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Brewers All IN!

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Online  Re: Brewers All IN!
#21

Posted: February 20, 2019, 8:51 AM Post
Posts: 11131
tigerbrew said:
I think Mark A should still has some chips left that he's not letting people know.



First off I think Attanasio is simply referring to the payroll. As we saw in 2012 they are willing to max out payroll or even take a loss if they feel they can win it all. The "all in" moves he is referring to is throwing big one year deals at Moose/Grandal. I don't think he is inferring we are going to unload big prospects this year...though it is very possible we end up doing so. I don't think this "all in" payroll mentality necessarily means anything long term at face value. These short term contracts only hurt profits this year and of course profits should be higher than average because of out success last year and then in the current year.

Now I have said in the past considering inflation and our new big TV deal incoming I think a good estimate of a realistic payroll is in the $130mil range. Of course I have no inside details to know what the TV deal will look like, but it should be a sizable bump. That being said it seems my estimate is pretty accurate as they now float around $120mil and have not surprisingly said they will add even more at the deadline if/when need be.

I am not sure how sustainable that $130mil number would be. The fact we are willing to go that high leads me to believe a sustainable payroll has to be at least $120mil as they can only voluntarily go overboard so much. While experts and Haudricourt like to scream we are out of payroll we will only know what our long term sustainable payroll is when we start dishing out extensions and/or FA contracts that really solidfy a high number multiple years down the road. Right now we have $28mil sunk into two guys on one year deals which doesn't really tell our long term story too much.


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#22

Posted: February 20, 2019, 9:01 AM Post
Posts: 4393
Location: Madison, WI
turborickey said:
I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.


Certainly a fair concern. However, I've been saying to people we shoudl expect a bit better from this year's starters than what we got last year. Should get a few more innings and better production. On paper as of now at least, who knows what happens in reality, just like last year with the injuries and Anderson regressing. Going in, you expected fairly stable results/innings from Anderson/Davies and frankly didn't get it. This year, adding back in Nelson, Burnes, healthy Davies, possibly improved Anderson (can't be much worse really?) it should really improve on what we put out last year. Key word, should. Basically, if they think Nelson is good to go I don't think they're crazy at all to think they're fine or at least better than last year at SP.


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#23

Posted: February 20, 2019, 9:04 AM Post
Posts: 3682
Mark does a pretty good job with Public Relations. He says the Brewers are really pushing the payroll, and I suppose we cannot do anything other than believe him (or doubt him), but the point being there is not any data available to the public in which we can accurately analyze what he is saying.

Despite the slightly "Wizard of Oz" type feeling to all of this ("pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"), I am certainly happy to hear that the owner is willing to add to payroll at the deadline. That could mean the likes of bringing someone like Bumgarner on board for the stretch run.

Another way of looking at this, is that he is signaling that we are done signing anyone, we're not signing Keuchel, but he is open to adding at the deadline. That could be a good thing or a bad thing, again we don't have access to the books. We are simply left having to accept the narrative that the Brewers don't have any more money to spend.

Hmmmmmm. OK

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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#24

Posted: February 20, 2019, 10:06 AM Post
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Posts: 3255
Location: California
OldSchoolSnapper said:
The weight of expectation could very well send this season spiraling downward. I don't think the feeling has ever been this optimistic going in, maybe camp of 2011.

The National League is going to be an absolute bloodbath. There are three tiers of legitimate playoff contenders this season and they encompass almost the entire league.

TIER #1: FAVORITE
NL WEST
-Dodgers

Likely to be the #1 seed simply because they are a cut above everyone else in their division and the other divisions have multiple competitors.

TIER #2: DIVISION CONTENDERS
NL CENTRAL
-Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals
NL EAST
-Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Braves

Would it really surprise you if any combination of these teams won their division?

TIER #3: POTENTIAL WILD CARD CONTENDERS
-Rockies, Padres, Reds, Pirates

Not including the Division Contenders, I could see any of the 4 teams above contending IF all things broke right for them.

The only teams I don't see having a shot this season are the Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins. I wouldn't be surprised if 88-90 wins gets you both the NL Central and East. The talent is spread relatively evenly. Going to be a fun 2019.


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#25

Posted: February 20, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
Posts: 34
turborickey said:
I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.


Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.


