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The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official

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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#21

Posted: February 07, 2019, 2:56 PM Post
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Glad this is over, Now if only Mach-punko and Harper would get signed...


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#22

Posted: February 07, 2019, 3:24 PM Post
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Lathund said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
The package they got from the Brewers for Yelich is MUCH better than this


The Yelich package probably had twice as much value as this package, maybe more.


Well yeah, it was 5 years vs 2 years for players with not dissimilar production so twice as much value makes sense even if there are obviously other considerations in play too. But as a baseline it makes sense.


Alfaro is also probably being underrated by many. It's 5 years of team control for a catcher who has a 99 OPS+ (i.e far above average for a catcher) in his first 500 PAs,


Alfaro provides about 80-85% of the offense for league minimum. And he will likely get better.

Sanchez isn't a bad pickup... Stewart could really determine how this goes.


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Online  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#23

Posted: February 07, 2019, 4:55 PM Post
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The Marlins have done an impressive job of disassembling a roster with several homegrown impact offensive players (Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto) with the distinct possibility of receiving what ultimately turns out to be zero true impact talent in return.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#24

Posted: February 07, 2019, 4:58 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
The Marlins have done an impressive job of disassembling a roster with several homegrown impact offensive players (Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto) with the distinct possibility of receiving what ultimately turns out to be zero true impact talent in return.


yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#25

Posted: February 07, 2019, 5:04 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Eye Black said:
The Marlins have done an impressive job of disassembling a roster with several homegrown impact offensive players (Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto) with the distinct possibility of receiving what ultimately turns out to be zero true impact talent in return.


yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.


It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#26

Posted: February 07, 2019, 5:09 PM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
tmwiese55 said:
yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.


It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.


Short-term, finding pitchers would have helped on the margins, but long-term, they need to rebuild their farm, and get talent. The trades have some decent players coming to them. But high draft picks for the next 2-3 years will get more impact p;ayers in their system.

They have a long road.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#27

Posted: February 07, 2019, 5:09 PM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
tmwiese55 said:
yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.


It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.


Short-term, finding pitchers would have helped on the margins, but long-term, they need to rebuild their farm, and get talent. The trades have some decent players coming to them. But high draft picks for the next 2-3 years will get more impact p;ayers in their system.

They have a long road.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#28

Posted: February 07, 2019, 7:33 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
RollieTime said:
Looks like a pretty risky trade for the Marlins. Alfaro strikes out a TON, but does have legit power at the catching position. Stewart has a long way to go to make an impact at the MLB level. Sixto Sanchez is a nice get for the Marlins. Overall a decent trade, but I thought they could of done better.


Makes me wonder if the Brewers were ever engaged with the Marlins on Realmuto, pre-Grandal signing? I think I would have given up a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package and not looked back.


Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#29

Posted: February 07, 2019, 8:54 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
RollieTime said:
Looks like a pretty risky trade for the Marlins. Alfaro strikes out a TON, but does have legit power at the catching position. Stewart has a long way to go to make an impact at the MLB level. Sixto Sanchez is a nice get for the Marlins. Overall a decent trade, but I thought they could of done better.


Makes me wonder if the Brewers were ever engaged with the Marlins on Realmuto, pre-Grandal signing? I think I would have given up a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package and not looked back.


Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.


Ehh, I personally think Sanchez is pretty overrated on those lists, and he has only pitched in the lower levels of the minors. Peralta has shown that he can get major league hitters out. I think they are much closer in value than you do. I was just going position for position, too, rather than a straight comparison of prospect value. The closest Brewer equivalent to Alfaro is obviously Nottingham, although Alfaro does rate higher. Sanchez is tough because the Brewers don't have a good straight comparison. I went with Peralta because of his small stature and electric stuff. I think Ashby is the closest comparison to Stewart, although I personally think he's got a much higher upside. I think he rates higher than a role-player prospect. I just went low-level lefty for low-level lefty.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#30

Posted: February 07, 2019, 9:09 PM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
tmwiese55 said:
Eye Black said:
The Marlins have done an impressive job of disassembling a roster with several homegrown impact offensive players (Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto) with the distinct possibility of receiving what ultimately turns out to be zero true impact talent in return.


yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.


