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Is Baseball Prospectus a reliable website? Projects 2019 Brewers to finish first?

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Offline  Re: Is Baseball Prospectus a reliable website? Projects 2019 Brewers to finish first?
#21

Posted: February 11, 2019, 3:15 PM Post
Posts: 913
I'd love to hear some concrete arguments against the methodology behind the publcly available framing metrics. It's one thing to say that it feels like the effect are too big (Which I'm sure many of us felt when we first saw those numbers), but it needs more than that to dismiss. Batter, pitcher, umpire are taken into account. Breaking balls are compared to breaking balls, fastballs to fastballs. It both correlates well with scouts grading of receiving skills, and correlates well from season to season, so whatever it does measure, it measures so consistently. The methodology seems sound to me. I'm genuinely curious to see if I'm missing something obvious here.

Also something that's separate from how well we can measure framing ability, and which should be less controversial, is the average impact of a ball turning into a strike, regardless of whether it's due to the pitcher, catcher, batter or umpire. With the tens of thousands of pitches thrown each season you get really good data on it. On average, and I believe this not only takes into account the impact it has on each count but also how common each count is, the difference between each ball and strike is .14 runs. To take the example from earlier about how the best framers average 1 favourable call per game (I don't know where that stat comes from, but let's go with it as it was used as an example of how framing isn't as impactful), then 162*0.14 = 22.68 runs. And the worst framers, getting a similar amount of unfavourable calls, would make the difference between best and worst even larger than that.

An introduction to Baseball Prospectus CSAA can be found here.


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Offline  Re: Is Baseball Prospectus a reliable website? Projects 2019 Brewers to finish first?
#22

Posted: February 11, 2019, 4:06 PM Post
Posts: 3677
wallus said:
If the Cubs only won 82 games, it would be like Christmas everyday.


Or at least Christmas 80 times a year. Fly the L!!!!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Is Baseball Prospectus a reliable website? Projects 2019 Brewers to finish first?
#23

Posted: February 11, 2019, 4:42 PM Post
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Posts: 737
Oxy said:
I'm only poo-pooing on how definitive and precise the stat is-- not it's importance. If the stat actually measures what it says it measures, it is clearly very important. Whether it DOES that is a difficult question to answer.

I surmise that by the time it is definitive, there won't really even be umpires on the field making real-time calls. It will be kind of like tennis or golf. Balls and Strikes will be called immediately by a computer, and all other calls on the field are mostly obvious--i.e. players just play until there is a close call/dead ball and one team disputes it so they challenge and go to the eye in the sky.
Right now, field umpires at the MLB level are more likely to just get in the way and waste money than they are to actually contribute to calling a game.


I definitely could see that happening and hope it does. I'd love to see every ball and strike called accurately.


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Offline  Re: Is Baseball Prospectus a reliable website? Projects 2019 Brewers to finish first?
#24

Posted: February 13, 2019, 1:54 PM Post
Posts: 913
wallus said:
If the Cubs only won 82 games, it would be like Christmas everyday.


After an update to the projections, Cubs are now projected to finish last in the division with 80 wins. So what's even better than Christmas everyday?


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