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Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?

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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 9:10 AM Post
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There is literally no way people are going to fill stadiums to watch AAAA players play. When an owner sells a team, another rich person steps in and buys it. When Max Scherzer retires, he's not getting replaced by some schmo in Scranton.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 10:11 AM Post
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homer said:
There is literally no way people are going to fill stadiums to watch AAAA players play. When an owner sells a team, another rich person steps in and buys it. When Max Scherzer retires, he's not getting replaced by some schmo in Scranton.


I absolutely would pay to watch Dwight Schrute pitch.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 11:17 AM Post
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JimH5 said:
turborickey said:
JimH5 said:
But the players are the product, and they are irreplaceable.


I disagree.

Players are 100% replaceable, but how many people can afford to own a team?

If a player opts to not play baseball because their salaries are not what they think they are worth, there will be 1000 guys willing to play for that embarrassing salary.


And fans rejected replacement players when the owners brought them in in 1995. As a group, they're not as good. Players in Independent leagues, the minor leagues, college, etc...nobody's paying $50 a seat to watch them.


I am not suggesting replacing the entire league with new players. I'm saying if a player is not happy with his salary (no matter who the player is, it can be Manny Machado or Hernan Perez) and he won't play for X amount of dollars, the next guy in line will play for his rejected salary. I am not talking about a wholesale replacement of every player in the league. Obviously, that will not work...


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
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homer said:
There is literally no way people are going to fill stadiums to watch AAAA players play. When an owner sells a team, another rich person steps in and buys it. When Max Scherzer retires, he's not getting replaced by some schmo in Scranton.


Right, but when Scherzer retires, their next best option will take his place. Could be a guy in their system, or a free agent. The league will not fold because one player retires or leaves.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 12:51 PM Post
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turborickey said:
homer said:
There is literally no way people are going to fill stadiums to watch AAAA players play. When an owner sells a team, another rich person steps in and buys it. When Max Scherzer retires, he's not getting replaced by some schmo in Scranton.


Right, but when Scherzer retires, their next best option will take his place. Could be a guy in their system, or a free agent. The league will not fold because one player retires or leaves.


The point is that Scherzer is a generational talent whose performance cannot simply be replaced by some random pitcher. The Nationals will lose more games when he retires and as such less people will show up to watch them. A league filled with random dudes is not going to be as good, exciting, fun as a league with guys like Scherzer, Betts, Yelich, Sale, etc. etc.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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turborickey said:
JimH5 said:
But the players are the product, and they are irreplaceable.


I disagree.

Players are 100% replaceable, but how many people can afford to own a team?

If a player opts to not play baseball because their salaries are not what they think they are worth, there will be 1000 guys willing to play for that embarrassing salary.


And there are 2200 billionaires worldwide who would all happily buy into a baseball team.

What's your point?

The owners are not some all knowing perfect beings who "allow" baseball to exist and graciously donate some of their wealth to the players.

They are the super-rich who run teams and try to maximize the money they pocket (with the lone exception in MLB of Mike Ilitch).

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 3:26 PM Post
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Players are not replaceable for MLB. The owners might be. BUT, MLB as entertainment IS replaceable to the general population. So, it's in the best interest of both sides to make nice and figure out the differences with their Monopoly money. The players stand to lose more. Again, when you have individuals being paid $30 million complain about how unfair things are that doesn't sit well with the general public. I mean, we're seeing guaranteed investments in individual players going north of a QUARTER BILLION dollars.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 5:07 PM Post
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I think the pool of people who are able to play baseball at a high level and the number of people who have the wealth AND interest necessary to own a Major League baseball team are both small. Both sides are trying to maximize their return on their investment, and given all of the circumstances unique to sports that will create a relationship which is somewhat more adversarial than a more typical employer/employee relationship. Add to that the fan aspect and you have "business" environment unlike most others.

The players, for all their natural ability, still work incredibly hard to do what they do, and they rightly want to be paid for it. Players have a pretty short window to make money, and an even smaller window to earn their maximum salary. Once that window closes, it won't ever re-open, so it is hard to begrudge them from making as much as the possibly can.

