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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
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Posts: 13674
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I know we don’t do many poll questions around here but a good one would be where do you think the Brewers will finish:

-Central Division Champs
-Wild Card 1
-Wild Card 2
-Miss Playoffs

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:52 AM Post
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The Weatherman
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I give them about a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs, and if they do make the playoffs it is about 50/50 between division and WC2. Thinking Nationals are a lock for WC1.

Mets will find a way to Mets.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 11:54 AM Post
Posts: 587
Brew4U said:
I know we don’t do many poll questions around here but a good one would be where do you think the Brewers will finish:

-Central Division Champs
-Wild Card 1
-Wild Card 2
-Miss Playoffs


As much as it pains me to say this, I think we end up missing the playoffs - with either 85-86 wins. I just don't think a rotation of Chase, Gio, Lyles and Houser is good enough to get us through these next few weeks, and we'll probably be too far out of it by the time Woody and any other reinforcements are ready to help out in September. Hope I'm wrong though!

Now would be a great time for this offense to get really hot and take some pressure off of the pitching.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 12:17 PM Post
Posts: 1219
How many more games against the pirates do we have? 3?

We aren't making the playoffs


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 12:36 PM Post
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Kinda hard for me to imagine 85 or 86 wins and not making it. That should be enough. I don't think the division is really in play. Obviously, it is with 45 or so games to play and being 3 out, but I just don't see that happening. I would say they're 33% of being a Wild Card. The candidates I take seriously for WC2 are the Brewers, Cards and Phillies. If I have to give an answer I'd say they don't make it. If they suddenly have four guys in the bullpen who are lock-down for a month, then that changes everything.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 1:26 PM Post
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Current Playoff Odds per...

538: 32% (15% division/17% WC)
BPro: 29.5% (12.5% division/17% WC)
FanGraphs: 28.6% (10.1% division/18.5% WC)
BRef: 24.3% (6.6% division/17.7% WC)

I'm still predicting some sort of tie that will require extra baseball to be played & am still hoping the Brewers are somehow involved in it.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 1:32 PM Post
Posts: 1219
sveumrules said:
Current Playoff Odds per...

538: 32% (15% division/17% WC)
BPro: 29.5% (12.5% division/17% WC)
FanGraphs: 28.6% (10.1% division/18.5% WC)
BRef: 24.3% (6.6% division/17.7% WC)

I'm still predicting some sort of tie that will require extra baseball to be played & am still hoping the Brewers are somehow involved in it.


If Im not mistaken the Brewers % chances have gone down like 32% from July 1.

July was a killer month for us


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 08, 2019, 1:43 PM Post
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willie key said:
sveumrules said:
Current Playoff Odds per...

538: 32% (15% division/17% WC)
BPro: 29.5% (12.5% division/17% WC)
FanGraphs: 28.6% (10.1% division/18.5% WC)
BRef: 24.3% (6.6% division/17.7% WC)

I'm still predicting some sort of tie that will require extra baseball to be played & am still hoping the Brewers are somehow involved in it.


If Im not mistaken the Brewers % chances have gone down like 32% from July 1.

July was a killer month for us


I had noted our %s a few times earlier in the thread, I think they peaked somewhere around June 3...

FG: 61%
538: 73%
BRef: 85%

...so like a 40-60% drop since then, depending on the source.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 09, 2019, 5:24 AM Post
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The Brewers are now sole occupants of the 2nd wild card spot with three teams just 0.5 GB of them (Cardinals, Mets, Phillies) and the next closest teams 1.5 GB (Diamondbacks) and 3.0 GB (Giants). The Nationals remain in the 1st WC spot by 2.0 games.

Odds are that one or more of those teams currently vying for the wild card game will go on a hot streak over the final month and a half of the season.

Here is my prediction on what each will take (2nd WC, 1st WC, NL Champ):

I predict it will take 87 wins to get the second Wild Card spot outright, and 86 wins to tie for the spot. In the case of the Brewers this would mean finishing 27-19 to secure it outright and 26-20 in order to hold a play-in game for the spot.

I think it will take 89 wins to secure the first Wild Card spot. In the case of the Brewers this would mean finishing 29-17.

I think it will take 90 wins to take the NL Central outright. In the case of the Brewers this would mean finishing 30-16. For the Cardinals to achieve 90 wins it would mean finishing 32-17, and for the Cubs they would have to finish 27-20 to get to 90 wins.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 09, 2019, 7:59 AM Post
Posts: 4814
Location: Madison, WI
What a difference 4 days makes. From the vibe of we're basically done to all of a sudden in the playoffs. Do their job and get 2/3 this weekend and they should be sitting OK with only 40ish games to go


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 10, 2019, 9:20 AM Post
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NL wild card race heading into Saturday, August 10th (image via MLB Twitter account).


Image


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
Posts: 5166
Location: New Berlin, WI
Brewers are currently 1.5 games back from both the wildcard and division. The Cardinals are currently tied, but rank ahead of the Cubs with 1 less win but 1 less loss. I would put the cutoff for teams out of the race at the Reds being 7.5 back. They need a win 10 of 12 stretch in a hurry just to get back to contention. If that's the threshold, there's still 7 teams vying for 2 wildcard spots...with the Giants being furthest out at 4.5 back.

It's weird that in the AL, it's really 3 teams only involved in the wildcard. Maybe the Red Sox make a run...but they are 7.5 back and there are so many cupcake matchups. Winning 10 of 12 might only move them from 7.5 back to 5.5 back.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:50 AM Post
Posts: 5166
Location: New Berlin, WI
madtownhawk said:
Tex: win 2/3 - check
Min: win 1/2 - check
@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)
@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)
Ari: win 2/3
Stl: win 2/3
@Chc: win 1/3
Hou: win 1/2
Chc: win 2/4
@Mia: win 3/4
@Stl: win 2/3
SD: win 2/4
Pit: win 2/3
@Cin: win 2/3
@Col: win 2/3


For the Nationals, Scherzer may be back on an abbreviated pitch count for one of the weekend games. We also get Corbin on Friday, but we will miss Strasburg as he pitched yesterday. Figure on Fedde or Sanchez for the other game. On the bright side, we'll for sure get 2 RH starters this weekend.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:55 AM Post
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Location: Neenah
I don't know if Strasburg is an issue. Brewers have roughed him up before.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:23 PM Post
Posts: 7188
Phillies just walked off the Cubs


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:24 PM Post
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Grand Slam.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:25 PM Post
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Well, one back of two teams for the division. Lots of games against both. 10-6 against Cubs and Cards should give them a good shot.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:34 PM Post
Posts: 7188
https://twitter.com/statsbystats/status ... 11296?s=21


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:47 PM Post
Posts: 501
The Cubs bullpen is really really bad. No way a team with a bullpen that leaky wins a world series.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:52 PM Post
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Posts: 10999
shanedog19 said:
The Cubs bullpen is really really bad. No way a team with a bullpen that leaky wins a world series.


Red Sox bullpen was awful going into the playoffs last year and they won it. There is no true path to winning it all, just get hot at the right time.


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