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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
Posts: 4268
KeithStone53151 said:
Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP.

Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots.

Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.


June was supposed to be the softest portion of their schedule, and they missed a golden opportunity to take control of this division by playing their worst baseball so far in 2019. While none of the team stats you listed are godawful atrocious, all of them point to middling/below average results - they really didn't have any aspect of their team performing consistently well enough to lean on for sustained success, and that showed in a meh month recordwise against teams they would have beaten up on if they were playing better.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 10:42 AM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
Fear The Chorizo said:
June was supposed to be the softest portion of their schedule, and they missed a golden opportunity to take control of this division by playing their worst baseball so far in 2019. While none of the team stats you listed are godawful atrocious, all of them point to middling/below average results - they really didn't have any aspect of their team performing consistently well enough to lean on for sustained success, and that showed in a meh month recordwise against teams they would have beaten up on if they were playing better.


I think you missed the whole point of my post. We scored 118 runs while the Padres for example were 3rd in the NL with 153 runs. Meanwhile we had a higher BB rate, lower k rate, 7% lower soft contact rate, and 10% higher hard contact rate. In what universe should the team on the wrong side of all those advanced metrics score 37 less runs? Well they had a .318 BABIP while we had .286 BABIP. They had a lot of bloop junk fall in while we had more line drives not fall in. Eventually that stuff evens out, and their soft contact turns into easy outs while our hard contact goes over the fence and plugs gaps. The entire point of my post above was pointing out that this team got really unlucky in June and the sky is not falling.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 1:52 PM Post
Posts: 636
Location: Wisconsin
Losing so many games against teams with losing records is bad baseball not bad luck.

Anyone who has watched the Brewers play knows they have played poorly for the better part of 6 weeks.

Advanced stats showing that the Brewers may have been closer to mediocre than terrible isn’t much consolation for a team that is supposed to be a playoff contender.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 4:54 PM Post
Posts: 3400
KeithStone53151 said:
Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP.

Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots.

Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.

This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 5:51 PM Post
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82brewcrew82 said:
This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.


A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 08, 2019, 7:48 PM Post
Posts: 3400
owbc said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.


A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

Fair enough. I don't entirely agree but fair enough.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 09, 2019, 6:47 AM Post
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owbc said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.


A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

Even the single Wild Card era occasionally produced mediocre teams that had things break right for them. The two mediocre teams of that era that I remember best are the 2006 Cardinals and the 2007 Rockies.

The 2006 Cardinals finished the regular season 83–78. It’s the second-worst record ever for a league champion and the worst record ever for a World Series champion. Of course it had to be the Cardinals who won a World Series with an 83 win team.

The 2007 Rockies were 76-72 on September 16th and went on a crazy hot streak the last two weeks of the season and then won a one game playoff to get in as the Wild Card. They ultimately got swept in the World Series, but the fact they made it that far after producing pedestrian results for the majority of the season was an incredible story.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:30 AM Post
Posts: 1987
Eye Black said:
owbc said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.


A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

Even the single Wild Card era occasionally produced mediocre teams that had things break right for them. The two mediocre teams of that era that I remember best are the 2006 Cardinals and the 2007 Rockies.

The 2006 Cardinals finished the regular season 83–78. It’s the second-worst record ever for a league champion and the worst record ever for a World Series champion. Of course it had to be the Cardinals who won a World Series with an 83 win team.

The 2007 Rockies were 76-72 on September 16th and went on a crazy hot streak the last two weeks of the season and then won a one game playoff to get in as the Wild Card. They ultimately got swept in the World Series, but the fact they made it that far after producing pedestrian results for the majority of the season was an incredible story.


Yes, talk about momentum, winning 13 of their last 14 games just to force a one game play-in game vs the Padres, Who the Brewers had beaten the previous day in a come from behind win, just to get the Rockies that game. The Rockies walked off the Padres 9-8 with Matt Holliday scoring the game-winning run. They then swept the Phillies in 3, the DBacks in 4, and when the dust had settled, 21 wins 1 loss. They were talent wise inferior to the teams they beat, but their manager, Clint Hurdle, imo, did one of, if not the best motivational, managing jobs of all time. But unfortunately had to wait a ridiculously long time, I think 7 or 8 days to play again, and with all their momentum gone got swept by the better team, the Red Sox.

What’s the old baseball saying? Momentum is only as good as the next days starting pitcher? I believe the Rockies of 07 blew that out of the water.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 09, 2019, 10:19 AM Post
Posts: 4217
Location: Madison, WI
I also don't think his take in this discussion right now was really bad at all. We're a barely .500 team that has had it's pitching staff get blasted all year. Seems pretty mediocre to me.