The owners, no matter how they made their money, are trying to both make lots of money and win on the field. Unlike a lot of other businesses, making lots of money does not necessarily mean winning or vice versa. As much as fans want owners to spend, profits be danged, they aren't playing with Monopoly money and they won't spend themselves out of a reasonable profit; these people didn't get wealthy (or stay wealthy) by spending beyond their means.

So what you are left with is a group of incredibly driven, elite athletes trying to maximize their earnings during the smallest of windows from a group of wealthy business people, who while trying to win, are also trying to make as much money as they can. Players need the owners because they are the only ones who can give them pay commiserate with their talent, and the owners need the players to bring in the revenue that make them money. The players know the owners need them, and the owners know the players need them, but occasionally they forget they need each other. And when that happens we have labor strife, at which time the players and owners realize the other side isn't really so bad after all, they hug it out and get back to playing baseball.

I suspect we are now in the "We don't need the other side" phase, which means we are really close to both sides figuring out they do, and a few years of peace in our lifetime is just a moment or two away.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 26, 2019, 7:52 PM Post
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I think the major areas that will change and this will avoid a strike are removing the super 2 status, removing the attached draft picks to players, salary floor and adding of the DH to the NL.

Removing the super 2 status will be a bone thrown at the younger players by the veterans. This seriously needs to go away and I think the owners will agree on this. There shouldn't be any delaying a player being put on the major league roster if that player is truly ready to be on the major league roster. I think this will be one of the bigger issues for the players union to satisfy its younger stars.

For the veterans the biggest issue for them is removing the compensation that is attached to free agents. MLB needs to get rid of this system and just replace it with either the franchise tag like in the NFL or just use a RFA and UFA. RFA would be the last year of arbitration for a player a team can either match an offer that comes in through free agency or let the player walk and receive a compensation pick after the 1st round of the draft.

For the salary floor the only way the small market teams will agree to this is if they receive more revenue sharing which I think can be done by setting up rules for the revenue sharing. Teams must be at or above the salary floor and for small market teams depending on how far above the salary floor will receive a higher percentage of the revenue sharing. For example if the Brewers are above 10% of the salary floor they will receive %5 more of the allocated shared revenue if you are only at the salary floor you will only receive your base revenue sharing and if you are below the salary floor and are a revenue sharing team you receive no revenue sharing.

The addition of the DH is obvious and helps the veteran players extend their career a little bit longer thus allowing them to increase their career salary.

I don't see a strike happening it may go all the way down to the last minute but I don't see a strike happening. The owners and the players will lose more than what they did during the last strike.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 27, 2019, 4:51 AM Post
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Regarding Super 2, I'm not so sure removing it is throwing them a bone. There are real issues with how teams manage service time related to it that needs to change, but removing it entirely means that the 22% of players with 2 years of service time who currently get 4 years of arbitration will now instead get three; and that 4th year arbitration can mean a lot of money. So it'll overall mean less money to players in their team control years. But yeah, overall the service time manipulation is something that needs to definitely be adressed. Hard to see any system that can't be abused in any way though, short of removing it which would require the entire system to be revamped.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 27, 2019, 7:05 AM Post
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nate82 said:
I think the major areas that will change and this will avoid a strike are removing the super 2 status, removing the attached draft picks to players, salary floor and adding of the DH to the NL.

Removing the super 2 status will be a bone thrown at the younger players by the veterans. This seriously needs to go away and I think the owners will agree on this. There shouldn't be any delaying a player being put on the major league roster if that player is truly ready to be on the major league roster. I think this will be one of the bigger issues for the players union to satisfy its younger stars.

For the veterans the biggest issue for them is removing the compensation that is attached to free agents. MLB needs to get rid of this system and just replace it with either the franchise tag like in the NFL or just use a RFA and UFA. RFA would be the last year of arbitration for a player a team can either match an offer that comes in through free agency or let the player walk and receive a compensation pick after the 1st round of the draft.

For the salary floor the only way the small market teams will agree to this is if they receive more revenue sharing which I think can be done by setting up rules for the revenue sharing. Teams must be at or above the salary floor and for small market teams depending on how far above the salary floor will receive a higher percentage of the revenue sharing. For example if the Brewers are above 10% of the salary floor they will receive %5 more of the allocated shared revenue if you are only at the salary floor you will only receive your base revenue sharing and if you are below the salary floor and are a revenue sharing team you receive no revenue sharing.

