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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 23, 2019, 2:03 PM Post
Posts: 5166
Location: New Berlin, WI
sveumrules said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
The Brewers are doing pretty much exactly what I didn't want.


With the increased competitiveness of the NL this year what you wanted was a pipe dream.

The odds of the Brewers cruising to the division title & not having to fight it out for 162 games (& maybe even more) were always extremely low.

We are currently 1/2 game out of the Wild Card & 2 games out of the division with 2 months to go.

Sounds like the perfect time to throw in the towel, or maybe this was just the most likely outcome all along so why stop fighting now?


Maybe adding a couple significant pieces is enough to put us further ahead of the other middle of the road teams and separate from the herd over the next 2 months?


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 23, 2019, 3:10 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
The Brewers are doing pretty much exactly what I didn't want.


With the increased competitiveness of the NL this year what you wanted was a pipe dream.

The odds of the Brewers cruising to the division title & not having to fight it out for 162 games (& maybe even more) were always extremely low.

We are currently 1/2 game out of the Wild Card & 2 games out of the division with 2 months to go.

Sounds like the perfect time to throw in the towel, or maybe this was just the most likely outcome all along so why stop fighting now?


I think that's pretty dishonest. I think most people knew the Brewers would win fewer games. I don't think anybody thought their bullpen would be atrocious. I'll be honest - if they were winning the same amount of games but had a lights out Hader, Knebel and Jeffress I would think it would still be worth it to get in. With the guys they are trotting out there, I simply don't. Saddest thing about last night's game is that I probably expect something similar to happen about 60% of the time if anyone not named Hader is pitching. I have no confidence in that pen to get the best hitters on the best teams out when it matters.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 23, 2019, 5:26 PM Post
Posts: 1122
Location: Wisconsin
sveumrules said:
BruisedCrew said:
The Brewers have gone 16-4 with Woodruff starting and 37-45 in the rest of their games. And that isn’t just good luck and exceptional hitting support.


Brewers Run Support by Starter

Woodruff (20 GS) 6.4
Peralta (8 GS) 6.0
Chase (15 GS) 5.3
Davies (20 GS) 4.5
Adrian (6 GS) 4.2
Gio (7 GS) 3.9
Jhoulys (18 GS) 3.4

A good deal of that 16-4 record is exceptional hitting support.


I said it isn’t “just” run support, not that run support isn’t a factor at all. But, I can’t ignore the fact that Woodruff has 10 quality starts, Davies has 8 and the rest of the staff has a grand total of 7. Sure, he’s had his share of games with a lot of runs scored, but he’s taken advantage of them by covering a lot of innings, maintaining the lead, and saving the bullpen. When a guy can go 8 innings allowing just one baserunner (a solo HR), I’m not going to say he was lucky because the Brewers scored 9 runs that day (some of which were a result of Woodruff’s hitting).

Before Sunday’s early departure, Woodruff had gone 6 innings or more in 10 of his previous 11 starts. Considering the “third time through the order” phobia, that’s pretty impressive.

No matter how you slice it, the Brewers are unlikely to find another starter (inside or outside the organization) who will be as effective as Woodruff has been.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 25, 2019, 4:29 PM Post
Posts: 1219
If you smell something stinky coming from the bed. It’s the mess the cubs and brewers left letting the cardinals get in first place

That team belongs nowhere near the lead. And there they are


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 25, 2019, 4:55 PM Post
Posts: 1844
willie key said:
If you smell something stinky coming from the bed. It’s the mess the cubs and brewers left letting the cardinals get in first place

That team belongs nowhere near the lead. And there they are



Well, to be fair, look who they have played out of the ASB...the Reds and Pirates(twice). They won't be in first for long(and will fade) once they start playing real teams like with the next few series they have coming up with the Cubs, A's, Astros and Dodgers. Goodbye Cardinals.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 26, 2019, 8:53 AM Post
Posts: 5166
Location: New Berlin, WI
Imagine being the Angels...best player in baseball and seriously trying to contend...and you lose a game like this a few days before the deadline

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1154749723892473861


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 26, 2019, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 4814
Location: Madison, WI
Brewcrewin07 said:
willie key said:
If you smell something stinky coming from the bed. It’s the mess the cubs and brewers left letting the cardinals get in first place

That team belongs nowhere near the lead. And there they are



Well, to be fair, look who they have played out of the ASB...the Reds and Pirates(twice). They won't be in first for long(and will fade) once they start playing real teams like with the next few series they have coming up with the Cubs, A's, Astros and Dodgers. Goodbye Cardinals.


I mean we've just laid an egg vs teams like Pit, Reds, Giants, Sea, SD and Miami. Generally speaking I'd probably agree with what you say but it's not like the team doesn't have talent. Basically it's tough to knock them for doing exactly what we couldn't do. If we'd have beat those teams we'd have a 6 game lead.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: July 26, 2019, 6:13 PM Post
Posts: 56
We may as well buy a relief arm or two at the deadline and let this play out. If we don't rebound we can always have a fire sale in the offseason given that guys like Hader, Yelich, and Hiura still have a ton of team control left.

