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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 17, 2019, 11:03 PM Post
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On August 29, 2018, the Brewers were coming off a 9-7 loss to the Reds and were in danger of falling 8 games back of the Cubs in the loss column before rallying for a 13-12, extra inning win in Cincinnati. Perhaps tonight’s 15-14, extra-inning win in DC can be a similar springboard.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 18, 2019, 8:52 AM Post
Posts: 4421
NYChez said:
On August 29, 2018, the Brewers were coming off a 9-7 loss to the Reds and were in danger of falling 8 games back of the Cubs in the loss column before rallying for a 13-12, extra inning win in Cincinnati. Perhaps tonight’s 15-14, extra-inning win in DC can be a similar springboard.


Unless the 2018 frosty boys show up to turn the bullpen into something more than a glaring weakness, the best they can hope for is to have the offense go on a crazy 6 week run and win the race to 88 wins to win this cluster of a division.

Regardless, this team is entertaining - both good and bad


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 19, 2019, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 535
madtownhawk said:
No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

Tex: win 2/3
Min: win 1/2
@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)
@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)
Ari: win 2/3
Stl: win 2/3
@Chc: win 1/3
Hou: win 1/2
Chc: win 2/4
@Mia: win 3/4
@Stl: win 2/3
SD: win 2/4
Pit: win 2/3
@Cin: win 2/3
@Col: win 2/3

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.


Figured that I would check back in on these projections now that we've gotten through a few series since I posted what I thought it would take for the Crew to make the playoffs. We took care of business by beating Tex 2/3 and by splitting that Twins series, but we lost the series against the Nats that I thought we needed to win (since we were missing Strasburg and Scherzer). So, we need to make that up somewhere, and I can't think of a better place to do that than in STL this week. Need 2/3 here, especially with us missing Mikolas and Flaherty (arguably their two best SP's).


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 19, 2019, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 11402
They post it every year on how their could be some nuts tiebreaker and usually it is some far fetched idea just because it would take a perfect scenario. But honestly their are three teams in the NL Central that believe average baseball is the new style, no one is running away with the top WC so those two spots are very close, and realistically I see three teams very close vying to get into a WC. There are a lot of scenarios to make one nightmare of a tiebreaker.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 21, 2019, 2:52 PM Post
Posts: 4954
Location: New Berlin, WI
madtownhawk said:
Tex: win 2/3
Min: win 1/2
@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)
@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)
Ari: win 2/3
Stl: win 2/3
@Chc: win 1/3
Hou: win 1/2
Chc: win 2/4
@Mia: win 3/4
@Stl: win 2/3
SD: win 2/4
Pit: win 2/3
@Cin: win 2/3
@Col: win 2/3


Best case scenario, we are one game behind this projection after today. Easiest places to steal an extra game are probably home vs CHC, home vs SD, or home vs Pit...not in any particular order.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 10:24 AM Post
Posts: 4954
Location: New Berlin, WI
29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 2857
KeithStone53151 said:
29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.


Yes, hopeful for sure.
How many NL contenders vying for the wild card or central have as many arms on the way as we do?

I would argue none. Peralta Suter Nelson will help big time, Freitas to give some rest for Grandal is big. Spangenberg has already added a spark with his speed and hustle, Guerra and his splitter, Jackson and his slider vs select RHH, Pomeranz’s experience, Hader and his slider, then Woodruff for the last couple weeks, with a possible rejuvenated Burnes, how can one not get excited.

Add all that to a team that knows September is their time to shine, and chomping at the bit to get hot anyhow, wild card probable, division still possible, imo.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
Posts: 4532
Location: Madison, WI
Yea it's not lost yet. Of course last year they'd have no shot only being 4 over. But this year it's still right there for the taking if they can through this last week or so of tough games still within just a few games any playoff spot. Get 2/3 this weekend would be a nice start.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 10:51 AM Post
Posts: 4421
Brew crew 92 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.


Yes, hopeful for sure.
How many NL contenders vying for the wild card or central have as many arms on the way as we do?

I would argue none. Peralta Suter Nelson will help big time, Freitas to give some rest for Grandal is big. Spangenberg has already added a spark with his speed and hustle, Guerra and his splitter, Jackson and his slider vs select RHH, Pomeranz’s experience, Hader and his slider, then Woodruff for the last couple weeks, with a possible rejuvenated Burnes, how can one not get excited.

Add all that to a team that knows September is their time to shine, and chomping at the bit to get hot anyhow, wild card probable, division still possible, imo.



Most teams actually do - most other contenders actually have much better arms already on the 25 man roster and arent desperate to find even league average options on the back end of their 40 mam roster to log meaningful september innings.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 10:53 AM Post
Posts: 1001
If brewers win 5 out of 7 against cubs they have a shot. Anything less than that will probably be the final straw


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
Posts: 2857
Fear The Chorizo said:
Brew crew 92 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.


Yes, hopeful for sure.
How many NL contenders vying for the wild card or central have as many arms on the way as we do?

