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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 7:57 AM Post
Posts: 4436
Don't sleep on the Cards having problems the rest of this month despite their recent extended run of winning baseball - If the Cubs don't implode the rest of September for them looks pretty daunting compared to their last ~20 games.

They've got Rockies on the road (CO isn't a great team, but that stadium kills good pitching), followed by Brewers, Nationals, Cubs, Dbacks, Cubs...It wouldn't surprise me if headed into the season's last weekend that the division and at least one wild card sport are up for grabs among the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers.

The Cubs, while still in wildcard position, are a battered team right now that can't rely on its starting rotation nearly as much as they need to. That said, they still have the talent to prevent a tailspin, so they will be a factor until the end. Brewers need to win series, and they'll be a postseason participant.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 8:07 AM Post
Posts: 2891
Fear The Chorizo said:
Don't sleep on the Cards having problems the rest of this month despite their recent extended run of winning baseball - If the Cubs don't implode the rest of September for them looks pretty daunting compared to their last ~20 games.

They've got Rockies on the road (CO isn't a great team, but that stadium kills good pitching), followed by Brewers, Nationals, Cubs, Dbacks, Cubs...It wouldn't surprise me if headed into the season's last weekend that the division and at least one wild card sport are up for grabs among the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers.

The Cubs, while still in wildcard position, are a battered team right now that can't rely on its starting rotation nearly as much as they need to. That said, they still have the talent to prevent a tailspin, so they will be a factor until the end. Brewers need to win series, and they'll be a postseason participant.


100% agree.
The cards have played above their talent level for an extended period and are due for a correction. If Yelich can continue to carry the team offensively, at least until, Moose and or Hiura are back, this division could still be up for grabs.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 8:53 AM Post
Posts: 4517
Sweep the Marlins, sweep the Cards...

In fact, maybe it's time to see if this Crew can make George Webb give away free burgers again...


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 8:58 AM Post
Posts: 4564
Location: Madison, WI
Happy to be alive another week. Get 3/4 from MIA and they really shouldn't be in too bad of shape at that point. Easier said than done of course.

For the division, while I agree with your premise overall of Cards due for a downturn a bit. We need to make up 7 games with only 20 to go. This is almost impossible. You'd need a historic collapse from them. Sure, if you sweep them that would at least put it in play, but still this is almost impossible.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 9:36 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
I fully expect this team to split with Miami. Happy to be totally wrong though.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 10:14 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
Having survived the Cubs and Astros going 6-3, the Brewers only have 3 games left against teams with winning records. Here is the remaining games left against winning teams for all remaining contenders:

Brewers: 3
Cubs: 7
D'Backs 7
Mets: 10
Cardinals: 16
Phillies: 17
Nationals: 17

Unbelievably the door is open for the Brewers to get into the post season. While they have the most work to do outside of New York, they have the softest remaining schedule by far including 50% of their remaining games against last place teams. The problem now is can they buck a season long trend of poor play against last place teams.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 10:21 AM Post
Posts: 639
Location: Washburn, WI
Hopefully the smell of another postseason birth gets them in gear down the stretch to make a run at getting in. Take 3/4 against Miami and we will be sitting pretty.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 10:43 AM Post
Posts: 4979
Location: New Berlin, WI
tmwiese55 said:
Happy to be alive another week. Get 3/4 from MIA and they really shouldn't be in too bad of shape at that point. Easier said than done of course.

For the division, while I agree with your premise overall of Cards due for a downturn a bit. We need to make up 7 games with only 20 to go. This is almost impossible. You'd need a historic collapse from them. Sure, if you sweep them that would at least put it in play, but still this is almost impossible.


To get within a reasonable range, we for sure would need to sweep the Cards. And they haven't shown signs of slowing down yet, so that's wildly unlikely. The most likely outcome playing 3 in st louis is 1 win. Hopefully the guys aren't looking ahead and are focused on Miami. We really need to hit in this series, 8+ runs a game and make the pitching side of things trivial.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 12:24 PM Post
Posts: 542
madtownhawk said:
madtownhawk said:
No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

Tex: win 2/3
Min: win 1/2
@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)
@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)
Ari: win 2/3
Stl: win 2/3
@Chc: win 1/3
Hou: win 1/2
Chc: win 2/4
@Mia: win 3/4
@Stl: win 2/3
SD: win 2/4
Pit: win 2/3
@Cin: win 2/3
@Col: win 2/3

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.


