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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#41

Posted: April 30, 2019, 2:10 AM Post
Posts: 4402
So, looked at the Standings. Cubs are ahead of us by pct. points since they've played less games than Milw. How many? 4! I only see one postponement so the schedule makers just gave them extra days off. Same with Pittsburgh. And our May while having 4 days off, it's only 1 til the 20th, so we'll be 4 games played ahead, if not 5, by the time May 20th comes. The nice thing at that point is, I see Pitt makes up their PPD in a 4 game series vs Cin before hosting us for 4 games. We should be well rested while they are on fumes with 5 games in 4 days.

Oh and the talk of April's schedule being brutal, it's still brutal up until that May 20th day off. Schedule looks so much easier from that point through July's Trade Deadline. Getting through this stretch above .500, we'll be in great position to start playing .660 ball and climb the standings.

Tampa is doing something odd in that they've started Ryan Stanek now 6 games going 1 or 2 innings. Then pitching a long man and completing the final 2 or 3 innings normally. Stanek has also made 7 other bullpen appearances. Glasnow is 5-0 in 6 starts under 2 ERA still.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#42

Posted: April 30, 2019, 7:17 AM Post
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One of the benefits overall to having a roof on Miller Park is you've got 81 guaranteed games that won't be rescheduled due to weather. It always seems like the Brewers play a pretty heavy slate of games with fewer scheduled offdays in April/May, too - I'm sure schedule makers take advantage of a midwest team not have to play weather roulette in spring.

It's tough now, but it preserves the much needed days off down the stretch.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#43

Posted: April 30, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
Tampa is doing something odd in that they've started Ryan Stanek now 6 games going 1 or 2 innings. Then pitching a long man and completing the final 2 or 3 innings normally. Stanek has also made 7 other bullpen appearances.


NOT SUSTAINABLE!!!!

Apparently Tampa isn't afraid to get creative.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#44

Posted: May 04, 2019, 9:52 AM Post
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In the OP we had a 46% chance of making the playoffs per 538.

As of today we have a 43% chance of making the playoffs per 538.

So, for as horrendously as we have played to begin the season, our playoff odds have changed negligibly.

For a little more context, here is a Jeff Sullivan article from June of last year which takes a look at which of 1st half actual results, 1st half pythagorean results & 2nd half projected results is better at predicting 2nd half results...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to ... cond-half/

tl,dr version (though I highly recommend reading it as Sullivan was snatched up by the Rays) is that even half way through the season, the projections still do a much better job at predicting 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual results or 1st half pythagorean results.

& that is 50% through the season, we are currently about 21% through the season.

I know projections are a dirty word for some around here, so if you prefer, what you thought of the team entering the season is likely still more informative of their future results than what has transpired thus far.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#45

Posted: May 04, 2019, 9:57 AM Post
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Right now we have played all contending, elite type teams in NL (besides maybe Reds) as long as we can stay above or around .500 until end of May we should be able to make big run in June/July when our schedule is almost all the bottom half of the league.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#46

Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:18 AM Post
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If you extrapolate each NL Central team based solely on current winning percentage here is the pace every team is on:

Cardinals - 98 wins
Cubs - 97 wins
Brewers - 88 wins
Pirates - 82 wins
Reds - 69 wins


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#47

Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:45 AM Post
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The Brewers are 3 Games back of the Best Record in Baseball. As negative as this team can feel, and the opponents they've faced, they are well within reach being the best team in Baseball.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#48

Posted: May 07, 2019, 9:39 PM Post
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Crazy that the Cubs have played 5 fewer games than the Brewers only ~6 weeks into the season...they're in the midst of 10 straight days with games right now before their next off day, then their rest of May and June is kind of absurd - 16 straight days with games, 1 day off, then 17 more straight days with games, 1 day off, then 17 more straight days with games. Then a 2 game set against the White Sox and it's the AS break already. I think one of those long stretches is due to a makeup game scheduled, but that's still nuts.

Brewers will be getting 8 days off compared to the Cubs' 3 assuming no rainouts during this same stretch - scheduling is by no means easy and all teams have ebbs and flows where there are tougher stretches of games that put strain on a roster...but there's got to be a way to even rest days out across the league. MLB might never want to go for it because it may seem like sacrilege to not have at least a few ballgames played every day of the year from April-September - but I wonder if building in a set amount of leaguewide offdays into the schedule would make sense. I'd think it'd be easier to schedule makeup games that way, and it should help even out the schedule overall.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#49

Posted: May 07, 2019, 10:32 PM Post
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Remember when we started 8-2 and felt like world-beaters? Then we sank and felt like crap? Well, we're back to 6 games over .500.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#50

Posted: May 15, 2019, 5:52 AM Post
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A few observations 26+% in:

- the Dodgers are the best team in Baseball, astros right behind them, followed by the Brewers, Cubbies, Cardinals.

