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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: June 30, 2019, 8:54 PM Post
Posts: 4268
June has been a slog for the Crew compared to what I think we were all hoping with the month's opponents, but honestly if I'm a cub fan I feel even worse about their current situation. 2 of their 5 starters on the dl, basically no starting pitching depth to draw from, Lester is scuffling of late...they actually need to lean on Darvish alot to get through the next 4-6 weeks in good shape.

At times they can still mash, but their pitching has taken a big hit over the last couple weeks. They've had decent success with a few youngsters they just brought in to shore up the pen, but let's see how they settle in once there's a decent amount of mlb scouting done on their approach.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: June 30, 2019, 8:58 PM Post
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I just like to think what DS must do to add to this team.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 1:03 AM Post
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I do kind of worry about the Cubs pitching situation. Mainly because if they are still scuffling but hanging in the race by the end of the month, I'm pretty sure that they will make some big moves this year so they don't get taken over by the Brewers (or Cardinals) for the second year in a row. The question is, what do they really have in the minors to deal for some stud pitchers?

Heck, do WE even have the goods to make such a deal work? Hmmmmmmm

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P.I.T.C.H. LEAGUE CHAMPION 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007, 2011 (finally won another one)


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 6:06 AM Post
Posts: 4268
pitchleague said:
I do kind of worry about the Cubs pitching situation. Mainly because if they are still scuffling but hanging in the race by the end of the month, I'm pretty sure that they will make some big moves this year so they don't get taken over by the Brewers (or Cardinals) for the second year in a row. The question is, what do they really have in the minors to deal for some stud pitchers?

Heck, do WE even have the goods to make such a deal work? Hmmmmmmm


The answers to both of your questions is yes - the trouble for both teams is if they get in bidding wars over a specific pitcher with another organization that has a deeper bench of well-regarded prospects. Then they're going to have to give up several from the top of their prospect lists to get a player they want, which would cause plenty of handwringing. With the NL as muddled as it appears to be past the Dodgers, I'm not sure if that is going to lead to a bunch of teams trying to outbid each other for specific trade targets, or if it could actually suppress the trade market a bit and have everyone sitting on their hands until the last minute and wind up with quite a few guys perceived to be on the trading block staying put. It'll be an interesting 5 weeks for sure, seeing that the waiver deadline is also now set up for 7/31.

Despite the overall pessimistic preseason rankings the Brewers' farm system received, it seems like there are actually quite a few Brewer prospects having solid years on both the pitching and position player fronts. Without a doubt there are also Brewer prospects having bad 2019's, too. The Brewers' organizational prospect strength is still A+ and below, but they also continue to have guys with lower talent ceilings develop to the point of being able to contribute at the MLB level - it's definitely not the focal point of a minor league system, but their AAA, AA, A+, and A affiliates have a combined record that is 38 games above 0.500.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 6:35 AM Post
Posts: 1987
Mid-Season power rankings:

1.) Dodgers > should win 105+, can someone steal the pennant from these guys?

2.) Braves > pitching not scary(yet) chemistry, great fundamentals, clutch hitting, great manager.

3.) Brewers > distant 3rd, but could be a dominant team again later in year, have $ And or prospects to improve big time at the deadline.

4.) Cubbies > really hate this team, fans, city, ballpark. But they still have a good team, but like last year crew has their number.

5.) Rockies > will improve at the deadline enough for the wild card, potentially, the worst team ever to finish the season playing at.

6.) Cardinals > Mo in trouble, trades and signings have been dreadful.

7.) Phillies > They will also improve at the deadline, but their manager will hold them back again.

8.) Reds > even though they sell Roark and Puig, Wood slides into rotation, this team could still surprise.

9.) D-Backs > to me, overachieving, but have pieces to sell.

10.) Padres > 3 years from Juggernaut.

11.) Nats > Dusty should be managing this team.

12.) Pirates > poor defense and big time sellers at the deadline or I’d have them higher with Hurdle.

13.) Mets > That’s what they deserve for hiring an agent as architect.

14.) Marlins > tremendous Organizational pitching depth will start to pay off at some point

15.) Giants > wow are they old and decrepit, Farhan has his work cut out, although having trillions of dollars at his disposal should help.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 6:43 AM Post
Posts: 636
Location: Wisconsin
Hendricks is coming off the DL so it’s just Hamels now.

Getting Kimbrel up to speed will have a positive cascading effect on their bullpen.

The Cubs offense is much better than the Brewers.

The Cubs have had a slog in June too, but they had a significantly tougher schedule. They aren’t unbeatable, but they have to be a big favorite over the Brewers, especially if Hamels isn’t out too long. If nothing else they have a big advantage in the head to head games because they can throw out those lefties to castrate the Brewers offense.

I wouldn’t rule out the Reds making a run at the top. They have a solid pitching staff and their offense could get a boost with Babe Gennett returning to the lineup. The Brewers are going to have their hands full getting even two wins from them this week.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 7:16 AM Post
Posts: 1987
BruisedCrew said:
Hendricks is coming off the DL so it’s just Hamels now.

Getting Kimbrel up to speed will have a positive cascading effect on their bullpen.

The Cubs offense is much better than the Brewers.