Doesn't mean they should give up. Cubs have left the door wide open. We have huge areas we could improve, do it and get hot at the right time and anything can happen. Just slightly better mediocrity from the SP and adding two BP arms in trades would make a mountain of difference.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 6:15 AM Post
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At the All Star break...

The entire NL Central is separate from top-to-bottom by just 4.5 games.

In the other 5 divisions across MLB there isn’t a single second place team that is within 5 games of their division lead.

Here is how far behind the SECOND PLACE teams are in the other divisions...

AL Central - Indians (5.5 GB)

NL East - Nationals (6.0 GB)

AL East - Rays (6.5 GB)

AL West - A’s (7.5 GB)

NL West - Diamondbacks (13.5 GB)


I don’t know how I didn’t notice it earlier, but the entire NL Central is closer to the division lead than any of the other second place teams in baseball. That seems wild.

I think fans of NL Central teams are in for a competitive and stressful last 2.5 months to the season. [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 6:56 AM Post
Posts: 10833
2011 team wasn’t anything special until the last two months. Probably really similar record wise at this venture of the season.

Despite discussions around here making it seem we are 10 games under and in last place we are actually half a game out of first place.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 7:44 AM Post
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FWIW the odds makers put the Brewers chances at a World Series win at 22:1. The only NL teams with better odds were the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs. The Nationals were right behind the Brewers at 23:1.

You can conclude the bookies in Vegas believe it’s most likely the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs win their Divisions and the Brewers and Nationals make the playoffs as Wild Cards.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:24 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
2011 team wasn’t anything special until the last two months. Probably really similar record wise at this venture of the season.

Despite discussions around here making it seem we are 10 games under and in last place we are actually half a game out of first place.


2011 at the ASB, the team was 49-43. They lost their first two after the break, then proceeded to go 36-12 over their next 48 games, to bring the record to 85-57.

I wouldn't mind a run like that this year [smile]

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:45 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
People think the Brewers are mediocre because they look at the teams record without any context. We play in the toughest division in baseball where 5 teams are beating up on each other. The Reds are in last place with 41 wins and their win % is better than 8 teams in MLB (that's almost 2 full divisions worth of teams). This team isn't close to mediocre.

Looking at something on the surface and believing that's reality is what this site does and this is another prime example of that.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:52 AM Post
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Wahoo Maniac said:
People think the Brewers are mediocre because they look at the teams record without any context. We play in the toughest division in baseball where 5 teams are beating up on each other. The Reds are in last place with 41 wins and their win % is better than 8 teams in MLB (that's almost 2 full divisions worth of teams). This team isn't close to mediocre.

Looking at something on the surface and believing that's reality is what this site does and this is another prime example of that.


I agree with you fully, but I think your point could have been easily made without including that last little bit that seemingly was only included in an attempt to rile up other posters.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on July 11, 2019, 10:42 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:59 AM Post
Posts: 4217
Location: Madison, WI
I guess to me that's kind of the definition of mediocre/ok.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 11, 2019, 10:34 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
You can conclude the bookies in Vegas believe it’s most likely the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs win their Divisions and the Brewers and Nationals make the playoffs as Wild Cards.


No you can't because that's not how odds are set.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 14, 2019, 8:11 AM Post
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Guessing this has close to zero predictive value, but I went through all the NLCS teams in the two Wild Card era then noted how they each fared in the following season.

With a sample 12 total NLCS teams since 2012, their following season results were...

No Playoffs (2) Wild Card (2) NLDS (2) NLCS (3) World Series (3)

I figured a sample 24 teams would only be half as irrelevant, so I did the same thing for the AL...

No Playoffs (5) Wild Card (0) ALDS (3) ALCS (3) World Series (1)


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 17, 2019, 5:18 AM Post
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Heading into play today 14 teams in the National League are within 5.5 GB of the Wild Card. Only the Marlins are no doubt sellers at this point. I knew the NL was going to be a dog fight, but with between 65-68 games remaining on everyone’s schedule it is going to be quite the competition for those two Wild Card spots.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 17, 2019, 8:54 AM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
So crazy how close it is. Basically everyone is ok except the Marlins suck, the Dodgers are awesome, and the Braves are a small step behind the Dodgers. Then you look at the AL and there are 5 teams hanging around by the Marlins and the playoff race is pretty much a 7 team race for 5 spots. Rangers and Angels can pretend to try and be in it if they want, but they aren't.


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