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The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official

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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#41

Posted: February 09, 2019, 11:16 AM Post
Posts: 15724
It's a very solid return for Miami. It's true that Sanchez has some red flags, but as Sveum pointed out, he wouldn't have been available at all if he didn't.

We might like Peralta a lot, but I really doubt the Marlins saw him as remotely comparable to Sanchez. Corbin Burnes is probably far more comparable -- in terms of value, not necessarily comparable as pitchers.

Stewart is a prospect that Miami ranked higher than other Phillies' top 100 pitching prospects.

No, Sixto isn't a Robles caliber prospect and I personally value Hiura more than Sixto for sure, but there's certainly no "Miami waited and lost" moment here. Not at this point, anyway.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#42

Posted: February 13, 2019, 4:03 PM Post
Posts: 533
Location: Milwaukee
sveumrules said:
Through his age 19 season Peralta had thrown 113 innings, all in rookie ball, with 158 Ks & 47 BBs.

Through his age 19 season Sanchez has thrown 221 innings, most of them in A/A+, with 191 Ks & 43 BBs.

Sanchez blows Peralta out of the water in both age relative to level & command (to say nothing of his better scouting reports), which is likely why he has been a top 30 prospect six different times already while Peralta never cracked a single top 100.

First off, you can't say Sixto blows Peralta out of the water and doing so while comparing a 19yr old Peralta vs a 19yr old Sixto. The trade just happened therefore you *should be* comparing a 22yr old Peralta vs a 20yr old Sixto because that's what people are saying when creating similar returns. So lets do that. (and Peralta was #82 in someone's final mid-season Top 100 last year before being off it right away due to graduating).

Peralta
age 18/19 - Rookie ball
age 19/20 - A/A+
age 20/21 - A+/AA
age 21 - AAA/MLB (age 22 MLB)
age 22/23 - this season

Sixto
age 18/19 - A (18)/A+ (19)
age 19/20 - A+ (19)/injured (20)
age 20/21 - this season

Peralta gets screwed on bf with his age level because they list the entire season, last year for example, at age 22 when he was 21 the first 9wks of the season (42% of a minor league season) and Sixto, for example, is listed age 19 (turned 20 with 5.5wks remaining). Sixto is rated where he is for several reasons - the #1 reason is that he throws 97-100 with great control of the fastball. Peralta averages 91 yet his K9 is north of 11 almost everywhere and at the MLB level he flashed plus curve/change he just can't control it well at this point and maybe he only slightly improved that control or maybe his improvement is sizable. Sixto has a crazy low BB9 solely because he controls his fastball, which is by far the easiest pitch to control. You even posted listing Fangraphs rating his *current* secondary pitching grades of 45/50/55 then quoted BA saying what his pitches "project" to be, which is what KeithStone was eluding too saying his secondary pitches absolutely need work but everyone says plus potential...except potential/projection isn't where he's at *right now* so you literally proved his point. Also, he stated a college pitcher that's drafted is around the same age as where Sixto will be this year (21) and that those pitchers this draft will be miles ahead of him with their secondary pitches. That's also true. Go look at the college pitchers the last several drafts who are top picks, given Sixto is a Top 30 overall, and you'll see those guys have advanced secondary offerings already as opposed to being ok with great potential. It doesn't matter if they'll be in A+ with Sixto potentially in AAA (end of this year) because those college pitchers are going to roll through the minors quickly (ie Burnes was in MLB 2yrs after being drafted). Those fangraphs numbers are also evidence to the main reason his BB9 being what it is - his fastball and his control of it and not his secondary pitches.

Also, if he's throwing 97-100 with great control and already supposedly has great secondary offerings then why is his K9 in the low-8s in A and A+? Age per level is irrelevant here because it doesn't matter if a 19yr old or 28yr old is throwing these exact same pitches...batters don't see age they see pitches and he's not K'ing dudes while hitting triple digits like Hunter Greene is.

