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Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]

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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
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The Brewers went from the possibility of a Spangenberg / Perez platoon at 2B to having the best OPS at the position in MLB by .049 through early June.


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 7:45 AM Post
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NYChez said:
The Brewers went from the possibility of a Spangenberg / Perez platoon at 2B to having the best OPS at the position in MLB by .049 through early June.


And unfortunately they have the 22nd ranked OPS at 3rd base. I do see a way to rank very highly at both spots going forward though...


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 8:02 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
NYChez said:
The Brewers went from the possibility of a Spangenberg / Perez platoon at 2B to having the best OPS at the position in MLB by .049 through early June.


And unfortunately they have the 22nd ranked OPS at 3rd base. I do see a way to rank very highly at both spots going forward though...


Everybody sees a way to rank very highly at both spots going forward... [laughing]

I guess Super 2 gonna Super 2.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
NYChez said:
The Brewers went from the possibility of a Spangenberg / Perez platoon at 2B to having the best OPS at the position in MLB by .049 through early June.


And unfortunately they have the 22nd ranked OPS at 3rd base. I do see a way to rank very highly at both spots going forward though...


Me too ... continue to give your upper echelon 3B (the last two years) playing time until he gets it going. Face it people, they aren't going to give up on getting Travis Shaw right for a long time. He's too talented, and his last two years have been too productive to simply give up on him. If Hiura comes back up, they'll find room for everyone, but it isn't going to be at the expense of continuing to try to get Shaw right.


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 10:39 AM Post
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Brewers are 5th in the league in runs scored per game. They are fifth worst in runs against per game. Offense won't matter much if they can't get the pitching squared away.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 11:13 AM Post
Posts: 6523
Moose ops vs lefties is .837 through 58 games.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 11:52 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
NYChez said:
The Brewers went from the possibility of a Spangenberg / Perez platoon at 2B to having the best OPS at the position in MLB by .049 through early June.


And unfortunately they have the 22nd ranked OPS at 3rd base. I do see a way to rank very highly at both spots going forward though...


Me too ... continue to give your upper echelon 3B (the last two years) playing time until he gets it going. Face it people, they aren't going to give up on getting Travis Shaw right for a long time. He's too talented


Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 1:46 PM Post
Posts: 1513
adambr2 said:

Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.


Yes Shaw is that talented. He has an OPS over .800 3 out of the last 4 years and he plays good defense. We will need Travis to be good the rest of the year and in the future. He is very important to this team.


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 2:08 PM Post
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wallus said:
adambr2 said:

Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.


Yes Shaw is that talented. He has an OPS over .800 3 out of the last 4 years and he plays good defense. We will need Travis to be good the rest of the year and in the future. He is very important to this team.


The 3 most powerful forces in the universe are love, hatred, and regression to the mean. The question in baseball is, what is that mean? Shaw was a pretty ho-hum prospect for years. 7 years of professional baseball before 2017 did nothing to suggest Shaw is worthy of the performance equity people are giving him. He wouldn't be the first to bomb after a couple good years in his prime, and won't be the last. When in doubt, I trust the whole data set over the recency bias of 2017 and 2018. Incidentally, a similar force appears to be at work with Aguilar, and though I don't rail against him as much as I used to because anything can happen in baseball, it sure looks like regression to the mean wins again despite whatever magic pixie dust he had working for him in 2018.

I'll grant that Shaw also wouldn't be the first player to be consistently good in the majors despite being consistenly mediocre in the minors for many years, but that is much more rare than a few good fluke years in a player's prime. Even his MLB OPS isn't that special considering he plays home games at Miller Park. Right now he's looking like almost a dead ringer for Casey McGehee, and I hope and trust they won't do the same thing they did sticking with McGehee's sorry butt in 2011. He will and should be optioned when Hiura is out of the Super 2 zone unless he turns it around dramatically in this audition.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 2:32 PM Post
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wallus said:
adambr2 said:

Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.


Yes Shaw is that talented. He has an OPS over .800 3 out of the last 4 years and he plays good defense. We will need Travis to be good the rest of the year and in the future. He is very important to this team.


I understand he was very good the last couple years. That isn't the same as asking how talented he really is.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 2:34 PM Post
Posts: 6523
Bump!


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 4:20 PM Post
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Outperform his talent level? What does that even mean?

That’s like saying you got your car that maxes out at 140mph to go 180mph. I mean, it doesn’t make sense.

Clearly he was at that talent level and it wasn’t luck. Speaking of things Moustakas has an OPS of .924 and his career best was .835. I’m not saying he can’t just greatly improve overnight...but huge red flag and quite a bold strategy to give such a guy an extension when he is over 30. Guys usually don’t suddenly improve that much at 30/31 and keep it up every year after. There are examples...but risky to bet on that.

I have GREATLY enjoyed Moustakas this year...but some have started to call for a possible extension (mostly mentioned after the season)...but I’d pump the brakes on that...seems riskier than some may think.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 4:31 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Outperform his talent level? What does that even mean?

That’s like saying you got your car that maxes out at 140mph to go 180mph. I mean, it doesn’t make sense.