I would argue none. Peralta Suter Nelson will help big time, Freitas to give some rest for Grandal is big. Spangenberg has already added a spark with his speed and hustle, Guerra and his splitter, Jackson and his slider vs select RHH, Pomeranz’s experience, Hader and his slider, then Woodruff for the last couple weeks, with a possible rejuvenated Burnes, how can one not get excited.

Add all that to a team that knows September is their time to shine, and chomping at the bit to get hot anyhow, wild card probable, division still possible, imo.



Most teams actually do - most other contenders actually have much better arms already on the 25 man roster and arent desperate to find even league average options on the back end of their 40 mam roster to log meaningful september innings.


Disagree, I’ll take the crew’s September staff over the Nats, Phil’s, Mets, Cards, Cubbies. Provided Houser is ok to start and Woodruff is back the second half of September.

Oh, forgot about a well rested Jeffress earlier, sorry your so down on this team, but the pitching is looking up, way up. Just hoping the offense with the Freitas added can hit better with RISP.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 11:57 AM Post
Posts: 4532
Location: Madison, WI
I would no way take our staff over Nats and Mets. Pretty sure I wouldn't over the others but at least could see discussion so don't want to say anything. NAts and Mets though I wouldn't think twice.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:28 PM Post
Posts: 4421
I think it's more likely that woodruff doesn't pitch again in milwaukee this season than return in a few weeks, and I think houser is going to miss at least one start. I'd take the other teams' staffs over the brewers, too. A well rested jeffress is still a bad pitcher this season in late inning/high leverage spots. All the supposed arms coming up in september are down on the farm right now because they didn't deserve a 25 man roster spot due to either being injured, pitching poorly, or in many cases both.

I'll gladly agree to disagree with a poster who can't even find a clock to accidentally be right twice a day based on his track record


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
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Posts: 13164
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Yeah, I don't see it happening for the Crew this season. It's been the writing on the wall for a while already. We just are not deep enough or talented enough in the pitching department to make a serious run. Last year, was last year with making a comeback. That team was talented enough to win 96 games. This team will be lucky to be minus 10 from that. Hopefully, they are smart with a guy like Woodruff because he could be a huge piece to our success next season and beyond.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:39 PM Post
Posts: 637
Location: Washburn, WI
Yeah, I don’t see how anyone could take our pitching staff over Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin or DeGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, and Wheeler. Outside of the Astros and possibly the Dodgers, those two staffs are vying for the best there is.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:43 PM Post
Posts: 637
Location: Washburn, WI
Brew4U said:
Yeah, I don't see it happening for the Crew this season. It's been the writing on the wall for a while already. We just are not deep enough or talented enough in the pitching department to make a serious run. Last year, was last year with making a comeback. That team was talented enough to win 96 games. This team will be lucky to be minus 10 from that. Hopefully, they are smart with a guy like Woodruff because he could be a huge piece to our success next season and beyond.


Absolutely. I think it is wise for the Brewers to hold Woodruff back from pitching again this season and make sure he is 100% heading into 2020. I don’t see the Brewers making the playoffs, but even if they did, they would need a lot more than Woodruff to make a real run at the World Series. There just is not enough high end pitching talent on the roster this season.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:46 PM Post
Posts: 4532
Location: Madison, WI
It's just crazy that a week or so back GM is on hot seat due to how awful he constructed the team and pitching, now all of a sudden they have the best staff in the NL outside of LAD. Heck, with Jansen falling apart maybe we're actually better than them too.

Speaking of Jansen, seems LAD really should be kicking themselves for not upgrading the pen. In spite of how loaded their team is they have a massive achilles heal right now and it was one that everyone could see coming before the deadline, especially if you have Jansen in fantasy. Wonder what Pit was demanding for Vasquez, I'd assume Pit wouldn't budge if they didn't give the AAA SS prospect.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:46 PM Post
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I see the offense as being too inconsistent to go on a serious run. I actually think the rotation is in decent shape, and while the pen has everyone on pins and needles every game, they've been a little better lately. Inconsistent hitting is dooming this team.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 1:12 PM Post
Posts: 2857
Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?. Stearns just said Woody will be back, just not stretched out. Some you are seriously discounting the boost this bullpen will have soon from pitchers in AAA that are pitching lights out > Suter, or really well > Nelson Peralta. Guerra throwing his splitter is big, Hader with the slider, Pomeranz has looked really good. That’s 6 pen arms, imo, on the upswing not including Claudio Albers Jeffress Jackson. And I won’t be shocked to see burnes added next week either.

This is not the first 5 months bullpen.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: August 29, 2019, 1:17 PM Post
Posts: 2857
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I see the offense as being too inconsistent to go on a serious run. I actually think the rotation is in decent shape, and while the pen has everyone on pins and needles every game, they've been a little better lately. Inconsistent hitting is dooming this team.


Agree, if they don’t get in, it’ll be the offense and not the pitching.


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