Sixto blowing Peralta out of the water is a far cry from reality. Peralta is a MLB pitcher, 22yrs old, has 6yrs cheap control and *far* less risk while Sixto sits in A+ coming off elbow/collarbone injuries. Their values are absolutely in the same ballpark *right now*. You can talk about Top 100 rankings all you want but only 1 of these dudes has produced at a high level at every level in the minors while already making a big impression at the MLB level (age 21/22) and it isn't Sixto.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#43

Posted: February 13, 2019, 4:14 PM Post
Posts: 533
Location: Milwaukee
adambr2 said:
It's a very solid return for Miami. It's true that Sanchez has some red flags, but as Sveum pointed out, he wouldn't have been available at all if he didn't.

We might like Peralta a lot, but I really doubt the Marlins saw him as remotely comparable to Sanchez. Corbin Burnes is probably far more comparable -- in terms of value, not necessarily comparable as pitchers.

Stewart is a prospect that Miami ranked higher than other Phillies' top 100 pitching prospects.

No, Sixto isn't a Robles caliber prospect and I personally value Hiura more than Sixto for sure, but there's certainly no "Miami waited and lost" moment here. Not at this point, anyway.

No doubt a solid return. But solid isn't what 95% of this site was saying the return would be. And neither of you dudes have any idea if Sixto would have been available or not if he didn't get injured last year because you also have no idea how good or poor he would have performed the rest of the season.

Burnes' value is absolutely higher than Sixto. Again, he already proved at the highest level he can be very good while already having a high ceiling with 6yrs cheap control at the same time Sixto is in A+ coming back from elbow injury.

Did Miami say they ranked Stewart higher than the other Philly Top 100s? I highly doubt it given he wasn't even ranked in their Top 30 and now he's 25 in Miami's system...rated 7 spots behind Yamamoto (the 4th piece in the Brinson deal). I find it impossible they wanted Stewart over Medina. They got Stewart as the 3rd piece because that's what Realmuto's value called for...a low level dude who has decent skills and might have a MLB career but it'll take several years to find out.


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#44

Posted: February 13, 2019, 4:39 PM Post
Posts: 15724
Humans Need Water said:
adambr2 said:
It's a very solid return for Miami. It's true that Sanchez has some red flags, but as Sveum pointed out, he wouldn't have been available at all if he didn't.

We might like Peralta a lot, but I really doubt the Marlins saw him as remotely comparable to Sanchez. Corbin Burnes is probably far more comparable -- in terms of value, not necessarily comparable as pitchers.

Stewart is a prospect that Miami ranked higher than other Phillies' top 100 pitching prospects.

No, Sixto isn't a Robles caliber prospect and I personally value Hiura more than Sixto for sure, but there's certainly no "Miami waited and lost" moment here. Not at this point, anyway.

No doubt a solid return. But solid isn't what 95% of this site was saying the return would be. And neither of you dudes have any idea if Sixto would have been available or not if he didn't get injured last year because you also have no idea how good or poor he would have performed the rest of the season.

Burnes' value is absolutely higher than Sixto. Again, he already proved at the highest level he can be very good while already having a high ceiling with 6yrs cheap control at the same time Sixto is in A+ coming back from elbow injury.

Did Miami say they ranked Stewart higher than the other Philly Top 100s? I highly doubt it given he wasn't even ranked in their Top 30 and now he's 25 in Miami's system...rated 7 spots behind Yamamoto (the 4th piece in the Brinson deal). I find it impossible they wanted Stewart over Medina. They got Stewart as the 3rd piece because that's what Realmuto's value called for...a low level dude who has decent skills and might have a MLB career but it'll take several years to find out.


Here's my reference to that point, last paragraph.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/ ... cenes.html


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#45

Posted: February 13, 2019, 4:45 PM Post
Posts: 4018
Location: New Berlin, WI
adambr2 said:
Here's my reference to that point, last paragraph.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/ ... cenes.html


I find this weird. I'm sure Rosenthal didn't make this up. I can understand liking a guy much more than industry, but it's weird to me that they liked him better than Medina and other options. Then again, it is Marlins front office...


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Offline  Re: The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official
#46

Posted: February 13, 2019, 5:32 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5594
Arbitrary prospect rankings are arbitrary.


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