Also, the value on at least Hader and Yelich can only go down after this season. There is no way they can get any better.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 5:39 AM Post
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The Brewers are now back tied with the Phillies for the second Wild Card spot and 2.0 GB of the Nationals for the top wild card spot. They trail the Cubs by 3.0 games for the division lead.

Following the August 7th games a year ago the Brewers were 2.5 GB of the Cubs for the division lead and were sitting in the first wild card spot, 1.0 game ahead of the Braves who occupied the second Wild Card spot at the time.

All things considered it seems sort of incredible the Brewers remain well positioned to make a run at both the division and wild card spots over the final quarter of the season.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 7:22 AM Post
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If the bullpen reinforcements continue to play as well as they have, the Brewers are somehow well positioned to make the playoffs. It never gets less shocking to say out loud because the season really feels like a dumpster fire until you look at the standings. I've felt all year like they should be 5-10 games under .500 but they've somehow managed to tread water.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 7:49 AM Post
Posts: 12186
Minor additions can make the dumbest of impacts sometimes. Heck over a month or two months someone can pitch like they are the greatest reliever/starter in the game. You just never really know. Look at Davies to start the year...you never know.

Jordan Lyles - 10 IP 1.80 ERA

Zack Greinke - 6 IP 7.50 ERA


And the postseason? All it takes is Clayton Kershaw (or whoever the #1 is) to blow chunks for two games and you are 2/3 of the way to winning the NLDS. Which happens way more often than people think. That is usually how teams lose.

Stupider things have happened. Season is far from over.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 7:51 AM Post
Posts: 4814
Location: Madison, WI
Agree with the sentiment of the last few posts. But I guess if we think back to the beginning of the season most folks viewed the NL as tough due to there only really being one truly bad team. So in a way it was kind of expected to have a mess of a parity since teams are just going to beat each other up. I'd agree it's still worse than I expected though, like the clump of teams battling here I wouldn't have expected to be 4ish games over .500. More like 8-11ish instead. Still, it's somewhat playing out as expected in a way


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 7:52 AM Post
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The 5-game first round is probably the best thing the MLB playoffs have going for them. I still don't know how I really feel about the Wild Card. In the NL this year it's a good thing, but I still have a bit of a problem in situations where WC1 wins like 97 games and has to play an 83-win team for one game.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 7:58 AM Post
Posts: 4642
I think I've posted this in another thread, but if the Brewers can stay within arm's length of the NL Central lead and WC spots through the rest of their tough August slate of games, they've got to be considered a favorite to make the postseason once rosters expand in September - despite the uneven bullpen arms, the expanded rosters will help them the same way it did last September at least to some extent. The more important factor is what their schedule looks like for the month compared to what other NL teams competing with them will face.

The Cubs and Cards play each other 7 times during the last 10 days of the season, when the Brewers will be playing the Pirates, Reds, and Rockies. Keep the offense humming along and the season-long pitching inconsistencies are less alarming...particularly if Woodruff can get back in the rotation down the stretch.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 9:49 AM Post
Posts: 4814
Location: Madison, WI
Starting with WSH next weekend they'll have 19/21 games against direct competitors for the division and WC. The other two being vs HOU. That's the season right there.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 10:56 AM Post
Posts: 5166
Location: New Berlin, WI
Despite their competition being super easy, I am a bit concerned about the Mets win streak...considering their rotation strength and bats have been heating up. I've been starting 3 Mets position players on my fantasy team for a couple weeks now...mostly just noting that this team is good right now in every facet of the game. The schedule gets tougher this week, so maybe they fall back to reality a bit.

I firmly believe the Brewers will make the playoffs if they start to really heat up. It's hard to overly concern myself with other teams...it's as simple as the Brewers performance for me. In my opinion...88 wins is probably a playoff team...90 wins probably get the division. Can we go 28-18...or maybe even 30-16?


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:00 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
I'm also going to point out, the Cubs have not won a road series since April...and the only 2 they won in April were against the Dbacks and Marlins. They've played some other cupcake teams on the road the last few months...but haven't won any series. They start a 10 game road trip today. No tough travel and no tough teams...Cincy/Philly/Pitt...will be curious to see if they can shake their road woes or if they manage to lose 6 or 7 of these 10 games. Safe to say we are all hoping for the latter.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
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Could we win 28-30 times over the next 46 games? We could. But this team sure hasn’t had that in them so far this season. Hopefully they find the switch but they sure play a lot of good teams coming up. Hard for me to believe it’ll happen but ya never know.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:13 AM Post
Posts: 587
No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

Tex: win 2/3
Min: win 1/2
@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)
@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)
Ari: win 2/3
Stl: win 2/3
@Chc: win 1/3
Hou: win 1/2
Chc: win 2/4
@Mia: win 3/4
@Stl: win 2/3
SD: win 2/4
Pit: win 2/3
@Cin: win 2/3
@Col: win 2/3

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
Posts: 587
I agree with you - that Mets team is awfully scary right now, and I'm glad we don't have to play them anymore (at least in the regular season) - as I would not want to go up against them in a series with deGrom, Thor, Stroman and Wheeler. The Mets were the laughing stock of baseball when they went out and got Stroman before the deadline, but they might just get the last laugh when all is said and done.


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