The Cubs have had a slog in June too, but they had a significantly tougher schedule. They aren’t unbeatable, but they have to be a big favorite over the Brewers, especially if Hamels isn’t out too long. If nothing else they have a big advantage in the head to head games because they can throw out those lefties to castrate the Brewers offense.

I wouldn’t rule out the Reds making a run at the top. They have a solid pitching staff and their offense could get a boost with Babe Gennett returning to the lineup. The Brewers are going to have their hands full getting even two wins from them this week.


Cubbies better offense > Yes. But the crew can improve theirs internally(Freitas Grisham Dubon) and at the deadline to match or exceed. And we have more $ and prospect capital to spend than they do at the deadline. Reds gonna be a problem > Yes. Imo a split should be welcomed.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 7:25 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 7:55 AM Post
Posts: 4268
BruisedCrew said:
Hendricks is coming off the DL so it’s just Hamels now.

Getting Kimbrel up to speed will have a positive cascading effect on their bullpen.

The Cubs offense is much better than the Brewers.

The Cubs have had a slog in June too, but they had a significantly tougher schedule. They aren’t unbeatable, but they have to be a big favorite over the Brewers, especially if Hamels isn’t out too long. If nothing else they have a big advantage in the head to head games because they can throw out those lefties to castrate the Brewers offense.

I wouldn’t rule out the Reds making a run at the top. They have a solid pitching staff and their offense could get a boost with Babe Gennett returning to the lineup. The Brewers are going to have their hands full getting even two wins from them this week.


I wouldn't rule out any of the NL Central clubs getting hot enough to win the division - there is very limited separation between 1st and last, and none of the teams are playing well enough to just win 22 of their next 30.

And BTW, the cubs' offense is just 0.008 OPS points better than the Brewers and has scored a grand total of 20 more runs than them. While I agree they are probably the better offensive club, it's not like they are overwhelmingly better.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
Posts: 636
Location: Wisconsin
JosephC said:
Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?


Just think how mediocre that would look if you took out what he did against the Brewers.

He needs another series with the Crew to recharge his batteries.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

Meanwhile two of the players they traded away for Goldy have thrived in Arizona. Each has produced nearly twice the value of Goldschmidt through the first half of the season. Prior to being injured Luke Weaver had a 3.03 ERA (3.09 FIP) over 62.1 inning and catcher Carson Kelly is currently carrying an .881 OPS (as a catcher!). It is certainly within the range of possibilities that Goldschmidt goes on a second half tear, but to this point that trade, and subsequent additional 5 year extension, aren't looking so great for the Cardinals.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 11:10 AM Post
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BruisedCrew said:
JosephC said:
Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?


Just think how mediocre that would look if you took out what he did against the Brewers.

He needs another series with the Crew to recharge his batteries.


Mediocre is one way to put it.

Here is his current slash line:

.246/.336/.405/.741

Take out his numbers against the Brewers and it's:

.219/.310/.326/.636

He has 30% of his total bases against Milwaukee.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 12:00 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
I said this when the Cardinals traded and then extended Goldschmidt. The Cardinals over paid both in money and years on that extension compared to what he would have received in FA.

The Cardinals are going to regret this signing.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 1:35 PM Post
Posts: 636
Location: Wisconsin
It probably also irks Cardinals fans to see Luke Voit thriving at first base for the Yankees.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 01, 2019, 2:45 PM Post
Posts: 414
homer said:
BruisedCrew said:
JosephC said:
Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?


Just think how mediocre that would look if you took out what he did against the Brewers.

He needs another series with the Crew to recharge his batteries.


Mediocre is one way to put it.

Here is his current slash line:

.246/.336/.405/.741

Take out his numbers against the Brewers and it's:

.219/.310/.326/.636

He has 30% of his total bases against Milwaukee.


crissakes. Didn't Wong destroy us too. I wonder what his numbers are without playing us


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 04, 2019, 2:55 PM Post
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As the Brewers sit in a Fourth of July rain delay I thought I would take a look at how many wins each NL Central team is currently on pace for right now (not counting the Brewers game as a loss just yet)...

Brewers - 85.7 wins
Cubs - 83.7 wins
Cardinals - 81 wins
Pirates - 80 wins
Reds - 77.1 wins

Here is a link to our preseason NL Central Standings Prediction thread.


The poster named ougiqbxy predicted the following in post #22 and may be in the running to win the pot...

ougiqbxy said:
Brewers 86
Cardinals 85
Cubs 84
Pirates 83
Reds 82


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 04, 2019, 5:51 PM Post
Posts: 17380
We are 4 games over. 500. At this time last season we were 18 games over. Yeesh.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 05, 2019, 9:53 AM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
We knew heading into the season that the NL was going to be tough. Literally every team besides the Marlins made moves that indicated they were seemingly trying to contend. Even the Giants, Dbacks, Mets, Reds, etc all improved their teams. It really shouldn't be THAT surprising that so many NL teams are still in it. This isn't like the AL where you pretty much had 5 teams with around 80% chance to make the postseason and a maybe 2 dark horse teams trying to be good...with the other 8 teams rebuilding.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 9:41 AM Post
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Brewers Playoff Odds At The Break...

FG: 38%
538: 39%
BRef: 38%


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 10:28 AM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP.

Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots.

Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.


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