Clearly he was at that talent level and it wasn’t luck. Speaking of things Moustakas has an OPS of .924 and his career best was .835. I’m not saying he can’t just greatly improve overnight...but huge red flag and quite a bold strategy to give such a guy an extension when he is over 30. Guys usually don’t suddenly improve that much at 30/31 and keep it up every year after. There are examples...but risky to bet on that.

I have GREATLY enjoyed Moustakas this year...but some have started to call for a possible extension (mostly mentioned after the season)...but I’d pump the brakes on that...seems riskier than some may think.


I am sure you know exactly what is meant by it, it is not that complicated. Casey McGehee and Jesus Aguilar are two examples, but there are many guys with limited pedigree and limited success at the minor league level who go on to find surprisingly high levels of MLB success before regressing.

Now in Shaw's case, he was good at this level for a pretty good sample size. So you have to consider that, sure. I'm not advocating giving up on him. But there was always the thought among many the last two seasons that he was playing at a little higher level than was ever expected, and while he isn't THIS bad, I don't think it's impossible that he might regress to the level of an average MLB 3rd baseman rather than the well above average guy he has been the last 2 seasons. I hope not, of course, and I do agree an extension with Moustakas is probably best avoided unless it comes at very team friendly terms.


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 4:41 PM Post
Posts: 1949
An .835 OPS as an LHB at Kauffmann is pretty good. More importantly, he was above average there for years (so no fluke), broke into the majors much younger than Shaw, and was significantly better in the minor leagues despite generally being much younger at every stop.

The whole body of work for Shaw just isn't that great. He doesn't have nearly as long of a leash as some are assuming, nor should he.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 4:45 PM Post
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Shaw seems to get into occasional long streaks of ineptitude every couple years. He was in one in Boston which was part of why we got him. That is probably what he's going to always be. The real question to me is can we live with someone who sucks rocks for half a season for the production we get the rest of those two years?

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 5:21 PM Post
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adambr2 said:

Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.



He's got a pretty sweet swing and bat speed. I don't know, called it skilled and hard working if you want, but back to back 4 WAR seasons =very productive. And he was extremely productive for the Red Sox before they gave up on him too early and have lamented the move ever sense.

So it'd be foolish for the Brewers to do the very same thing after he's been so productive.

But, I guess the adjective is up to you. I think he's that talented.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 5:27 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Outperform his talent level? What does that even mean?

That’s like saying you got your car that maxes out at 140mph to go 180mph. I mean, it doesn’t make sense.

Clearly he was at that talent level and it wasn’t luck. Speaking of things Moustakas has an OPS of .924 and his career best was .835. I’m not saying he can’t just greatly improve overnight...but huge red flag and quite a bold strategy to give such a guy an extension when he is over 30. Guys usually don’t suddenly improve that much at 30/31 and keep it up every year after. There are examples...but risky to bet on that.

I have GREATLY enjoyed Moustakas this year...but some have started to call for a possible extension (mostly mentioned after the season)...but I’d pump the brakes on that...seems riskier than some may think.




Absolutely agree with you on Moose. He's having a career year, but we're talking about a guy who's been a .251/.307/.431 hitter with a .737 OPS for his career. It'd be great if he could keep doing this, but I think things level out for both of them. And one of them we control for the next 3 years, the other is a FA after this year.


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 5:31 PM Post
Posts: 3573
coolhandluke121 said:
An .835 OPS as an LHB at Kauffmann is pretty good. More importantly, he was above average there for years (so no fluke), broke into the majors much younger than Shaw, and was significantly better in the minor leagues despite generally being much younger at every stop.

The whole body of work for Shaw just isn't that great. He doesn't have nearly as long of a leash as some are assuming, nor should he.



We're talking about two guys who've got hundreds of regular season games(~1050 for Moose and 550 for Shaw). Why are we talking about minor leagues? That's got nothing to do with anything. Also, why are we breaking down Mouse to JUST his home OPS? If he was .835 at home and .737 overall, then he was boardline unplayable on the road, right? I haven't looked that deep because when you're talking about the sample size these two have, I don't think it's that important to break it down further than just the bottom lines(ie, home, road splits, minors). They've both got suffecient histories to form opinions.

Shaw's been the more productive offensive player in the shorter time. You want to mention mitigating factors, that's fare. But it's also worth pointing out that Shaw has two 4 WAR seasons(the last two), Mouse has just one back in 2015. I hope he has a second this year, but the point is, Shaw's still had a pretty impressive run.

And it certainly seems like he DOES have as long of a leash as some are assuming(though unless you're CC or DS it would be impossible to try to state factually one way or the other how long of a leash a player has).

I will say, I'm impressed by Mouse this year. And especially since he looks like he's carrying an extra 6-10 pounds [wink]


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Offline  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 7:56 PM Post
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If by some miracle Moose accepts the option go for it. However, I'm in camp pump the brakes for anything else. It's probably likely the Brewers just got the best season of his career for $10 million. Given his age, probably ceiling and price, he seems like a good candidate for a team needing to know when it already lucked out.


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Online  Re: Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]
Posted: June 09, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
Posts: 1513
Odds are good that Moose will not be back. Next year it will be Hiura's time.


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