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#26

Posted: February 20, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
Posts: 4393
Location: Madison, WI
Warning Track Power said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
The weight of expectation could very well send this season spiraling downward. I don't think the feeling has ever been this optimistic going in, maybe camp of 2011.

The National League is going to be an absolute bloodbath. There are three tiers of legitimate playoff contenders this season and they encompass almost the entire league.

TIER #1: FAVORITE
NL WEST
-Dodgers

Likely to be the #1 seed simply because they are a cut above everyone else in their division and the other divisions have multiple competitors.

TIER #2: DIVISION CONTENDERS
NL CENTRAL
-Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals
NL EAST
-Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Braves

Would it really surprise you if any combination of these teams won their division?

TIER #3: POTENTIAL WILD CARD CONTENDERS
-Rockies, Padres, Reds, Pirates

Not including the Division Contenders, I could see any of the 4 teams above contending IF all things broke right for them.

The only teams I don't see having a shot this season are the Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins. I wouldn't be surprised if 88-90 wins gets you both the NL Central and East. The talent is spread relatively evenly. Going to be a fun 2019.


Yup, NL is gonna be crazy. Especially with SD adding Machado so they can be moved up a bit. Basically you only have one truly awful team in Miami. The rest are all at least ok. I saw throughout this collusion talk it mentioned about all this open tanking happening now and I just don't see it. It's one team in the NL. AL of course is worse with more bad teams and disparity but I don't recall ever having a whole league have only one bad team. Now I know other teams besides MIA will have a poor record because someone has to lose these games, but teams like AZ, SF, SD aren't awful teams. At least relative to most bottom 4 teams of a league over recent baseball history.


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#27

Posted: February 20, 2019, 10:37 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
If the Brewers get off to a good start, the season will be a fun one to follow. If they are sluggish, the schedule could bury them from the start. Can't wait to get started on it. We don't always have these opportunities in front of us. Fun stuff!


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#28

Posted: February 20, 2019, 11:31 AM Post
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Posts: 3333
OldSchoolSnapper said:
SRB said:
Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.


People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.


Did you watch the games? [laughing] We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.


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#29

Posted: February 20, 2019, 11:34 AM Post
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Posts: 3333
Vollbc74 said:
turborickey said:
I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.


Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.


Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.


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#30

Posted: February 20, 2019, 11:48 AM Post
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Posts: 3704
SRB said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
SRB said:
Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.


People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.


Did you watch the games? [laughing] We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.


I think everyone here watched the games, which is what makes the SP banter so played out and lame.

There is no evidence, not any, that he was gassed. In fact, the evidence is stronger that he was the luckiest good reliever the team had last year, and in the NLCS he gave up some weak hits that had been outs most of the year.

At some point the guy was going to give up hits. I really doubt he has a fixed energy tank that happened to hit E suddenly in October. It's baseball. It's so lazy to pin a couple games at the end on him and say he must have been tired.

Of course it is bullpen first, but that doesn't mean the lack of a top SP is why they couldn't beat LA. The series went 7 games for Pete's sake. This is simply a case of picking a scapegoat and seeing everything through the lens you want.


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#31

Posted: February 20, 2019, 11:49 AM Post
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Posts: 3704
SRB said:
Vollbc74 said:
turborickey said:
I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.


Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.


Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.


Not when the entire roster is built and managed to play that style of baseball. How are people still not able to grasp this? The Brewers are not going to have traditional stats from their SP. They're just not. That doesn't mean they have to go get some TOR ace.


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#32

Posted: February 20, 2019, 11:53 AM Post
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Posts: 755
OldSchoolSnapper said:
The Brewers are not going to have traditional stats from their SP. They're just not.


And nor should they. There are very few pitchers in the game who you are better off going a 3rd time through a batting order with than any other available arm.


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#33

Posted: February 20, 2019, 1:35 PM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
SRB said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
SRB said:
Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.


People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.


Did you watch the games? [laughing] We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.

Jeffress wasn't gassed. He last pitched in the regular season on Sept 29. His next game was Oct 4 giving up 2 ER (18 pitches). He then had 5 days off between series and there was a one day then 4 day window in the LAD series between throwing.

Jeffress had an neck injury he dealt with at the very end of the season, which is why he wasn't available for game 163.


