. Lower velo wouldn’t be as concerning if he was getting AAA hitters out.


People much more informed on what is happening are making this decision. I suggest we trust them.


Ok, you have a point there. As is he’s better than Barnes Petricka.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#65

Posted: April 14, 2019, 10:00 AM Post

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he's heading to milwaukee today.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#66

Posted: April 15, 2019, 9:31 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
90-91 means he’s not ok. Counsell said expect to see him in Milwaukee on this coming homestand?!?!



No it doesn't. It means he's trying to get his shoulder stronger and is rehabbing.


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Online  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#67

Posted: April 15, 2019, 9:48 PM Post
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It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#68

Posted: April 16, 2019, 1:10 AM Post
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Oxy said:
It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.



I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#69

Posted: April 16, 2019, 3:06 PM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
Oxy said:
It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.



I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.


If JJ is throwing in the lower 90's he's going get lit up in the majors. Pitching at the MLB level is not the place to see if you can make a living with diminished velocity.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#70

Posted: April 16, 2019, 3:07 PM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
Brew crew 92 said:
90-91 means he’s not ok. Counsell said expect to see him in Milwaukee on this coming homestand?!?!



No it doesn't. It means he's trying to get his shoulder stronger and is rehabbing.


Nope, that's exactly what it means. If they wanted him to take it easy and build his arm up he'd be in extended spring training.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#71

Posted: April 16, 2019, 3:12 PM Post
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502 to Right said:
OnTheBlack said:
Oxy said:
It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.



I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.


If JJ is throwing in the lower 90's he's going get lit up in the majors. Pitching at the MLB level is not the place to see if you can make a living with diminished velocity.


Perhaps you didn't see this data above, so I'll post it again: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx ... min=&ymax=

JJ is sitting pretty close to where he started the season last year. Perhaps we should hold off on the blanket assumptions until we see how he does.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#72

Posted: April 16, 2019, 9:50 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Perhaps you didn't see this data above, so I'll post it again: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx ... min=&ymax=

JJ is sitting pretty close to where he started the season last year. Perhaps we should hold off on the blanket assumptions until we see how he does.


That chart doesn't show him sitting 90-91 with his fastball early in the season. And he didn't start last season after being shut down due to a sore shoulder.

This is a disaster in the making. I hope CC has the sense to use him in low leverage situations so the Brewers don't actually lose games as a result of horrible pitching.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#73

Posted: April 16, 2019, 10:06 PM Post
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502 to Right said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Perhaps you didn't see this data above, so I'll post it again: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx ... min=&ymax=

JJ is sitting pretty close to where he started the season last year. Perhaps we should hold off on the blanket assumptions until we see how he does.


That chart doesn't show him sitting 90-91 with his fastball early in the season. And he didn't start last season after being shut down due to a sore shoulder.

This is a disaster in the making. I hope CC has the sense to use him in low leverage situations so the Brewers don't actually lose games as a result of horrible pitching.


Again, don't you think it may be prudent and appropriate to actually let him pitch in a major league game before you determine it a disaster? They guy hasn't even thrown a pitch yet, and the sky has already fallen? That is just a really, really bad hot take. I mean, every fan knows that your prediction is ultimately possible, but you make it sound like a foregone conclusion. Why even bother watching the games?


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#74

Posted: April 16, 2019, 11:23 PM Post
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502 to Right said:
Nope, that's exactly what it means. If they wanted him to take it easy and build his arm up he'd be in extended spring training.



I guess I don't have the same direct line to the Brewers brass or their players that you do, so I wouldn't presume to speak with any degree of certainty about why the Brewers are doing what the Brewers are doing. I do know that generally when players are rehabbing, they do so in the minors before coming back up to the big leagues. But...I can't speak with the certainty that you seem to be able to.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#75

Posted: April 16, 2019, 11:27 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Again, don't you think it may be prudent and appropriate to actually let him pitch in a major league game before you determine it a disaster? They guy hasn't even thrown a pitch yet, and the sky has already fallen? That is just a really, really bad hot take. I mean, every fan knows that your prediction is ultimately possible, but you make it sound like a foregone conclusion. Why even bother watching the games?



No, it makes far more sense to make definitive declarations now!

I'm not the biggest believer in Jeffress as it stands. I believe last year was a career year. And I don't like shoulder issues, but if all he had was fatigue, it makes perfect sense he went from 84 to the low 90's and when he's in an actual big league game again, his velocity may tick up.

The thing about Jeffress though, moreso than Knebel or some others, he's got that nasty circle change that can get guys out also.

I expect him to be about a 3 ER 9K/9 type pitcher if he's healthy. If the shoulder issue was really a shoulder impingement that turns into a shoulder surgery, then all of this talk becomes moot. But it's almost comical to make a declaration one way or the other before he actually...ya know...pitches.


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Online  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#76

Posted: April 17, 2019, 3:43 AM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
But it's almost comical to make a declaration one way or the other before he actually...ya know...pitches.


He has pitched. Poorly. Against weak competition, 3-7 MPH slower than his peak.

Perhaps it is all adrenaline with him and everything will be dandy in an MLB atmosphere. Apparently that's what the decision makers think, but it's hardly comical to be skeptical and want a few more innings in AAA where he actually...ya know...pitches decently before being brought up to The Show.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#77

Posted: April 17, 2019, 5:09 AM Post
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502 to Right said:
OnTheBlack said:
Oxy said:
It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.



I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.


If JJ is throwing in the lower 90's he's going get lit up in the majors. Pitching at the MLB level is not the place to see if you can make a living with diminished velocity.


You just ignored what I underlined in italics from poster above you. You're sadly mistaken on pitchers getting lit up in the low 90s. I'd probably venture that includes over half of all pitches in MLB with it's share below 90MPH. Davies for instance is getting it done right now below 90MPH.

Putting in games isn't like he's taking a spot of a stud right now at RP. I'd imagine you would be one of those chiming hard to get Kimbrel, simply because the BP needs help. You've gotta give the guy his chance before concluding what you are already predicting.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#78

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:38 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
You just ignored what I underlined in italics from poster above you. You're sadly mistaken on pitchers getting lit up in the low 90s. I'd probably venture that includes over half of all pitches in MLB with it's share below 90MPH. Davies for instance is getting it done right now below 90MPH.



I totally understand that pitchers can make a living throwing in the low 90's or high 80's. They are pitchers who have worked for years developing pitches that can be effective at that velocity. They usually have a plus changeup as well.

JJ is a velocity dependent pitcher suddenly being forced to work at a much lower velocity. He might well be able to develop pitches that work, but I wouldn't have him try it at the MLB level.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#79

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:41 PM Post
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502 to Right said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
You just ignored what I underlined in italics from poster above you. You're sadly mistaken on pitchers getting lit up in the low 90s. I'd probably venture that includes over half of all pitches in MLB with it's share below 90MPH. Davies for instance is getting it done right now below 90MPH.



I totally understand that pitchers can make a living throwing in the low 90's or high 80's. They are pitchers who have worked for years developing pitches that can be effective at that velocity. They usually have a plus changeup as well.

JJ is a velocity dependent pitcher suddenly being forced to work at a much lower velocity. He might well be able to develop pitches that work, but I wouldn't have him try it at the MLB level.


None of that can be substantiated until he actually, you know, pitches a game. This is kind of an odd hill to die on.


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Offline  Re: To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress
#80

Posted: April 17, 2019, 1:06 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
None of that can be substantiated until he actually, you know, pitches a game. This is kind of an odd hill to die on.


He already has. In AAA. He's been lit up like a Christmas tree. If you want to ignore the evidence go ahead.

I'm out of this discussion.


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