The addition of the DH is obvious and helps the veteran players extend their career a little bit longer thus allowing them to increase their career salary.

I don't see a strike happening it may go all the way down to the last minute but I don't see a strike happening. The owners and the players will lose more than what they did during the last strike.


I agree, MLB's compensation for losing a FA is an absolute joke because draft picks mean a heck of a lot less in baseball than in football or basketball. Forget the RFA and keep the last year of arby. Big market teams don't care about the draft pick because they can get a FA to fill any need. No small market team will consent to a salary floor unless it is set low. For every extra dollar in revenue sharing you give to a salary floor type team, a dollar has to get taken away from somebody. If you're going to give the Brewers 10% more, which team do you take the 10% from? What teams receive less even though they played by the rules? Depending on the amount of the salary floor, it could just further the huge discrepancy that already exists in revenue in MLB. You are assuming a DH on a small market team would be a high priced vet. Why wouldn't small market teams use the DH for some younger players? How about putting lesser paid young players in the field for defensive purposes and paying a DH a little more. Net gain, zero? Unless a team is ready to honestly compete there would be little sense to pay a high priced vet to DH.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 27, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
I agree, MLB's compensation for losing a FA is an absolute joke because draft picks mean a heck of a lot less in baseball than in football or basketball. Forget the RFA and keep the last year of arby. Big market teams don't care about the draft pick because they can get a FA to fill any need. No small market team will consent to a salary floor unless it is set low. For every extra dollar in revenue sharing you give to a salary floor type team, a dollar has to get taken away from somebody. If you're going to give the Brewers 10% more, which team do you take the 10% from? What teams receive less even though they played by the rules? Depending on the amount of the salary floor, it could just further the huge discrepancy that already exists in revenue in MLB. You are assuming a DH on a small market team would be a high priced vet. Why wouldn't small market teams use the DH for some younger players? How about putting lesser paid young players in the field for defensive purposes and paying a DH a little more. Net gain, zero? Unless a team is ready to honestly compete there would be little sense to pay a high priced vet to DH.


The data is there: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/positional/

DH's get paid more. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/positional/ ... ed-hitter/

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 27, 2019, 8:56 AM Post
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Lathund said:
Regarding Super 2, I'm not so sure removing it is throwing them a bone. There are real issues with how teams manage service time related to it that needs to change, but removing it entirely means that the 22% of players with 2 years of service time who currently get 4 years of arbitration will now instead get three; and that 4th year arbitration can mean a lot of money. So it'll overall mean less money to players in their team control years. But yeah, overall the service time manipulation is something that needs to definitely be adressed. Hard to see any system that can't be abused in any way though, short of removing it which would require the entire system to be revamped.


Yep, this IMO is the one real gripe the players should have. The service time manipulations have become ridiculous. And the fans lose. If a superstar prospect is ready to play, is it fair to a MLB fan to have to watch a C-level player for 2 months? I don't think Hiura would fall into this group because he hasn't had a single AAA at-bat yet. But if Hiura played at AAA all of last year and ripped it up, how disappointing would it have been to watch a Spangenberg/Perez combo for two months (pre-Moustakas signing), just because the Brewers were trying to screw Hiura out of some money?

I've outlined rules to eliminate many of the service time manipulations on page one and I think those are the types of things that the union should focus on. This, in effect, would shorten the window to free agency for many players and could be something the owners would agree to. I just think taking a "free agency after five years" or "four years of arbitration for all players" will just lead to dead ends with owners...and on those issues I would agree with the owners because it just hurts the small market teams too much to make those types of changes.


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Online  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 27, 2019, 9:09 PM Post
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How about this idea:

Players are granted Free Agency:

a) At the age of 28 after serving at least four full seasons in the majors (you could tweak the age - 28 is just an idea)
or
b) At the age of 30 - no matter how many years of service
or
c) After six full seasons (so basically how it is now). This allows guys who come up early to become FAs prior to age 28.

