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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 04, 2019, 12:11 PM Post
Posts: 3060
All I’m saying is it’s not over, we could win 17 of our last 20 still and get in.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 04, 2019, 12:14 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
Guy's gotta get his posts in while he can before the next pitching staff blowup dampens the September callup narrative that he's been parroting for the past 3 months falls apart.


Well a mere 2-3 weeks ago management all had to go due to how horribly the team is built and managed. Now, apparently they're one of the best teams in the league.[/quote]

I already addressed that. But I’ll do it again. I was wrong. I was angry at Stearns for the specific roster imbalance, and Freitas being kept down with a .530 batting average vs Lefties. Our lineup against LHP, no upgrade at SS. I’m not angry anymore, it’s over, he’s more than made up for with the deadline deals he did make, and the planned September roster. But that’s fine, some on here can keep bringing up our 13 th ranked pitching, ha, or how we have too small of a sample size, blah blah blah.[/quote]



ahh, but this time you're right and we're all just too blind to see it. Just like we were then as well. OK[/quote]


No, I think most here see, what I see, but maybe not to the extent that I see it yet. But of course time will tell.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 04, 2019, 6:47 PM Post
Posts: 434
Brew crew 92 said:
madtownhawk said:
KeithStone53151 said:
You all know we're almost certainly getting 2 of 4 this weekend, right? Primarily because it's by far the most obnoxious number. 3-4 wins clearly puts us back in the 2nd wildcard race. 0-1 wins clearly puts us out of it, we'd pretty much have to win out at that point. 2 wins leaves us 4 back with 20 to play. It's sorta kinda in contention...definitely an annoying spot to be.


And, this is my biggest concern. As much as I hate the Cubs - and want to see us win as many games as possible from them, I'd almost rather see us lose 3/4 this weekend than to split this series. Splitting this series will do nothing for us. Yes, we'll have a very small percentage of hope remaining, but I just don't see any way we are going to make up 4 games with 20 games to play, especially when none of those remaining games are against the Cubs. As others have already noted - our season basically comes down to these 4 games this weekend. Need to win 3/4 to keep hope alive. Anything less than that, and you can stick a fork in this season.


I won’t deny these aren’t important games. But, if we split the series it’s not over. Remember the Cubbies play the Cards 7 more times. And Hiura should be back for the last 2 weeks, and Woody the last week at least.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we win our last 10 games if needed.


The Crew also trail the Phils and the D'backs, so they too have to lose for the Brewers to gain ground. The Mets are 1/2 game back and they have to be accounted for. We have to hope this weekend goes really well and the Cards take at least 4 from the cubs. No matter what, the Crew has to go on a significant winning streak to have any chance.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 04, 2019, 11:00 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:


No, I think most here see, what I see, but maybe not to the extent that I see it yet. But of course time will tell.



Just stop posting stuff like this. You don't have prescient powers that let you see things other people can't. Seriously. Just stop. Not going to ask again.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 07, 2019, 6:21 AM Post
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Posts: 13479
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Per Adam McCalvy:
The Brewers are...
5-5 last 10g
10-10 last 20g
15-15 last 30g
20-20 last 40g
25-25 last 50g
30-30 last 60g


This is how you miss the playoffs.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 10:18 AM Post
Posts: 5094
Location: New Berlin, WI
Anyone notice the nationals lost 4 in a row? They are only 2 games ahead of the cubs now and are potentially in range if we win today...especially if their losing streak continues.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 3:43 PM Post
Posts: 2299
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Brewers - @ MIA (4), @ STL, SD (4), PIT, @ CIN, @ COL - 20
Cubs - @ SD (4), PIT, CIN, STL (4), @ PIT, @ STL - 20
Cards - @ COL, MIL, WAS, @ CHC (4), @ ARI, CHC - 19
AZ @ NYM (4), CIN, MIA, @ SD, STL, SD - 19
PHI – ATL (4), BOS, @ ATL, @ CLE, @ WAS (5), MIA - 21
WAS - @ MIN, ATL, @ STL, @ MIA, PHI (5), CLE - 20

The Brewers play the bottom 5 in the NL Standings with the only team remaining with a winning record being the Cards. If the Brewers can sweep MIA, they would probably move up a game or two but then might move right back down with a 1-2 trip to STL. However, looking at their final 13 games, they could bust out a 11-2 run. They closed last year at 9-1. If they go 16-4, they are in.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 3:53 PM Post
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My guess is that if the Brewers finish the season 13-7 they will at least force a playoff “play-in” game and could possibly get in outright.