Just for fun, I thought I would revisit this projection today - now that we are about 1/2 way through it. I thought when I looked back on this today that we would be way off my projection at this point - but to my surprise, we are only a game behind - through the Cubs series that wrapped up on Sunday. Now, we are going to need to win tonight in game 2 vs the Astros to remain a game behind (I had us splitting this series, and we've obviously lost the first game already). If (and I know it's a HUGE "if") we can win tonight, and then somehow find a way to take 3/4 from the Cubs this weekend (that's almost a "must have" situation), then we'll somehow be back in line with my projection towards 87 wins. Unfortunately though - I had us then winning every series from the final Cubs series forward, and it's really hard to envision this team accomplishing such a feat at this stage, the way they continue to play (not to mention all of the injuries that have mounted now).


Well, go figure - we did what we had to do last week (winning the 2nd game against the Stros and 3/4 against the Cubs) to get back on track with my projected route to 87 wins. Now, who knows if 87 wins will be enough to get the 2nd WC - but I've got to figure that it'll at least keep us in the conversation right up until that last weekend of the season. I had us needing to go 13-7 now in this final 20 game stretch, so as has already been stated - this team is going to have to play really good baseball during these final three weeks if they are to make a run. 3/4 in Miami is almost a "must" at this point.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 12:25 PM Post
Posts: 4436
KeithStone53151 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Happy to be alive another week. Get 3/4 from MIA and they really shouldn't be in too bad of shape at that point. Easier said than done of course.

For the division, while I agree with your premise overall of Cards due for a downturn a bit. We need to make up 7 games with only 20 to go. This is almost impossible. You'd need a historic collapse from them. Sure, if you sweep them that would at least put it in play, but still this is almost impossible.


To get within a reasonable range, we for sure would need to sweep the Cards. And they haven't shown signs of slowing down yet, so that's wildly unlikely. The most likely outcome playing 3 in st louis is 1 win. Hopefully the guys aren't looking ahead and are focused on Miami. We really need to hit in this series, 8+ runs a game and make the pitching side of things trivial.


I hear this alot, and it isn't really true even with just 20 games to go. If the Brewers win each of their remaining series, they are at minimum 88-74 at season's end. Assuming this means the Brewers take 2 of 3 against the Cardinals, meaning they'd still trail them by 5.5 games after taking out this weekend's 3 game set. We'd also need to assume the extra game the Brewers have is a win, meaning they'd need to play 5 full games better than the Cardinals over their remaining 16 games on the calendar. Sure, that's a tall order, but it isn't that far fetched for the Brewers to go 11-5 or better against the likes of the Marlins, Padres, Reds, Pirates, and Rockies while the Cards could go 5-11 against the Cubs, Nationals, Dbacks, and Rockies. The silver lining is if the Cards don't crater during this part of their schedule, they'll be helping the Brewers by beating up directly on their wildcard competition.

Sure, sweeping the Cards this weekend makes a big swing in the division standings and really opens the door for having the division title in play by late September. Reality is that the Brewers still have a shot at the division if they are within 3 games of the lead headed into the season's last week based on schedules, and they have two weeks to make up 3.5 games in the standings with an extra game and a head-to-head series during that time to at least get to that point.

By no means do I expect it to happen, but it's not that unrealistic if the Brewers play well.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 12:31 PM Post
Posts: 4564
Location: Madison, WI
It's like going 14-6 combined with them going 6-14. Ballpark approximations here of course. Combine the odds on both of those happening and you're at shockingly low percent, probably in the 1-3 type area. But just think of like this, they're already at 81 wins. We're trying to contrive a way to get to 87, while they're already sitting at 81. Plus, along with it you need the Cubs to do poorly, which as you said since Cubs/Cards play each other so much one of them is getting a W each time.