The team will control most players for at least four full years, and it gets a lot of players to free agency earlier. Also, it gets late bloomers to free agency at a point where they still have chance to score a decent contract.

Also, teams will have no incentive to keep a 23 year old player in the minors an extra month or two since he will be a FA in six years anyhow.

It doesn't really help the guys like Machado or Harper - who came up at age 19-20 - but that's okay. Those guys will be fine. The most they will have to play under their original team will be 6 years (but less than 7).

Just an idea. Pick it apart. Show me the downsides and upsides and sideways!


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Online  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 27, 2019, 9:15 PM Post
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I find the salary floor talk interesting. Mostly because I don’t think that does anything for the real problem. Which is players not getting money while young or while old.

I just doubt that fixes the struggle of FA contracts right now, but that is just me. In theory it gives the players more money , but is it going to get Moose a 3-4 year deal like he can’t get? No, probably not. That is what players are up in arms about these days.

I do like the hard cap age where you are automatically a free agent. I don’t know if I mentioned that, but I like it to allow late bloomers chance to get paid.


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Online  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: February 28, 2019, 6:21 PM Post
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1.)DH-national league
2.)1.25 million min salary

Gets non super two players extra 2.1 mil
DH will raise ave salary
Gets players % share of revenues closer to previous CBA
Leaving service time as is,along with luxury tax should appease owners


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: March 03, 2019, 8:06 PM Post
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I still think the best solution is to find out how much the players are currently receiving overall. For argument’s sake let’s say it’s 50% of total revenues. Give them, say, 10% more. I just don’t get why the salaries should be determined by the teams? Just because that’s the way it is everywhere else? Just let the players determine what each other should make. Let them establish the criteria, that seems more than fair. Let them determine value, they’re intelligent human beings. They have expert advisors. There’s no reason for the animosity between the two sides. This will let both sides know e xactly how much money there is and how much they’ll have for operational expenses, insurances, etc. The sides do not have to keep doing this to each other. Both sides need to man up, stop acting childishly, and start to help one another. Where there’s plenty of money to make sure everyone does well it’s better to cooperate than compete against each other. Let the competition on the field be the thing.


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Online  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: March 03, 2019, 10:53 PM Post
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Clemente’s Dream said:
I still think the best solution is to find out how much the players are currently receiving overall. For argument’s sake let’s say it’s 50% of total revenues. Give them, say, 10% more. I just don’t get why the salaries should be determined by the teams? Just because that’s the way it is everywhere else? Just let the players determine what each other should make. Let them establish the criteria, that seems more than fair. Let them determine value, they’re intelligent human beings. They have expert advisors. There’s no reason for the animosity between the two sides. This will let both sides know e xactly how much money there is and how much they’ll have for operational expenses, insurances, etc. The sides do not have to keep doing this to each other. Both sides need to man up, stop acting childishly, and start to help one another. Where there’s plenty of money to make sure everyone does well it’s better to cooperate than compete against each other. Let the competition on the field be the thing.

What the players get is actually available:

Baseball revenues were $10.3B last year. Players got 54.2% of this (this includes major league player salaries, benefits such as health care, playoff shares, and minor league salaries). This percentage has dropped in each of the last four years (the players' take was down 4% from 2017).

Salaries DID fall last year (by around $115M). That’s $3-4M per team.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown ... 1e13db39d7

I guess the big question for me is what is ‘revenue’? What does that mean? Ticket sales, TV and radio rights, food and beer sales, luxury boxes, parking, baseball cards, etc., etc. I honestly don’t know what it all entails.

But one thing it does NOT include was the $2.5+ billion the owners received for the sale of BamTech to Disney (the sale was done in two parts - $1B in 2015, and $1.58B last year). That netted each owner more than $85 million. None of that money was shared with the players. I am not saying it should have been - just stating what has happened.

And then there are things like regional sports networks? Aren’t there teams that own parts of these? How much do they make? I don’t really know, but I’ve read it can be a lot.

And what about sponsorships — like the new AmFam cash. Who gets that? When a bunch of new billboards go up in the ball park, who makes money from those deals. Are these things shared with the players? I really don’t know — and I'm guessing when people talk about all the money coming into baseball, that is the sort of thing they wonder about.