It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.


Both can be true.

If I'm a Marlins fan (one of 10, and I understand they've had a very tumultuous/bad relationship with owners so I'd be mad that they've done this to me again) - I'm glad they tore it down.

Bour played out of his mind, Stanton had his best year by far, Ozuna had his best year, Yelich was fine...

...and they won 77 games.

They were up to $115 million in payroll and, while the owner at the time may have been a crook, that is way higher of a payroll than they had ever had. They were going nowhere.

I'm someone that is OK with tanking but I do understand the reality that you have about a 50-60% chance of remaining in the dumpster for a decade...that said, they were going nowhere but 75 win land with that roster unless they made some drastic, lucky moves. Jose Fernandez's death had massive ripple effects.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#31

Posted: February 08, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
JosephC said:
Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.


Ehh, I personally think Sanchez is pretty overrated on those lists, and he has only pitched in the lower levels of the minors. Peralta has shown that he can get major league hitters out. I think they are much closer in value than you do. I was just going position for position, too, rather than a straight comparison of prospect value. The closest Brewer equivalent to Alfaro is obviously Nottingham, although Alfaro does rate higher. Sanchez is tough because the Brewers don't have a good straight comparison. I went with Peralta because of his small stature and electric stuff. I think Ashby is the closest comparison to Stewart, although I personally think he's got a much higher upside. I think he rates higher than a role-player prospect. I just went low-level lefty for low-level lefty.


I'm with Joey on this one. I'm most shocked by how much you undervalue Peralta of all players on the list. You're basically saying he's similar value to Ray, who is a couple spots outside top 100 lists. Peralta if eligible would probably be in the 30s or better on these lists. His value is probably pretty close to Sanchez, I like Peralta better but I can understand an argument either way. I also think you are underselling Ashby and Nottingham a bit and overselling Sanchez. I can't believe how high he's ranked considering his offspeed stuff is mediocre at best right now, I know scouts love his fastball and his command of it but that's really all he's got. Then you factor in his injury issues...no way should he be valued as the 20th best prospect in baseball.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#32

Posted: February 08, 2019, 10:17 AM Post
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I am not overselling Sanchez. Is he right around #20 on most top prospects lists? #13 at Baseball America, #27 at MLB Pipeline, #23 at Baseball Prospectus.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... nche000six

I think it would be you underselling Sanchez since you have ignored what is clearly the consensus opinion of the player.

And as for Peralta, if he was so dominant why did the Brewers take him out of the rotation? For every good number (3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9) there was another number that was just average or sub-par (4.25 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.6 BB/9). The last month he was a regular in the starting rotation was August and during that month he had a 5.81 ERA. That performance jumps him from ~#100 to about ~#30 on the top prospects list? I don't see it.

The reason I use all these prospect lists, WAR calculations, surplus value charts is to try to take my bias completely out of it.


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Online  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#33

Posted: February 08, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
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Through his age 19 season Peralta had thrown 113 innings, all in rookie ball, with 158 Ks & 47 BBs.

Through his age 19 season Sanchez has thrown 221 innings, most of them in A/A+, with 191 Ks & 43 BBs.

Sanchez blows Peralta out of the water in both age relative to level & command (to say nothing of his better scouting reports), which is likely why he has been a top 30 prospect six different times already while Peralta never cracked a single top 100.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#34

Posted: February 08, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
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JosephC said:
I am not overselling Sanchez. Is he right around #20 on most top prospects lists? #13 at Baseball America, #27 at MLB Pipeline, #23 at Baseball Prospectus.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... nche000six

I think it would be you underselling Sanchez since you have ignored what is clearly the consensus opinion of the player.

And as for Peralta, if he was so dominant why did the Brewers take him out of the rotation? For every good number (3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9) there was another number that was just average or sub-par (4.25 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.6 BB/9). The last month he was a regular in the starting rotation was August and during that month he had a 5.81 ERA. That performance jumps him from ~#100 to about ~#30 on the top prospects list? I don't see it.

The reason I use all these prospect lists, WAR calculations, surplus value charts is to try to take my bias completely out of it.