But yea, get your 3/4 vs Miami and a sweep this weekend and all of a sudden you've gone from next to impossible up to "hey this wouldn't be that crazy to happen"


Last edited by tmwiese55 on September 09, 2019, 12:39 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 12:37 PM Post
Posts: 4979
Location: New Berlin, WI
Don't sleep on the diamondbacks, by the way. They won 8 of their last 10 including 3 of 4 vs the Dodgers. They also have possibly an easier schedule than us down the stretch. 6 vs SD, 3 vs Cin, 3 vs Mia...then 2 tough ones with the Mets and Cards.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 6:14 PM Post
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Sweep the Marlins and the Cardinals... that's my hope.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 9:25 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
6-2 record in Craigtember.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 9:32 PM Post
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The Brewers finishing the regular season on a 23-game winning streak is going to make the 2007 Rockies look like total chumps.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 09, 2019, 9:38 PM Post
Posts: 2891
Eye Black said:
The Brewers finishing the regular season on a 23-game winning streak is going to make the 2007 Rockies look like total chumps.


Ha, at first I did a double take, thinking I was in the optimism thread.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 10, 2019, 6:41 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Don't sleep on the diamondbacks, by the way. They won 8 of their last 10 including 3 of 4 vs the Dodgers. They also have possibly an easier schedule than us down the stretch. 6 vs SD, 3 vs Cin, 3 vs Mia...then 2 tough ones with the Mets and Cards.


How is their schedule easier than ours?
We both play cincy
We both play Miami but we get one more game - advantage brewers
We both play the cards
We both play the Padres but they get two more games. We essentially swap those extra two Padres games for the Rockies - advantage brewers
They play 4 vs the Mets and we get the Pirates instead - huge advantage brewers


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 10, 2019, 8:53 PM Post
Posts: 11435
People are going to go complete doomsday, but I think the Brewers can still make the postseason. Yelich is one guy and there isn’t much season left...he could have OPSd’ .800 the rest of the year for all we know. Small sample results can get fluky, the rest of the season is a small sample.

His main replacement has an OPS north of 1.000 the last week, you just don’t know...much like Ace Lyles has been with us.

Don’t get me wrong I’d much rather have Yelich healthy, but he is one guy. They are 11-7 without him this year. That is 99 win pace if you are curious. He is not the magical man worth 20 wins like it is made out to be sometimes. We can and have won without him.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 10, 2019, 9:12 PM Post
Posts: 2891
MrTPlush said:
People are going to go complete doomsday, but I think the Brewers can still make the postseason. Yelich is one guy and there isn’t much season left...he could have OPSd’ .800 the rest of the year for all we know. Small sample results can get fluky, the rest of the season is a small sample.

His main replacement has an OPS north of 1.000 the last week, you just don’t know...much like Ace Lyles has been with us.

Don’t get me wrong I’d much rather have Yelich healthy, but he is one guy. They are 11-7 without him this year. That is 99 win pace if you are curious. He is not the magical man worth 20 wins like it is made out to be sometimes. We can and have won without him.


Agree 100%.
This is a team that wins late in the year, every year under Stearns. It’s a September team. They have a tremendous amount of underperforming talent that since the day before September has been performing like their talent suggests we should. These injuries to Hiura Woodruff Moose Pina Braun Cain should have kept us from winning, but haven’t, and now this injury to Yelich won’t either. We have good players, AAA players that have given the team a burst of energy, solid starters and a massive bullpen that the skipper of our massive pen can mix and match with the best em. We will overcome, and it’ll feel that much better when we do.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: September 10, 2019, 9:43 PM Post
Posts: 4436
I think the brewers wind up dusting the cubs in the standings down the stretch despite losing yelich - the cubs are also walking wounded and their pitching is in worse shape than the brewers. to me the question becomes whether they hold off the dbacks and phillies for that second wildcard spot.

I now have a very difficult time thinking the division title is still up for grabs, though.


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