With all of it, I’m sure players are probably wondering what's happening to all the cash coming into the game. The money isn't coming to them - as salaries are down. Perhaps it goes to ball park improvement or whatever, but we just don't know. Players just know that each of the owners got cut a $50M check last year for the second part of BamTech - and salaries still went down.

I want to stress that I’m not saying these things need to be shared with the players, but we all see lots of money flowing into the game - money the players may or may not get a share of. (I will point out there is a flip side - as players get endorsement deals and personal appearance fees — I doubt they share that with the owners).

As some have noted - really the best way to understand everything is to have the owners open their books. But we know that won't happen. I don't think many people feels like the owners should lose money on owning a team - but what's a fair profit is another question.

Personally, I think a lot of the angst on the players part comes down to veterans getting squeezed out on jobs (which comes back to money). This is especially true of the average and fringe players. Teams are finding:

a) You can replace veterans (read: expensive) with younger players (read: cheaper) who can do as good - or almost as good - of a job. At least, that's the hope.
b) Teams gunning for the playoffs value veteran experience. With more teams willing to go into tank mode, that means there's less of a need your average and fringe veterans. This takes you back to the previous point. Teams not in contention will give young players a chance and pass on veterans.

This makes for less of a demand for veterans. This means these guys have for fewer jobs available, which translates to lower pay - and fewer years - when a player in on the open market. While much of this affects the lower and mid-tier players - it will cascade to the upper levels to some degree. A guy who might have gotten four years as a free agent now might only get three. And perhaps at a few million less than five years ago. This happens as teams fill positions with players who might not be as good - but are substantially cheaper - and void of longer commitments.

I realize that there are many other issues. But I think there's a big issue that the players see their friends and colleagues unable to get a gig that fits their skill and experience. This is new to them (and probably scary to many who know that time will come for them as well). And remember, these are their friends and buddies - guys they've been with for years at times.

And another important point - the guys getting squeezed out of jobs - the mid and lower tier players - well they make up a much larger segment of the player population than the superstars. The superstars are going to do fine in any system. It's the guys fighting for a job and/or security that makes up a big part of the players' union. These guys will be looking to find a way to protect their future -- so they will likely be more of the ones to agitate for a strike down the road.

Just my thoughts.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: March 04, 2019, 12:44 AM Post
Posts: 4262
My suggestion versus a salary floor. All teams must have at least two players who's combined salary is twice the previous season's QO rate. so, 18mil is 36mil. A team like Miami must have 2 players that add up to 36mil. Could just be Manny Machado at 30mil and some random who makes over 6mil that season. Maybe that is a rule for teams who get revenue sharing. And the teams that revenue share must put 3 of those players on a roster yearly. You base a QO on avg of top 75 right? So low 15=30players top 15=45 total 75. Make that work either signing FAs or giving high pay to prospects on early extensions paying them up front to reach that arbitrary "36mil" on at least 2 players.


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Offline  Re: Is a strike looming, or is this fake news?
Posted: March 04, 2019, 4:36 AM Post
Posts: 80
brewcrewdue80 said:
My suggestion versus a salary floor. All teams must have at least two players who's combined salary is twice the previous season's QO rate. so, 18mil is 36mil. A team like Miami must have 2 players that add up to 36mil. Could just be Manny Machado at 30mil and some random who makes over 6mil that season. Maybe that is a rule for teams who get revenue sharing. And the teams that revenue share must put 3 of those players on a roster yearly. You base a QO on avg of top 75 right? So low 15=30players top 15=45 total 75. Make that work either signing FAs or giving high pay to prospects on early extensions paying them up front to reach that arbitrary "36mil" on at least 2 players.


Why would the owners agree to anything like this? There never will be payroll minimums without a set maximum. Players are free to negotiate with any team for any amount they can get once they reach FA or are released. They are free to go to any league in the world who will pay their salary. If they don't believe they are getting what they deserve, they can hold out or move on. Teams should use the revenue to reduce ticket prices to gain more fans and up the pay for minor league players. When the fan base dwindles enough, advertising money will begin to dry up and TV revenue will decrease exponentially.


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