As I mentioned in the IGT, the Brewers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for home field advantage versus the Nationals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Mets.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 4:03 PM Post
Posts: 3780
I mean, it's fun and all but we are still in the realm of "it could happn but it probably won't". Personally, I just can't get past not knowing what your pitching is going to do from game to game.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 4:12 PM Post
Posts: 11867
They have...a shot. Gotta keep the pedal down. 2 games back isn’t bad, but 3+ is just not a great situation as we get deeper into September.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 4:13 PM Post
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Bombers said:
Brewers - @ MIA (4), @ STL, SD (4), PIT, @ CIN, @ COL - 20
Cubs - @ SD (4), PIT, CIN, STL (4), @ PIT, @ STL - 20
Cards - @ COL, MIL, WAS, @ CHC (4), @ ARI, CHC - 19
AZ @ NYM (4), CIN, MIA, @ SD, STL, SD - 19
PHI – ATL (4), BOS, @ ATL, @ CLE, @ WAS (5), MIA - 21
WAS - @ MIN, ATL, @ STL, @ MIA, PHI (5), CLE - 20

The Brewers play the bottom 5 in the NL Standings with the only team remaining with a winning record being the Cards. If the Brewers can sweep MIA, they would probably move up a game or two but then might move right back down with a 1-2 trip to STL. However, looking at their final 13 games, they could bust out a 11-2 run. They closed last year at 9-1. If they go 16-4, they are in.


The Phillies and Nationals have brutal stretches. Both only have have one team with a losing record


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 4:16 PM Post
Posts: 3060
82brewcrew82 said:
I mean, it's fun and all but we are still in the realm of "it could happn but it probably won't". Personally, I just can't get past not knowing what your pitching is going to do from game to game.


Think the fact our line-up is short Hiura Moose Pina, with Braun and Cain also hurting, is probably just as concerning isn’t it?


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 4:26 PM Post
Posts: 3780
Brew crew 92 said:
82brewcrew82 said:
I mean, it's fun and all but we are still in the realm of "it could happn but it probably won't". Personally, I just can't get past not knowing what your pitching is going to do from game to game.


Think the fact our line-up is short Hiura Moose Pina, with Braun and Cain also hurting, is probably just as concerning isn’t it?

Not for me. They seem to be finding ways to score enough runs. The pitching has been bad all year.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 6:15 PM Post
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Sept 8th and still playing meaningful games.. Lots of seasons we couldn't say that. With how many things that have gone utterly wrong, theyre still on the fringe.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 7:10 PM Post
Posts: 11867
RoCoBrewfan said:
Sept 8th and still playing meaningful games.. Lots of seasons we couldn't say that. With how many things that have gone utterly wrong, theyre still on the fringe.


Lately we have played meaningful games a ton in September:

2007
2008
2011
2012
2014
2017
2018
2019

That is about 62% of the last 13 years. Hard to complain considering how they were the few decades before.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 7:16 PM Post
Posts: 1229
Fangraphs has us at 19.2 percent to make the playoffs. 538 has us at 18. That's the best in the current chase pack.

I think you need to be 13-7 at least here. With the number of teams in contention, 87 wins seems like it will be the minimum. 14-6 would put you in pretty good shape for at least a playoff to get to the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 08, 2019, 7:59 PM Post
Posts: 87
I think 14-6 might be enough to get them in. Like it was mentioned above the Phillies and Nats both have a tough schedule ahead of them. Miami tripped the Crew up in June now it’s time to go knock them around and get to St. Louis with some real momentum.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 6:08 AM Post
Posts: 3060
The Cubbies are not a good team. We should have won 3 of 4, even shorthanded, as we are. Now the tough part begins.

Trap series if I’ve ever seen one. Recent history says we just don’t play well vs this team, especially in Miami, and that’s with a team that has moose in the lineup and a healthy Cain and Braun.

Hoping for 3 of 4, but a split would not surprise. Even losing 3 of 4 wouldn’t shock me. Hoping Yelich can continue to carry us offensively.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 6:48 AM Post
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4 gamer @ Mia: have to find a way to take 3 of 4
3 gamer @ St. Louis: would be great to take two, but I'm guessing they take 1 of 3
4 gamer home against San Diego: this should be a series they can take 3 of 4
3 gamer home against Pittsburgh: they are going to need a sweep in here somewhere, and this might be the series to take 3 of 3
3 gamer @ Cincy: they have played the Reds better of late, and the Reds will be in a spoiler role obviously by this time. Still, this series scares me. Hopefully they can take 2 of 3
3 gamer @ Colorado: If things go according to the plan above, the team will be sitting at 86 wins. I don't know if 87 or 88 wins gets them a WC spot this year. They might need a sweep to finish at 89 wins.

Now obviously this is pretty optimistic, and you can never predict a sweep, but if this team gets hot, and finally plays the way it should against perceived lesser competition, a 90-win season isn't impossible. Of course, this team has put a lot of bad baseball on tape this season as well, so anything can happen.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 6:57 AM Post
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I'd rather be us than the Cubs right now. They are riding on fumes and have 7 games coming up against the Cards and 3 against the Reds on the road.


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