Those lists all assume the guy is healthy and he won't have yet another arm injury. I find it a bit ridiculous that guys currently undergoing TJ are getting listed in the upper teens. There's a ton of risk whether guys will come back from that and be the same pitcher. Sanchez has had both elbow and shoulder injuries already, he's an undersized RHP(like Peralta), his offspeed stuff is widely reported as mediocre...those are all pretty severe red flags. I just think the prospect guys are dreaming on Sanchez a bit too much, and they have a history of ignoring injuries completely when evaluating guys.

As for Peralta, they took him out of the rotation because he didn't have it at that time...same reason they took Chase out of the rotation. Peralta has shown flashes of being a star at the MLB level and is only 22. He's not a complete product, but there's enough to like and he's had enough success that his value has gone up tremendously since his time in the minors.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#35

Posted: February 08, 2019, 10:34 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Through his age 19 season Peralta had thrown 113 innings, all in rookie ball, with 158 Ks & 47 BBs.

Through his age 19 season Sanchez has thrown 221 innings, most of them in A/A+, with 191 Ks & 43 BBs.

Sanchez blows Peralta out of the water in both age relative to level & command (to say nothing of his better scouting reports), which is likely why he has been a top 30 prospect six different times already while Peralta never cracked a single top 100.


From what I've read on Sanchez, his offspeed stuff is way behind his fasball. It either barely gets mentioned or they just say "has plus potential". Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2. Hence, much more of a project. Considering his BB rate, it makes me wonder if he's even throwing his other stuff to work on/improve it or if he's just throwing fastballs and going for results. He's not going to be able to simply blow everyone away with heat when he reaches AA, heck his A+ numbers aren't even that impressive considering it's the FSL.


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Online  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#36

Posted: February 08, 2019, 10:37 AM Post
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The lists do not assume that guys are healthy, Sanchez is already getting knocked for his health concerns & still ranks that highly.

If he didn't have injury issues he would be in the untouchable tier.

Between ages 18/19 the guy put up 74 innings at A+ with 65 K, 20 BB & only 2 HR. It is extremely rare for pitchers that young to be so successful with such an advanced placement.

The last guy I could think of off the top of my head who was that advanced was Jose Fernandez & it looks like he put up 55 innings with 59 K, 17 BB & 0 HR in A+ at age 19.


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Online  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#37

Posted: February 08, 2019, 10:40 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2.


Usually at the point he's at guys are freshmen in college.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#38

Posted: February 08, 2019, 12:12 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2.


Usually at the point he's at guys are freshmen in college.


I understand many are going to disagree and that's fine, there's no right or wrong answer here. But on this point specifically...Sixto will be 21 in July. That's roughly the age that many college Juniors are drafted. Most high school arms projected in the top 3-4 rounds have a better offspeed offering than Sixto does currently, and any college arm drafted in the top 5 rounds will be miles ahead of him with offspeed offerings. Scouts basically see a projectable guy that can control a 97-100 mph fastball very well and are ignoring every other red flag.


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Online  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#39

Posted: February 08, 2019, 3:15 PM Post
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Right, 21 on July 29th, which means he'll be pitching most of the 2019 season as a 20 year old. By the time he's 21 he could already be in AAA when even the most advanced college draftees are still in A/A+ ball.

With regards to his secondaries, none of the reports I found paint as dire a portrait as you are...

"slider and change up that each project as plus or better." -BA

"his breaking balls were crisp, and his changeups were well-located and moving." -FanGraphs

"Slider: 45/50 Curveball: 55/60 Changeup: 50/60" -FanGraphs


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#40

Posted: February 08, 2019, 3:28 PM Post
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Sanchez is a very good prospect. There is no disputing that. I personally think he's ranked a little high, but I feel that way about any pitcher who has yet to see the upper minors. He has some red flags, too, including his small, thin stature and a history of injury. This will be a huge year for him, as he is slated for AA. He's a good "get" for the Marlins, but I'm sure their fans wanted a headliner that is closer to a sure thing. Sanchez has a high ceiling, but there are just enough red flags to make me think that it wouldn't be surprising if he never makes a dent in MLB.


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