- The 2 wild card teams will be the Cubbies and Cardinals

- No idea who the other playoff team will be between the Braves Phillies or Mets. Probably going with the best manager > Braves


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#51

Posted: May 15, 2019, 6:16 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
A few observations 26+% in:

- the Dodgers are the best team in Baseball, astros right behind them, followed by the Brewers, Cubbies, Cardinals.

- The 2 wild card teams will be the Cubbies and Cardinals

- No idea who the other playoff team will be between the Braves Phillies or Mets. Probably going with the best manager > Braves


While they may not keep it up the Twins deserve to be in the discussion right now. They have one of the best offenses in baseball and while their pitching isnt great they do have a young ace. The Rays, Yankees and Boston should all be in the discussion too. All those teams have a run differential of plus 20 or more


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#52

Posted: May 15, 2019, 6:34 AM Post
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jjfanec said:
Brew crew 92 said:
A few observations 26+% in:

- the Dodgers are the best team in Baseball, astros right behind them, followed by the Brewers, Cubbies, Cardinals.

- The 2 wild card teams will be the Cubbies and Cardinals

- No idea who the other playoff team will be between the Braves Phillies or Mets. Probably going with the best manager > Braves


While they may not keep it up the Twins deserve to be in the discussion right now. They have one of the best offenses in baseball and while their pitching isnt great they do have a young ace. The Rays, Yankees and Boston should all be in the discussion too. All those teams have a run differential of plus 20 or more


Ok, here’s my power rankings:
1.) Dodgers > ridiculous depth separates
2.) Astros > Great hitting team
3.) Brewers > Team only going to get better
4.) Cardinals > bullpen could get scary good
5.) Cubbies > bullpen & lack of depth hurt
6.) Rays > great front office
7.) Yankees > injuries sminjuries
8.) Twins > not as good as they appear


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#53

Posted: May 15, 2019, 6:52 AM Post
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Miller Park is such an advantage in this division as long as rivals have open air stadiums.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#54

Posted: May 15, 2019, 9:19 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Miller Park is such an advantage in this division as long as rivals have open air stadiums.


Absolutely, very good chance the Cubs wear out down the stretch again. The Cubs have 2 off days between now and July 5th. 50 games in 52 days...barring one of their classic "rain-out/rest days" when it's 68 and sunny. That's a busy stretch.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#55

Posted: May 15, 2019, 2:40 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Miller Park is such an advantage in this division as long as rivals have open air stadiums.


Absolutely, very good chance the Cubs wear out down the stretch again. The Cubs have 2 off days between now and July 5th. 50 games in 52 days...barring one of their classic "rain-out/rest days" when it's 68 and sunny. That's a busy stretch.


That is without any rain delays making it more games during that stretch. They could easily have a couple double headers or those two days used to make up games.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#56

Posted: May 16, 2019, 5:42 AM Post
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The Brewers are now 10-2 against the NL East with four more versus foes from the East over the next four days. With none of those games being against the Marlins yet the Brewers are setup nicely to own the East this season.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#57

Posted: May 16, 2019, 6:59 AM Post
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Which is impressive considering the relatively high expectations for 3 of the teams in that division.....


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#58

Posted: May 16, 2019, 7:07 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Which is impressive considering the relatively high levels of unsubstantiated hype for 3 of the teams in that division.....


I fixed this [wink] There was a lot of East Coast bias surrounding those teams before this season. I'd say 4 teams were getting pretty major hype.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#59

Posted: May 16, 2019, 7:12 AM Post
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Probably not unfair. I think the Phils are legit, though. And the Mets continue to underperform their amazing rotation.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#60

Posted: May 16, 2019, 7:27 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Probably not unfair. I think the Phils are legit, though. And the Mets continue to underperform their amazing rotation.


The Phils have all the talent, but so much of that team has turned over, I just wonder how long it's going to take for them to gel. They are the current guinea pig for if buying your way to a championship is feasible in today's MLB economic climate.


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