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#34

Posted: February 20, 2019, 1:42 PM Post
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The Weatherman
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Posts: 5946
Other small market teams have increased their payroll to the $140-150 million range when contending and I have no doubt that the Brewers' final 2019 payroll will end up in that range as well.


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#35

Posted: February 20, 2019, 1:43 PM Post
Posts: 34
SRB said:
Vollbc74 said:
turborickey said:
I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.


Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.


Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.


Our SP last year accounted for 57% of our IP. The Dodgers SP accounted for 60% of their IP. Not a large difference considering our very different roster construction.

Also, I could see the Davies/Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff/Nelson accounting for more than 500 innings. They could all pitch 120 with safe arm management and log 600 total innings.


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#36

Posted: February 20, 2019, 1:46 PM Post
Posts: 4393
Location: Madison, WI
As much as I'm on the side that we can't play all year like Sept/Oct without it gassing the pan, and remember how burned out the pen was at the ASB after playing 20odd games in a row for example.

I'm also on the side that it wasn't a gassed pen that cost them that series. Heck, they went to the pen earlier than it had all year in those games and still held a very good LAD offense down. Didn't that gassed pen get them to a 1-1 game in 13 or 14 innings. Jeffress' issue was if that neck injury was lingering, but more likely just randomness and small sample size that can happen for all relievers. The offense scoring 1, 2, and 1 runs in 3 of the last 4 games is what ultimately did it. Win that extra inning game to go up 3-1 and it's basically over.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on February 20, 2019, 2:10 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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#37

Posted: February 20, 2019, 1:59 PM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
The Brewers starters are going to operate how they've always operated. We missed the playoffs by 1 game in 2017 and Nelson averaged 6 innings per start, Davies 5.2ip, Chase 5.2ip and Chacin the past 2yrs has averaged 5.2ip. These dudes are almost going 6 complete innings. If they pitch like they're capable of this won't change. Counsell literally said this last week. That he needs them to eat up innings.


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#38

Posted: February 20, 2019, 2:21 PM Post
Posts: 444
tmwiese55 said:
As much as I'm on the side that we can't play all year like Sept/Oct without it gassing the pan, and remember how burned out the pen was at the ASB after playing 20odd games in a row for example.

I'm also on the side that it wasn't a gassed pen that cost them that series. Heck, they went to the pen earlier than it had all year in those games and still held a very good LAD offense down. Didn't that gassed pen get them to a 1-1 game in 13 or 14 innings. Jeffress' issue was if that neck injury was lingering, but more likely just randomness and small sample size that can happen for all relievers. The offense scoring 1, 2, and 1 runs in 3 of the last 4 games is what ultimately did it. Win that extra inning game to go up 3-1 and it's basically over.


The bullpen uncharacteristically blowing game 2 is the one that sticks with me, I think it was Jeffress and Burnes. In a close series like that you can look at a lot of stuff, it sure felt like we had little hope once Puig hit that dinger in game 7, the offense was just in a funk at the worst time.

Agree about the bullpen being gassed before the AS break, really the schedule fell really well for keeping the bullpen fresh other than that stretch. We can't count on that to happen again.


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#39

Posted: February 20, 2019, 2:46 PM Post
Posts: 4393
Location: Madison, WI
Yup going up 2-0 would've been huge too. But blown saves and homers to great hitters like Turner happen in baseball. it doesn't automatically mean someone was gassed or anything managerial was done wrong, it's baseball variance and the other team is trying to beat you too. Hang a curve and he hits out but if he's a millimeter off it's a fly out to the wall. I think in that game Grandy hit the one to the wall at the end, fraction different trajectory and it's gone.

Thinking about I'd say the biggest risk of a heavy bullpen system is that you obviously use many guys and you never know when someone just 'might not have it that day' and the more guys you put out the more likely that could happen. However, math shows that still better than letting a starter go through 3 times. Big pic though in that series, the Pen pitched a ton of innings and gave up few runs.


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Offline  Re: Brewers All IN!
#40

Posted: February 20, 2019, 9:33 PM Post
Posts: 2333
Stearns & co has built a championship caliber team for this year. What
Separates this team from any other national league team including the dodgers is there depth. Best 40 man in league and it’s not even
Close! This team will overcome injuries because of it, And get stronger at the trade deadline. And like last year dominate sept with
Call-ups. This will be one of mlb’s super teams THIS year!
What Stearns has done in the last 41 months is simply astounding!


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